Setting the Stage
As the 2023 NFL season approaches, the Chicago Bears seem poised for a year of change and, they hope, improvement. Their 2022 season was far from a success, marred by a struggling offense and a lackluster record that led to significant changes in the off-season.
In a challenging season that culminated in the Bears finishing with the NFL's worst record, Matt Eberflus' first year as head coach had one silver lining - the substantial, albeit inconsistent, development of Justin Fields, their prospective franchise quarterback. Throughout 2022, Fields evolved impressively, illuminating their season with flashes of brilliance. Even though he grappled with a tendency to take too many sacks and had issues with intermediate throws, Fields' stats were nothing short of impressive. With nearly 3400 total yards, 25 combined touchdowns, and a 54 QBR to his credit, he exhibited significant advancement from his rookie numbers.
The Bears responded to the challenging season by focusing on bolstering their offensive line, betting on Fields' continued improvement, and surrounding him with more talent. Their most notable off-season move was acquiring DJ Moore from the Carolina Panthers. Moore, a three-time 1,000-yard receiver, is set to be the number one target for Fields, hopefully adding a new dynamic to the Bears' passing game.
Other notable returning players include wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, both entering contract years, and therefore expected to be in full form. The Bears are also hoping to improve their ground game, with Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, or Roschon Johnson vying for the starting role.
However, questions persist about the Bears' decisions during the 2023 NFL Draft. The team used three of their ten draft picks on offensive players, with the focus seemingly more on bolstering their defense. Their first-round selection, offensive tackle Darnell Wright from Tennessee, is a crucial addition to protect Fields, but some critics believe that more could have been done to enhance the offensive line.
Indeed, these decisions have sparked criticism from an anonymous NFL executive, who suggested that the Bears should have done more to provide Fields with the resources he needs to succeed, particularly by drafting another offensive weapon or lineman.
Despite this criticism, the Bears are hoping that the changes they've made, combined with Fields' development, will set the stage for a successful 2023 season. As the Bears head into training camp, fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see how these changes pan out, and whether Fields can rise to the challenge of leading the team to a winning season.
Pregame.com's AJ Hoffman discusses his betting prediction for the Bear's upcoming season with RJ Bell & Steve Fezzik.
The Betting Landscape
The 2023 betting landscape for the Chicago Bears has shown a subtle yet promising shift towards optimism, despite the team coming off a disappointing 3-14 season in 2022. As the new season approaches, the betting markets are showing confidence in Chicago's prospects for a turnaround. Let's dive into the specifics.
The Bears commenced the 2023 season with Super Bowl odds of 90/1, per Pregame.com's consensus from seven sportsbooks. A few months down the line, the Bears have seen an upgrade, now sitting at 60/1. While they are far from being favorites, it suggests that the market sees a more favorable outlook for the team, a testament to their potential upside heading into the new season.
In the divisional race, the Bears have seen a similar uplift. The team opened with NFC North odds of +500 back in early March, only to be upgraded to +400 by mid-July.
NFC North Odds (consensus odds as of July 21st):
DET Lions: +140
MIN Vikings: +290
CHI Bears: +400
GB Packers: +400
These odds reflect a division that's potentially up for grabs, with the Bears neck-and-neck with the Packers and just a smidge behind the Vikings and the frontrunner Lions.
To provide perspective on Chicago's projected performance this year, let's take a glance at the NFL Win Totals. The Bears' over/under sits at 7.5 games, with significant juice to the Over (-120), implying a higher probability of surpassing this number. This mark, if surpassed, would more than double their win total from 2022 and underscores the market's anticipation of significant improvement, with much riding on the development of QB Justin Fields.
In the realm of playoff possibilities, the Bears are currently at +160 to make the postseason, implying a 34% chance of returning to the playoffs for the first time since the 2020 season. Conversely, they sit at -190 (or a 66% chance) to miss the playoffs.
Will Chicago Make the 2023-2024 NFL Playoffs?
