Setting the Stage – Bad Year or Broken Team?
The Tennessee Titans' unbroken run of market-beating success under head coach Mike Vrabel was snapped in dramatic fashion in the second half of the 2022 season. After a promising 7-3 start, the team lost their last seven games, culminating in a decisive road defeat against the Jacksonville Jaguars, costing them the AFC South division title. This tailspin, described by the team's safety, Kevin Byard, as "embarrassing," was more than just a slump; it was a full-fledged breakdown, marking a stark departure from Vrabel's consistent success in his first four seasons as an NFL Head Coach. In the midst of their slide, the Titans made immediate changes to the franchise, firing their longtime GM Jon Robinson who had overseen the franchise's personnel moves since 2016. With first-year GM Ran Carthon now in place, the power dynamic has clearly shifted to Mike Vrabel, who is firmly in charge of revamping the franchise.
Offensively, concerns are mounting around key players like quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who joined the team in 2019 and replaced then-starter Marcus Mariota in Week 7 of that season. The former Texas A&M Aggie has recorded a strong 38-22 SU (Straight Up) record as the Titans' starter; however, this includes a less-than-stellar 2-3 record in the playoffs. The lackluster record is highlighted by a notable three-interception outing in the team's final game of the 2021 season, as the Titans bowed out to the eventual AFC Champion Bengals 19-16. Against Joe Burrow and the Bengals that day, Tannehill recorded a 12.8 QBR, placing him below the 13th percentile among quarterbacks on a 1-100 scale. In such a close loss, Vrabel and Titans fans alike cannot help but consider the possibility that with a solid quarterback performance that day, it likely would have been the Titans to advance and earn a chance to knock the Chiefs out in the 2021 AFC Championship Game. It could have been the Titans to take on the Rams in that year's Super Bowl.
In the regular season, as well, Tannehill's performance has notably waned over the past two seasons, and with a $36.6M cap hit in 2023, second only to Patrick Mahomes, the pressure is certainly on. Adding to the intrigue are the consecutive selections of quarterbacks for the Titans in the past two NFL drafts. 2022 draftee, Malik Willis and 2023 draftee, Will Levis both wait in the wings to potentially take over the starting role. Willis, a third-round pick in last year's draft, has impressed with his growth since last season, while Levis, a second-round pick in this most recent draft, has shown promising flashes, despite some concerns over his penchant for interceptions in college.
One reason the quarterback position has been the subject of much scrutiny for the Titans is the eventuality that at some point Tennessee will no longer run a "Derrick-Henry"-offense. The prolific running back has rushed for an astounding 6042 yards in his past four seasons with the team, leading the league while maintaining a stellar 4.8 yards per rush attempt. Despite this astonishing record, Henry, who will turn thirty years old this season, is approaching age and an RB odometer where a decline could be imminent. Furthermore, the offensive line was ranked dead last (32nd) by Pro Football Focus (PFF) this offseason, marking the second season in a row that the Titans have entered with a bottom-five O-Line unit according to PFF’s metrics. The potential decline of this once-dominant ground attack amplifies the importance of the passing game, where the addition of DeAndre Hopkins may only achieve limited success if quarterbacks Tannehill, Willis, or Levis are constantly under pressure.
The significant signing of Free Agent WR DeAndre Hopkins was a beacon of hope for the Titans and moved the needle in the Vegas betting markets. Agreeing to terms with the three-time First-Team All-Pro wide receiver on a two-year, $26 million contract, the Titans made a bold move by outbidding other contenders for his services. While this acquisition didn't shift their Super Bowl odds much, there has been a noticeable uptick in the team’s Season Win Total, as bettors now have to pay extra vigorish to wager for the Titans to win more than 7.5 games.
The Titans' defense, a stronghold under head coach Mike Vrabel's guidance, also showed signs of vulnerability last season. While a complete collapse of the defense seems unlikely given Vrabel's expertise, it's clear that relying solely on the defense won't be sufficient to turn the tide, especially if the run game becomes less productive or less reliable.
As the Titans prepare for the 2023 season, all eyes will be on how they address their offensive shortcomings, capitalize on their strengths, and whether the addition of Hopkins will be the catalyst that helps them regain their competitive edge. Whether they can overcome the shadow of last season's collapse and make one more run with Derrick Henry remains to be seen, but the Titans have proven that they can win, and under Vrabel's leadership, they have the intention of winning more.
Pregame.com's Dave Essler & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Tennesse Titans 2023 season.
The Betting Landscape: TEN Titans
The Tennessee Titans' betting landscape has been a fluctuating journey this offseason, reflecting uncertainties but also showing some signs of optimism.
The Titans began the 2023 offseason with Super Bowl odds of 63/1, according to Pregame.com's consensus of seven sportsbooks. However, they have been downgraded to now sit at 80/1 to win the Super Bowl, placing them 24th out of the 32 NFL teams.
