Setting the Stage
As the excitement of the new 2023 NFL season builds, the Detroit Lions are basking in a wave of enthusiasm and heightened expectations. A remarkable end to the 2022 season, where they clinched eight victories in their last ten games, positioned the Lions in the spotlight as NFC North division favorites for the first time in the history of sports odds databases. The Lions' near-miss of the postseason last year only added fuel to the fiery anticipation for the 2023 campaign.
Under the guidance of Head Coach Dan Campbell, now in his third year at the helm, the Lions have harnessed a level of positive momentum that's rippled through their fanbase and resonated within betting markets. As the Lions steamroll into training camp, the vibrant hype around them has been acknowledged by Campbell, albeit with cautious optimism. "The hype train... it's out of control right now. That's fine, as long as we stay focused on the job at hand and the work," said Campbell during his first training camp press conference.
Despite the soaring optimism, the Lions' road to success in 2023 is laden with challenges. The NFC North division has been historically dominated by the Green Bay Packers, who clinched eight of the twelve division titles since 2011. However, with Aaron Rodgers' departure from the Packers, the stage seems set for a seismic shift in the division's power dynamics. Notably, the Lions are tipped as favorites to claim the NFC North title - a feat they haven't achieved since 1993. Currently, the Detroit Lions are +140 favorites to win the division, according to a consensus of sportsbooks from Pregame.com. Under the current 8-division alignment, the Lions have never been shorter than +200 odds (which they were in 2005). The Lions NFC north Odds have not been shorter than 5/1 since 2014.
The Lions' ascension has been marked by a transformation in team dynamics and game strategy, and they're expected to enter the 2023 season on the crest of their winning wave from 2022. The optimism around the Lions' prospects is not unwarranted - their recent performance suggests a team that's rallied around Campbell's leadership and demonstrated a resurgence in form.
Still, the journey ahead won't be an easy one. As Campbell's pragmatic optimism suggests, they need to maintain focus and commitment to their work. It's this grit and determination that may see them meet the lofty goals set for the end of the season. But, in order to truly satisfy the aspirations of the fans and the betting markets, they'll need to ensure they navigate their journey with discipline, focus, and a winning mentality. As the 2023 season unfolds, all eyes will be on the Detroit Lions to see if they can capitalize on the momentum they've built and transform the hype into reality.
Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Detroit Lions 2023 Win Total.
The Betting Landscape
As the Detroit Lions prepare to storm into the 2023 season, their futures market odds display an encouraging consensus among the betting community. Over the course of the offseason, the Lions have held steady at an inspiring 24/1 odds to clinch the Super Bowl according to a consensus of seven sportsbooks from Pregame.com. These are the most promising odds that the team has seen since their 2012 season.
In the competitive race for the NFC North, the Lions emerge as frontrunners with consensus odds of +140 as of August 3rd. Here’s how the division shapes up:
NFC North Odds (consensus odds as of August 3rd):
DET Lions: +140
MIN Vikings: +290
CHI Bears: +400
GB Packers: +400
These odds point towards a captivating struggle for dominance within the division, with the Lions leading the pack. However, the margin is not so wide that we can discount any surprises from the Vikings, Bears, or Packers. As mentioned earlier, 2023 marks the first time under the current alignment that the Lions have been favored to win NFC North.
Turning our gaze towards the NFL Win Totals, the Lions are set at an Over/Under of 9.5 games, with the juice leaning towards the Over (-120). This means that the betting market forecasts the Lions to pull off a performance that surpasses this figure.
Here's a glimpse at how the Lions compare to the rest of the NFL's top teams:
Top 10 NFL Win Totals (Consensus Odds as of July 11th)
KC Chiefs: O/U 11.5 Wins (Over -135)
PHI Eagles: O/U 11.5 Wins (Under -130)
CIN Bengals: O/U 11 Wins
SF 49ers: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -145)
BUF Bills: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -140)
BAL Ravens: O/U 10 (Over -120)
DAL Cowboys: O/U 10
JAX Jaguars: O/U 10 (Under -120)
DET Lions: O/U 9.5 (Over -120)
NY Jets: O/U 9.5 (Over -120)
Assessing the Lions' playoff odds, the 'Yes' stands at -165, implying a 60% chance that the Lions will make their return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. On the other side, 'No' is at +140, which translates to a 40% chance of missing the playoffs.
