Setting the Stage
The Jacksonville Jaguars' 2022 season was an undeniable breakthrough. After languishing through a decade marked by double-digit losses, the Jaguars' narrative began to shift. Guided by the raw talent and growing prowess of quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the aggressive tactics of Doug Pederson, Jacksonville transformed from a team that had been barely considered professional to one that battled fiercely in the Divisional Playoffs against the eventual champion Kansas City Chiefs.
The foundations for something significant have been laid since an impressive second half of the 2022 season. After a 3-7 start, the Jaguars found their stride, rallying to win the AFC South behind Lawrence's exceptional performances, such as a four-touchdown game against a stout Dallas Cowboys defense. The remarkable comeback victory in the wild-card game against the Los Angeles Chargers, from a 27-0 deficit, showcased the team's resilience and determination.
"You feel like your window of opportunity is now; strike while the iron is hot," declared Jaguars coach Doug Pederson in February after losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs a month earlier. The sense of urgency has been palpable, reflecting a team that believes its time is here and now.
In the wake of a season tarnished by who some called the worst coach in modern NFL history, Urban Meyer, Jacksonville's transformation has been nothing short of dramatic. The metamorphosis is credited largely to Lawrence, whose growth as a quarterback has been meteoric. Starting the 2022 season with inconsistent performances, the young quarterback began to shine in the second half, ending the last nine games of the regular season with an impressive 2,273 yards, 69.7 completion percentage, 15 TDs, 2 INTs, and a 104.6 passer rating.
"Last year I had a stretch of four or five games where I really didn't play well at all," Lawrence admitted this past June. "But I've always had that faith and that belief deep down that I knew what was going to happen."
His faith bore fruit. The 2022 season culminated in a divisional round playoff loss that, rather than breaking spirits, fueled the fire for the future. "We’re going to be back; this is the new standard," Lawrence asserted, setting a high bar for the team.
The off-season has brought about some significant changes that could reshape the Jags' offensive dynamics. The acquisition of suspended receiver Calvin Ridley not only holds promise on its own but should also create more opportunities for last year's notable free-agent signee, Christian Kirk. With defenses now having to account for both Ridley and Kirk's playmaking abilities, it sets the stage for a potentially explosive receiving corp. Additionally, the team locked down their tight end position for the foreseeable future by re-signing Evan Ingram on a three-year, $41.25 million deal, showing considerable investment in the former New York Giant.
While Lawrence with additional weapons such as Ridley have Jags fans excited, the burning question heading into the 2023 season is the strength of Jacksonville's defense. Ranked No. 26 in Football Outsiders' DVOA last season, they must find improvement from within. The pressure is on 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker and others to step up, especially in the pass rush, where improvement is vital for the team's Super Bowl aspirations.
Pregame.com's Dave Essler & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Jacksonville Jaguars' 2023 Win Total.
With a win total of around O/U 10 Wins, the Jaguars are expected to win about 59% of their games, their highest pre-season expected winning percentage since 2008 when they had a win total of 10.5. Like the Detroit Lions in the NFC North, the Jaguars are favorites to win the AFC South for the first time under new divisional alignment established ahead of the 2002 NFL season. Moreover, the Jags are significant -155 favorites to win the division and claim their second straight AFC South title for the first time in franchise history.
This is what the beginning of something monumental looks like. An electrifying quarterback taking giant strides early in his career. A division title followed by a thrilling playoff win. The promise of an MVP contender in Lawrence. Jacksonville's 2023 season presents an opportunity, a chance to break free from the shadows of mediocrity and step into the spotlight.
Maybe the Jaguars won't become Super Bowl champions in the immediate future, but there is no reason to think with their franchise quarterback in tow, the franchise couldn’t take commanding control of the division the way great QBs like Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers have dominated their divisions in the past. The promise is there. It will be nothing short of exhilarating to witness what unfolds next, and the most astute sports betting audience will be watching closely, analyzing every move.
The Betting Landscape
The betting landscape has been responsive to the team’s progress, hype and potential, and here's how it's been shaping up.
