Setting the Stage: Decisions of Destiny
This off-season, the Carolina Panthers organization embarked on a course that could redefine their destiny by making two monumental decisions. First, Panthers owner David Tepper handed over the reins of his team to Frank Reich, a seasoned coach with a 40-33-1 SU record accumulated over his 4.5 seasons at Indianapolis. Secondly, and perhaps more audaciously, they parted with their star player, WR DJ Moore, and a treasure trove of draft capital, to land the services of Alabama QB Bryce Young. Now, as the Panthers enter the 2023 season, they find themselves with new leaders at each of the NFL's most crucial positions—a rare and precarious situation for an NFL franchise, but one they believe will fast-track their journey back toward Super Bowl contention.
Young, who first caught attention in high school and further solidified his reputation at Alabama, now finds himself in the bright glare of the NFL spotlight. Gearing up for the 2023 season, Reich did not hesitate to anoint Young as the starting quarterback for the regular season opener against the Falcons. This audacious decision reflects the immense faith the organization has in Young's potential, looking past his greenness to see the promise of future stardom. Observers are already mentioning Young in the same breath as Joe Burrow's standout rookie season, adding to the growing anticipation. The substantial resources the Panthers invested to bring Young on-board guarantee that he'll be under intense scrutiny from both the ardent fan base and the broader NFL world.
As Reich steps into his second head coaching role, he's keenly aware of the hefty expectations and challenges that come with the position. In the cutthroat world of the NFL, few coaches get a third shot at the helm without significant success in their earlier stints. Tasked with putting together his coaching team for the Panthers, Reich went beyond merely 'casting a wide net.' Acting on a direct instruction from Tepper, Reich took the unconventional route of purposely excluding members from his well-known coaching circle when filling out the Panthers personnel. The motive behind Tepper's directive was two-fold: to bring a blend of voices to the coaching staff and to infuse perspectives that might question, even confront, Reich's tried-and-true methods. Following this strategy, Reich enlisted Thomas Brown, formerly of the Los Angeles Rams, as the offensive coordinator and Ejiro Evero, previously in a DC role in Denver, to sharpen the Panthers' defensive approach. This meticulously designed method emphasizes Carolina's relentless pursuit of innovation and excellence, setting the stage for both coordinators to make a significant mark in this competitive division.
Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Carolina Panthers' 2023 Win Total of Over/Under 7.5.
In the NFL, it's relatively rare to see both a rookie quarterback and a first-year head coach start the season together. In the past seven seasons, this scenario has unfolded just four times: the 2016 Eagles with Carson Wentz and Doug Pederson, the 2019 Cardinals with Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury, and the 2021 Jaguars and Jets with Urban Meyer & Trevor Lawrence and Robert Saleh & Zach Wilson, respectively. The results were modest, with an average of only 4.8 wins, and none of these teams managed more than 7 victories in that inaugural season together. Despite this history, three new teams are taking up the strategy in 2023: the Panthers with Young, the Houston Texans with C.J. Stroud, and potentially the Indianapolis Colts with Anthony Richardson.
Guiding an NFL team with a rookie quarterback at the helm, particularly one of Young's quality, is undoubtedly a gamble. But Young's leadership, backed by an invigorated coaching staff, hints at a transformative era for Carolina. The NFC South stands watchful, poised for the resurgence of the Panthers. With a robust concoction of talent and tactical acumen, they're out to make a new mark in the NFL landscape.
The Betting Landscape: Rebuilding with a Purpose
The Carolina Panthers have experienced a rollercoaster of perceptions in the 2023 betting landscape. Following the dramatic decision to opt for a rookie quarterback, Bryce Young, as their primary offensive weapon, instead of investing in a seasoned veteran, their overall stock in the futures markets has seen a downturn.