Looking at the Super Bowl Odds of all the AFC South teams illustrates how the division lacks many serious title contenders.
Super Bowl Odds of Four AFC South Teams (consensus odds as of August 22nd):
JAX Jaguars: 30 to 1 (12th in the NFL)
TEN Titans: 80 to 1 (24th in the NFL)
IND Colts: 125 to 1 (30th)
HOU Texans: 200 to 1 (31st)
Albeit with a member that only started in 2002 in the Texans, the AFC South has the fewest number of Super Bowl championships among their teams with only the 2007 Indianapolis Colts with Peyton Manning and the 1971 Baltimore Colts with Johnny Unitas claiming the award.
The Titans' Win Total has been a telling tale of the market's mixed reactions. Originally in March, the Vegas market set the Titans over/under at 7.5, with equal vigorish on the Over and the Under. The market soured on Tennessee through the NFL draft and their selection of QB Will Levis in the second round. By July, bettors had to pay -130 vigorish to bet the Under, indicating a Vegas projection of ~7.3 Wins. However, the signing of WR DeAndre Hopkins prompted sportsbooks to immediately reset the number at 7.5 "flat" (or -110 in either direction).
This bold move saw the Titans outbid the New England Patriots for the All-Pro wideout, agreeing to a two-year deal that will pay Hopkins up to $15 million in the first season. The acquisition addresses the Titans' need for an elite pass catcher, which they have missed since trading away WR AJ Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles during the 2022 NFL Draft. Hopkins immediately steps in as the No. 1 target for Ryan Tannehill.
The betting market continued to respond positively to the move in the weeks following the trade, as money has flowed in on the Titans Over for their Win Total, shifting their consensus odds to -120 for Over 7.5 wins. The decision by Mike Vrabel, a Belichick disciple who played for him in New England for eight years and won three Super Bowls, underscores Tennessee's aggressive approach to bolstering their offensive firepower.
TEN Titans Win Total (consensus odds as of August 22nd):
Over 7.5 (-120)
Under 7.5 (100)
Mike Vrabel's teams are 4-1 to the Over vs. their Vegas season win totals, going over on average by +1.1 wins per season since he started as Head Coach during the 2018 NFL season.
Vrabel has also earned the distinction of being the first Titan to repeat as an AFC South champion. In 2020 and 2021 the Titans won consecutive AFC South championships for the first time under the current alignment of 8 divisions, which started in 2002. It was the first time the franchise had defended their division championship, as the last time they had done so they were the Houston Oilers of the AFL (American Football League) in 1961 & 1962. However, times have changed, and the ascendence of Trevor Lawrence has flipped the power dynamic of the division. After the Titans lost out on a third consecutive division crown on the final game of the season last year, the market has installed them as significant longshots to topple the reigning champion Jaguars for this year's division title.
AFC South Odds (Consensus as of August 22nd):
JAX Jaguars: -175
TEN Titans: +340
IND Colts: +600
HOU Texans: +850
The Titans' playoff prospects seem more on the challenging side this season. The current odds imply they will make the playoffs less than one third of simulations:
Will the Titans Make the Playoffs?
Yes: +210 (~30% implied odds),
No: -250 (~70% implied odds)
Vrabel's teams have made the post-season in three of his five seasons as head coach.
The Tennessee Titans are on a complex path, with market sentiments expressing uncertainty but not ruling out the possibility of a rewarding season. The signing of DeAndre Hopkins has brought some positive vibes, but the odds remain on the cautious side. The Titans still have a rich talent pool, with players like RB Derrick Henry and FS Kevin Byard. But the competition is fierce, and the Titans will need to be at their best to make it back to the postseason.
Week 1 Showdown
As the 2023 NFL season is about to kick off, the Titans are prepping to face the New Orleans Saints on their turf at Caesars Superdome. This opening match will set the tone for both teams, who come into the new campaign with distinct challenges and points to prove.
The Titans were introduced as +3.5 underdogs in the opening odds for this game when the schedule was released in May. That line was gradually adjusted to +3 at various sportsbooks, driven by strong backing on Tennessee. This coincided with Saints RB Alvin Kamara receiving a three-game suspension and the Titans acquiring WR DeAndre Hopkins.
As of August 23rd, many books have reverted to +3.5, although there are notable differences among bookmakers. Westgate, which moved from +3.5 to +3 on July 16th—the day that WR DeAndre Hopkins signed with Tennessee—gradually reversed course and now offers TEN +3.5 (Flat, -110). South Point across town, who opened at Titans +3.5, moved to +3 on the same day and have yet to change their odds off that key number, enabling Saints backers to take advantage of NOR -3 at -110 odds. Meanwhile, DraftKings has fluctuated between +3.5 and +3 all summer and currently sits at +3.5 (-115), indicating a modest adjustment towards the Titans.
