Setting the Stage: Old Hats and New Trails – The Cowboys' Next Chapter
The Cowboys have won double-digit games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since their Super Bowl glory days of the 1990s. So why is their head coach, Mike McCarthy, the favorite to be the first coach fired? Such is the enigma that is the Dallas Cowboys, aka America's Team, aka 'The Boys' of Jerry World.
The 2023 NFL season for the Dallas Cowboys commences with an air of anticipation as the Cowboys have maintained a roster that has earned 24 regular season victories over the past two seasons, a number only surpassed by the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (26). However, despite their stellar 24-10 SU, 23-11 ATS record, the sentiment remains that McCarthy is one losing streak away from being back on the hot seat. The fact remains the Cowboys have not made the NFC Championship game in nearly thirty years, and whether sane or not, Super Bowl-or-bust will always be the mentality to some degree for the world's most valuable sports franchise.
The strength of the team lies in their elite defensive unit along with the leadership of Dak Prescott. The former Mississippi State QB has posted a stellar 63-40 SU record as the Cowboys' starter; however, that includes a 2-4 record in the playoffs. The story gets even worse from a Vegas perspective: despite his solid 54.5% ATS record overall, Prescott has covered the Vegas spread only once in his six playoff games for Dallas.
The supporting cast around Prescott has seen some major changes over the offseason. Gone are offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who had worked with Prescott since 2019, as well as draftmate running back Ezekiel Elliott, and security-blanket tight end Dalton Schultz. In their place, veteran receiver Brandin Cooks has joined the team, and the offense will be guided by new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, with head coach Mike McCarthy expected to call the plays.
Prescott's eighth season with the Cowboys is marked with concerns. Despite career highs in red-zone completion percentage and red-zone touchdown rate, his yards per pressured pass attempt have steadily declined. Additionally, Prescott's rushing production has been largely absent the past three seasons. His future performance without Elliott's renowned pass protection will be an area to watch closely.
The Cowboys have turned to RB Tony Pollard as the lead running back. Pollard's numbers thus far in his career are impressive, with statistics that mirror the great Barry Sanders through two seasons. Unfortunately, the 26-year-old RB faced a significant injury in last year's Divisional Round against the San Francisco 49ers. He suffered a high ankle sprain and fractured fibula, leading to surgery. In March, the Cowboys placed the franchise tag on Pollard, guaranteeing his salary for the 2023 NFL Season. He reportedly looked fine at the start of training camp as the team ramped up his participation. The Cowboys are betting on his ability to transition from a supportive role to a star, especially as he has shown promising versatility in the passing game.
The Cowboys have made a bold decision to move away from the offensive strategies led by Kellen Moore, who was sometimes seen as the potential future head coach. The team's inability to shine during crucial playoff moments, most notably in their two postseason losses to the San Francisco 49ers, may have spurred these changes. With Schottenheimer at the helm as offensive coordinator, there is an expectation that the Cowboys will prioritize hitting receivers on the move and potentially adjust their route strategies.
The upcoming season is one of mixed expectations for the Cowboys. The optimism stemming from recent years' success is palpable yet tempered by significant changes and unproven strategies. As the team heads into training camp, fans and analysts will closely observe how these adjustments in personnel and approach play out. The stage is set for the Cowboys to either continue their impressive resurgence or face challenges that could test their recent success.
Pregame.com's Dave Essler & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Dallas Cowboys 2023 season.
The Betting Landscape
The Dallas Cowboys, a team often associated with preseason Super Bowl hopes, find themselves in the spotlight again for the 2023 NFL season. The betting history for America's team illustrates a continuous sense of optimism, paralleled by a consistent failure to transform those promising odds into postseason victories.
Starting the 2023 offseason with Super Bowl odds at 16/1, the Cowboys' odds have now been shortened to 13/1, ranking them as the sixth title favorite, just behind the Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, Bills, and Bengals. This tier of optimism for the team's chances to win the NFL is a familiar scenario for the franchise, as evidenced by historical odds. The Cowboys strolled into September with preseason Vegas Super Bowl odds between 12/1 and 16/1 in 2020, 2017, 2015, 2011 & 2010. The last time the Cowboys had shorter than 10/1 odds was in 2008 when Wade Phillips's team, fresh off a 13-3 season, began with 6-to-1 odds, second favorites only behind the New England Patriots.
Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Odds:
February: 16/1 (sixth favorite)
Current: 13/1 (sixth favorite)
Despite these recurring high expectations, the Cowboys' record in turning odds into postseason success has been dismal. The team hasn't advanced to the Conference Championship game since 1995, with merely four playoff game victories in the new millennium. This pattern not only highlights the continued faith in the Cowboys but also the difficulties in meeting and surpassing these expectations. Whether the oddsmakers' confidence stems from performance potential or simply from catering to the team's passionate betting fanbase, the Cowboys are confronted with the enduring challenge of fulfilling the perennial promise. The betting world is keenly watching to see if 2023 will be the year when they rise to the occasion or maintain a pattern that has endured for decades.
The best way to get to the Super Bowl is to earn a Bye or at the very least a home playoff game. The only way to do that is to win your division or, in the Cowboys' case, the vaunted NFC East. Famously, no team has won back-to-back NFC East Titles since Andy Reid dominated the division with Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia a mind-boggling 18 seasons ago. Will there be the 19th novel winner of the most prominent NFL Division? Two things are for sure: It would make for good TV, and the Cowboys are in the best position to dethrone Philadelphia and become the 2023 NFC East champions.
NFC East Odds (consensus as of August 22nd):
PHI Eagles: -115
DAL Cowboys: +180
NY Giants: +750
WAS Commanders: 13 to 1
The Cowboys' quest for the division crown will likely hinge on their performance against the Eagles in Weeks 9 and 14, and the Cowboys will look to validate the belief of both their faithful backers and the betting markets. Cowboys are currently 3-point underdogs at Philadelphia in Week 9, and 1-point home favorites in Week 14.
The Vegas win total market is projecting a solid season for the Cowboys, with expectations that Dallas will notch over 10 wins. Recent betting activity has shifted the line from a flat 10 (priced at -110 either way) to now Over 10 at -130 odds, reflecting growing confidence in the team. This movement in the betting line signals a prevailing belief that the Cowboys are primed for a third successful regular season.
DAL Cowboys Win Total (consensus odds as of August 22nd):
Over 10: (-130)
Under 10: (+110)
In terms of playoff chances, the Cowboys are priced at -230 to make the playoffs, an implied 68% chance of making a third consecutive appearance. This prediction aligns with the franchise's objectives and adds further intrigue to an already captivating season ahead.
Will the Cowboys Make the Playoffs?
Yes: -230 (~68%)
No: +195 (~32%)
Whether it's Super Bowl aspirations or divisional supremacy, the Cowboys' betting landscape portrays a team with all the tools to achieve greatness. The real game, however, will be played on the field, where Dallas must prove they can meet and exceed these expectations. The journey begins now, and the stakes have never been higher. The 2023 NFL season beckons and the Cowboys are ready to answer the call.
Week 1 Showdown
The Dallas Cowboys are preparing for a Sunday night showdown against their NFC East rivals, the New York Giants, to launch their 2023 NFL season. Scheduled for the prime-time slot, the encounter serves as a chance for the Giants to exact revenge after being swept by the Cowboys in each of the last two seasons. Taking place at MetLife Stadium, the game is expected to be an intense battle as both teams seek to establish their season's trajectory.
When the NFL Schedule was released in May, bookmakers opened with the Dallas Cowboys as 3-point road favorites over the Giants for this game. Since then, bettors have eagerly backed the Cowboys at that spread, causing the line to shift to Dallas being 3.5-point favorites by consensus odds. This move off of the key number of -3 indicates a substantial shift in confidence for Dallas's opening game and mirrors the broad confidence bettors have displayed for the team, as evidenced by the uptick in their Vegas win total. Those who placed their bets early at Dallas -3 are now in a particularly favorable spot compared to those betting on the current line.
Last season's encounters between these two teams were memorable, with Dallas winning 23-16 at MetLife Stadium and securing a second victory on Thanksgiving, 28-20. The Cowboys were 11-8 ATS last season, while the Giants were an NFL-best 14-5 against the spread. This adds another layer of intrigue to the betting landscape.
One of the key matchups to watch in this Week 1 duel is the Giants' run defense against the Dallas rushing attack. Saquon Barkley's presence on the field for the Giants will be crucial, as various betting props surround his performance, including MVP and Offensive Player of the Year odds, as well as his season's rushing yards and touchdowns.
On the other side, the Cowboys will be keen to continue their dominance over their divisional foes and prove that last season's victories were no flukes. Mike McCarthy's crew has demonstrated a strong strategic grasp of their games against the Giants, and they'll be expected to deploy a well-calculated approach once again.