In February, following Super Bowl 57, The Panthers were given optimistic odds of 65/1 to clinch the title. Since then, their journey in the futures market has been less than encouraging. As of now, their odds stand at a cautious 80/1, a reflection of the uncertainties that surround the team's capabilities in the forthcoming season.
A defining moment that signaled the ebbing confidence in the Panthers was their NFC South odds. Initially opening in March at +260, they have now taken a backseat to the Atlanta Falcons, pushing them to the third favorite spot with odds at +360, behind the Falcons and the favored New Orleans Saints.
NFC South Odds (as of August 6th):
NOR Saints: +120 (~41%)
ATL Falcons: +215 (~29%)
CAR Panthers: +360 (~20%)
TB Bucs: +800 (~10%)
Our trusty Future Odds calculator illustrates that the Vegas market gives the Panthers around a 20% chance to win their first NFC South title since the 2015 season.
The Panthers' prospects regarding their win total over the season provide a more stable picture. The Panthers have held stead with a Win Total of 7.5, with slight vigorish pushing toward the Over.
CAR Panthers Win Total:
Over 7.5 (-120)
Under 7.5 (+100)
Yet, the real question for Panther fans and bettors alike is their playoff potential. Can the Panthers make the post-season for the first time since the 2017 season? Current numbers display a hesitant optimism, with a +205 (~33% implied odds) for a playoff spot, and a -245 (~67% implied odds) against.
Their playoff odds directly reflect the current assessment of the team: a mix of experienced stalwarts like Adam Thielen and DJ Chark combined with the raw potential of Bryce Young and Jonathan Mingo. The blend could provide surprising results, or it might take some time for the team's chemistry to truly shine. The departure of D.J. Moore, a notable offensive weapon, has undoubtedly had an impact on these odds. However, the addition of tailback Miles Sanders and an offensive line that previously ranked ninth in adjusted line yards brings some promise.
On the defensive front, the Panthers have shining stars in Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, and Jaycee Horn, with Vonn Bell's addition further strengthening their defense.
While the betting landscape for the Panthers indicates a season of development and challenges, particularly centered around their rookie quarterback's growth, their potential as underdogs should not be overlooked. The NFL season is unpredictable, and as mentioned in the prior NFL predictions, the Panthers could emerge as dark horses in a division that's undergoing significant transitions.
Week 1 Showdown: Business Trip to Hot ‘Lanta
The Carolina Panthers will kick off their 2023 season facing NFC South rivals, the Atlanta Falcons. Both teams, having secured only seven wins last year, believe they have a shot at clinching the division in 2023.
For Week 1, the betting market opened in May with the Panthers starting as +3-point road underdogs to the Falcons with the Over/Under set at 43.5. The O/U has since decreased to 42.5, indicating expectations of a more defensive game. Leading sportsbooks, like DraftKings & Bookmaker, have adjusted their lines, now favoring Atlanta more prominently at -3 (-120). This mirrors the growing confidence in Atlanta observed in their futures market odds.
Making an NFL debut is never easy, especially against a division rival on the road. Young's entry into the NFL will be further tested by the fact that the Panthers are coming into this game without a standout wide receiver target, given the trade of D.J. Moore.
However, it's not all sunshine for the Falcons either. Despite enjoying the easiest schedule in the league, history is against them. They have been unable to clinch a victory in their home opener since 2015 and have struggled with Week 1 games in recent years. Their last triumphant start to a season was in 2017 visiting Chicago.
For those looking for betting angles, this game presents an interesting dilemma. On one hand, the Falcons, with their home advantage and desire to break a longstanding jinx, seem like an appealing bet. On the other, the unpredictability of a Panthers side led by a top draft pick and the unpredictability that Week 1 often brings could be enticing for many. Whatever the outcome, this matchup is set to be a thrilling kickstart to the 2023 NFL season.
