Setting the Stage
The New England Patriots find themselves at a crossroads as they prepare for the 2023 NFL season Following a tumultuous 2022 season strewn with hurdles, head coach Bill Belichick, renowned for his strategic genius and tenacity, is at the helm, steering the Patriots toward the thrill of the competition ahead.
This year, it is a contest beyond wins and losses for Belichick; it is an assertion of his ability to lead a successful team in the modern era. The shadow of Tom Brady, the franchise's iconic quarterback of 20 years, looms large, but Belichick's intent is clear - to establish that his leadership and the team's prowess are not tethered to a single player, however legendary.
A poignant testament to this resolve is set to take place in Week 1. The Patriots plan to honor their former quarterback Tom Brady in a game that is already causing a stir in the football world. The Patriots will face off against the Philadelphia Eagles, a formidable adversary, and the last team to defeat them in the Super Bowl. Despite being 5-point home underdogs, the Patriots will be undeterred. The stage is set for an epic clash, a fitting tribute to Brady, and an opportunity for Belichick and his Patriots to signal their resilience and readiness for the battles ahead.
The offseason has proven to be a critical juncture for the Patriots, marked by significant shifts within their coaching staff, especially in the role of the offensive coordinator. The prior season was tarnished by a lack of cohesion and dysfunction within the offense, as unveiled in a startling exposé by the Boston Herald this past January. This offensive instability resulted in a disappointing average of 18.1 points per game from their offense in 2022. The Patriots did average more than 20 overall points per game thanks to a league-leading five defensive touchdowns. Regardless, their strong defense proved insufficient to compete with offensive juggernauts like the Bills. The Bills outpaced New England 35-23 in Week 18, ending the Patriots' hopes for a winning season.
The inefficiencies were glaring in their offensive scheme, previously managed by Joe Judge and Matt Patricia, which left their players with a reduced and ineffective playbook. In a candid observation, one source said, "It was disheveled. They were always scrambling to get things done." This scenario marked a challenging period for quarterback Mac Jones, who, despite showing promise for "dramatic improvement," experienced a noticeable regression. Prior to the 2022 season, Bill Belichick had recognized and publicly acknowledged Jones's potential for "dramatic improvement." Unfortunately, against the backdrop of organizational disarray, Jones faced a noticeable downturn in his on-field performance as the season unfolded.
The contrast has been stark. Jones went from having one of the five greatest seasons ever for a modern rookie QB in 2021 to being in the bottom 5 for QBR last year, even trailing Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan, who both had notably challenging seasons.
RJ Bell & Steve Fezzik discuss their betting predictions for the Patriots' upcoming season.
However, not all is gloom for the Patriots heading into the new season. A significant turning point arrived in the form of the reunion between Mac Jones and his former Alabama offensive coordinator, Bill O’Brien. The potential of this partnership is exciting for both the Patriots and their fans. O'Brien's expertise could prove pivotal in resurrecting the Patriots' offensive power and helping Jones find his footing again.
The 2022 Patriots also faced an alarming drop in red zone TD% at 42.22%, ranking them last in the league. This low figure, although a cause for concern, may not necessarily predict future failures, as pointed out by analyst Brian Burke. Red-zone performance could be the product of randomness or simply the outcome of poorly chosen offensive plays. With the arrival of O'Brien and a revised coaching approach, there is hope that this aspect of their offense could see a significant improvement.
The Patriots have a track record of resilience, often surpassing expectations and achieving more than what was predicted for them. In fact, since 2000, Bill Belichick's first year in New England, the Patriots have consistently outperformed their Vegas season win total, going Over Vegas's preseason expectations by an average of 1.1 Wins each season. This resilience is something that they will have to channel going into the 2023 season.
So, as the Patriots set the stage for the 2023 season, the stakes are high. A mixture of new coaching personnel, lessons from past failures, and inherent resilience will be key as they navigate this challenging period. The Patriots' performance in the forthcoming season will indeed be a testament to their ability to bounce back and reestablish themselves as one of the NFL's premier teams.
Betting Landscape
The 2023 betting landscape for the New England Patriots can be summed up in one word: challenging. Notably, the Patriots are considered the 22nd Super Bowl favorites, with odds of 60/1, according to a consensus from Pregame.com as of June 30th. However, the Westgate Superbook in Nevada presents a slightly more favorable outlier payout of 80/1, suggesting some more bearish expectations from their bookmakers.
These odds represent a departure from the Patriots' dominance during the Brady-Belichick era, underscoring the team's transitional phase post-Brady. The Patriots' long-standing reputation as perennial contenders has been somewhat diluted in recent seasons, most notably evidenced by their AFC East odds.
As we turn our focus to the divisional odds, the Patriots find themselves in unfamiliar territory as clear fourth favorites in the four-team division at +750. This is a stark contrast to their +120 co-favorite status alongside Buffalo entering the 2020-2021 season, their first year without Brady. The decline continued in the 2021-2022 season, where they stood at +340, tied with the Dolphins as second favorites behind the burgeoning Bills. This trend steepened last year when they entered the season as the third favorites at +500. Finally, as we enter this year the Patriots are in position as fourth division favorites that they have never been in Belichick’s tenure in New England.
