Setting the Stage
No team has been upgraded by the Vegas betting market this offseason more than the Baltimore Ravens, who have leaped a remarkable 1.5 games by Vegas's win total expectation since the market first opened in late March. It only takes a half second to remember why. Although we often think of mini-camps leading into training camp this time of year, the NFL offseason indeed reaches all the way back to March Madness & even the NBA All-Star game in late February. And for the first two months of this offseason - as had been the case for the entire year prior - there was severe uncertainty about the state of the Baltimore Ravens vis-a-vis the status of Lamar Jackson's uncertain future. He didn't attend the last game. He wanted a trade. The team temporarily placed him on the non-exclusive franchise tag, potentially inviting teams to make their offers for the sixth-year QB. Throughout, the betting market's perception of the Ravens remained fractured by this uncertainty.
Even when the Ravens signed WR Odell Beckham Jr., a move to which Jackson responded positively on social media, the market's expectations stayed constant. It wasn't until the Ravens secured a deal with Jackson on the day of the draft that their win total surged from O/U 8.5 (over -140) pre-draft to O/U 10 (over -120), with most of that movement taking place within mere hours of the 5-year deal being announced.
Big truss indeed: Lamar Jackson's record $260 million contract has swiftly swept away months of uncertainty, fluctuating emotions, and negative perceptions. His past relationship with the Ravens might have been erratic, but now that's all history, underscored by the game-and-a-half improvement in the team's win total.
With a groundbreaking contract secured and sweeping changes unfolding under newly appointed offensive coordinator Todd Monken, a fresh era is dawning in Baltimore. The Ravens are orchestrating a transformation, shifting towards utilizing Jackson's arm more than his legs and reinforcing the receiving corps with talents like Beckham Jr. and first-round draft pick WR Zay Flowers.
"Running can only take you so far," Jackson told Ravens.com, aligning with the team's new direction. This isn't just a tactical shift but a monumental new chapter, overseen by Coach John Harbaugh's proven adaptability and leadership. Harbaugh's impressive record and high expectations align with the Ravens' aspiration to ascend once more. Outside of his famous - and somewhat ridiculous - 23-game (and counting) preseason win streak, Harbaugh has also more than held his own when the games have actually counted in the NFL. For his career in the regular season and playoffs, Harbaugh sports a 60% SU & a 53.3% ATS record - not to mention, of course, one Super Bowl victory in his 15 years as an NFL head coach.
Last season's inconsistencies, marked by Jackson's injury and a six-game losing streak, were uncharacteristic for the usually solid and resilient Ravens. That six-game slump marked the longest losing streak Baltimore has endured during Harbaugh's tenure. This offseason's franchise about-face, which the Ravens hope is the harbinger of renewal, transformation, and most importantly, a return to Harbaugh's winning ways, has caught the attention of many pundits, fans, and sports bettors alike. Targeted additions and strategic draft picks, anchored by the commitment to their franchise quarterback, position Baltimore as a formidable contender, currently ranking as the eighth-favorite to win it all.
The spotlight now beams on Jackson, the charismatic leader armed with an MVP award, a history-making contract, and an extensive record list. The only accolades missing? A few big ones come to mind: Championship game appearances, Super Bowl appearances, a ring – these are the totems yet to be notched for Jackson and the rest of this latest Ravens' flock. The restructured offense, prominent acquisitions, and trust in Harbaugh's leadership all converge toward this ultimate goal: The Ravens take flight into the 2023 season, propelled by anticipation, determination, and an entrenched belief in taking that next pivotal leap.
The Betting Landscape
The 2023 betting landscape for the Baltimore Ravens marks an exciting period of revival and growth. With Lamar Jackson’s future finally settled, and the addition of some pivotal pieces, the Ravens are poised to make a significant impact on the NFL stage. Let's delve into the specifics.
