Setting the Stage
Another year and all is good in 49ers-land – with a strong coaching staff in place, and All-World talent in every corner of the locker room. No worries, right? Well, there is just one small problem: Nobody has any idea what’s going to happen in the near, middle and long term as far as the 49ers quarterback position, the most important position, of course, in all of football.
The departure of Jimmy Garoppolo to the Las Vegas Raiders has left a void, and a thrilling competition is taking shape to fill it. Three talented individuals are contending for the starting role: Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, and Sam Darnold.
Ostensibly, Brock Purdy, who made waves as an heroic Mr. Irrelevant last season, is on schedule to be available by the end of training camp after a successful recovery from off-season elbow surgery. We’ll see. With an already slight frame for NFL QB, questions remain whether Purdy will sustain the necessary velocity to find success in the NFL after undergoing elbow surgery that has been likened to a Tommy John procedure.
Of course, the 49ers invested their 2021, 2022, and 2023 first-round picks in the promise of Trey Lance, who now waits in the wings. And Sam Darnold, another former #3 pick from another much-hyped QB draft, seeks redemption and aims to make a triumphant return to the starting lineup, elbowing out the other two.
This narrative takes on heightened significance given the overall depth and prowess of the 49ers' roster. Besides the quarterback position, the team possesses perhaps unparalleled talent, with Pro Bowlers dominating almost every position group. This puts them firmly among the top contenders in the NFC, as their odds reflect. But questions linger. Will a workable quarterback solution emerge in time? Will the 49ers opt to cut their losses with Trey Lance, or do we take them at their word that they have a multitude of viable options, including Lance?
Even as Brock Purdy heals, his spectacular performance last season continues to inspire faith within the organization's leadership, from General Manager John Lynch to Head Coach Kyle Shanahan. Simultaneously, Sam Darnold’s foray into the 49ers' playbook has stirred up a whirlpool of speculation. Darnold and Lance have been sharing first-team reps at QB throughout the summer, prompting conjecture from national media figures like Adam Schefter and Albert Breer on Darnold's potential role within the team. Their debates revolve around Darnold's suitability for the team as Purdy's backup, a conversation which coincides with broader questions about Lance's overall progress or lack thereof.
Local sentiments are more skewed towards Lance. Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area recently disputed the idea that the 49ers have grown disillusioned with Lance. He posits that the team's fondness for Lance has only deepened since his arrival, despite a moderate record of 2-2 in the four games he has started so far in his NFL career.
With a formidable roster that boasts Pro Bowlers like Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, amongst others, in nearly every position, the quarterback decision becomes pivotal for the 49ers' 2023 campaign. The 49ers are looking to find the straw that stirs the drink, hoping that Purdy can pick up where he left off, cognizant that the 49ers offseason QB plan has rarely translated to exactly what transpires over the 18 weeks and in the playoffs.
A faction of the 49ers' fanbase - the 'Trey Lance truthers' - stands unwavering in their faith in Lance's potential, despite his challenges. Simultaneously, an army of Trey Lance doubters are quick to highlight and underline errant throws such as this one from a mini-camp.
With the stage set, the spotlight shines brightly on the quarterback position. The coming months will reveal who emerges as the starter and who will play a supporting role. The consequences of this decision could validate the team's past investments, catalyze a shift in their future direction. Nestled amongst these developments is a talent-laden roster that has the potential to make the 49ers a formidable force in the NFC this season, and potentially earn them their first Super Bowl victory since the 1994 NFL Season.
Steve Fezzik discusses his betting prediction for the 49ers' upcoming season with RJ Bell, AJ Hoffman & Scott Seidenberg.
The Betting Landscape
The 49ers are right in the mix among the Super Bowl favorites, potentially due to an easy path through a topsy-turvy NFC West division. The Vegas betting market has the 49ers at +950 to capture the Lombardi Trophy, a position they share with last year's AFC Champions, the Cincinnati Bengals. The Kansas City Chiefs (+600), the Philadelphia Eagles (+750), and the Buffalo Bills (+850) lead the pack, but the 49ers are not far behind.
TOP 5 Super Bowl Favorites (consensus odds as of July 11th):
KC Chiefs: +600
PHI Eagles: +750
BUF Bills: +850
CIN Bengals: +950
SF 49ers: +950
In their quest for Super Bowl glory, the 49ers must first navigate the NFC West, a division that has not had a repeated champion since the Rams in 2017 & 2018. A powerhouse division in recent vintage, this year the NFC West appears to be a two-horse race between the 49ers and their top rival, the Seattle Seahawks, with LA Rams & Arizona Cardinals expected to be rebuilding. The 49ers are currently the frontrunners with odds of -165, but the Seahawks aren't too far behind at +200. The Los Angeles Rams (+850) and the Arizona Cardinals (25/1) are predicted to have a tougher road ahead.