Considering these developments, it is clear that Sean McDermott's program in Buffalo, coupled with the Patriots' recent underperformance, has significantly reshaped the AFC East landscape. No longer the dominant force in the division, the Patriots will have to navigate a more challenging path in the 2023 season.
AFC East Odds (as of June 30th, 2023)
BUF Bills: +125
NY Jets: +250
MIA Dolphins: +290
NE Patriots: +750
In terms of their regular-season performance, the Patriots' win total for the upcoming season is set at Over/Under 7.5, with the under being favored at -120. This pegs them at the 24th highest Win Total, indicative of the uphill battle they face. The team's challenging schedule factors heavily into this projection, suggesting that the path to success in the 2023 season will require overcoming significant odds.
When it comes to playoff prospects, the Patriots are favored to miss the postseason with a +250 odds implying a 27% chance of making the playoffs and -300 odds implying a 73% chance of missing out. This contrasts sharply with their historical performance and highlights the significant challenges ahead.
In the 2023 betting landscape, the New England Patriots are positioned as long-shot contenders. Despite the odds, the Patriots' proud tradition and resilient spirit suggest that they cannot be discounted. The Patriots have matched or exceeded their Win Total in 17 of 23 seasons (WT O/U record of 15-6-2) with Belichick at the helm, going over on average by 1.1 wins per season. However, in five seasons without Brady in the picture – including his rookie season and the year he tore his ACL in Week 1 – the Patriots have gone Over their Win Total only once in five seasons, falling on average 1.2 games below Vegas expectations. The 2023 season thus presents a compelling narrative for the New England Patriots, a storied franchise facing the odds and seeking to redefine its legacy in a post-Brady era.
Week 1 Showdown
The NFL 2023 season kicks off with a clash steeped in history, as the New England Patriots host the Philadelphia Eagles at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 11th. Both franchises, stepping into a new era, are eager to commence the season on a winning note.
The Eagles were favored in the opening odds by -4.5, but recent market movements have nudged the line to Eagles -5, reflecting the positive outlook the betting community has towards Philadelphia's chances.
Despite the Patriots not being the favorites, it's worth noting the historical struggle for Super Bowl runners-up in their opening game. Since 2000, teams in Philly’s position coming off a loss in the country’s biggest game have a record of only 8-14 SU and 4-18 ATS in Week 1. This presents an opportunity for the Patriots, who have historically risen to the occasion when the odds are against them.
The total points market sets the figure at 46 for the game. This total represents the highest for the Patriots since Week 5 of the previous season, which could signal renewed optimism in their offense, especially with the return of Offensive Coordinator Bill O'Brien. His return signifies the promise of an invigorated offensive strategy, and the Patriots will be hoping to bypass the hurdles that plagued Mac Jones' sophomore season.
Further fueling the anticipation for this Week 1 showdown is the planned tribute to retired Patriots legend, Tom Brady, prior to kickoff. The resultant surge in ticket demand has made this encounter the most sought-after of the 2023 season on the secondary ticket markets. This bears testimony not only to the reputation of both teams but also the anticipation of an intensely competitive matchup.
With both the Patriots and the Eagles keen to make a statement in Week 1, this game will be one to watch. The Patriots, in particular, are determined to demonstrate they can regain their prowess in the post-Brady era. This matchup represents an exciting beginning to the 2023 NFL season, with all eyes set on this showdown.
Player Spotlights
Mac Jones (QB)
Over/Under 3275.5 Passing Yards
As Mac Jones enters his third NFL season, he does so with a significant amount of pressure. After a promising rookie season, Jones' performance took a hit in 2022 with his passing yards falling to 2997, largely due to injuries that sidelined him for three games. This drop is reflected in the Over/Under for his passing yards this year being set at 3275.5. The addition of Mike Gesicki, James Robinson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, along with the return of Bill O'Brien as Offensive Coordinator, suggests the Patriots' offense has the potential to bounce back in 2023. But given the team's tough schedule and Jones' potential limitations, he may be asked to operate more as a game manager until he proves he can handle more responsibility. If Jones can maintain his accuracy and limit turnovers, he could meet or exceed the expectations set by the Over/Under for his passing yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)
Over/Under 975.5 Rushing Yards
Rhamondre Stevenson emerged as the Patriots' top back in 2022, rushing for over 1,000 yards on an impressive 5.0 yards per carry. The Over/Under for his rushing yards in 2023 is set at 975.5, reflecting confidence in Stevenson's ability to replicate his breakout performance. The departure of Damien Harris should only increase Stevenson's role in the Patriots' offense, potentially leading to even more touches this fall. Given the Patriots' anticipated shift to a more run-focused offense, Stevenson's potential for a standout season is high.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR)
[No Prop Listed]
Despite a lack of a prop bet listed for JuJu Smith-Schuster, his arrival in New England is already sparking interest. Known for his quick release, sure hands, and excellent after-the-catch moves, Smith-Schuster has the potential to emerge as the Patriots' leading receiver. With defenses also needing to account for the likes of Mike Gesicki and Hunter Henry, Smith-Schuster could find plenty of opportunities to make an impact. While the lack of a listed prop bet suggests some uncertainty around his exact role, Smith-Schuster is a player to watch in the Patriots' offense this season.