The game's standalone nature, featured on Sunday Night Football, will undoubtedly attract a lot of attention from bettors, not just for its divisional rivalry but also for the various betting angles available. The atmosphere is set to be electric, and the strategies employed by both teams will be closely scrutinized.
For the Giants, this game represents a chance to show their mettle against a team that had their number last season and to capitalize on their impressive against-the-spread record. They will seek to leverage their home-field advantage and the unpredictable elements of a season opener.
For the Cowboys, it's about maintaining control over their divisional rival and starting the season on a high note. Dak Prescott has an impressive 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) record vs. the division rival Giants during his career. The shift in the betting line reflects the market's trust in Dallas's ability to continue to exert dominance in this matchup.
The stage is set for a gripping Week 1 showdown that will not only ignite the rivalry between these two NFC East contenders but also offer an absorbing contest for bettors, filled with opportunities and uncertainties that define the early stages of the NFL season. The nation's eyes will be on MetLife Stadium on Sunday night, where history, rivalry, and the unknown will collide in a game that promises to be both an exhilarating contest and a meaningful statement for both teams' 2023 campaigns.
Player Spotlights
Dak Prescott (QB)
Over/Under 3950.5 Passing Yards
22-to-1 to win NFL MVP (tied for 10th favorite)
Dak Prescott is looking to regain his top form in the 2023 season. In his last fully healthy season (2021), Prescott recorded 4,449 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions. However, a rough, injury-hindered 2022 saw him limited to only 23 touchdowns vs. 15 interceptions, amassing only 2,860 total passing yards in twelve games, far under his preseason yardage prop. With the loss of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and a shift in offensive weapons, including the addition of Brandin Cooks, the pressure is on Prescott to adapt.
Tony Pollard (RB)
Over/Under 1000.5 Rushing Yards
35-to-1 to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year (tied for 15th favorite)
Tony Pollard successfully edged out Ezekiel Elliott as the team's top RB option last season, achieving his first 1,000-yard campaign. With an impressive career average of 5.1 yards per carry, Pollard is poised for a potentially huge year in 2023, even after recovering from offseason surgery. The key question surrounding Pollard will be whether he can maintain efficiency if the team dramatically increases his volume of attempts, and how he will adjust to being the leader of the Dallas backfield. His ability to handle an increased workload could make him a breakout star.
CeeDee Lamb (WR)
Over/Under 1100.5 Receiving Yards
35-to-1 to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year (tied for 15th favorite)
CeeDee Lamb is emerging as one of the league's premier receivers. In his first season without Amari Cooper in 2022, Lamb set career highs in targets (156), receptions (107), yards (1,359), and touchdowns (nine). He's expected to once again command 150-plus targets from Prescott, and as the No. 1 target for the Cowboys, Lamb should be among the next receivers considered for high production in 2023 after the top-tier names like Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Cooper Kupp. His connection with Prescott and ability to make big plays will be vital for the Cowboys' aerial attack.
The Cowboys' success in 2023 will heavily depend on these key players. Prescott's return to form, Pollard's potential breakout season, and Lamb's continued rise as a top receiver will be essential storylines to watch. Monitoring these players' performances and adapting betting strategies accordingly could lead to valuable opportunities in the sports betting market. Dallas fans and bettors alike should keep an eye on these star players as the season unfolds.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Dallas Cowboys, in their ongoing pursuit of their first conference championship appearance since 1995, have orchestrated a focused and strategic offseason. This approach reflects the team's determination to capitalize on a successful 12-5 campaign in the 2022 season.
The most noticeable change began with a shift in the coaching staff. The transition from Kellen Moore to Brian Schottenheimer at offensive coordinator might initially seem like a downgrade. However, the retention of Head Coach Mike McCarthy as the play caller, along with the continued presence of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, arguably strengthens the core of the Cowboys' coaching staff.
A significant aspect of the Cowboys' offseason strategy has been retaining key players who were instrumental to last year's success. Within free agency, Tony Pollard's performance was highlighted, earning a Pro Bowl nomination in 2022 and ranking as Pro Football Focus's (PFF) No. 4 running back. By applying the franchise tag to Pollard, the Cowboys have ensured his dynamic skills remain central to their offensive game plan.
Further emphasizing the team's focus on maintaining its defensive strength, the Cowboys re-signed Leighton Vander Esch to a two-year, $11 million deal and safety Donovan Wilson to a three-year, $21 million contract. Vander Esch, ranked as PFF's No. 23 linebacker last season, underlines his potential despite previous injury worries.