The Jaguars began the 2023 offseason Super Bowl odds lingering around 25/1, the 12th favorite in the NFL. As per our recent consensus, these odds have remained constant, suggesting the consistent belief of the bookmakers in Jacksonville’s prowess on the gridiron. The next-best SB odds in the division drop all the way to the Tennessee Titans at 80/1, the 27th favorite in the NFL.
Diving into the AFC South division, the Jaguars' dominance is evident. They opened at -145 and have seen an uptick to -155, a reflection of the market's increased faith in the squad. Their nearest challengers, the Tennessee Titans, have seen a dip in their odds, from +300 at the outset to +340 presently.
AFC South Odds (consensus as of August 3rd):
JAX Jaguars: -155
TEN Titans: +340
IND Colts: +625
HOU Texans: +900
The Jaguars' evolution since last season – progressing from a 3-14 record to win a playoff game and finish 9-8 in 2022 – underscores the team’s resurgence. The divisional odds mirror this transformation and confidence in Lawrence’s capabilities, coupled with key additions like Calvin Ridley.
Delving into the NFL Win Totals, Jacksonville began in March with an Over/Under of ~9.7 Wins, i.e. O/U 9.5 with the juice shaded toward the over. As of the start of the preseason here in August, the Jaguars have been set closer to O/U 10 wins (~9.9), with the under slightly favored at (-120). This suggests the market expects a decent chance that Jacksonville achieves their first 10 wins season since the 2017 campaign when the Duval brothers made it all the way to a second half lead in Foxborough in the AFC Championship game.
Top 10 NFL Win Totals (Consensus as of August 3rd):
KC Chiefs: O/U 11.5 Wins (Over -135)
PHI Eagles: O/U 11.5 Wins (Under -130)
CIN Bengals: O/U 11 Wins
SF 49ers: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -145)
BUF Bills: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -140)
BAL Ravens: O/U 10 (Over -120)
DAL Cowboys: O/U 10
JAX Jaguars: O/U 10 (Under -120)
DET Lions: O/U 9.5 (Over -135)
NY Jets: O/U 9.5 (Over -130)
In the all-important playoff realm, the Jaguars appear poised for another appearance. They're currently priced at -195 to make the playoffs, translating to a substantial 64% implied chance of post-season action. Those doubting their playoff return stand at +165 (~36% implied odds).
Will the Jaguars Make the 2023-2024 NFL Playoffs?
Yes: -195 (~64%)
No: +165 (~36%)
Bearing in mind the strides Trevor Lawrence made, the addition of Ridley to boost the passing game, and improvements on the defensive side, Jacksonville is poised for an exhilarating season. The betting landscape, while offering some caution, predominantly signals confidence in the Jaguars' potential to continue their upward trajectory.
For those keen on following the NFL's flow of fortune, Jacksonville's journey offers intrigue and promise. With the blend of youth, skill, and the strategic mastermind of Doug Pederson, the Jaguars are primed for a riveting 2023 season. The betting odds validate this sentiment, hinting at a team on the cusp of establishing itself among the league's elites.
Week 1 Showdown
The Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a marked franchise history of success in Week 1, are looking to hit the ground running as they open their 2023 NFL season against the Indianapolis Colts. The game, scheduled for Sunday, September 10th, at Lucas Oil Stadium, will kick off at 1:00 PM ET. And it's not just any matchup; this is a divisional clash in the AFC South, adding more spice to the proceedings.
With an opening line of Jaguars -4 and an Over/Under at 43.5, the odds have slightly shifted, with the current line sitting at Jaguars -3.5 (O/U 43.5). Historically, the Jaguars are 17-11 ATS in franchise history in Week 1, with a straight-up record of 14-14. Notably, this is the biggest road-favorite the Jaguars have been in Week 1 since the 2000 season, when they were a whopping 10.5-point favorite over the Cleveland Browns.
This particular showdown holds unique significance for both teams, with various elements at play that could determine the game's outcome. The Colts are entering this season with the debut of their new head coach, Shane Steichen, and the potential start of their No. 4 overall draft pick, quarterback Anthony Richardson. This fresh combination brings an element of unpredictability, possibly challenging the Jaguars' preparation.
The Jaguars' recent record against the Colts in Indianapolis has been uneven at best, with a 5-17 all-time record, including losing their last five such matchups. However, historically from a betting perspective, Jacksonville has played well vs. expectation in Indy, posting a robust 12-7-3 ATS record when playing there.