Offseason Chess Moves
The New England Patriots have approached the 2023 offseason with a blend of strategic acquisitions and key retentions to bolster their roster. The franchise, under the leadership of Bill Belichick, has adopted a determined attitude, focusing particularly on strengthening their offense and continuing the team's resilient spirit, epitomized by a series of high-profile moves.
As we have mentioned, their most crucial move was the appointment of Bill O'Brien as the new Offensive Coordinator. This decision can be seen as an ambitious move towards refreshing and revamping the team's offensive strategies. O'Brien is anticipated to reintroduce a timing-based scheme that emphasizes vertical routes and quick, accurate throws, making the most of quarterback Mac Jones' strengths. This strategy is expected to provide a more dynamic and effective offensive play, which will be critically necessary for the team to improve in 2023.
In addition to this key staffing decision, the Patriots made some significant player acquisitions to bolster their offense. Notably, they signed wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is expected to offer a substantial improvement to the team's yards-after-catch performance, which was a notable weakness last season. He fills the void left by the departure of Jakobi Meyers to the Las Vegas Raiders. His addition, coupled with O'Brien's offensive scheme, may help the Patriots find the end zone more frequently this season.
The Pats also addressed their tight end need by signing Mike Gesicki away from the Miami Dolphins. After trading away Jonnu Smith, the team needed a dependable complement to Hunter Henry, and Gesicki fits the bill. His ability to convert contested catches, particularly in the red zone, could be a game-changer for a Patriots' offense that, again, ranked dead last in the NFL in red zone productivity in 2022.
On the defensive end, the Patriots ensured the continuity of their secondary by re-signing cornerback Jonathan Jones. The versatile defensive back stepped up as a reliable contributor following J.C. Jackson's departure and is expected to be a key piece in the Patriots defense in 2023.
Additionally, the special teams saw an upgrade with the signing of Chris Board. The former Detroit Lion, praised by Bill Belichick as one of the best special teams players, will add strength to a unit that struggled last season. Board's signing might be the key to preventing costly return touchdowns that plagued the Patriots in 2022.
Rookie first-round pick Christian Gonzalez also deserves a mention as a promising addition to the defense. His contribution will be closely monitored as the season progresses.
The Patriots have made thoughtful off-season moves that maintain their competitive edge, particularly emphasizing offensive revitalization. Their strategic approach, spearheaded by Bill Belichick's coaching wisdom and savvy signings, suggests the 2023 season could witness a Patriots' offensive resurgence.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Rating Perspective
In reflecting upon the 2022 season, it is apparent that the New England Patriots were a team of contrasts in their performance across a multitude of metrics and statistics. While certain parts of their performance stood out as robust, there were glaring weaknesses in other areas that require attention and improvement.
The Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which comprehensively scrutinizes every play and calculates a team's efficiency by comparing its performance to a league average based on the situation, placed New England 15th in the league for the 2022 NFL Season. The Patriots ranked 24th on offense, a clear area of concern, while their defense ranked 3rd, highlighting their prowess on this side of the ball. However, their overall performance took a dip towards the end of the season, which resulted in a drop to 20th place in the "Weighted DVOA", a metric that emphasizes recent games more.
New England's poor special teams performance in 2022 was a noticeable departure from their usual excellence under Bill Belichick, landing them dead last in special teams DVOA. This performance raises questions about whether distractions within the offensive coaching staff might have contributed to this decline.
Analytical site NFELO (NFL Elo), which ranks teams using rigorous EPA-based algorithms, positioned the Patriots as the 12th best team in their final power ratings, indicating that they were +0.7 points better than an average team.
In Kevin Cole's final ratings, the Patriots found themselves at 18th in the league overall, an evaluation deeply influenced by their offensive standing. Despite their defense securing the 2nd place, their offense lagged behind at 22nd. This discrepancy underscores how critical the offensive performance is in shaping the overall team rating in predictive metrics.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), which assesses individual player performances on each play, the Patriots were ranked as the 13th highest-graded team, landing 19th on offense and 9th on defense.
In summary, the Patriots exhibited a strong defensive unit, while the offense lagged behind in 2022. The statistical breakdown of these performance numbers underscores the crucial need for offensive improvements in the Patriots' game plan for the 2023 season. With the addition of Bill O'Brien as the Offensive Coordinator, there is the expectation of a more well-rounded performance in the forthcoming season.
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From Our Podcast: Check out Pregame.com Founder, RJ Bell's recommended bet for the 2023 Patriots season on this clip from "RJ Bell's Dream Preview".
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