Setting the Stage for the LV Raiders 2023 Season
The Las Vegas Raiders, along with the Washington Commanders, have been the most downgraded teams over the course of the offseason in 2023 by the Las Vegas market. In the Raiders' case, it is puzzling to consider why they are expected to win one fewer game in August than when the bookmakers set the opening lines in March.
In 2022, the Raiders faced a tumultuous campaign that saw them fall under their win total for the first time when based in the city of Las Vegas, winning only 6 games versus a Vegas Win Total of O/U 8.5. Under the offensive guidance of new head coach Josh McDaniels, there were flashes of brilliance last year, but they were intertwined with inconsistency and frustration. A slew of blown leads, coaching mishaps, and the eventual sidelining of Derek Carr culminated in a disappointing finish.
The offseason saw the arrival of Jimmy Garoppolo, reuniting him with Coach Josh McDaniels, whom he played for in New England. Garoppolo succeeds Derek Carr, who had set many Raiders' passing records and earned 4 Pro Bowl trips in his nine seasons as the Raiders' starter since 2014.
The transition has been far from smooth. Garoppolo's initial failure of his Raiders' physical, his foot surgery, and the ensuing addendum in his contract, not to mention initial conflict with star receiver Davante Adams, have created a sense of uncertainty around the Raiders' offense. At that point, Vegas expected Las Vegas to win more than 7 games by consensus numbers from Pregame.com. While it has been a gradual decline, Vegas currently expects the Raiders to win just over 6 games, with the Under 6.5 bet priced at (-140).
Garoppolo, a 31-year-old veteran with a substantial injury history, brings a new dynamic to the team. Under McDaniels, he has the potential to reignite the offensive spark that the Raiders have occasionally flashed. The new quarterback's experience with the "Patriot Way" under Belichick, as well as his recent mentorship of young talents like Trey Lance and Brock Purdy, make his role within the Raiders multifaceted.
However, questions linger. The apparent infatuation of McDaniels with former Patriots players and the bold decision to move on from Carr without tangible return raise eyebrows. McDaniels' second season at the helm of the Raiders presents him with the challenge to demonstrate lessons learned from previous coaching stints, and the Garoppolo decision will be a key indicator of his evolved philosophy or a repeat of old mistakes. It's worth noting that McDaniels has never had a winning season in three years as an NFL head coach, posting a career 17-28 SU (21-24 ATS) record, which further underscores the importance of his decisions this season.
Additions such as Jakobi Meyers and draft picks like defensive end Tyree Wilson and tight end Michael Mayer show a concerted effort to bolster both offense and defense. Yet, concerns about defensive depth and Garoppolo's fitness remain. The Raiders have offensive firepower in Josh Jacobs and Adams, but cohesion and consistent leadership will be key factors in translating individual brilliance into team success.
As the Raiders embark on this new era, the spotlight will be firmly on McDaniels and Garoppolo. The intrigue of their relationship, the adaptation of key players to new roles, and the handling of defensive challenges will provide a compelling narrative for fans and the betting community alike.
The decisions made and the execution on the field will determine whether the Raiders' offseason moves are a strategic advancement towards playoff contention or a misguided gambit that echoes past failures. The stage is set, and the drama in Las Vegas promises to be captivating, without an obvious script in sight.
Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Las Vas Raiders 2023 Win Total of Over/Under 6.5.
The Betting Landscape
The Raiders are facing doubts in the betting market as their Super Bowl odds have seen a notable decline since first opening. Once standing at 40/1 per Pregame.com's consensus of seven sportsbooks in February, their prospects have now dwindled to 85/1, positioning them as the 25th favorite among the 32 NFL teams.
This slide in odds extends beyond their Super Bowl chances; it also reflects growing uncertainty towards their regular season performance. Vegas initially placed the Raiders' over/under at 7 wins with vigorish on the Over, projecting roughly 7.2 wins. Now, this number has decreased to an Over/Under of 6.5, with the market distinctly leaning towards the Under at -140 odds (~6.2 wins).
