Setting the Stage
The Kansas City Chiefs, with their impressive run of two Super Bowl victories and three appearances in the past four years, have laid a strong claim to being considered a modern NFL dynasty. Guided by the formidable talent of Patrick Mahomes and the strategic acumen of Head Coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs displayed unmatched consistency and triumphed remarkably in the previous season – a year many had predicted to be a rebuilding period. Despite their spectacular Super Bowl-winning performance, conversations continue to swirl about whether the Chiefs' track record truly earns them the label of an NFL 'dynasty.' However, should they replicate their past victories in the upcoming season, such debates would undoubtedly be silenced.
At the start of the past season, the Chiefs were seen as potential contenders but not quite favorites. Following the exit of their ace wide receiver Tyreek Hill, critics were unsure of the team's prospects. The Vegas odds, according to a consensus from Pregame.com, had positioned the Chiefs as the third favorites to start the 2022 Season, with +950 odds, trailing behind the Buffalo Bills (+575) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+775).
However, against this backdrop of skepticism, the Chiefs embarked on a path that led to glory. They overcame odds and navigated a challenging season with a remarkable 14-3 record, climaxed by a Super Bowl victory that overturned all cautious predictions. Travis Kelce, the Chiefs' tight end, addressed this sentiment in the media, challenging what he perceived as lukewarm faith in the team.
Echoing Kelce's sentiment during the Super Bowl victory parade, Mahomes declared, "Before we started this season, the AFC West said we were rebuilding. I'm gonna be honest with you. I don't know what rebuilding means. In our rebuilding year, we're world champs."
However, as we move into the 2023 season, the Chiefs find themselves in an interesting situation. While they've managed to maintain their reign thus far, they face the daunting challenge of continuing their dominance without some of the key players who contributed to their earlier successes. Still to be determined is if and whether the Chiefs will reach an extension agreement with standout defensive tackle Chris Jones, which reportedly may be a hindrance to the Chiefs pursuit of free agent Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Regardless of the specifics of how their roster shakes out, the Chiefs have proven they can handle adversity, but the question remains - can they maintain their unparalleled recent success in the face of ongoing change?
Betting Landscape
Unlike last year, the Kansas City Chiefs enter this season as clear Super Bowl favorites. The Vegas betting market views the Chiefs as strong contenders with a +625 odds to win the championship, leading other top contenders including the Philadelphia Eagles (+725), Buffalo Bills (+850), Cincinnati Bengals (+950), and San Francisco 49ers (+950).
TOP 5 Super Bowl Favorites (Pregame.com Consensus Odds as of June 23rd, 2023)
KC Chiefs: +625
PHI Eagles: +725
BUF Bills: +850
CIN Bengals: +950
SF 49ers: +950
Turning our attention to the AFC West, last season the division, aside from the Chiefs, failed to meet expectations. The Broncos & Raiders fell far under their Win Total, while the Chargers matched their Win Total of 10 before an embarrassing collapse in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. However, significant strategic changes and personnel moves in the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders organizations have once again positioned the AFC West as one of the most challenging divisions in the league. Despite this, the Chiefs are -160 favorites to win the division, a much stronger position than their -110 odds at the start of the last season.
AFC West Odds (Pregame.com Consensus Odds as of June 23rd, 2023)
KC Chiefs -160
LA Chargers +325
DEN Broncos +550
LV Raiders 12-to-1
The strength of the AFC West compared to other divisions has seen a shift when analyzing the year-over-year average Win Totals among each team in the division. Last year, the AFC West held the highest aggregate Vegas expectations with an average win total of 9.9 per team, one full game more than the next highest-rated division, the AFC North. This year, however, the AFC West's average win total dropped to 9.1, placing it behind the AFC North (9.9) and the AFC East (9.4).
The Chiefs themselves have seen a significant upgrade in their own expected wins for 2023. After last year being lined at Over/Under 10.5 wins, this year Vegas has set their Win Total at 11.5, heavily favored on the over, suggesting an implied win expectation of approximately 11.8 games for the Chiefs.
Top 5 Highest NFL Win Totals:
KC Chiefs: O/U 11.5 Wins (Over -135)
PHI Eagles: O/U 11.5 Wins
CIN Bengals: O/U 11.5 Wins (Under -130)
BUF Bills: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -140)
SF 49ers: O/U 11 Wins (Under -140)
Despite the changing landscape in their division, the Chiefs stand out as strong contenders, bolstered by their clear strength in the Super Bowl odds market and high projected win total. The upcoming season promises to be a fascinating one as the Chiefs aim to meet and potentially exceed these high expectations.
Week 1 Showdown
This NFL season is set to kick-off with an exciting Thursday night matchup between the reigning Super Bowl champions, Kansas City Chiefs, and the revitalized Detroit Lions. The game is set to take place at 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 7th, and will be broadcast on NBC.
Opening odds placed the Chiefs as -7 favorites, with the majority of sportsbooks maintaining this line. However, notable deviations can be found at FanDuel and DraftKings, where the spread has slipped to Chiefs -6.5, an indicator of bettors' growing confidence in the Lions' abilities.
