Setting the Stage: Fresh Start with a Familiar Touch in Houston
The Houston Texans approach the 2023 NFL season with cautious optimism, recognizing past shortcomings yet driven by expectations of improvement. This will be the fourth consecutive year that the Texans are projected by the Vegas market to have a losing record. Their low point in franchise history may have been over the past two years in 2021 and 2022 when they were expected to win only 8.5 games combined, based on preseason expectations, and managed to win only 7 games over the two campaigns combined. The franchise has reacted by hiring its third head coach in as many years, a move signaling its intent to inject new life into the team's strategy and gameplay.
At the helm of this new era is former defensive team captain and newly appointed head coach DeMeco Ryans, a familiar face within the franchise. Ryans, the sixth head coach in Texans history, brings to the table a rich pedigree as a player and coach. His reputation, honed by his role as the defensive coordinator of the 49ers, where his defense finished first in the NFL in 2022, positions him well to lead a Texans team looking for a resurgence.
The most visible change on the field for the Texans is likely to be the presence of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, whose performance will undoubtedly play a critical role in shaping the team's fortunes. Drafted out of Ohio State, Stroud finds himself in the spotlight as the potential face of the franchise, backed by a remodeled offensive line that includes the likes of Laremy Tunsil and recent acquisition Shaq Mason. The expectations for Stroud are immense, but the Texans' front office appears committed to nurturing his talent.
On the defensive side, the Texans are brimming with potential, having drafted highly (and they hope well) over the last few years. Players like CB Derek Stingley and LB Will Anderson are anticipated to make significant impacts, aligning well with Ryans' defensive philosophy. The presence of Ryans as a former Pro Bowl player adds an intriguing layer to the dynamic, as he attempts to shape the defense into a formidable force.
On & off the field, the synergy between the defensive-minded Ryans and rookie quarterback Stroud forms an appealing narrative. The integration of a defensive coach with an offensive centerpiece like Stroud is a delicate balance that Ryans will have to manage effectively. The Texans are stepping into a rarely traversed path that has occurred only four times in the past seven seasons: pairing their rookie quarterback with a first-year head coach. Teams like the 2016 Eagles, 2019 Cardinals, and the 2021 Jaguars and Jets have tested this combination, averaging only 4.8 wins, with none achieving more than 7 victories in their inaugural season together.
This history sets the stage for the 2023 season, as the Texans with Stroud are joined by the Panthers with Bryce Young and the Colts with Anthony Richardson. Each team is embracing this 'everything new all at once' strategy by ushering in new faces at both of the most vital NFL positions: QB and HC. Their paths, all under the spotlight, will undoubtedly draw comparisons as they challenge conventional wisdom and aim to set new precedents.
AJ Hoffman, a Houston native and analyst at Pregame.com, shares his prediction for the Texans' 2023 win total of Over/Under 6.5.
Amidst the promising additions, the Texans also have potential breakout players such as John Metchie III, the wide receiver out of Alabama, who is returning with a clean bill of health after missing his rookie season due to leukemia. His potential resurgence symbolizes the broader narrative of revival that the Texans are hoping to embody in 2023.
The Texans' setting for the 2023 season is a blend of anticipation, calculated risks, and latent potential. The appointment of Ryans, the ushering in of a potential franchise quarterback in Stroud, and the focus on a robust defense set the stage for a season that may well define the Texans' trajectory in the coming years. Fans and analysts alike will be watching closely, eager to see if these strategic moves and investments translate into tangible success on the field.
The Betting Landscape
The Houston Texans, embarking on a new chapter with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans, face a market tempered by the uncertainty of a rebuilding phase but also tinged with cautious optimism. Here's how the betting landscape is shaping up for the Texans.
The Texans' Super Bowl odds have remained consistent at 200/1 throughout the offseason, making them one of the largest long shots in the league, sandwiched between the Colts and Cardinals at the bottom of the odds list.
Bottom 5 NFL Teams in Odds to win Super Bowl 58 (consensus odds as of August 24th):
28th CAR Panthers 95 to 1
29th TB Buccaneers 105 to 1
30th IND Colts 125 to 1
31st HOU Texans 200 to 1
32nd ARI Cardinals 265 to 1
These odds mirror a market keenly attuned to the Texans' recent downturn, having won only 11 games over the past three seasons, including the tail end of Bill O'Brien's tenure.
A more positive note can be found in the Texans' Vegas Win Total. Although it remains one of the lowest expectations in the league, it has seen positive affirmation in the market. Opening at Over/Under 5.5 in March, the Texans Win Total has adjusted upward and now resides between O/U 6 and O/U 6.5, reflecting an expected win total of around 6.2 wins.
HOU Texans Win Total (consensus odds as of August 24th):
Over 6.5 (+120)
Under 6.5 (-140)
In the AFC South, the Texans are positioned with the longest odds at +850, indicating an uphill battle in a division with ascending teams like the Jaguars.