The Ravens' initial position at the beginning of the offseason was not a particularly promising one. Super Bowl odds as high as 30/1 signaled a sense of doubt in the team's potential. However, the story has changed dramatically since then. Currently, the Ravens' Super Bowl odds have leaped to 18/1, placing them among the top eight favorites to win the championship. Their companions in the top eight rankings reflect the competitive landscape:
Top 8 Super Bowl Favorites (consensus Pregame.com odds as of August 16th)
KC Chiefs: +625
PHI Eagles: +750
SF 49ers: +900
BUF Bills: +900
CIN Bengals: 10 to 1
DAL Cowboys: 13 to 1
NY Jets: 17 to 1
BAL Ravens: 18 to 1
These odds place the Ravens in a challenging but hopeful spot. They're rubbing shoulders with the elite, and the markets are backing them to make significant strides this season.
A closer look at the AFC North reveals a fascinating battle. The divisional odds have the Ravens at +220, trailing the Bengals but leading both the Browns and Steelers. Here's a detailed breakdown:
AFC North Odds (consensus Pregame.com odds as of August 16th)
CIN Bengals: +150
BAL Ravens: +220
CLE Browns: +380
PIT Steelers: +470
The Ravens' position reflects a competitive edge in a division that's been reshaped by player moves and injuries, particularly around Bengals' QB Joe Burrow. The Ravens are hunting down the favorites, making this an enticing race to watch.
The win total expectation for the Ravens in 2023 further underscores the optimism surrounding the team. With a consensus Over/Under win total of 10 (Over -120), the Ravens sit with the sixth-highest expectation for the season. Here's a glance at the top 10 NFL win totals:
Top 8 NFL Win Totals (consensus Pregame.com odds as of August 16th)
KC Chiefs: O/U 11.5 Wins (Over -135)
PHI Eagles: O/U 11.5 Wins
CIN Bengals: O/U 11 Wins
SF 49ers: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -145)
BUF Bills: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -140)
BAL Ravens: O/U 10 (Over -130)
DAL Cowboys: O/U 10
JAX Jaguars: O/U 10 (Under -120)
But it's not all optimism in Baltimore. The Ravens have had a mixed performance against Vegas expectations under Coach Harbaugh, especially in recent years. After exceeding win total expectations in the first five years of Harbaugh's tenure, the Ravens have been a pedestrian 4-5-1 versus Vegas expectations heading into the season since.
The playoff equation presents another dimension of anticipation for the Ravens. With odds at -170 (~61% implied odds) to make the postseason, the team's consistent performance in the past decade under Harbaugh resonates. Yet, it's worth noting that the Ravens have not made it past the divisional round since their Super Bowl victory at the conclusion of the 2012 NFL Season.
Odds Ravens Make Playoffs
Yes -170 (~61%)
No + 140 (~39%)
In a market where expectations and reality often diverge, the Ravens' 2023 betting landscape paints a picture of cautious optimism. The team's recent moves, coupled with the market's response, signal a belief in a Ravens' resurgence. While the division and conference are competitive, Baltimore's position among the top contenders reflects a readiness to step back into the limelight. The stage is set, the odds are cast, and the Ravens are poised for a season that promises to be anything but ordinary.
Week 1 Showdown
The Baltimore Ravens will make their highly anticipated season debut at home against the Houston Texans on Thursday, September 10th, at 1:00 p.m. ET. The game will unfold at the Ravens' stronghold, M&T Bank Stadium, setting the stage for what many are calling a "David vs. Goliath" matchup.
The Ravens, under the coaching guidance of John Harbaugh, are looking poised to launch a Super Bowl run, starting their campaign against a Houston Texans team that has been mired in a rebuilding phase for seemingly half a decade. The stage seems set for the Ravens to flaunt their potential, but as every seasoned bettor knows, surprises are never off the table. Adding to the intrigue is Harbaugh's mastery in week 1 games, which may not be unrelated to his incredible winning ways in the preseason. His 11-4 SU & ATS record in the Ravens' season debuts speaks volumes, boasting an average ATS margin of over 11 points per game. It's a feat that not only defies Vegas expectations but stands as an impressive hallmark of his early-season coaching prowess.