In their franchise history, the Jags have been 6-point underdogs on average in games against Indianapolis. This 2023 match-up is 9.5-points off of that match-up baseline. Week 1 brings a rare opportunity for the Jaguars, where they are both favored to win the game, and motivated to end their five-game skid in Lucas Oil Stadium. The Jaguars have an opportunity to capitalize on the uncertainty surrounding the Colts' quarterback situation, opening an additional door to reversing this trend.
For both the Jaguars and Colts, this game goes beyond just a season opener; it's a declaration of intent. The Jaguars aim to utilize this platform to establish themselves as formidable contenders and build early momentum, especially in road games. Conversely, the Colts see this as a chance to usher in a new era under Coach Steichen and possibly rookie quarterback Richardson, to silence critics, and set a positive tone for a rebuilding phase.
In the charged atmosphere of a divisional rivalry, the significance of a Week 1 victory is paramount. The stage is set for an exciting and potentially revealing showdown that will set the tone for the 2023 NFL season for these AFC South rivals.
Player Spotlights
Trevor Lawrence (QB)
Over/Under 4050.5 Passing Yards
15-to-1 to win NFL MVP (7th favorite)
It's time for Trevor Lawrence, the star quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars, to step up and prove his potential. Lawrence is one of eight QBs expected to toss over the 4,000-yard mark in 2023, joining the likes of Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes.
The young phenom has averaged around 3,900 yards per season over his first two years in the league, narrowly falling under this mark. However, following a rocky rookie campaign, Lawrence found his rhythm and enjoyed significant progress during the second half of last season. After the Jaguars' Week 11 Bye, Lawrence achieved an elite 103 Passer Rating, throwing for 254 yards per game, which equates to over a 4,300-yard pace.
With Doug Pederson entering his second year at the helm and showing willingness to unleash Lawrence with downfield attempts, expectations are high. The Jaguars' late-season surge last year, finishing eighth in EPA per dropback, and fifth in the season’s second half, can provide a solid foundation. Lawrence's growth and stability in Pederson's offensive scheme could lead him to not only surpass his yardage over/under but also become a genuine MVP contender.
Travis Etienne Jr (RB)
Over/Under 950.5 Rushing Yards
Travis Etienne Jr's explosive return to the field in 2022 was nothing short of remarkable. After missing out on his rookie season due to injury, Etienne stunned everyone, racking up 1,125 rushing yards and catching 35 passes out of the backfield.
His ability to adapt quickly to the NFL pace has generated excitement, and many expect him to be the centerpiece of the Jaguars' ground game. The over/under for his rushing yards this season is set at 950.5, a mark that seems well within his reach given last season's performance. If Etienne can maintain his momentum, it wouldn't be surprising to see him exceed this number and become one of the top rushers in the league.
Calvin Ridley (WR)
O/U 900.5 Receiving Yards
Calvin Ridley's addition to the Jaguars sent waves across the league for several reasons. A proven talent, Ridley posted 1,374 yards and 9 TDs in his last full season in 2020. For his career, he has averaged 68 Yards per game, equivalent to an approximately 1,150-yard per 17-season pace.
Fans might overlook Ridley due to his absence in the 2022 NFL season, but with the kind of production he has shown, he could miss a game or two and still easily surpass his over/under of 900.5 receiving yards. The teaming up of Ridley with Christian Kirk, who has a similar Over/Under of 825.5 receiving yards, will undoubtedly create a dynamic duo. Instead of splitting opportunities, analysts predict their skill sets will be mutually beneficial, keeping the defense honest on each side of the field.
Ridley's collaboration with wide receivers Coach Chad Hall, known for his work with Stefon Diggs, may be the perfect concoction to rekindle Ridley's fire. Expect him to be a vital cog in the Jaguars' offense.
The Jaguars are gearing up for what appears to be a promising season, especially after their 9-8 finish in 2022, which saw them winning the AFC South. The progress and development of key players like Lawrence, Etienne, and Ridley will play a significant role in their success.