AFC South Odds (consensus odds as of August 24th):
JAX Jaguars -175
TEN Titans +340
IND Colts +600
HOU Texans +850
The Texans' current standing in division odds contrasts sharply with their dominance from 2015 through 2019, when Houston won the division in four out of five seasons. Including the disastrous 2020 season that saw Bill O'Brien fired, the Texans have endured three consecutive seasons with four or fewer wins. Nevertheless, history offers a glimmer of hope; in 18 of the past 20 seasons, at least one club has gone from worst to first in its division. The latest to achieve this feat was the Jaguars in 2022.
Will the Texans Make the Playoffs (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 24th):
Yes +475 (~15% implied odds)
No -700 (~85% implied odds)
The Texans last made the playoffs in 2019. In the divisional round that year, Houston led by 24 points over the eventual Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs famously stormed back and ended up winning the game by 20 points, 51-31. That was arguably the last moment the Texans were relevant in the overall picture of the NFL.
The 2023 season presents itself as a time of learning and growth for the Texans. With fresh leadership and a young quarterback, the team may not be the wisest bet for immediate success, but the cautious optimism seen in the win total suggests the building blocks for future triumphs might be in place. As the Texans forge ahead, the market watches with reserved anticipation, waiting to see if the rebuilding efforts bear fruit in the 2023 season.
Week 1 Showdown
The Houston Texans are set to kick off their 2023 season with a formidable challenge against the Baltimore Ravens, on Thursday, September 10th, at 1:00 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium. The meeting serves as an acid test for a rebuilding Texans team, facing off against a Baltimore side aiming for a Super Bowl run.
Opening odds pegged the Texans as +9 underdogs, but a shift in the market has since nudged the line to Texans +10. This reflects the significant confidence that bettors have placed in the Ravens, who have upgraded their offense in the offseason with key acquisitions like Odell Beckham Jr., and are now expected to win more than 10 games. At the same time, we have seen the Total drop from O/U 45 to O/U 44 for this Week 1 matchup.
The Texans have embarked on a new era with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, the second overall pick from Ohio State, leading the offense. This showdown against the battle-hardened Ravens will serve as an early litmus test for Stroud and Houston's future prospects.
Facing a Ravens defense that gave up the third-fewest points last season, Stroud's NFL debut promises to be a challenging one. The Ravens, bolstered by Lamar Jackson's return on a massive contract extension and a fortified receiving corps, are expected to be a formidable offensive force. With the team's ground game expertise and Houston's defensive vulnerabilities, it's likely the Texans will have a steep hill to climb.
With Baltimore's offensive potential against Houston's defensive weaknesses, the ten-point spread seems within reach, especially considering the Texans' struggle last season, where they ranked 30th in points scored and lost seven games by double digits.
The Over/Under at 44 points holds intrigue, primarily due to Baltimore's firepower. However, a closer look reveals that the downward pressure on the total may be tied to Houston's offensive struggles and anticipated growing pains with a rookie QB at the helm. Expectations for the Texans' scoring are tempered, making the Under a potential consideration.
In terms of potential odds shifts, the preseason could offer insights that might lead to market adjustments. Injuries, key performances, or new developments within the teams may alter the current landscape.
This Week 1 showdown might appear one-sided to many observers, with the Ravens poised for a dominant performance. But the world of NFL betting thrives on unpredictability. For the Texans, it's a chance to make an early statement, to show that their rebuild is heading in the right direction, even against a formidable opponent. For the Ravens, it's an opportunity to justify their status as Super Bowl contenders.
In a season brimming with possibilities, this opening game might offer more than just a glimpse of what lies ahead. It's a meeting of contrasting narratives: Baltimore's pursuit of excellence against Houston's quest for redemption. In the vibrant world of sports betting, such stories make every game a fascinating spectacle, and this clash is no exception. The sharp bettors are leaning toward Baltimore, but the nuanced dynamics of this game might still hold some surprises.
Player Spotlights
C.J. Stroud (QB)
Over/Under 3050.5 Passing Yards
+850 to win NFL Rookie of the Year (fourth favorite)
C.J. Stroud, the Texans' likely starting quarterback this season, has impressed in camp and brings considerable energy and skill to the table. However, his Over/Under for passing yards is set at a somewhat conservative 3050.5, and his odds of winning NFL Rookie of the Year are the lowest of any expected rookie QB starters at +850. These numbers are likely more reflective of the Texans' low expectations as a team than Stroud's individual capabilities. When compared to teams like the Carolina Panthers with Bryce Young and the Indianapolis Colts with Anthony Richardson's, the Texans have both the lowest Super Bowl odds and the lowest Vegas win total. Stroud's development and mastery of the new offensive scheme will be key for the Texans overall team success.
Dameon Pierce (RB)
Over/Under 900.5 Rushing Yards
Dameon Pierce will be a focal point in the Texans' run-heavy attack under new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. Drawing from his recent experience as the Passing Game Coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers in 2022, Slowik is expected to employ play-action and various formations to make use of Pierce's abilities. The market sets Pierce's Over/Under for rushing yards at 900.5, a figure that represents both an opportunity and a challenge for the running back.