An upward trend can also be seen in the total points market, with the game's total points rising from an opening line of 53.5 to 54.5 in most places. In fact, certain sportsbooks such as the prominent offshore sportsbook Bookmaker have increased their Total to 55.0, which would match the highest ever total for a Week 1 game, previously seen in the 2015 matchup between the Falcons and Eagles.
At 54.5 this total would set a record for the highest total for an NFL kickoff game in sports betting history, exceeding the previous high of 54 when the Chiefs met the Texans in the 2020 season opener.
Historically, high totals in Week 1 haven't pointed to a significant trend towards either the Over or Under. Out of the eight games with a total higher than 53, the results have been evenly split: three Overs, three Unders, and two Pushes, with an average Over/Under Margin of 0.1.
The Kansas City Chiefs, led by superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, are no strangers to high-scoring season openers. Since Mahomes took the helm in 2018, the Chiefs have averaged an impressive 39.4 points per game in season openers. Despite significant changes in the receiver position during the Chiefs' offseason, their offense is expected to remain strong. Players such as Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and second-round rookie Rashee Rice are expected to step up to fill in the void left by departing receivers.
On the other side of the field, the Lions have become the 2023 offseason darling, predicted by many to be the best team in the NFC North. Indeed, the Lions are NFC North favorites for the first time in at least the last 30 years according to data from SportsOddsHistory.com. Last season, under the guidance of Jared Goff, Detroit ranked fifth in points per game with an average of 26.6. The Lions have also added running backs David Montgomery and first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs, giving their offense a strong boost. The Lions' defense will face a severe test against Mahomes and the Chiefs' powerful offense, but they're prepared with the addition of corners Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley, as well as the versatile C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
The season opener between the Chiefs and Lions is shaping up to be an explosive contest, with both teams looking to make a statement. While the Chiefs are striving to replicate their success and aim for a back-to-back Super Bowl victory, the Lions are determined to prove their worth and solidify their place at the top of the NFC North. With the highest ever total for an NFL kickoff game on the line, both teams will need to put on a show, and we're all set for an exhilarating start to the 2023 NFL season.
Player Spotlights
Patrick Mahomes (QB)
Over/Under 4800.5 Passing Yards
Over/Under 36.5 Passing TDs
After five remarkable seasons as the Kansas City Chiefs' starting QB, Patrick Mahomes heads into the 2023 NFL season with high expectations. Last season, Mahomes tallied an impressive 5,250 passing yards. The Over/Under for his passing yards this year is set at a robust 4800.5, hinting at another blockbuster year. This prop is the highest in the league for the upcoming season, surpassing even Justin Herbert's line by a full 350 yards. In his career, Mahomes has averaged 4,791 passing yards per season, and if we prorate his per game stats, we would expect Mahomes to amass 5,155 yards over the course of a 17-game season should he stay healthy.
The over/under for Mahomes' passing TDs is set at 36.5, indicating anticipation for a high-scoring season from the star QB. Given that Mahomes led the league in passing yards and touchdowns last year in route to a second Super Bowl championship, these numbers seem attainable if he maintains his stellar performance. Mahomes has averaged 38.4 Passing TDs per season in his five years as the Chiefs starter.
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Over/Under 775.5 Rushing Yards
Pacheco, who entered the 2022 season as a 7th-round draft pick fighting for a roster spot, concluded the season remarkably as the Chiefs' starting running back in the Super Bowl. He finished the season impressively, recording 830 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns for the Chiefs.
As a rookie, Pacheco led the Chiefs' running backs in attempts, yards, and touchdowns. However, Pacheco only played more than half of the snaps three times, including the playoffs, suggesting that he may be sharing the workload with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon. This season, Pacheco will look to establish himself as a primary option in the Chiefs' backfield.
Travis Kelce (TE)
Over/Under 1125.5 Receiving Yards
Kansas City Chiefs' stalwart tight end, Travis Kelce, enters the new season with his over/under receiving yards set at an ambitious 1125.5. Despite the challenging target, Kelce's track record paints an encouraging picture. He raked in an astounding 1,339 yards just last season and has maintained a robust average of 1290 receiving yards in his five seasons catching passes from Mahomes.
Under the leadership of Patrick Mahomes, the two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback, Kelce's performance has seen a remarkable uplift. Every season with Mahomes at the helm has seen Kelce producing WR1 level numbers, with his lowest yardage under Mahomes matching his best performance prior to Mahomes' arrival.
Four-time All-Pro player, Travis Kelce, has consistently lived up to his projected market performance in recent years. However, as his 34th birthday approaches this season, some are wondering if age may start to impact his exceptional levels of production. As we step into the new season, it will be fascinating to see if Kelce uses this doubt as a motivating factor to maintain his on-field dominance, similar to the previous year when he felt the Chiefs were underestimated. Maybe to provide an extra ounce of motivation, Mahomes or another Chiefs player should get in his ear and alert Kelce to the fact that Vegas expects his yardage to drop by over 200 yards from a season ago. Nonetheless, even with this projected drop, Kelce’s receiving Over/Under is still over 400 yards more than other elite tight ends, including George Kittle (O/U 725.5 Receiving Yards) and Darnell Waller (O/U 700.5 Receiving Yards).