Yes: +160 (~34%)
No: -190 (~66%)
Despite some optimism, the road to the playoffs will not be easy. However, several media outlets believe the Bears can exceed expectations. ESPN’s Mike Clay projects the Bears could go over the 7.5-win mark, largely attributed to QB Justin Fields' expected leap in performance. Fox Sports anticipates a potential late-season turnaround for the team, while Pro Football Network foresees a competitive NFC North ready for a battle of middling rosters. CBS Sports & Sports Illustrated were more pessimistic projecting 6 and 5 wins for Chicago, respectively.
The Bears are entering the 2023 season with many moving parts. The pressure is on for Justin Fields to solidify his position as a franchise quarterback, and their recent additions on both sides of the ball will need to prove their worth. The betting market, however, sees some potential upside for the Bears, setting the stage for what could be a fascinating season in the Windy City.
In this dynamic and high-stakes betting landscape, the Bears, while not outright favorites, are looking to claw their way back into contention. It's an uphill journey, but the shifts in the betting odds show a glimmer of belief in a more competitive season for Chicago.
Week 1 Showdown
The Chicago Bears open their 2023 NFL season against none other than their age-old rivals, the Green Bay Packers. Set for September 10th, this game will mark the 205th regular season meeting between the two teams and it will be held at the Soldier Field, the home turf of the Bears. No other NFL teams have faced off against each other more often, making this a fitting and exciting way to kick off the Bears' 104th season.
On May 11th, with the release of the NFL schedule, Westgate initially set the Bears as -3 favorites. The betting line, however, was promptly adjusted to -2.5 within hours of its posting and has maintained this status since. The current odds offered by Bookmaker stand at Bears -2.5 (-115). Intriguingly, these odds were established a few weeks after the Packers' longtime quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, was traded to the New York Jets. Famously, Rodgers had a stellar 25-5 SU (23-7 ATS) record against the Bears, a fact he may or may not have been aware of. With Rodgers in the other conference, the Bears may hope to flip the script.
Despite the Packers leading the franchise series 105-95-6, including playoffs, it's crucial to remember that the Bears have also had their moments of dominance - just not lately. Since Brett Favre's time, long before Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay has consistently been on top against Chicago. In fact, if we take a look at the records since the Bears parted ways with Mike Ditka in 1993, the Bears have posted a dreadful 14-47 straight-up (19-41-1 against the spread) record against the Packers, including a 0-1 record straight-up and against the spread in the playoffs. This translates to a winning rate of less than 32% against the spread.
It's worth noting that Vegas odds are designed to make each game a 50/50 proposition, accounting for perceived team quality through the point spread. In this context, the Bears' performance against the Packers is comparable to flipping a coin 60 times and getting heads 41 or more - an event with a minuscule probability of about 0.3%. This underlines just how unusually poor the Bears' performance has been against Green Bay.
It’s worth remembering the Bears have had their day in this epic century’s old tussle. A memorable streak from 1990-91 saw four straight wins for the Bears, leading the series 79-57-6 in favor of Chicago at that point. Unfortunately, again, recent history leans heavily towards the Packers, with the team currently on an 8-game winning streak and having won 13 of the last 14 games. The only loss came in December 2018. The Bears have covered three times vs the Packers since the start of the 2016 NFL season.
With Jordan Love now leading the Packers, many predict a downturn for the team. This shift might provide an opening for the Bears to regain some ground in their historic rivalry, especially with home-field advantage. The Bears have a lot riding on this game, and a win would be a major confidence boost for the team as they head into the rest of the season.
The Packers, on the other hand, would be eager to prove that they can maintain their winning streak against the Bears and demonstrate their strength, even after significant changes in their line-up. A win for the Packers would provide much-needed assurance to their fans that the departure of Rodgers hasn't left them vulnerable.