LV Raiders Win Total (consensus odds as of August 22nd):
Over 6.5 (+100)
Under 6.5 (-140)
With the AFC West sporting an average win total of nearly 10 games for the division's other three contenders, the Raiders' task is formidable. The divisional odds provide additional insights into their uphill battle:
AFC West Odds (consensus odds as of August 22nd):
KC Chiefs: -175
LA Chargers: +300
DEN Broncos: +600
LV Raiders: 15/1
The challenge becomes more discernible when evaluating the playoff odds, with the Raiders at +380 (~19% implied odds) to make the playoffs and -475 (~81% implied odds) to miss them.
Will the Raiders Make the Playoffs?
Yes: +380 (~19%)
No: -475 (~81%)
The Raiders, who haven't reached the AFC Divisional Round since their Super Bowl loss in 2002, face persistent hurdles, particularly in competing against Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. With the longest odds to reach the postseason in the AFC, the route appears more difficult for them when compared to teams with similar or slightly lesser win totals in less competitive divisions. The Houston Texans, for instance, with a parallel win expectation, are +850 to take the more accessible AFC South, while the Raiders are given twice the payout to conquer the formidable AFC West.
This striking disparity in expectations and the current betting landscape portrays a Raiders team confronting substantial challenges. Situated in a competitive division, with waning confidence in their win total, and against formidable odds to make progress in the postseason, the Raiders' 2023 season seems set for a strenuous climb. To turn the tide in Sin City, both Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh McDaniels must navigate their underdog roles successfully.
Week 1 Showdown
The Las Vegas Raiders are poised to kick off the 2023 NFL season with a classic AFC West duel against their bitter rivals, the Denver Broncos. Scheduled for Sunday, September 10th, this Week 1 contest will unfold at the Broncos' home ground, sparking the beginning of an anticipated transitional year for the Raiders.
The opening odds for this matchup had the Raiders as +3.5 underdogs against the Broncos, with an Over/Under set at 44. The current line has slightly widened, now placing the Raiders at +4 (O/U 44). The market variation has been seen between books that have +4.5 and +4, though since 4 is not a key number, it's less likely to make a critical difference in betting strategy.
Since 1989 the Broncos have won 17 of 21 Week 1 home openers. They have an excellent 13-5-3 ATS record over that span. Due to this success, the Vegas betting market now considers the Broncos to have an excellent home-field advantage in this spot and adjusts accordingly. Notably, the last three Broncos Home openers in 2017, 2018, and 2020 have pushed against the final closing spread:
2017: Broncos -3 hosting Chargers, won 24-21 (push)
2018: Broncos -3 hosting Seahawks, won: 27-24 (push)
2020: Broncos -2 hosting Titans, won 16-14 (push)
Historically, the Broncos have held a dominant position against the Raiders, with a six-game winning streak against them. Their last loss to the Raiders was a narrow 16-15 defensive win back in 2019. These stats reveal a tough backdrop for the Raiders, whose 2023 season is predicted to be one of transformation and challenge.
Adding to the intrigue, the Broncos have recently suffered a significant injury setback with wide receiver Jerry Jeudy expected to miss several weeks due to a hamstring injury. This injury has impacted the odds, with many books moving from DEN +4.5 to DEN +4, reflecting the growing uncertainty over Jeudy's availability for the season opener. This could prove a decisive factor in the game, leaving Courtland Sutton as the primary target for quarterback Russell Wilson.
On the Raiders' side, there's an air of optimism surrounding the team's performance in the preseason, where through two weeks they have outscored opponents 68-24. As they step into the 2023 season with fresh hopes and a roster that has seen substantial changes during the offseason, this Week 1 game presents a vital opportunity to make a strong statement. The matchup against the Broncos is just the beginning of a tough journey for the Raiders, with challenging games against teams like the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers on the horizon.