Player Spotlights: All New Panthers Core
Bryce Young (QB)
Over/Under 3400.5 Passing Yards
+500 to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (2nd favorite)
The Panthers' fresh face at quarterback, Bryce Young, stands as the first overall draft pick, symbolizing a renewed optimism for Carolina's future. His collegiate record showcased exceptional anticipation and command, but there are concerns regarding how his slighter frame will endure the NFL's rigors. Nevertheless, his dynamic playmaking ability sets him apart. In comparison to his fellow rookie QBs, Young's projected O/U of 3400.5 Passing Yards is notably higher than HOU's C.J. Stroud's 3100.5 and significantly surpasses IND's Anthony Richardson's 2600.5. In the race for the Offensive Rookie of the Year title, only ATL RB Bijan Robinson stands ahead of him, setting a high bar for Young's inaugural season. With the experienced Andy Dalton as backup, the Panthers have fortified their quarterback position for 2023.
Miles Sanders (RB)
O/U 925.5 Rushing Yards
Having signed a substantial contract this offseason, Miles Sanders is poised to lead the Panthers' ground game. With career highs in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns during his stint with the Eagles, Sanders is reuniting with his former running backs coach, Duce Staley. However, his declining target numbers in recent years hint at his diminishing role in the passing game, especially given his pass-blocking challenges. With the Panthers' significant investment in Bryce Young, it's unlikely they'll gamble with Sanders on third downs. Although Sanders enjoyed a comfortable RB2 status with the Eagles, the ceiling might be similar for his 2023 campaign with Carolina.
DJ Chark (WR)
Over/Under 675.5 Receiving Yards
DJ Chark is poised to be a deep-threat option for the Panthers. His standout performance in the offseason program, marked by impressive athleticism and eye-catching receptions, has put him in the limelight. With the new offensive system under Frank Reich and Thomas Brown emphasizing intermediate routes, Chark, along with Terrace Marshall, is expected to compete for those deep balls. A renewed passing game, led by Bryce Young, could see Chark surpassing expectations.
Adam Thielen (WR)
Over/Under 550.5 Receiving Yards
Veteran wideout Adam Thielen finds himself in a prime position within Carolina's revamped offensive strategy. Historically, Thielen has exhibited prowess in deep routes. However, under Reich and Brown's new system, Thielen is projected to lead the team in targets, particularly excelling against zone coverages. This shift in playing style might prove beneficial for the seasoned receiver, making him a potential cornerstone of the Panthers' aerial attack.
The 2023 season for the Carolina Panthers is brimming with anticipation. As Bryce Young takes the helm under center, established stars like Miles Sanders and Adam Thielen, coupled with emerging talents like DJ Chark, look to redefine Carolina's offensive prowess. Their individual performances will heavily dictate the trajectory of the Panthers' campaign. For the avid sports bettor, monitoring these crucial players will be pivotal in making informed decisions throughout the season.
Offseason Chess Moves: Major Gamble at QB
The Carolina Panthers made shockwaves this offseason with a blockbuster trade that certainly set the tone for their 2023 strategy. Recognizing the need for transformation and the importance of a franchise quarterback, Carolina's front office showcased their willingness to make daring moves, all in the name of long-term success.
One cannot discuss Carolina's offseason without diving into the audacious trade with the Chicago Bears. The Panthers acquired the No. 1 overall pick from the Bears, surrendering four draft picks and star wide receiver DJ Moore in the process. Such a move spoke volumes about Carolina's belief in the upcoming quarterback class. And, in a league where the quarterback position is paramount, Carolina chose Bryce Young from Alabama, the consensus top overall prospect. With a record that boasted 60 big-time throws vs. only 25 turnover-worthy plays during his time with the Crimson Tide—metrics tracked by Pro Football Focus—Young appears poised to be the catalyst for Carolina's resurgence.
While the departure of DJ Moore is significant, the Panthers have seemingly worked to counteract the loss. In the free-agent market, they acquired seasoned wide receivers D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen. Both have battled injuries in recent years, but their talent is undeniable. If they can stay healthy, they will be pivotal in guiding and supporting the young Bryce Young.