The current consensus odds have settled at Tennessee +3.5 (-115), meaning bettors favoring Tennessee must pay slightly more vigorish to secure that vital half-point. These variations in the spread reflect both the fluctuating perception of the Titans' standing and the strategic opportunities available to savvy bettors.
The Saints, under the guidance of quarterback Derek Carr, have clear advantages in this matchup. Carr's experienced arm, along with receiving talents like Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, will likely exploit the Titans' weak passing defense that ranked 28th in Pass Defense DVOA in the NFL in 2022. Even though Alvin Kamara is suspended for this game, New Orleans still presents a considerable offensive challenge.
For the Titans, the uncertainty surrounding their quarterback situation presents both an opportunity and a risk. Ryan Tannehill is expected to start the season as QB1, but Will Levis' drafting suggests a changing of the guard may be on the horizon. Regardless, the Titans' primary weapon, Derrick 'King' Henry, will undoubtedly be a focal point for the Saints' defensive game planning. The Saints’ sixth-ranked pass defense DVOA from last season will likely contain the Titans' passing game, placing even more pressure on Henry's shoulders.
The Titans' defense, which notably struggled last season and finished 28th in pass defense DVOA, is another area that could be exploited by the Saints' passing game. Though they emphasized defense in the offseason, it’s unclear how immediate the impact will be, particularly against a rejuvenated Saints offense.
Bettors may be weighing the Titans' offensive uncertainties and the Saints' defensive prowess, as the total for this game has dropped from O/U 42 at open to O/U 41 by current consensus odds. The Titans might have to approach 20 points in this contest for the game to go over the total, a threshold they failed to achieve in 10 out of their last 12 games in 2022.
This Week 1 showdown between the Titans and the Saints presents a host of intriguing narratives. The Titans, with their defensive concerns and quarterback quandaries, will have their work cut out for them against a Saints team eager to capitalize on their new offensive assets. Betting trends suggest confidence in the Saints' ability to secure a victory by more than one field goal, and the matchup's dynamics make the Under a compelling choice for Under bettors. The game sets up as an engaging kickoff to the 2023 season, with both teams eager to make a definitive statement out of the gate.
Player Spotlights
Ryan Tannehill (QB)
Over/Under 3050.5 Passing Yards
The betting market seems to be pricing in factors like injury risk and potential replacement, as rookies like Levis and Willis wait for their chance. Despite Tannehill missing on average one game per season since arriving at Tennessee, his four-year average with the Titans is 3,207.8 yards per year. If he maintains his average of 225.1 passing yards per game, he would be expected to surpass 3,800 yards should he play all 17 games. Tannehill's history and Tennessee's run-first offense might make this total seem cautious, but it's worth considering the dynamics in play. Keeping an eye on Tannehill's health and performance will be key for bettors.
Derrick Henry (RB)
Over/Under 1150.5 Rushing Yards
150-to-1 to win NFL MVP
30-to-1 to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year
Derrick Henry, the Titans' dominant running back, is expected to continue being a force in the league, but the betting market is acknowledging the potential impact of age as he turns 30 this season. In recent years, Vegas listed Henry with a much higher rushing yards Over/Under, including a staggering prop of O/U 1500.5 rushing yards ahead of the 2021 NFL season. This figure dropped to O/U 1350.5 yards ahead of the 2022 season.
Despite these high expectations, Henry has delivered more often than not, going over his rushing prop in four out of the last five seasons (80% cash rate on the over). Averaging 1420.2 rushing yards per season during this period, Henry's ability to defy expectations will be an intriguing storyline to watch.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR)
Over/Under 850.5 Receiving Yards
The newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins adds excitement to the Titans' passing game. With an average of 1129.8 receiving yards over his 10-season NFL career, an Over/Under set at 850.5 might seem low. However, last season's violation of the league's performance-enhancing drugs policy and subsequent release from Arizona could have influenced the market's caution. If Hopkins plays all 17 games and maintains even a modest 50 receiving yards per game, he should surpass this total. The lowest Hopkins has averaged in his career is 50.1 yards per game during his rookie season. This prop could offer value for those looking at the Titans' receiving game, but bettors must assess Hopkins' integration into the team and potential risks.
The Titans' 2023 season will be an interesting blend of proven talents and new dynamics. With the continued efficiency of Tannehill, the relentless rushing power of Henry, and the added intrigue of Hopkins in the receiving corps, the Titans are poised to make noise in the AFC. However, the betting market's somewhat conservative approach to these players reflects the uncertainties surrounding age, injury, and integration. As always, wise bettors will need to monitor these factors closely and adjust their strategies as the season unfolds.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Tennessee Titans embarked on a significant transition this offseason, taking deliberate steps to change the direction of their franchise. They have prioritized strategic moves, both in the front office and on the field, to enhance their prospects for the upcoming season.