Will the Lions Make the Playoffs
Yes -165 (~60% implied odds)
No +140 (~40% implied odds)
The Lions last clinched a playoff spot under head coach Jim Caldwell, with the talented Matt Stafford at the helm as their quarterback. Their most recent playoff victory harks back to 1991, with coach Wayne Fontes and quarterback Eric Kramer outmaneuvering the then-up-and-coming Troy Aikman in his inaugural playoff start. This would be the Cowboys' last playoff loss until the 1994 NFC Championship game.
However, the Lions' aspirations have always been greater than just winning a single playoff game. The last time the Lions won multiple playoff games Dwight Eisenhower was in the White House. Indeed, in the 1957 NFL season, the Lions went 2-0 in the post-season trouncing the Cleveland Browns 59-14, in route to their fourth NFL championship in their 94-year franchise history.
As the Lions head into the 2023 season, they are the surprising favorites to win the NFC North, a notable leap from the 2022 season when they showed remarkable resilience and grit under the leadership of Coach Dan Campbell. With key offensive players like Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown and a palpable level of talent on both sides of the ball, the Lions are prepared for success in 2023.
While the competitive NFC North could see the Vikings or even the Packers make a serious challenge, Detroit's odds remain promising. The Lions' betting landscape is one of optimism, balanced with the sober recognition of the fierce competition they face. As we prepare to watch the season unfold, the Lions are poised to roar.
Week 1 Showdown
As the curtain rises on the 2023 NFL season, the first match that takes center stage is an exhilarating clash between the Super Bowl reigning champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the much-heralded Detroit Lions. The game is scheduled to occur at 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 7th, and will be broadcast on NBC.
With the initial odds situating the Chiefs as -7 favorites, most sportsbooks have upheld this line. Notably, more evidence of the emerging confidence in the Lions can be observed at Nevada's Circa Sports, which is offering an off-market number of Chiefs -6.5/Lions +6.5. This divergence suggests that the sharp bettors, who are known to frequent Circa Sportsbook and wager large amounts, are particularly optimistic about the Lions' prospects this season.
A noteworthy increase is also discernible in the total points market. The total points for the game have escalated from an opening line of 53.5 to 54.5 in most cases. The total has even reached 55.0 at certain sportsbooks like the notable offshore venue, Bookmaker, nearing the highest total ever for a Week 1 game, previously observed in the 2015 matchup between the Falcons and Eagles. This total would set a precedent for the highest total for an NFL kickoff game in sports betting history, superseding the former high of 54 from the 2020 season opener where the Chiefs faced the Texans.
Historically, high totals in Week 1 have not necessarily indicated a significant trend toward either the Over or Under. In the past eight games with a total above 53, the results have been almost evenly distributed: three Overs, three Unders, and two Pushes, with an average Over/Under Margin of just 0.1.
The Kansas City Chiefs, fronted by superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, are familiar with high-scoring season openers. Since Mahomes became the chief in 2018, the Chiefs have averaged a remarkable 39.4 points per game in season openers. Despite considerable changes in the receiver position during the Chiefs' offseason, their offense is projected to maintain its potency. Players such as Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and second-round rookie Rashee Rice are slated to step up and fill the gap left by departing receivers.
Last season, under the guidance of Jared Goff, Detroit ranked fifth in points per game with an average of 26.6. The Lions have bolstered their offense by adding running backs David Montgomery and first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs, significantly enhancing their offensive strength. Their defense will be rigorously tested against Mahomes and the Chiefs' formidable offense, but they stand ready, fortified by the addition of corners Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley, and the versatile C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
The season opener between the Chiefs and Lions is shaping up to be a clash of the titans, with both teams looking to make a statement. While the Chiefs are aiming to replicate their success and seek a consecutive Super Bowl victory, the Lions are steadfast in their mission to prove their merit and cement their standing at the top of the NFC North. With one of the highest-ever total for an NFL kickoff game at stake, both teams will need to bring their A-game, setting the stage for a riveting commencement to the 2023 NFL season.