NFC West Odds (consensus odds as of July 11th):
SF 49ers -160
SEA Seahawks: +200
LA Rams +850
ARI Cardinals 25/1
Notably, while the Seahawks have seen a huge upgrade in their chances – their odds dropping from 5/1 earlier in the offseason to now only +200 – the 49ers, with odds at -160 over the same time period, have barely seen a budge. Instead, the Seahawks upgrade has come as the Rams & Cardinals have been continually downgraded by the market.
This shift in the power dynamics within the division is noteworthy. With three of the four teams in the NFC West predicted to win fewer than half of their games, the division's average win total stands at only 7.63 games, just above the league's worst division, the AFC South, whose teams on average are expected to win 7.55 games.
To put into additional context just how paltry this competition is, NFL analytics expert Kevin Cole's final power ratings rank AFC South Teams as three of the four worst teams in the league. And the NFC West this year is projected to be nearly just as bad. The 49ers, with an over/under win total of over 10.5 games, are the outliers in this division, substantially outpacing their divisional rivals.
The Seattle Seahawks, despite proving doubters wrong in 2022 with a 9-8 record and a subsequent playoff run, are only projected to replicate that record in the coming season. Notably, ESPN analyst Louis Riddick predicted that the Seahawks might topple the 49ers to win the NFC West, mirroring a prediction made earlier in the offseason by Pregame.com’s RJ Bell at remarkable +500 odds. Given the uncertainties within the division, the 49ers' journey to divisional dominance might be more challenging than it appears.
Vegas has placed the 49ers' Win Total at Over/Under 10.5 with significant juice to the Over, implying a win expectation of approximately 10.8 games. This places the 49ers among the league's top 5 in terms of win totals, trailing only the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bengals.
Top 5 Highest NFL Win Totals (Odds as of July 11th)
KC Chiefs: O/U 11.5 Wins (Over -135)
PHI Eagles: O/U 11.5 Wins
CIN Bengals: O/U 11.5 Wins (Under -130)
SF 49ers: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -145)
BUF Bills: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -140)
In conclusion, despite being among the favorites for the Super Bowl and leading the pack within their division, the 49ers are set for a season of high stakes and unforeseen challenges. The betting landscape suggests that they are well-positioned for a successful campaign, but as always, the unpredictability of football ensures an exciting season ahead.
Week 1 Showdown
The San Francisco 49ers kick off their 2023 season on the road, clashing against the Pittsburgh Steelers at the legendary Acrisure Stadium (colloquially known, of course, as Heinz Field). Scheduled for Sunday, September 10, this contest will present a fascinating immediate litmus test for the 49ers chosen starting quarterback, whomever that might be, as well as for the rest of the team as they embark on a new season.
Initially, the 49ers opened as three-point favorites on the road, but recent odds show a shift in bettor sentiment. As of now (July 11th), the line has moved down to SF 49ers -2.5, suggesting that bettors are leaning more towards the Steelers covering the spread. This decrease from the key number of -3 indicates a noteworthy amount of money wagered on the Steelers since the Week 1 Odds were posted in mid-May.
In terms of the over/under market, the total for the game currently sits at 41, suggesting a low-scoring matchup. In fact, this total is the second lowest on the board for any Week 1 game, only surpassed by the Cardinals @ Commanders showdown, otherwise known as Howell vs. McCoy (O/U 40).
The Niners, following a successful campaign that led them to a consecutive NFC Championship game appearance, are expected to carry their momentum into the new season. However, there's some uncertainty at the quarterback position with Trey Lance’s position on the mean unclear with Sam Darnold on his coattails, and a recovering Brock Purdy, still not 100% certain to be ready for Week 1. Head coach Kyle Shanahan anticipates Purdy's availability for the season opener, given no setbacks during the training camp.
On the other side, the Steelers, helmed by coach Mike Tomlin, finished their last season with a 9-8 record. While they missed the playoffs, they managed to avoid a sub-.500 season, making it now an incredible 16 consecutive seasons for the coach and 19 seasons for the franchise without a losing record. Historically, Tomlin-led teams have shown a tendency to exceed expectations when considered underdogs, especially at home, with an impressive 11-9 SU, 12-4-4 (75%) ATS record as a home underdog throughout his tenure. These stats hint at a potentially strong performance from the Steelers, which could be driving some of the action their way in the betting market.
