Setting the Stage
The 2023 Los Angeles Rams are currently undergoing a significant transformation after a disastrous 2022 season plagued by injuries and underperformance. Despite possessing exceptional players in crucial positions, the Rams are anticipated to struggle. Both the betting market and the wider football community perceive the Rams as a team in transition more than as a playoff contender, with the betting market even predicting a losing season for the Rams for the first time since Coach McVay’s first year as head coach. The pessimistic expectations stem from salary recalibrating and substantial changes in key positions. In the beginning of Free Agency, the Rams cleared $61.2M off their salary cap for the 2024 season by moving CB Jalen Ramsey, DE Leonard Floyd, and LB Bobby Wagner amongst others. While the Rams previously committed heavily to their salary cap strategy, resulting in a Super Bowl victory in 2021, eventually the credit card bill came due.
Despite the re-positioning, objectively speaking, the Rams still possess three potentially elite players each in one of the NFL's most valuable positions. Future Hall of Fame, quarterback Matthew Stafford, reportedly back to full health, remains a formidable force, while pass-rusher Aaron Donald continues to be the world's best. Additionally, the presence of Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp as their number-one wide receiver further bolsters the Rams' roster and gives them a chance on any given Sunday.
The team's 2022 stats paint a bleak picture, ranking 27th in points per game, 32nd in total yards per game, and 29th in plays per game. The Rams' offensive numbers were particularly concerning, with the team ranking 30th in dropback EPA per play and 29th in rush play Success Rate.
Despite the disappointing season, head coach Sean McVay chose to stay with the team, navigating through coaching turnover and bringing in new offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, a Kyle Shanahan disciple. The Rams are hoping that these changes will help the team run smoother in the upcoming season, but it's clear that a significant turnaround is needed.
The Rams' passing game, led by Stafford for 9 of their 17 games, had a rough 2022 season. Stafford's efficiency took a hit, with his adjusted EPA per dropback falling from +0.129 expected points added per play in the Rams super-bowl winning campaign (6th in the league among QBs with 320+ plays) to only +0.012 last year (25th). His Pro Football Focus passing grade also dropped to 67.6, an eight-year low for the veteran quarterback. The Rams' offensive line was a significant issue, with injuries leading to a new line combination in each of their first 12 games. This resulted in an increase in Stafford's pressure rate and a higher sack rate, leading to many drive-killing plays and no doubt also contributed to Stafford's season-ending injury problems.
Despite the struggles in the passing game, All-Pro WR Cooper Kupp managed to maintain his performance when on the field last season, recording a top 12 PFF grade. Unfortunately, like Stafford, Kupp only played nine games. Beyond Kupp, the Rams found little production at receiver, and this could be a problem again in 2023. The team will be looking for players like Van Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, and Ben Skowronek to step up and provide more options in the passing game.
In the running game, Cam Akers emerged as a beacon of hope during the latter part of the tumultuous 2022 season, a stark contrast to the uncertainty that surrounded him earlier in the year. Now, as we look ahead, the Rams are pinning their hopes on Akers for a breakout year in 2023. However, the lingering issues with the team's offensive line could pose a significant challenge for Akers and his fellow running backs, potentially hindering their performance.
The Rams' defense continues to transition from its Super Bowl squad, and mostly for salary cap reasons. This off-season the Rams cut LB Bobby Wagner and traded CB Jalen Ramsey to the Dolphins. The Rams lost these key pieces from a squad that finished last year ranked 20th in Points Allowed Per game.
The Rams' win total for the 2023 season is set at 6.5 with vigorish toward the Under, a stark contrast from the expectations of seasons past for L.A. Perhaps, like the 2022 Super Bowl champs, the Rams will use their perceived step backward as motivation to beat expectations. From the outside world, it appears clear that the team has a long road ahead. However, ask Aaron Donald or Sean McVay and their message is just as clear: we expect to win every game we play.
The Betting Landscape or ‘Wait a minute? Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald & Cooper Kupp are supposed to win how many games?’
The 2023 betting landscape for the Los Angeles Rams suggests a significant shift in market sentiment. The Rams, who opened with Super Bowl odds of 40/1 on February 13th immediately after SB 57, have seen their odds lengthen to 75/1 as of July 9th, 2023, according to Pregame.com consensus odds. This shift in odds coincides with the Rams moving on from talented players like Jalen Ramsey in order to have more cap flexibility in 2024 and beyond.
When it comes to the NFC West, the Rams' odds have seen perhaps the most significant shift of any of their futures. The Rams opened at +300 on March 7th, but their odds have since lengthened to +900, placing them as less likely contenders for the division title.
NFC West Odds (Consensus Odds as of 7/9)
SF 49ers -160
SEA Seahawks +200
LA Rams +900
ARI Cardinals 25-to-1
The Rams' projected win total for the regular season has also seen a downward adjustment. Initially set at an Over/Under of 7.5 (with the over at -120), the market had adjusted to closer to O/U 7 Wins prior to April’s NFL Draft. The pessimism accelerated immediately after the draft with the Rams Win Total dropping steadily since now sitting at Over/Under 6.5 (with the under at -130). This suggests that the market expects the Rams to win approximately 6.3 games in the upcoming season.