Player Spotlights
Jared Goff (QB)
Over/Under 3900.5
25/1 to lead the NFL in Passing Yards (10th favorite)
Jared Goff, the lead signal-caller for the Lions, showcased an impressive performance last season by accumulating 4438 passing yards. This level of performance is consistent with Goff's track record. Since his first season as the Week 1 starter in 2017, he has averaged 4127 yards per season and 266 yards per game. This trend could place him on a trajectory to surpass 4500 yards in a 17-game season. Considering these statistics, many bettors would logically favor Goff to exceed his Over/Under of 3900.5 yards. However, considering Goff's history of injury-induced absences, such as his stint with the Rams in 2021, there's a real risk of him falling short. This underscores the importance of considering injury risks when placing bets on player props—an aspect often overlooked by casual bettors, which explains why Unders often provide value in these markets. Intriguingly, there's a noticeable variance in Goff's player prop between platforms; FanDuel offers an Over/Under of 3875.5, while DraftKings goes up to 4000.5 yards—albeit with a slight skew towards the Under at -115.
David Montgomery (RB)
O/U 750.5 Rushing Yards
David Montgomery is the latest addition to the Lions' backfield, creating an intriguing situation. Rookie Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs has a similar number of O/U 650.5 rushing yards, both higher than D'Andre Swift's O/U of 500.5 yards following his move from Detroit to Philly. Montgomery, a consistent veteran with at least 235 touches and 1074 yards in all four of his NFL seasons, is expected to bring that consistency to Detroit. His prop suggests that he's expected to continue this pattern, but don't discount Gibbs. The rookie could provide a pleasant surprise in Detroit's run-heavy offense.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)
O/U 1050.5 Receiving Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions' go-to target, is ready to dominate the receiving game. Following the departure of DJ Chark, St. Brown will likely be more involved in the offense than he was last year. The Lions' explosive offense, ranked 6th in offensive DVOA last season, is expected to continue its upward trend in 2023. This means that St. Brown, who established himself as a reliable option last season, is set for a significant increase in his role. His O/U for the 2023 season is set at a respectable 1050.5 yards, a testament to his potential and the high expectations placed upon him.
The Lions' success in the 2023 season will rest heavily on the performances of these key players. With a confident Goff ready to helm the offense, a sturdy Montgomery prepared to make his mark in the run game, and a rising St. Brown poised to elevate his game in the receiving department, the Lions could be set for an exciting season. As always, the smart bettor will closely monitor these players' performances and adjust their betting strategies accordingly. The team's explosive offensive prowess from the previous year bodes well for the upcoming season, and with the additions and enhancements in the team, the Lions are a team to watch.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Lions made significant changes to their roster this offseason, particularly fortifying their previously weak secondary with key free agency signings. Alongside these additions, the team also saw a number of notable departures.
During free agency, the Lions strengthened their secondary by recruiting cornerbacks Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley, along with safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. These newcomers, with Sutton's record of 14 forced incompletions last season and Moseley's five forced incompletions in just five games, bring a fresh, dynamic element to the Lions' defensive line. Considering the Lions' last place ranking in pass coverage in the previous year, with a dismal 48.8 team grade according to Pro Football Focus, the successful integration and performance of these signings is pivotal for addressing their defensive vulnerabilities and enhancing their overall performance.
The Lions also sought to enhance their offensive firepower by signing running back David Montgomery. Known for his resilience, Montgomery achieved 71% of his yardage after initial contact last season, making him a valuable asset for the Lions.