Denver's record against the AFC West in recent years has been a dismal chapter, particularly with a 15-straight loss against the Kansas City Chiefs. If new head coach Sean Payton is going to make an impact, it must start with a strong performance in Week 1 at home against their most despised rivals.
This Week 1 showdown transcends a mere seasonal opener. For the Broncos, it's a chance to build confidence and start the Sean Payton era on the right foot. For the Raiders, it's an opportunity to shake off the skepticism and set the tone for a surprise playoff push. The atmosphere will be electric, and the stakes are high, making this one of the must-watch games of the Week 1 schedule.
Player Spotlights
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB)
Over/Under 3300.5 Passing Yards
80-to-1 to win NFL MVP
Now wearing the Las Vegas Raiders jersey, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo's 5-year tenure as a starter since 2018 has been a turbulent ride, with only 50 regular season games played over that time span, an average of just 10 games per year. From the lost opportunity in 2018 during only his third game due to a torn ACL, to the foot injury last year that required offseason surgery, his path has been riddled with setbacks. These inconsistent seasons have cast doubt on his reputation as a franchise quarterback. Yet, with single-season career highs of 3,978 yards and 27 touchdowns, Garoppolo's potential brilliance cannot be overlooked. The 49ers' record-holder in several key statistics, he brings to the Raiders a proven skill set, one that could turn the tide for the team if he remains healthy.
Josh Jacobs (RB)
[No Over/Under Listed]
Josh Jacobs's situation is mired in uncertainty. Despite topping the league in rushing last year, Jacobs's holdout and mixed signals about his Week 1 availability leave question marks. The Raiders' coach has even hinted at a potential carry split with second-year reserve Zamir White. Jacobs's resolution with the team could reshape the Raiders' offensive scheme.
Davante Adams (WR)
30-to-1 to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year (tied for 9th favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Over/Under 1300.5 receiving yards
Davante Adams's back-to-back seasons of 1,500+ receiving yards have put him "in a league of his own," according to former QB Aaron Rodgers. As he enters his second year with the Raiders, Adams's 30-to-1 odds to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year and his budding chemistry with Garoppolo in training camp fuel high expectations. The Garoppolo-Adams connection could be a key to unlocking the Raiders' success.
The Las Vegas Raiders are on the brink of a defining season. With Garoppolo's health, Jacobs's contract situation, and the emerging Garoppolo-Adams duo under the spotlight, both sports bettors and fans have much to watch. These factors could chart the course for an exhilarating NFL season.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Las Vegas Raiders, facing a transition period with aspirations to steal more games than expected, embarked on a significant transformation this offseason. The moves were both bold and tactical, reshaping key aspects of the roster and signaling a fresh direction for the franchise. The Vegas market, however, has been less than impressed.
Before the arrival of head coach Josh McDaniels, the Raiders extended Derek Carr's contract, a decision that later came into question as the team's direction changed. During the season, it became clear that the relationship between Carr and McDaniels had soured, culminating in Carr's benching in favor of Jarrett Stidham. Carr's no-trade clause, part of the extension, further complicated the situation. When Carr informed the team that he would not accept a trade to any other franchise, his value to the organization tanked, forcing the Raiders to watch him walk as a free agent. This move opened the door for the Raiders to sign free-agent Jimmy Garoppolo, reflecting a significant shift at the quarterback position.
The second most notable move for the Raiders in free agency was the acquisition of WR Jakobi Meyers, who ranked as PFF's seventh-ranked free agent in their offseason rankings. He'll be a valuable addition to the receiving corps, adding depth and reliability to the passing game.
Retaining RB Josh Jacobs, the NFL's 2022 rushing leader with 1,653 yards, after his breakout season has been hailed by cites such as Pro Football Focus as a critical move that ensures stability and firepower in the running game. However, Jacobs' holdout for a new contract in line with his elite status complicates the situation, with Raiders General Manager Dave Ziegler expressing no updates on the negotiations, and the team seemingly content to let him sit out. Despite this impasse, Jacobs is expected to return to the team before the start of Week 1, although his readiness remains a concern.