The recent offseason maneuvers by the Rams, specifically the release of Bobby Wagner and Leonard Floyd, as well as the trade of Jalen Ramsey to the Dolphins, have left a significant imprint on the team's betting landscape. These strategic decisions resulted in a substantial increase of $61.2 million in cap space for the 2024 season, indicating a shift towards prioritizing long-term financial stability over immediate on-field success. Consequently, the market's outlook for the Rams' 2023 season has progressively turned pessimistic. However, it is worth considering whether these future-focused moves should have already been factored into the market prior to the draft when the Rams were still expected to win more than seven games. The consistent decrease in bets placed on the Rams suggests that other bettors have followed the initial "sharp money" that lowered expectations for the team. The question remains whether these followers are making informed decisions based on a shrewd assessment of the Rams' outlook, or if they are being overly influenced by the initial moves and betting despite missing out on the inherent value.
The 2023 betting landscape reveals a market that is less confident in the LA Rams' prospects compared to recent seasons. The betting market has responded strongly to the team's strategic offseason moves, which while beneficial for long-term financial health, have led to a significant exodus of offensive and defensive talent. However, with key players like Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald still on the team, the Rams have the potential to outperform these expectations as predicted by Pregame.com’s founder, RJ Bell in the Dream Preview Podcast annual win-total competition.
RJ Bell & Steve Fezzik discuss their betting predictions for the Rams' upcoming season.
Week 1 Showdown
The 2023 NFL season kicks off with an intriguing NFC West clash as the Los Angeles Rams travel north to face the Seattle Seahawks at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 10th. Both teams are eager to set the tone for the season, and this divisional matchup promises to be a thrilling encounter.
The opening odds have the Rams as +5 to +5.5 underdogs, reflecting the market's cautious approach towards a Rams team that has undergone significant changes in the offseason. Despite losing both games to the Seahawks last season, the Rams are optimistic about their chances this time around, especially with the potential return of Matthew Stafford, who missed both of last season's encounters.
The over/under for the game has been set at 47 points, tied for the third-highest total for Week 1. This figure is three points higher than the average NFL total from last season and represents the highest total in a Rams game since Week 3 of the previous season. This suggests that the market expects an offensive showdown, with the Seahawks' explosive offense set to continue its form from 2022 and the Rams expected to improve offensively.
The Rams' offseason rebuild has seen them prioritize long-term financial health over immediate success. However, a victory over a division rival like the Seahawks, who made the playoffs in 2022 and have strengthened their roster in the offseason, could significantly alter expectations for the Rams' season.
The Seahawks have added first-round picks cornerback Devon Witherspoon and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to their ranks and also welcomed back linebacker Bobby Wagner after a one-year stint with the Rams. These additions, coupled with the return of Stafford for the Rams, make this Week 1 showdown a must-watch encounter.
As the Rams prepare to face a familiar foe in the Seahawks, they will be looking to defy the odds and start their season on a high note. This Week 1 showdown promises to be a captivating start to the 2023 NFL season.
Player Spotlights
Matthew Stafford (QB)
-150 at DraftKings Sportsbook to have 4000+ Passing Yards
20/1 at DraftKings Sportsbook to have 5000+ Passing Yards
[No O/U Listed]
The Rams' veteran quarterback, Matthew Stafford, is back and fully healthy for the 2023 season. Despite dealing with an elbow injury that limited his participation last season, Stafford is eager to compete and feels refreshed and energized. The former Georgia Bulldog has averaged 273 Yards Per Game over his 12-year career, which would put him on pace for over 4,600 yards if healthy for a full 17-game season. However, despite his consistent production, Stafford's ability to stay healthy has been questioned. Even though he says he's healthy, bookmakers are not confident yet to post a number. Stafford's health will be a key factor for the Rams' success this season.
Cam Akers (RB)
Over/Under Rushing Yards: 750.5
Cam Akers is expected to lead the Rams' backfield this season. Despite some concerns about his ability to create explosive plays, Akers produced career-best marks in rushing attempts (188), rushing yards (786), and rushing touchdowns (7) in 2022. The Rams have reunited with veteran Sony Michel and they traded up to take Zach Evans in the sixth round of the 2023 NFL draft, indicating that Akers could face competition for snaps. However, if Akers can replicate his strong finish to last season, he could exceed his Over/Under of 750.5 rushing yards.
Cooper Kupp (WR)
Over/Under Receiving Yards: 1225.5
Cooper Kupp, the Rams' star wide receiver, is set for another big year. After a stellar season that saw him cross the 1,000-yard threshold, Kupp's Over/Under for the 2023 season is set at a lofty 1225.5 yards. Kupp is second only behind Justin Jefferson in terms of Vegas expectation for next yardage production next year. Kupp is notably priced 25 yards higher than Raiders WR Davante Adams. Jefferson is at O/U 1400.5 Yards while Adams is at O/U 1200.5. If Kupp can stay healthy, he could be a top fantasy provider this fall and exceed his yardage prop.