Additionally, the Panthers looked to boost their receiving unit through the draft, picking Jonathan Mingo in the second round. Mingo, with his ideal NFL size and speed, adds depth and youth to the wide receiver corps. However, he'll be entering the season in a contested battle with WR Terrace Marshall Jr. for more prominent reps.
Away from the receiver position, Carolina secured running back Miles Sanders, fresh off the best season of his career. With impressive stats like forcing 52 missed tackles and gaining 856 of his 1,419 yards after contact, Sanders is set to be a dominant force in the Panthers' backfield.
On the defensive end, safety Vonn Bell, formerly of the Cincinnati Bengals, was a notable addition. Bell showcased his capabilities last season, recording four interceptions and forcing three incompletions. However, there remain concerns in the cornerback department. Despite boasting Jaycee Horn, a first-round pick from 2021, the Panthers' secondary has shown inconsistency. Players like Donte Jackson, C.J. Henderson, and Keith Taylor will need to elevate their game or Carolina might need to address this area further.
The 2023 outlook for Carolina is a mixed bag of excitement, anticipation, and uncertainty. They have a promising young quarterback and have added significant talent in key areas, but the new additions need to gel quickly for the Panthers to make an impact in their division. This upcoming season will test the efficacy of Carolina's strategic offseason moves.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective: Dissecting the Panthers’ 2022 ‘Dead Cat Bounce’
The Carolina Panthers, despite showing late-season grit, faced numerous hurdles in the 2022 season. The ups and downs of the team can be easily discerned from the prism of advanced metrics and power ratings, highlighting significant gaps but also areas of promise.
Diving straight into the numbers, the Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) paints a challenging picture for the Panthers. They landed in 28th position in the league by DVOA, suggesting a below-average efficiency compared to their counterparts.
A glimmer of potential emerges from the Weighted DVOA, which prioritizes recent performances. Here, the Panthers climbed to the 22nd spot, largely propelled by a commendable end to the season with 4 victories in their final 6 games, primarily with Sam Darnold at the helm. Yet, with significant offseason changes, including parting ways with key figures like Darnold and interim Head Coach Steve Wilkes, it remains to be seen if this late-season surge truly signals a lasting upward trajectory.
On a more granular level, dissecting the DVOA metrics for offense and defense further illuminates the Panthers' story. With an Offensive DVOA at 27th and a Defensive DVOA at 25th, it's evident that the Panthers had their work cut out on both sides of the ball. The departure of key players during the season, such as Christian McCaffrey's early exit and the subsequent trades of Sam Darnold and WR DJ Moore, further emphasized their struggles, leaving the offense potentially even more vulnerable than the metrics suggest.
In the broader scheme of NFL power ratings, the NFL Elo (NFELO) placed the Panthers at 19th, indicating they were -1.2 points below an average team. While not a position of envy, it stands noticeably better than their DVOA rankings, suggesting some discrepancies in the evaluation methods.
Adding another layer to this complex mosaic, Kevin Cole's rankings bring forth a unique perspective. Cole ranked the Panthers as the 25th best team overall, approximating them to be -2.34 points worse than an average team. Delving deeper into these ratings, Cole's evaluation of the Panthers' offense positioned them at a lowly 26th, subtracting -0.238 points of value. Meanwhile, their defense, in a somewhat surprising turn, fared significantly better at the 15th spot, adding a modest +0.04 points of value.
Considering the tumultuous season the Panthers faced, with critical roster changes and a challenging trajectory, these ratings, while not ideal, portray a team that managed to stay resilient amidst adversity. The late-season spark, primarily led by Darnold's contribution, offers a silver lining as the Panthers recalibrate and look towards the 2023 season. As the power ratings suggest, the upcoming season is an opportunity for the Panthers to regroup, capitalize on their defensive potential, and rebuild a more potent and consistent offensive unit.
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