With Lawrence's newfound confidence, Etienne's explosive comeback, and Ridley's hunger to regain his former glory, the Jaguars' offense is looking more formidable than ever. The bettors and fans will have their eyes glued on these players’ performances, as they will undeniably impact the team's fortunes and the betting landscape. If they play to their potential, the Jaguars could be one of the surprises of the 2023 season. Expect this trio to not only meet but also exceed expectations.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Jacksonville Jaguars, fresh off a triumphant season in which they not only clinched the South but also claimed a wild-card playoff victory, are meticulously shaping their future, keeping a keen eye on both their immediate needs and long-term ambitions.
One major move that's capturing attention is the acquisition of Calvin Ridley from the Atlanta Falcons. The saga concluded this offseason when the Jaguars managed to snag Ridley for a second-round pick and a mid-rounder, a potential bargain for a receiver of his caliber. Ridley ended up picking the Jaguars as his preferred destination, and with Trevor Lawrence throwing him passes, he very well could reestablish himself as one of the top wide receivers in the league. The Jaguars' decision to trade for Ridley showcases their commitment to bolstering their receiving corps and could turn out to be a game-changer for the team's offensive dynamics.
In free agency, the Jaguars made significant waves by re-signing tight end Evan Engram. This decisive move can be seen as a logical continuation of their success from the previous season, where Engram emerged as a pivotal figure in the offense. From Week 13 until the divisional round of the playoffs, he recorded 27 combined first downs and touchdowns, second only to Travis Kelce among tight ends. Holding onto Engram provides the Jaguars' offense with a reliable target, ensuring continuity and cohesion as they aim to reach greater heights.
Shifting to the NFL Draft, Jacksonville's attention turned to fortifying the trenches and making strategic selections. With the departure of Jawaan Taylor via free agency, the void in the offensive line became apparent. Enter Anton Harrison, the 27th overall pick from Oklahoma, who surrendered just one sack throughout the entire 2022 season for the Sooners. Harrison is seen as a promising talent and the long-term replacement for Taylor. Alongside him, the Jaguars have Walker Little, who will likely become the immediate starter due to Cam Robinson's suspension for the first four games.
The draft further revealed the Jaguars' determination to improve their short-yardage game. Travis Etienne's struggles in crucial situations prompted the team to seek a new force in the backfield, resulting in the third-round selection of Tank Bigsby. The Auburn product adds grit to the Jaguars' rushing attack, having earned an impressive 740 of his 976 rushing yards after initial contact, and forcing 61 missed tackles in his previous season. Bigsby's addition symbolizes a focused effort to address a known weakness, ensuring that the Jaguars are not left wanting when faced with short-yardage or goal-line scenarios.
A busy Day 3 for Jacksonville encompassed 10 picks, featuring intriguing selections such as Rutgers cornerback Christian Braswell. The young defensive talent showed promise in 2022, intercepting three balls and breaking up eight more on just 41 throws into his coverage. This move not only adds depth but possibly opens the door for immediate impact, given the Jaguars' current need for more production in the cornerback department.
However, the offseason wasn't entirely about arrivals. The Jaguars bid farewell to former starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who earned poor grades throughout the 2022 season, especially in run-blocking, according to metrics from Pro Football Focus. While replacing a tackle in the NFL will always come with some level of concern, the situation becomes more complex when considering the suspension of left tackle Cam Robinson for the first four games of the season. Robinson, a critical piece of the offensive line, will be missing due to violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy.
With Robinson's absence, Walker Little will step in at left tackle, and the Jaguars will start rookie first-round pick Anton Harrison at right tackle, reshuffling the line and taxing the team's depth. When Robinson returns, he will likely cause further adjustments as Little is expected to slide inside to left guard, creating a competitive scenario with Ben Bartch. Robinson's suspension, combined with the need to replace Taylor, amplifies the importance of adaptability and cohesion within the offensive line, making it an exciting and pivotal competition to follow as the season approaches. The team's active engagement in free agency and the draft demonstrates a readiness to adapt and progress, reflecting the intricate chess game that the Jaguars are playing as they prepare for the challenges ahead.