Among NFL Head Coaches with 5 or more seasons since 1989, John Harbaugh's Week 1 success rate of 73% SU places him seventh on the list for that period. He trails only iconic names like Mike Ditka (6-1), Sean McVay (5-1), Jimmy Johnson (7-2), Ken Whisenhunt (6-1), Rex Ryan (6-2), and Mike Shanahan (14-5) in this particular category. Perhaps this distinctive excellence in Week 1 matchups will play a critical role in their upcoming face-off with the Texans and rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans.
Opening odds were placed at BAL Ravens -9.5 against the Texans, with an Over/Under set at 44.5 points. A slight adjustment has been made since the opening lines, with the Ravens' odds now sitting at -9.5 (-115). This small change reflects the growing optimism for the Ravens throughout the offseason.
Houston will enter the field as underdogs, led by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, assuming he wins the starting job. Stroud's debut on the grand NFL stage against the seasoned Ravens defense will be a true test of mettle. The Texans, under new head coach DeMeco Ryans, will be eager to prove that their rebuilding process is on the right track. But with a team that ranked 30th out of 32 in points scored last year and 27th in points allowed, the challenge looks almost Herculean.
Conversely, the Ravens' offseason has been all about strategic enhancement. Lamar Jackson's massive contract extension has anchored him as the team's leader, while the addition of offensive weaponry like Odell Beckham Jr. aims to reduce Baltimore's reliance on the ground game. With a defense that gave up the third-fewest points and ninth-fewest yards per game last season, the Ravens are looking balanced and lethal.
Betting-wise, while the Ravens are heavy moneyline favorites, the -410 odds don't offer much value for a straight bet. A more tempting prospect may be the spread, with the Ravens needing to win by only a touchdown and a field goal to cover. Don't be surprised if this line creeps up as the game approaches, especially given Baltimore's offseason upgrades and Houston's well-documented struggles.
The Over/Under 44.5 points mark might catch some eyes as well, especially considering the Ravens' offensive potential against Houston's defensive frailties. But with a rookie QB facing a stringent Ravens' defense, and Baltimore's potential to control the game's pace, there might be wisdom in watching how this line moves before making a play.
This Week 1 showdown between the Ravens and the Texans may seem like a foregone conclusion to many, but in the world of NFL betting, nothing is ever that simple. With a fresh season ahead and untested elements in play, this game offers an intriguing window into the 2023 season's narrative. Whether it's the Ravens' statement of intent or a Texans' surprise, this opening game will certainly offer more than a glimpse of what's to come in a season filled with promise and unpredictability. The sharp eyes are on Baltimore, but the smart money knows that every game has its nuances, and this one is no exception.
Player Spotlights
Lamar Jackson (QB)
Over/Under 3500.5 Passing Yards
Over/Under 725.5 Rushing Yards
15/1 to win MVP (tied for 6th favorite)
Lamar Jackson enters the season with high expectations and an adjusted offensive game plan. With the Ravens focusing on "less running and more throwing," it's notable that Jackson still possesses the highest rushing total over/under of any quarterback. His 725.5 rushing yards line outpaces even the closest competitor, Jalen Hurts, by 25 yards. Despite this shift towards a more passing-oriented offense, the rushing potential remains a crucial factor in Jackson's game. The newly installed offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, aims to spread the field more and exploit the receiving talents of Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers. These strategic changes should put Jackson in a position to potentially surpass his 3500.5 passing yards line. Maintaining Jackson's health through these adjustments will be paramount as the Ravens seek to keep their star quarterback fit for the postseason.