Despite the recent movement, the 49ers still hold an implied win probability of 58% according to their status as -150 favorites. This suggests that while the market anticipates a closer contest, the 49ers are still seen as the team more likely to emerge victorious. The takeback on the Steelers is +130.
An interesting aspect to consider is the offensive performance of both teams. The 49ers, under coach Shanahan, are known for their slow starts, while the Steelers' offense, which ranked 26th in scoring last season, has room for improvement. These are factoring the market is considering in posting the low total of 41.
As the 2023 season opener draws near, this contest between the San Francisco 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers promises to be an enthralling battle. Pittsburgh will trot out Kenny Picket against any one of the 49ers unproven QBs, and the 49ers’ Nick Bosa (reigning DPOY & 4th favorite to repeat as DPOY), and the Steelers’ TJ Watt (3rd favorite to win DPOY, and the collective team defenses are expected to rule the day.
Player Spotlights
Brock Purdy (QB)
45/1 MVP Odds
[No O/U listed]
After finishing last season with a 13-4 record, the 49ers are keen on replicating the same success and possibly even surpassing it this season. At the helm of their offense is the young Brock Purdy, who despite not having an O/U due to the unclear health picture, has managed to keep his MVP odds competitive at 45/1. The same line is currently held by seasoned QBs such as Kenny Picket and Derek Carr, an indication of the faith the market has in Purdy. His performance this season will be crucial to the 49ers' chances of success.
The Athletic's David Lombardi Polls 49ers Fans on their preference for San Fransico's Week 1 QB-starter.
Christian McCaffrey (RB)
O/U 900.5 Yards
+1300 to win Offensive Player of the Year
Coming over from the Panthers, McCaffrey gave the 49ers' offense a whole new dynamic, which they are keen to maintain as they aim for a Super Bowl run. Despite the 75 yards decrease from last year's O/U, McCaffrey is still tipped to have a successful season with the 49ers, maintaining his dynamic talent throughout the season. The market favors McCaffrey at +1300 to bag his first NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award. Keeping an eye on McCaffrey's performance this season could yield handsome returns for savvy sports bettors.
Deebo Samuel (WR)
Over/Under 725.5 Receiving Yards
30/1 to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year
After describing his last season as "awful," Deebo Samuel is determined to make a significant impact this season. He's vowed to improve on his 56 catches for 632 yards and two touchdowns, in addition to his 232 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The market is slightly optimistic with an O/U of 725.5 yards for Samuel's receiving yards and places him at 30/1 to win the NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Expect Samuel to come out strong and possibly exceed these expectations.
Nick Bosa (DE)
Over/Under 15.5 Sacks
+1200 to win Defensive Player of the Year
Nick Bosa's influence on the 49ers' defense last season was undeniable. With a record 18.5 sacks, he carried the team's defense on his back, earning him the DPOY honors. Even with a high O/U of 15.5 sacks, highest in the league, there is a strong belief that Bosa can meet or possibly surpass this number. Bosa's performance will be critical for the 49ers' defense, and his potential to bag the DPOY again this year puts him at odds of +1200. Sports bettors should monitor Bosa's performance closely.
The success of the 49ers this season hinges heavily on these key players. Purdy's leadership, McCaffrey's dynamism, Samuel's determination to improve, and Bosa's defensive prowess. The smart sports bettors will have their eyes on these players' performances and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Offseason Chess Moves
In a bid to make a run for the championship in 2023, the San Francisco 49ers had a busy offseason, making several significant additions and experiencing notable departures.
Perhaps the boldest move was the acquisition of Javon Hargrave, the former Eagles' star interior defender. He was signed on a four-year, $84 million deal with $40 million fully guaranteed at signing. Despite his struggle in run defense, ranking low with a 49.0 run-defense grade in the previous season, Hargrave's reputation as an elite pass rusher is expected to greatly contribute to the 49ers' ambitions. His signing, however, doesn't completely address the team's need for strong defense against ground assaults. The 49ers will need to find additional help up front capable of standing firm on early downs, allowing the pass rushers to dominate during passing situations.
San Francisco also bolstered its defensive line with the additions of Kerry Hyder and Austin Bryant, while bringing in Tashaun Gipson Sr. to strengthen the secondary. On the offensive side, the 49ers signed centers Jake Brendel and Jon Feliciano, but the addition of quarterback Sam Darnold is perhaps the most intriguing move. Darnold's acquisition has sparked competition at the QB position, intensifying rumors about Trey Lance's potential trade.