Nico Collins (WR)
Over/Under 600.5 Receiving Yards
Nico Collins is poised for what the market expects to be a breakout year. In a receiver corps that lacks a clear No. 1 option, Collins has the chance to shine. His Over/Under for receiving yards is 600.5, a mark he can reach if he can find consistency in his game. At just 24-years old, this third-year receiver is an essential part of the Texans' aerial attack.
Robert Woods (WR)
Over/Under 540.5 Receiving Yards
The transition from Tennessee to Houston may offer Robert Woods an opportunity to revitalize his career. Last season was disappointing for Woods, but the new scheme in Houston might suit his style better. With an Over/Under set at 540.5 receiving yards, the market expects a modest improvement from his performance last year. His experience in play-action-heavy schemes could make him a valuable asset for the Texans.
The success of the Texans this season will depend significantly on these key players. Stroud's development and the growth of the receiving corps, led by Collins and Woods, could be vital in elevating the Texans' offense. Meanwhile, Pierce's ability to fulfill the central role in the running game will also be critical. The new coaching staff and offensive scheme may bring a fresh perspective, but these players' performances will dictate the team's fortune. Monitoring their statistics and adapting betting strategies based on their play will be essential for the savvy sports betting audience looking to capitalize on the Texans' prospects.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Houston Texans, guided by the strategic vision of new head coach DeMeco Ryans, have made moves in the 2023 offseason that could shape the team's destiny. Ryans, the architect behind this transformation, brought with him several of his coaching teammates from the San Francisco 49ers, including hiring former 49ers Passing Game Coordinator Bobby Slowik to be his offensive coordinator.
The Texans' free agency signings, such as safety Jimmie Ward and tight end Dalton Schultz, resonate with Ryans' philosophy. Ward's experience and Schultz's reliability offer the team much-needed improvement in crucial areas, aligning with the strategic blueprint laid out by Ryans and his coaching staff.
However, the most significant buzz surrounds the Texans' moves in the 2023 NFL Draft. Securing Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud and Alabama edge defender Will Anderson Jr., the team demonstrated a bold commitment to Ryans' vision. These selections, particularly the audacious trade up to the third overall pick for Anderson at the cost of their 2024 first-round pick, signify a decisive gamble on immediate success.
This aggressive draft strategy has created additional incentive for the Texans to perform well in the 2023 season specifically. The loss of a future first-round pick puts pressure on Stroud and Anderson to make an instant impact. Failure to thrive could see the Texans gift the Cardinals another prized top 5 pick.
The Texans' offseason moves, under Ryans' guidance, reflect a balanced yet bold approach, mixing experienced veterans with promising young talents and a focus on immediate performance. The rejuvenation brought by Ryans, coupled with the assertive draft decisions, is the new heartbeat of the Texans. Whether these moves translate to on-field success in 2023 will be a narrative closely followed by fans and analysts alike. The Texans have made calculated chess moves this offseason; the upcoming season will reveal if these strategies prove to be winners.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The Houston Texans, having struggled in the 2022 season, reveal a concerning picture when viewed through the lens of advanced metrics and power ratings. The numbers attest to challenges faced on both sides of the ball and highlight areas where immediate attention is needed.
An evaluation of the Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a metric that gauges a team's efficiency compared to the league average, places the Texans in a grim position. Their 31st ranking in DVOA, coupled with a slightly better Weighted DVOA at 30th, underscores the lack of consistency throughout the season. Digging deeper into the Offensive DVOA reveals an even more disheartening scenario, where the Texans were placed 31st, near the bottom of the league. Their Defensive DVOA at 22nd indicates some redeeming qualities on defense, but not enough to make a significant impact.
NFELO, a system that applies EPA-based algorithms for ranking, offers a slightly more optimistic view, placing the Texans 29th and -7.1 points against an average team. This ranking suggests certain game-specific scenarios or players may have contributed positively, although not consistently enough to change the overall narrative.
Kevin Cole's Power Ratings paint a harsher image, positioning the Texans as the worst in the league at 32nd overall. According to Cole's evaluations, the Texans were -6.53 points worse than an average team. A further breakdown showcases the offense as the primary culprit, with a value of -6.35 points added (32nd rank), while the defense, though far from stellar, was ranked 19th, with only 0.18 points of value subtracted.
The numbers that matter for the Texans indeed shed light on a season marred by difficulties and inefficiencies. These advanced metrics illuminate the need for robust strategic overhauls on both offense and defense. With the leadership of figures like HC DeMeco Ryans and the potential in emerging talents such as QB CJ Stroud, the Texans may find the direction they need. As the team looks ahead to the 2023 season, the analytic insights gathered here will be instrumental in pinpointing the areas that require immediate focus. Guided by these insights, the Texans could embark on a season of renewal and competitive resurgence, leveraging their strengths and addressing their weaknesses.
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