Offseason Chess Moves
The Kansas City Chiefs' offseason has been a masterclass in strategic maneuvering, with well-thought-out decisions, audacious draft choices, and calculated player acquisitions and releases setting the tone for the upcoming season.
One of the significant departures from the team was Left Tackle, Orlando Brown, who signed a lucrative deal with the Cincinnati Bengals. In response, the Chiefs brought in Jawaan Taylor. Despite Brown's consistent performance, Taylor's emergence as one of the league's premier pass protectors on the right side, makes him a fitting replacement. Last year, the Chiefs returned all five starting offensive linemen from their previous campaign in 2021 – and the team seemed to benefit from that cohesion. It remains to be seen if Brown’s departure will affect Kansas City’s stout protection during the course of the season.
The decision to release Frank Clark came as a significant move, considering his below-par grading over four seasons in Kansas City per numbers from Pro Football Focus. Clark's performance had been steadily declining, and his cap number for 2023 was pegged at an overwhelming $28.6 million, making his release an economically sound decision. The Chiefs have since looked to the draft to boost their pass rush, a strategy that may prove beneficial in the long run.
The addition of replacement defensive-end Charles Omenihu from San Francisco, despite pending misdemeanor charges, represents a bold move given his rating as the top edge rusher in this year's free agency class. Alongside the signing of Dru Tranquill, Donovan Smith, and Jerick McKinnon, these acquisitions are poised to strengthen the Chiefs' lineup substantially.
On the draft front, Kansas City made intriguing choices. They selected edge defender Felix Anudike-Uzomah in the first round, a decision bound to garner much attention. Further down the line, they added BJ Thompson, another promising pass-rushing prospect, despite his need for substantial bulk addition. However, his record of 31 total pressures and a 92.7 pass-rush grade at Stephen F. Austin signifies his potential.
Perhaps the most noteworthy draft selection was wide receiver Rashee Rice in the second round. Given the free agency departures of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, the Chiefs required a strong addition to their receiving corps. Rice, known for his speed, agility, and competitive nature, is well-suited to fill this gap.
Within these adjustments, a circulating rumor suggests the Chiefs might be considering the signing of DeAndre Hopkins. However, to accommodate Hopkins, the Chiefs would need to generate some cap space, potentially by renegotiating Chris Jones' contract. If this transaction is realized, it would introduce an additional aspect to the Chiefs' offensive game plan.
Overall, the Chiefs have maneuvered their way through this offseason with strategy and foresight, managing their roster and salary cap effectively while keeping their Super Bowl ambitions alive. The pivotal actions were executed with a keen understanding of the team's pros and cons, showcasing their preparedness to make the necessary sacrifices and acquisitions to sustain their Super Bowl aspirations. As the 2023 season nears, it will be captivating to observe how these offseason strategic adjustments translate into on-field performance.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Rating Perspective
The Kansas City Chiefs in the 2022 season demonstrated remarkable prowess and strategic superiority on the field, reflected accurately by a series of advanced metrics and power ratings.
In terms of Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a metric that measures a team's efficiency by comparing its performance to a league average, the Chiefs ranked 3rd across both the regular season and postseason. Unsurprisingly, they secured the top spot during the playoffs. Further breakdown reveals that they claimed the #1 spot for Offense and #15 for Defense throughout the 2022 NFL season, according to Football Outsider's DVOA metric.
In contrast, the NFL Elo (NFELO), a set of rankings that employs robust EPA-based algorithms, positioned the Chiefs as the 4th best team in their power ratings. According to this metric, the Chiefs were gauged to be +6.0 points superior to an average team.
Another widely-respected analytics expert, Kevin Cole, remained consistent in his praise for the Chiefs throughout the playoffs. In his final Power Ratings, the Chiefs were positioned at #1, with a value of +6.2 points better than an average team. This is notably higher than the #2 on the list, the Eagles, who stood at +4.8 points. A more detailed analysis by Cole echoes Football Outsider's DVOA assessment of the Chiefs' strengths. Cole's metrics assign the Chiefs +6.24 points of value on offense (best in the NFL) and -0.04 points of value on defense (ranked 16th, middle of the pack).
Turning to Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades, which appraise individual player performances on each play, the Chiefs were ranked 2nd overall (trailing only the Philadelphia Eagles). On offense, the Chiefs secured the highest rank, while defensively, they secured the 5th spot, according to PFF grades.
In summary, the key numbers project the Kansas City Chiefs as a dominant force in the NFL, proficient on both offense and defense. While there are slight disparities across these rankings, they depict the multifaceted nature of football analytics but affirm the Chiefs' status as a powerhouse in the league as they gear up for the 2023 season.
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From Our Podcast: Check out our Pro's recommended bet for the 2023 Chiefs' season on "RJ Bell's Dream Preview" here.
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