Despite adding new blood, the team suffered significant losses, with QB Jimmy Garoppolo heading to the Raiders, offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey moving to the Broncos, and defensive players Charles Omenihu, Samson Ebukam, Emmanuel Moseley, Azeez Al-Shaair, and Jimmie Ward also departing. These exits may significantly impact the 49ers' defense, which will be in a rebuilding phase at the start of the season.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, the 49ers made some unusual picks, the most controversial being the decision to draft a kicker, Jake Moody, in the third round. The team also used their picks to add depth to their roster, drafting safety Ji’Ayir Brown from Penn State in the third round, and picking up additional players in later rounds.
Following the departure of DeMeco Ryans to the Houston Texans as their head coach, several key 49ers staffers, including Bobby Slowik, joined him. In response, the San Francisco 49ers welcomed Steve Wilks as their new defensive coordinator. Wilks, formerly the interim head coach for the Carolina Panthers, is charged with the delicate task of enhancing an already stellar defense, which concluded the last season as No. 1 in various categories. Renowned for his subtle adjustments, he is expected to integrate his unique techniques without unsettling the existing successful defensive framework.
Bobby Slowik's association with the Shanahan coaching legacy runs deep. His father, Bob Slowik, had ties with Mike Shanahan dating back to their Denver days. The younger Slowik began his coaching career alongside Kyle Shanahan and his father in Washington, where Kyle served as an Offensive Coordinator and Bobby was a defensive assistant. Slowik later rejoined Kyle's staff in 2017 as a Defensive Quality Control coach before transitioning to the offensive side of the ball. His move to Houston marks his first NFL role outside of the Shanahan coaching tree.
Wilks' appointment was met with enthusiasm within the 49ers community, particularly from running back Christian McCaffrey, who previously played under him at the Carolina Panthers. Stepping into the significant shoes left by Ryans, Wilks is eager to bring his expertise to a defense already teeming with talent, such as end Nick Bosa and linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, among others. His past experience suggests an increase in blitzing and defensive back blitz rate, while continuing to emphasize zone coverage, introducing new dimensions to the team's existing schemes.
As the new season approaches, the 49ers have been strategic in filling gaps and enhancing their roster. However, lingering questions about the quarterback position, the offensive line, and the defensive secondary could present significant challenges as the team strives to maintain its momentum and make a strong push for the championship.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The San Francisco 49ers, a stalwart of competitive football, showcased an impressive overall performance throughout the 2023 season. Their robust presence on both sides of the football field is amply represented by a slew of advanced metrics and power ratings.
An examination of the Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a performance metric that contrasts a team's efficiency with the league average, demonstrates that the 49ers clinched the second spot in both the regular season and playoffs, trailing only the Buffalo Bills. A deeper dig reveals their offensive and defensive prowess with the 5th and 1st rankings respectively, according to Football Outsider's DVOA metric. The 49ers' 4th position in the Weighted DVOA can largely be attributed to the detrimental blow they suffered against the Philadelphia Eagles after losing Brock Purdy to injury.
In contrast, the NFL Elo (NFELO), a metric that utilizes EPA-based algorithms for ranking, positioned the 49ers as the 3rd best team in their power ratings. However, if the quarterback adjustment is removed, they reign supreme over all NFL teams by this measure.
Complementary to these ratings, Kevin Cole, a respected analyst, positioned the 49ers 5th in his final Power Ratings. According to his calculations, the 49ers were +3.75 points better than an average team. Interestingly, despite Cole ranking their defense #1 and offense #7, both sides contributed nearly equally to their ratings, adding about +1.9 points of value each. This phenomenon underscores the rarity of such significant defensive contribution in comparison to offense, given that offense is typically viewed as more predictive (i.e., valuable) in the NFL's advanced analytics community. Indeed, according to Cole's metrics, only one other team, the New England Patriots, enjoyed a defensive value boost greater than +1.5 points.
Overall, the advanced metrics sketch a picture of the San Francisco 49ers as a well-rounded team with a potent mix of offensive creativity and defensive solidity. Despite minor variations across the ratings, they reinforce the 49ers' standing as a formidable force within the league as they prepare for the next season. Their unique blend of offensive and defensive contributions to their ratings signals a team with balanced strength, a valuable asset in the high-stakes world of NFL competition.
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From Our Podcast: Check out Pregame.com's Steve Fezzik recommended bet for the 2023 49ers season on this clip from "RJ Bell's Dream Preview". Find all of Steve's Pregame picks here.
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