J.K. Dobbins (RB)
Over/Under 750.5 Rushing Yards
J.K. Dobbins, the Ravens' leading running back, is poised to be the focal point of the ground attack, slightly edging his quarterback in total rushing yards projections. Though only carrying the ball 92 times last season, Dobbins averaged 5.7 yards per carry, indicating a high-efficiency rate. With a full season ahead and a fresh offensive system, Dobbins could play a significant role in the Ravens' offensive success. His over/under line of 750.5 rushing yards reflects his potential to lead the backfield and contribute consistently. The Ravens' continued focus on a versatile rushing attack means Dobbins' performance will be pivotal.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR)
Over/Under 575.5 Yards
The inclusion of Odell Beckham Jr. in the Ravens' roster heralds an invigorating aspect to Baltimore's aerial assault. The former NY Giants All-World receiver has faced questions regarding his fitness, which adds a certain amount of intrigue to the Over/Under line of 575.5 yards set by Vegas. This figure reflects a cautious optimism about his potential output in the 2023 season. If Beckham can overcome health concerns and acclimate to Monken's system, his status as a top wideout option could significantly elevate Baltimore's passing capabilities. Moreover, Beckham's veteran presence on the field could uplift the performance of rookie Zay Flowers, as well as provide a seasoned target for Lamar Jackson. As the season unfolds, Beckham's health and seamless integration into the Ravens' offense could be a critical component of their aspirations, making the 575.5-yard mark a compelling benchmark for bettors to consider. A standout rookie receiver who could flourish opposite Beckham, adding another dimension to the passing game.
Mark Andrews (TE)
Over/Under 825.5 Receiving Yards
A significant force for Baltimore over the last four years, Mark Andrews's Over/Under of 825.5 receiving yards puts him behind only Travis Kelce (1150.5). He turned in a solid 847-yard performance last year, a step down from his remarkable 2021 season where he racked up 1361 receiving yards, the third most ever for a TE. This historic feat ranks him only behind Kelce's 2020 performance and George Kittle's 1377 yards in 2018 (who is lined at Over/Under 725.5 yards this season). The betting landscape for Andrews is rich, reflecting his impact and the varying possibilities in Baltimore's evolving passing game.
These players represent the heart of the Ravens' hopes and plans for the coming season. The mix of Lamar Jackson's dynamic dual-threat capabilities, Dobbins' potential ground dominance, and the intriguing additions to the receiving corps paint a picture of a team retooling and reimagining its offensive identity. The transition to a more diversified offensive system, under the guidance of Todd Monken, brings new excitement and anticipation for Ravens' fans and sports bettors alike. Jackson's move towards more passing, Dobbins' increased role, and Beckham's potential resurgence create a complex and engaging narrative that will unfold as the season progresses. As always, savvy sports bettors will need to monitor these shifts and adapt their strategies accordingly, as the Ravens seek to make their mark in a highly competitive AFC North division.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Baltimore Ravens, faced with the uncertainty of securing their offensive cornerstone, began the 2023 offseason with significant changes, firing former offensive coordinator Greg Roman and hiring Todd Monken in his place. These coaching shifts were made even as they navigated the complex negotiations with star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Finally, after a series of protracted discussions, they inked Jackson to a 5-year, $260M deal. This decisive action affirmed their commitment to Jackson and set the stage for a series of targeted offseason maneuvers aimed at enhancing their competitive standing, all while emphasizing offensive improvement.
The suspense surrounding Jackson's contract became the focal point of the Ravens' offseason, a dramatic storyline filled with twists and turns. The 2019 MVP's ultimate commitment to a long-term stay in Baltimore, secured after considerable negotiation, served as the linchpin of the Ravens' strategy. This vital signing prevented what could have been a disastrous scenario, losing Jackson, and a potential reset mode for the franchise, solidifying their direction going forward. Taking a step further to enhance the offensive prowess, the Ravens made aggressive moves to upgrade Lamar's weaponry. The arrivals of wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor are more than mere roster fillers; they provide the depth and talent to the receiving corps that it has arguably lacked during Jackson's tenure. This has not only boosted the passing game but also ensured that the Ravens' offensive line remains a powerful unit.
But the Ravens didn't rest on their laurels, choosing to infuse youth into the receiving unit through the draft. The selection of Zay Flowers, who accumulated 503 yards after the catch for Boston College last season, demonstrates a deliberate strategy to inject explosiveness into the offense. His ability to force missed tackles – 15 last seasons to be exact – underlines his potential impact.
The draft also witnessed a remarkable pick in offensive guard Andrew Vorhees, a player who shined with back-to-back 80.0-plus Pro Football Focus grades at USC. His falling in the draft due to an ACL tear during combine drills turned out to be a blessing for the Ravens, who managed to acquire quality talent later in the seventh round of the draft.