The Titans kicked off their transformation by hiring Ran Carthon as the new general manager. Coming from the San Francisco 49ers, Carthon's background in scouting and executive roles, along with his connections in the league, adds a new dimension to the front office and marks an essential part of the Titans' new direction.
Carthon's first NFL draft as Titans GM saw him echo what outgoing GM Jon Robinson did in his final draft in charge: select a QB on the second day of the draft. More than simply selecting a QB, the Titans boldly traded up to the first pick in the second round to choose Kentucky's Will Levis at 33, a year after the team selected Liberty QB Malik Willis in the third round. Although Levis's time at Kentucky was marked by a lack of high-quality throws, resulting in a middling 65.8 PFF passing grade, his strong arm and quick release offer promise.
Elsewhere in the NFL Draft, the Titans focused on revamping their offensive line. The acquisition of offensive tackle, Peter Skoronski in the first round has generated excitement among analysts and fans. As mentioned, the Titans' offensive line was ranked dead last by Pro Football Focus this offseason. Skoronski's experience and technique make him a versatile asset, able to play tackle or potentially move inside to guard. His skill set presents options for the Titans, having allowed only six pressures on 474 pass-blocking snaps at Northwestern.
Another draft highlight includes the addition of RB Tyjae Spears, whose playing style profiles as a nice complement to Derrick Henry in Tennessee's backfield.
Perhaps the Titans' biggest splash of the offseason came late in the process, adding a potential WR#1 just before the start of training camp. Winning the bidding war with the Patriots, the Titans signed three-time First-Team All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to a two-year, $26 million contract. Hopkins' arrival could be a game-changer, adding depth and experience to the Titans' receiving corps. His signing affected the Vegas betting markets, with immediate shifts in Week 1 odds against the Saints and an uptick in the team's projected win total for the season.
The Titans' offseason moves combine strategic drafting with bold free-agency decisions. By focusing on key areas of need, such as their offensive line and receiving corps, and acquiring notable names like Hopkins, they've positioned themselves for potential success in the new season. The integration of new talent, both on the field and in the front office, illustrates the Titans' intent to compete at the highest level. Whether these offseason strategies translate into on-field triumphs remains an intriguing storyline to follow.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The Tennessee Titans, a team that once loomed large as an AFC contender, find themselves in a state of reflection and reassessment as they evaluate their 2022 campaign. In a season that ended with the echo of lost opportunities and a stunning 7-game losing streak, the Titans' once promising prospect dimmed to a finish that raised eyebrows and questions alike. The details that unfold through the advanced metrics and power ratings are both intriguing and sobering.
Beginning with the Titans' Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a metric that evaluates a team's efficiency by comparing its performance to the league average on a play-by-play basis, their ranking at 23rd underscores a year that did not meet early-season expectations. The team's struggles were further amplified in the Weighted DVOA, which places greater emphasis on their more recent games, positioning them at an even lower 25th. The absence of starting QB Ryan Tannehill during four of those losses undoubtedly impacted this decline, but the numbers reveal a more intricate and pervasive issue.
Breaking down the DVOA further, the offensive and defensive aspects offer nuanced insights. The Titans ranked 21st in Offensive DVOA and 19th on defense, delineating a team that struggled to find consistency on either side of the ball. These numbers serve as a testament to a season where neither unit could rise to the occasion and dominate as expected.
The NFL Elo (NFELO) ranking placed the Titans at a disappointing 28th, marking them as -4.9 points worse than an average team. Even when the absence of Tannehill is factored into their ranking, their position improves only to a tie for 25th. This mild adjustment further demonstrates that their issues ran deeper than just the loss of a key player.
Kevin Cole's power rating analysis adds another perspective to this scenario, ranking the Titans as the fourth worst team in the NFL, at -4.03 points worse than an average team. A closer look at the offense and defense through Cole's lens paints an even grimmer portrait, with the offense at 30th (-3.67 points of value per game) and the defense at 21st (-0.35 points). These rankings depict a team grappling with underperformance across the board, and especially on offense.
As the Titans move forward, the power ratings from 2022 stand as a candid evaluation of where they fell short. The combination of the DVOA, NFELO, and Cole's rankings provides a comprehensive view of a team that lost its way during the latter part of the season, failing to capitalize on its earlier potential. The metrics highlight not only the stark reality of the Titans' descent but also emphasize the multifaceted challenges they must overcome as they aim for resurgence. The 2022 season, though disheartening, offers a valuable lesson in the complex interplay between expectations, performance, and adaptation in the NFL landscape.
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