By retaining key assets like Engram, injecting fresh talent like Harrison and Bigsby, and making thoughtful adjustments to their roster, including the strategic acquisition of Calvin Ridley, the Jacksonville Jaguars have created a blueprint that aligns with their winning ambitions. As the 2023 season looms, these strategic decisions have positioned the Jaguars not merely to meet expectations but to challenge for greater glory. Their moves reflect a keen understanding of their strengths and weaknesses, setting the stage for a season where their calculated risks could translate into substantial rewards.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
When it comes to the 2023 NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars are poised to be an interesting team to follow, particularly as they aim to bolster a strong offensive performance from 2022 while shoring up a relatively shaky defense.
Examining the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) reveals critical insights into the Jaguars' performance. Overall, the team ranked 13th in DVOA, signaling an above-average positioning among their league counterparts. The 11th rank in Offensive DVOA solidifies the Jaguars as a force to be reckoned with offensively. The tale is a bit different on the defensive side of the ball, as they languished at 20th, with a particularly troubling rank of 26th at the end of the regular season. Notably, a strong defensive performance against the high-flying Chiefs appears to have boosted confidence in their end-of-year defensive ratings – as it also boosted the Jaguars' potential prospects in the eyes of sharp bettors.
Digging deeper, the Weighted DVOA, which gives more weight to later games in the season, positions the Jaguars at 12th. This adjustment underscores the importance of their late-season improvements, something that cannot be underestimated as they look forward to the next campaign.
In the NFELO (NFL Elo) rankings, the Jaguars come in at a modest 15th, just +0.3 points against an average team, situating them precisely at the median. While not an outstanding rank, it aligns with other analytical perspectives, painting a consistent picture of a team with untapped potential.
Kevin Cole's Power Ratings further elucidate the strengths and weaknesses of the Jaguars. Ranked 6th overall, at +1.88 points better than an average team, it's the offense where the Jaguars truly shine. Cole ranked them 6th, with an added value of +2.23 points. However, their defensive ranking of 22nd, subtracting -0.36 points of value, reveals a considerable imbalance within the team's performance.
These advanced metrics and power ratings construct a multifaceted view of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Offensively, they have proven their capabilities, driven by an 11th rank in Offensive DVOA and Cole's offensive rating. Defensively, however, the challenges are pronounced, reflecting the need for significant improvements. The late-season surge against strong opponents adds a layer of complexity, hinting at potential growth and development in their defense.
While the contrast between offense and defense within the Jaguars' ranks can be perceived as a concern, it's essential to recognize the predictive nature of offensive metrics over the relatively unpredictable defensive ones. This understanding transforms the Jaguars' strong offensive ranking from merely a highlight into a significant indicator for their future success.
As the Jaguars embark on the 2023 season, these numbers matter not only as a retrospective analysis but also as a forward-looking guide. If the Jacksonville Jaguars can leverage their offensive prowess and address the inconsistencies in their defense, they could very well find themselves on an upward trajectory in the NFL hierarchy. The smart and savvy sports betting audience at Pregame.com will undoubtedly keep a close eye on how these factors play out, shaping the betting landscape for the Jaguars' season ahead.
--
Read More:
NFL Team Preview Series:
AFC South
2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Indianapolis Colts Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Tennessee Titans Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Houston Texans Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
AFC East
2023 Miami Dolphins Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New England Patriots Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Buffalo Bills Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New York Jets Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
AFC North
2023 Cleveland Browns Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Baltimore Ravens Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Cincinnati Bengals Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Pittsburgh Steelers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
AFC West
2023 Kansas City Chiefs Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Las Vegas Raiders Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Los Angeles Chargers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Denver Broncos Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
NFC East
2023 Philadelphia Eagles Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Dallas Cowboys Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Washington Commanders Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New York Giants Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
NFC North
2023 Detroit Lions Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Green Bay Packers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Chicago Bears Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Minnesota Vikings Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
NFC South
2023 Carolina Panthers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New Orleans Saints Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Atlanta Falcons Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
NFC West
2023 LA Rams Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 San Francisco 49ers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Arizona Cardinals Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Seattle Seahawks Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
Get Real-Time Updates: Stay on top of the latest odds and line moves for all the latest sports with our real-time odds from Las Vegas and offshore
Read More: For more articles, odds, and expert picks, check out Pregame news.
--
Special Offers:
New Members: $25 of picks FREE! No Obligation - No Credit Card Required. - Becoming a member is Fast and Free!
Free Pick w/ Code: PREGAME25