Alongside Jacobs, the re-signing of OT Jermaine Eluemunor further strengthens the offensive line, and the potential of running back Zamir White, a fourth-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, adds depth to the backfield.
In the NFL Draft, the Raiders made an audacious selection with edge-rusher Tyree Wilson from Texas Tech at No. 7 overall. Wilson, who might have gone as high as No. 2 or 3 if not for foot injury concerns, provides incredible value at this spot. His physical traits, combined with a win rate of 37.1% on true pass sets in 2022, rank third in the class and signal a future cornerstone for the Raiders' defense. Pairing him with veteran edge rusher Maxx Crosby can create a formidable duo on the defensive front.
Other key draft picks include TE Michael Mayer, DI Byron Young, WR Tre Tucker, and QB Aidan O’Connell. O’Connell, selected in the fourth round, could represent a long-term developmental prospect at the quarterback position, with the potential to be a quality career backup or more.
One underrated aspect of the Raiders' offseason is the competition brewing on the defensive line, especially between newly re-signed Jerry Tillery and rookie Byron Young. Young's standout performance at Alabama last season, including 16 run stops and seven tackles for loss or no gain, and 33 total QB pressures, indicates that he could challenge for significant snaps.
The Las Vegas Raiders' 2023 offseason has been marked by various strategic moves, including trade attempts, draft picks, and free agency decisions. However, it's essential to note that Vegas's win total expectations have downgraded the Raiders by 1 win over the course of the offseason. The impact of these decisions on the upcoming season's success will be a key factor to monitor, but the betting market has shown a more conservative outlook on the team's prospects.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The Las Vegas Raiders find themselves in a position of challenge and potential growth as they look towards the 2023 season. Their performance in 2022, examined through advanced metrics and power ratings, paints a clear picture of their areas of strength and critical opportunities for improvement.
Analyzing the team using Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a metric that contrasts efficiency against league averages, reveals the Raiders' precarious standings:
Total DVOA: 26th
Weighted DVOA (which considers recent performances more heavily): 24th
Offensive DVOA: 17th
Defensive DVOA: 31st
These ratings highlight the Raiders' struggles, particularly on the defensive side. A glaring 31st ranking in Defensive DVOA underscores a pressing need for improvements, especially when faced with AFC West competitors like Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
The NFL Elo (NFELO) paints a similar picture, ranking the Raiders at 27th, a concerning -3.2 points worse than an average team. However, a note of intrigue emerges when the quarterback adjustment from Carr being benched in the final week is considered. This adjustment boosts the Raiders' rating to 19th, reflecting the tight competition in the middle-bottom tier of teams. Whether Jimmy Garoppolo will fill Carr's shoes or unlock additional value in the Raiders' offense with McDaniels remains an interesting question to be answered.
Kevin Cole's Power Ratings further emphasize the Raiders' predicaments:
Overall Ranking: 26th, -2.43 points worse than an average team
Offense Contribution: 20th, losing -0.37 points of value
Defense Contribution: 32nd, a worrying loss of -2.06 points of value
These metrics corroborate the pressing need for defensive reform. They also hint at an offense that, despite not being among the league's best, has shown flashes of potential. Cole's ranking of the offense at 20th, although not impressive, suggests room for growth.
Analytics have consistently demonstrated that offense in the NFL is more predictable year-over-year than defense. For the Raiders, this insight is particularly relevant; DVOA and other metrics from last season underscore a respectable offense, contrasting their underwhelming defense, which, being more unpredictable, may regress to the mean. As the Raiders prepare for the coming season with the pairing of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and head coach Josh McDaniels, a pressing question emerges: Will this be the first occurrence in four attempts for McDaniels to post a winning record as head coach? If so, it would be nothing new for Garoppolo, who has won an incredible 70% of his regular season games as an NFL starter. The fusion of their offensive talents, along with potential defensive improvements, might just set the stage for tangible success on the field in the coming season.
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