The Lions also saw significant departures. Wide receiver D.J. Chark and safety DeShon Elliott left the team via free agency, while cornerback Mike Hughes was traded to Atlanta.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, the Lions made an arguably unexpected move by selecting quarterback Hendon Hooker in the third round. Despite his ACL tear at Tennessee last year, Hooker is viewed as an asset due to his dynamic play-making ability and potential to fit into the modern NFL franchise quarterback mold.
The Lions’ draft also included key additions like running back Jahmyr Gibbs, linebacker Jack Campbell, and tight end Sam LaPorta in the first two rounds. These players are expected to contribute immediately to the team's 2023 campaign. Gibbs and LaPorta will likely provide a considerable boost to the Lions' passing game, while Campbell's excellent coverage skills indicate his potential impact on the defensive end.
The Lions also addressed their depth issues at tackle by signing Germain Ifedi. However, the effectiveness of this move remains to be seen given Ifedi's inconsistent performance over his career.
Overall, the Lions have made strategic offseason moves to strengthen their squad and are poised for a successful season in a relatively weak NFC North division. Their focus on rebuilding the secondary and enhancing the offensive line was a calculated chess game that has positioned them to be a top contender in the NFC. However, the potential payoff of their strategic decision to trade De'Andre Swift and replace him by drafting Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round will be largely determined by Gibbs' performance in the upcoming season.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
In the world of competitive football, the Detroit Lions have managed to carve out a space as a team to watch, not least because they are expected to boast one of the most electric offenses in the NFL. Despite occasional lapses, their 2022 run was distinguished by flashes of brilliance, especially when it came to scoring points. An exploration of key advanced metrics and power ratings reveals both their strengths and opportunities for improvement. As top NFL analytics experts often emphasize, such an energetic offensive performance like the Lions' is particularly noteworthy due to the fact offensive performance historically has been a much more reliable predictor of future success than defensive performance in the NFL.
Starting with the Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), the Lions ranked 8th in the league. This key indicator of performance shows that they have been playing above average in relation to the rest of the league. When we focus on the Weighted DVOA, which gives more weight to later games in the season, the Lions remarkably climbed to the 5th spot. This suggests a noteworthy upward trajectory towards the tail-end of the season, hinting at potential success in the upcoming campaign if they maintain this momentum.
In terms of offense, the Lions were one of the most productive teams in the NFL, ranking 6th in Offensive DVOA. This top-tier offensive efficiency was a driving factor behind their high DVOA rankings and is even more impressive given that they were one of only two top-10 offenses not to make the post-season last year, the other being the Cleveland Browns. This strong offense, however, was not complemented by a robust defense, as their Defensive DVOA was only 27th.
The NFL Elo (NFELO), another advanced metric for team ranking, also placed the Lions in the upper echelon, ranking them as the 7th best team, +2.3 points better than an average team. This closely aligns with their 8th place ranking according to DVOA, underscoring the consistency of their performance from different analytical perspectives. These rankings, however, reflect the combination of their offensive and defensive performances, an area where the team displays a notable imbalance.
Notably, Kevin Cole's Power Ratings ranked the Lions in the middle of the pack at 16th overall. According to his calculations, the Lions were just +0.50 points better than an average team. However, breaking down Cole's analysis by offense and defense provides a clearer picture of the Lions' 2022 performance. Cole had the Lions as the 5th best offense, contributing +2.42 points of value, yet he also had their defense ranked near the bottom of the league at 30th, subtracting -1.92 points of value.
Taken together, these advanced metrics tell a tale of two halves for the Lions. Their offense was undoubtedly their strength, driving them to be a better than average team. But their defense lagged considerably behind, pulling them back from their full potential.
Given the historical analysis by statisticians such as 538’s Josh Hermsmeyer, it's clear that the predictive nature of offensive metrics often outweighs the unpredictable nature of defensive ones. That means the Lions' top-tier offense in 2022, despite their weaker defense, is the main reason why betting markets are so bullish on their prospects for the upcoming 2023 season. Looking forward, the Lions may need to address their defensive issues to fully capitalize on their strong offensive play. Yet, the Lions seem well-positioned to build upon their successes of the last season and continue their upward trend in the NFL hierarchy.
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