One of the more unexpected moves was the release of Ezekiel Elliott, who averaged only 3.9 yards per touch in 2022. This decision highlights the team's readiness to make challenging choices, enabling them to fully exploit Pollard's league-leading 5.9 yards-per-touch average.
In the trade market, Dallas demonstrated its ambition by acquiring two seasoned professionals, cornerback Stephon Gilmore and wide receiver Brandin Cooks. These trades, involving late-round picks, augment both defense and offense, enhancing the team's depth and experience.
In the latest offseason development, the Cowboys have ended Zack Martin's holdout by agreeing on an extension that will pay Martin more than $18 million for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with a total increase of $8.5 million fully guaranteed. This move is seen as a win for both parties, with Martin securing more money and guarantees over the next two seasons, and the Cowboys retaining a critical piece of their team without entering into a particularly risky contract. Martin, an eight-time Pro Bowl selection and one of the most dominant interior offensive linemen in NFL history, will likely see his career entirely with the Cowboys solidified by this new deal.
The strategy to release Elliott, along with retaining key contributors like Martin, Pollard, Vander Esch, and Wilson, and adding the likes of Gilmore and Cooks, has shaped an offseason that the Vegas betting market has appreciated as previously mentioned. In the media, CBS Sports gave the Cowboys' offseason an A grade.
These well-calculated moves have not only maintained the core of the Cowboys but have also introduced experienced and proven players to bolster their 2023 ambitions.
In a complex web of decisions involving coaching staff, free agency, and trades, the Cowboys have navigated their way toward what seems to be a potent blend of retained talent and new acquisitions. As the new season looms, the real test will be translating these offseason maneuvers into on-field victories, inching closer to the coveted NFC Championship Game that has eluded them for so long.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The Dallas Cowboys, a franchise driven by its relentless pursuit of excellence, reflects an intriguing composition of strength and potential as revealed through a careful examination of advanced metrics and power ratings. Ending the 2022 season on a note of promise, the Cowboys finished 6th in most advanced metrics, following the five current Super Bowl favorites - the Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, Bengals, and Bills.
Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average)
An insightful perspective can be derived from analyzing the Cowboys' performance using DVOA, a metric that measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to the league average, adjusted for situation and opponent. Here's how the Cowboys fared:
Total DVOA: 6th
Offensive DVOA: 15th
Defensive DVOA: 2nd
The team's impressive standing in Total DVOA is somewhat counterbalanced by a middling offensive ranking, especially considering how much more predictive offense has proven to be for NFL teams on a year year-over-year basis. However, their remarkable 2nd place in Defensive DVOA underscores the team's ability to stifle opposition, showcasing a vital aspect of the Cowboys' overall strategy. Adding former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore to this already loaded group has Cowboy fans dreaming of one of the all-time dominant defensive units guided by the leadership of uber-respected defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn.
NFELO.com Power Ratings:
The NFL Elo (NFELO), a system that ranks teams based on various factors including EPA (Expected Points Added), paints a picture of a Cowboys team standing tall among its peers, ranking 6th in the NFL almost five points better than an average team.
NFELO: 6th, +4.9 Points better than an average team
This robust rating reinforces the notion that the Cowboys possess the attributes required to compete with the league's elites.
Kevin Cole's "Unexpected Points" Power Ratings
Respected analyst Kevin Cole's breakdown adds further texture to the understanding of the Cowboys' performance:
Overall Ranking: 7th Best, +1.83 points better than an average team
Offense Contribution: 14th, with +1.0 points of value added.
Defense Contribution: 9th, with +0.83 points of value added.
Cole's ratings offer a more nuanced interpretation of the team's capabilities. While the offense adds value, the slight subtraction of value from the defense appears counterintuitive to the 2nd ranking in Defensive DVOA. This discrepancy might stimulate conversations around the true potency of the defense and how it integrates within the entire team dynamic.
The Dallas Cowboys' 2022 performance, as reflected through various metrics and ratings, illustrates a team in a promising position to take the next step. The contrast between their offensive and defensive metrics offers both opportunities and challenges, reflecting areas of strength and potential growth. As the Cowboys march towards the 2023 season, these advanced analytics will be key in shaping their approach, and potentially a guide to the elusive success that they seek. The fusion of a formidable defense and an evolving offense signals a team poised for further accomplishment. The intricate analytics, encompassing both commendation and critique, sets the stage for an exciting season, with the Cowboys keen to translate these numbers
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