On the defensive front, the strategy was clear: reinforce and revitalize. The departure of oft-injured CB Marcus Peters created a vacuum filled by the acquisitions of Rock Ya-Sin and Trayvon Mullen. Both cornerbacks, surrendering only one touchdown into their coverage last season, will play a significant role in shaping the defense, despite some concerns due to previous injuries.
However, the offseason wasn't without challenges. The loss of OG Ben Powers to Denver, EDGE Justin Houston to free agency, and TE Josh Oliver to the Vikings creates certain voids. There is also a perceptible need for improvement in the defensive interior, where players like Justin Madubuike and Broderick Washington have not quite met expectations.
An early position battle is also shaping up between LB Patrick Queen and LB Trenton Simpson, a third-round pick with impressive coverage skills from Clemson. Queen's improved performance in 2022 will be tested against Simpson's athleticism, sparking a competition that adds yet another intriguing layer to the Ravens' offseason landscape.
In total, the Baltimore Ravens have made a series of calculated and impactful moves this offseason. From retaining their star quarterback to retooling the receiving corps and addressing key positions on defense, the franchise has displayed a clear commitment to building a competitive roster. The ultimate verdict on these moves will unfold on the gridiron, but the early indications from pundits as well as the betting market point to a Ravens team poised and ready for a serious challenge in the upcoming season. The new season will be the ultimate test, as the ambition to elevate from contenders to champions remains the driving force behind every chess move made by the Ravens.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The Baltimore Ravens 2022 season unfolded as a tale of two halves, marked by a rollercoaster of triumphs and losses. The promising start that thrust them into the spotlight gradually faded into a maelstrom of challenges, most notably the injury of their star quarterback, Lamar Jackson. This turning point not only sent ripples through the team's offensive dynamics but also set the stage for a six-game losing streak that defined the latter half of their season. Even though Jackson's health looms as a variable, the Ravens' underlying metrics might not do justice to the true potential of this team when he's in control.
A glance at the Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) portrays the Ravens with a strong foothold in the league. They secured the 7th position overall, with a division into the 12th spot for Offensive DVOA and the 7th for Defensive DVOA. The trajectory of the Ravens' offense is illustrative of their struggles, particularly post-Jackson's injury, which even led to the dismissal of Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman. However, this was contrasted by the rising prowess of Baltimore's defense under the guidance of first-year Defensive Coordinator Mike Macdonald. A protege of Michigan's defense under Jim Harbaugh, Macdonald orchestrated a defensive unit that showed resilience and improvement as the season wore on.
The Weighted DVOA, a metric that places greater emphasis on the later games, ranks the Ravens 8th, mirroring the team's fading momentum in the offensive department. Nonetheless, the defense's strong showing offers a silver lining, a testament to the effective strategies implemented by Macdonald.
From the perspective of NFL Elo (NFELO), the Ravens were the 13th-best team. However, when we back out the quarterback adjustment which accounts for Jackson's late-season absence, this recalibration catapults Baltimore to the 7th position in the NFL, nestling them between the Dallas Cowboys (6th) and the Detroit Lions (8th according to NFELO’s EPA-based ratings).
Kevin Cole's analysis places the Ravens as the 8th best team in the NFL, with a nuanced assessment of their offense and defense. According to Cole, the Ravens boast the 10th-best offense with +1.33 points of value, while their defense stands at 13th with +0.44 points. Overall, Cole's calculations paint Baltimore as +1.78 points better than an average team.
These advanced metrics weave a complex narrative of the Ravens' 2022 season. The oscillation between the promising start and the troubled finish, punctuated by critical injuries, offers a multifaceted view of a team in flux. The stark contrast in offensive and defensive performance, especially under new leadership on both fronts, hints at the evolving dynamics within the squad.
Yet, within these numbers lies a compelling optimism. The Ravens' defense, flourishing under new tutelage, holds promise for the future. Coupled with the potential return of a healthy Lamar Jackson, the underlying strength of the Ravens may be yet to fully emerge. This convergence of talent and opportunity signals a team ready to recalibrate and redefine its stance in the high-octane arena of the NFL.
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