The Bears have been nearly impossibly bad against Green Bay, their biggest rival, over the last 30 seasons. But that’s yesterday’s news. With a new era, underway for both franchises, Chicago hopes to change reframe the narrative of their team & the franchise out the gate to start the 2023 NFL season. On both sides of the field, we're looking at teams with a lot to prove, and with such high stakes, this showdown is shaping up to be an electrifying way to kick off the 2023 NFL season. As September 10th approaches, fans and bettors alike should prepare for a clash that's been a century in the making.
Player Spotlights
Justin Fields (QB)
Over/Under 2850.5 Passing Yards
Over/Under 825.5 Rushing Yards
20/1 to win NFL MVP
20/1 to win Offensive Player of the Year
+150 to be QB with Most Rushing Yards (DraftKings Sportsbook)
+1400 To Have 4000+ Regular Season Passing Yards (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Bears' young quarterback, Justin Fields, has been making steady improvements since he first took the helm. Despite a rough start to his career, his improvements towards the end of last season point to a potential breakout in 2023. Fields finished the last eight games of the 2022 season with an impressive 63.7% completion rate, 1,194 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. Notably, his dual-threat ability as a runner makes him a unique weapon. Fields rushing yardage prop is set at 825.5, a testament to his athletic prowess and ability to make plays with his legs. If his development continues on the trajectory seen in the last half of 2022, he could be one of the surprise packages of the 2023 season.
D'Onta Foreman (RB)
[No Rushing Yards Over/Under listed]
Despite being the starting RB on the ESPN Depth Chart, D'Onta Foreman's exact role within the Bears' offense remains uncertain. Foreman is coming off a career-year with the Panthers where he rushed for 914 yards and five touchdowns. His potential is undeniable, but with the likes of Khalil Herbert and rookie Roschon Johnson in the mix, Foreman may be part of a committee approach to the Bears' ground game. This might limit his individual output, but it's also worth remembering that a change of scene and a strong offensive line could open up opportunities for Foreman to excel in the Windy City.
DJ Moore (WR)
Over/Under 800.5 Receiving yards
DJ Moore's arrival at the Bears represents a significant upgrade to their receiving corps. Despite an underwhelming 2022 season by his standards, Moore's talent is well recognized. With career receiving yards of 1157 and 888 in the last two years respectively, the Over/Under prop for Moore is set at a conservative 800.5 yards for the upcoming season. The Bears' bolstered passing game, led by a maturing Justin Fields, could provide Moore with the platform to exceed these expectations. In addition, Moore's experience and proven ability could prove pivotal in a young Bears' offensive unit that is looking to improve on last year's performance. With a stable quarterback situation and an enhanced offensive line, the stage is set for Moore to potentially have his best season yet.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Bears have embarked on a carefully orchestrated series of moves in the 2023 offseason, replete with strategic trades and signings, aiming to optimize their team’s performance in the upcoming season. The Bears had the luxury of an extensive cap space, enabling a series of high-profile acquisitions, most notably linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, guard Nate Davis, and wide receiver D.J. Moore.
They started with securing former Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds on a four-year deal, at an average of $18 million per year. The linebacker’s remarkable breakout season in 2022, leading all off-ball linebackers in Pro Football Focus's coverage grade (90.0), was a considerable pull for the Bears. This signing was followed by a deal with former Eagles linebacker T.J. Edwards, who also boasted a substantial PFF coverage grade (78.4) in the previous season, placing him ninth in the overall linebacker rankings.
On the offensive front, guard Nate Davis was brought on board. A known powerhouse in the field, Davis conceded just three sacks and one hit in pass protection during the last season, maintaining three consecutive above-average overall PFF grades. His performance has proved him to be a valuable player, and his addition should aid the Bears in bolstering their offensive line.
However, the highlight of the offseason was the strategic move of trading their first overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft with the Carolina Panthers. This trade was not merely a shift of picks, but intricate maneuvering that ensured the acquisition of not just the ninth and 61st overall picks from Carolina, but also their first-round pick for the following year, their second-round pick for 2025, and the icing on the cake - wide receiver D.J. Moore.