Aaron Donald (DT)
25/1 to win Defensive Player of the Year
Aaron Donald, once a perennial favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award, has seen his odds in this market drop over the years. Entering last year, Donald was 9/1 to win DPOY, and he was a +550 favorite to win the award entering 2021. Limited to 11 games last season, Donald recorded 5 sacks and earned a 90.5 PFF Grade. While the sack total is solid and the PFF grade is indicative of an elite defender—ranking 7th best among all defenders of any position—these figures represent relative ebbs in Donald's Hall of Fame career. His sack total was a career low, and his PFF grade was the lowest since his rookie season.
The Rams' success this season will hinge significantly on the performances of these key players. With a healthy Stafford ready to command the offense, a determined Akers looking to make his mark in the running game, a high-flying Kupp ready to dominate the receiving game, and a motivated Donald eager to reestablish his defensive dominance, the Rams could be set for an exciting season. As always, the key for sports bettors will be to monitor these players' performances and adjust their betting strategies accordingly.
Offseason Chess Moves
In the wake of a disappointing 5-12 season in 2022, the Los Angeles Rams have adopted an unconventional approach to the 2023 offseason, one that focuses not on splashy free agency signings but on the strategic build-up of their roster through the draft.
Being cash-strapped with only $1.76 million in cap space, the Rams were largely observers during free agency, but their few moves were focused and tactical. Among the notable departures were Safety Taylor Rapp, who signed with the Buffalo Bills, and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who was traded to the Miami Dolphins. Additionally, Defensive Tackle Greg Gaines and Offensive Guard David Edwards also left, signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills respectively. These moves signaled a shift towards a leaner, younger team, showing the Rams' intent to rebuild.
Where the Rams were silent in free agency, they made a roar in the NFL Draft, with a whopping 14 selections, their most in recent memory. The Rams' draft strategy was centered on acquiring young, promising talent that could help infuse their aging core with new life. Their second-round pick, Guard Steve Avila from TCU, brings much-needed support to an offensive line that will be tasked with protecting QB Matthew Stafford.
Another significant acquisition was edge defender Byron Young from Tennessee, who was picked in the third round. Despite being the 100th-ranked prospect, Young shows promising signs of becoming a competent pass-rusher, bolstering a pass rush that saw the departure of Leonard Floyd.
Perhaps the Rams' steal of the draft was TCU CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, selected in the sixth round. He was our 69th overall prospect, and his inclusion into the secondary, which suffered from the loss of Jalen Ramsey, could prove to be crucial.
The Rams' decision to prioritize their draft over free agency, though perhaps a risky move, displays a long-term vision that aligns with their current situation. With significant cap limitations and an aging star cast, including Defensive Tackle Aaron Donald and QB Matthew Stafford, the Rams are focusing on sustainability and gradual improvement rather than quick fixes.
Nevertheless, the core trio of Stafford, Donald, and receiver Cooper Kupp, combined with the tactical acumen of head coach Sean McVay, gives the Rams a fighting chance. Their offseason may not be characterized by blockbuster moves, but their calculated approach could potentially lay the groundwork for a surprising 2023 season and beyond.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
In an NFL season filled with twists and turns, the LA Rams finished with a series of power ratings that were not the most encouraging. A brief examination of key metrics sheds light on the performance of the Rams during the 2022 season.
Starting with the Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a statistic that provides insights on a team's efficiency by comparing their performance to the league average, the Rams did not fare well. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Rams ranked 24th out of all teams during the 2022 NFL Season. Despite an improvement towards the end of the season thanks to Baker Mayfield's arrival, the Rams only climbed to the 21st position in weighted DVOA. This shows an uphill struggle in both offensive and defensive units, ranking 23rd on offense and 18th on defense.
Turning to NFL Elo (NFELO), a ranking system that measures team quality over time using Expected Points Added (EPA) algorithms, the LA Rams were positioned 24th in NFELO's final ratings. This was -2.6 points below an average team, indicating the Rams were noticeably below average on the league's performance scale. However, without the quarterback adjustment, the Rams would have finished as the 19th-best team in the league, on par with the NY Giants by NFELO’s numbers assuming they had a fully-health Matthew Stafford back in the fold.
From another angle, Kevin Cole, a respected analytics expert, ranked the Rams as the 28th-best team in the NFL in his final Power Ratings. Only the Titans, Bears, Colts, and Texans trailed behind them. Cole’s metrics cast them a 25th-best offense and 24th-best defense, combined to make them -3.0 points worse than an average NFL team. It's a harsh reality check for a team that has enjoyed brighter days in the recent past.
To summarize, the metrics suggest that the LA Rams were a below-average team during the 2022 season. The DVOA, NFELO, and Kevin Cole's power ratings all painted a picture of a team that struggled both offensively and defensively. The Rams will be looking to improve these numbers as they prepare for the 2023 season, and with strategic changes already underway, it will be interesting to see if they can climb up the ranks once again.
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From Our Podcast: Check out Pregame.com Founder, RJ Bell's recommended bet for the 2023 Rams season on this clip from "RJ Bell's Dream Preview".
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