Moore, though yet to fully break out, has shown potential for consistent performance given stable QB play. His inclusion in the team is not just an upgrade to the squad but a valuable asset for the future. Moore's presence in the lineup alongside Fields could prove instrumental in enhancing the latter's performance and subsequently the team's offensive efficacy.
The draft further added to their roster, with a focus on securing potential future stars. They picked up offensive tackle Darnell Wright in the first round and made intriguing selections like cornerback Tyrique Stevenson in the second round, and defensive interior Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens.
Yet, it's not all roses for the Bears, as the team didn’t add any significant pieces at the edge defender position. This was a glaring issue in the last season which may still pose a problem in the upcoming one. The market still hosts veteran edge players like Jadeveon Clowney, Leonard Floyd, and Frank Clark, but it remains to be seen if the Bears will invest further in this position or proceed with their current lineup.
The Chicago Bears' offseason strategy has set the stage for a season that is about more than merely accumulating wins. The stakes are high, with the future trajectory of the franchise hinging largely on whether Justin Fields emerges as the quarterback of the future. The inclusion of DJ Moore could spark Fields, propelling the team towards a dynamic offensive era unlike anything witnessed in recent Chicago history. However, the shadows of past quarterbacks loom ominously. Should Fields face severe injury or performance challenges, he risks treading the well-worn path of quarterbacks who failed to secure lasting success in the Windy City. The sobering reality is that the Bears have seen 16 different quarterbacks at the helm since their last playoff win and a total of 43 unique signal-callers since their last Super Bowl victory. Among these, only Mitch Trubisky has made it to the Pro Bowl, which he did as a second-year player in 2018. While narrowly missing out on the distinction in his own sophomore campaign, Fields aspires to shatter this trend and become the first multi-time Pro Bowler for the Bears since the era of Johnny Lujack (1951 and 1952) and Ed Brown (1955 and 1956) when the Bears still called Wrigley Field home.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The Chicago Bears' performance in the previous season doesn't paint an encouraging picture for the 2023 campaign, based on an examination of various power ratings and advanced metrics.
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a measure that contrasts a team's efficiency with the league average, shows the Bears at 30th. Their defensive ranking dips even further, reaching the bottom of the league at 32nd. This is especially troubling given that the defense was one of the main reasons for their downfall last year, particularly against the run following the trade of Roquan Smith to the Ravens in November.
Their struggles are further underlined in the Weighted DVOA metric, which gives more importance to later games, where they sit at 31st. The Bears' offensive unit fares slightly better, but still underwhelmingly, as it stands at the 25th spot in the Offensive DVOA rankings.
Turning to the NFL Elo (NFELO), a measure that utilizes EPA-based algorithms for ranking, the Bears have the unfortunate distinction of being ranked last, 32nd, and deemed 11.2 points worse than an average team. While the rating was influenced by the absence of Justin Fields in Week 18, even after adjusting for the quarterback's absence, the Bears would only improve to 29th, leapfrogging the Cardinals, Colts, and Texans.
Renowned analyst Kevin Cole's power ratings don't provide much solace either. The Bears are 30th overall, -4.86 points worse than an average team. The offensive unit detracts -2.86 points from the total, ranking at 28th, while the defense fares slightly better, at 30th, subtracting -2.0 points from the total.
Overall, these metrics underline the extensive challenges facing the Bears as they venture into the 2023 season. Improvement is crucial and the Bears will have to tackle their defensive deficiencies, particularly their struggles against the run. Furthermore, they'll need to augment offensive production, with a specific emphasis on optimizing the abilities of their promising quarterback, Justin Fields. Achieving stability and coherence on both ends of the field will be pivotal as the Bears aim to elevate their rankings and regain their footing in the competitive landscape of the NFL.
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From Our Podcast: Check out Pregame.com's AJ Hoffman's recommended bet for the 2023 Bears season on this clip from "RJ Bell's Dream Preview". Find all of AJ's Pregame picks here.
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