Setting the Stage
In the heart of New York, where Broadway lights once reflected off the jubilant smile of Joe Namath, the city is buzzing with a revived Jets' fervor. The echoes of Broadway Joe's bold Super Bowl III victory prediction against the Colts and Johnny Unitas, and the subsequent improbable triumph, reverberate through the streets. This history is stitched into the franchise's fabric, encapsulating the moment when the underdog Jets ascended beyond all expectations.
As the 2023 season commences, this storied fabric welcomes a potential new legend - Aaron Rodgers. Arguably the most talented quarterback to wear Jets' colors, potentially even outshining Namath himself in NFL lore, Rodgers has sparked renewed excitement in the Big Apple. Liberated from the sludge of mediocrity, the Jets stand at the dawn of a fresh era, drawing national attention as they feature on HBO's Hard Knocks.
In 2022, the Jets traversed a variable landscape, displaying moments of brilliance yet grappling with inconsistency, particularly on offense. Finishing in a confusing position, they displayed talent across the board, but poor quarterback play thwarted their advantages. The specter of past failures hung heavily, underscored by the contrast of former NY Jets QB Sam Darnold winning 4 of his last 6 games in Carolina while the Jets themselves dropped their last 6 ballgames, failing to score a touchdown in their final three.
The primary offseason question mark was straightforward: How do the Jets resolve their quarterback issue? The answer came swiftly with Aaron Rodgers, a back-to-back MVP just two seasons ago, setting his sights on Broadway. Rodgers' move to New York has sent shockwaves through the NFL. Joining forces with a familiar face, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Rodgers is expected to boost the Jets' offensive performance. Questions abound: Can Rodgers still play at an MVP level? Will he gel with his new teammates? Can he navigate the unique challenges of playing in New York? The unfolding season holds the keys to these queries.
The Jets' selection for Hard Knocks brings additional intrigue. Historically, Hard Knocks teams have had mixed fortunes, with recent trends indicating a tendency to outperform their win totals, but also a less-than-impressive record in the playoffs. The Jets themselves have been part of this narrative; their 2010 appearance on Hard Knocks resulted in an 11-win season and an AFC Championship game loss – by far the most successful campaign for any Hard Knocks team to date. Vegas projects the Jets to win between 9.5 and 10 games this season, a substantial rise in market expectations from previous seasons, reflecting the hopes pinned on Rodgers and the bolstered roster.
Robert Saleh and his staff are under pressure not to join the ranks of Hard Knocks teams that have dramatically underperformed. With a win total projection that puts the Jets in a competitive position, anything less than 10 wins could spell trouble for Saleh and his coaching future in New York. The historical performance of Hard Knocks teams is a fascinating subplot, a potential cautionary tale that bettors and fans should heed.
The 2023 season is a watershed moment for the Jets. The pieces are in place, the stage is set, and the spotlight is on. The success or failure of this season could either propel the Jets into a new era of relevance and contention or cast them back into the abyss of disappointment and unfulfilled potential.
With Aaron Rodgers under center, a vibrant coaching staff, and a nation watching through the lens of Hard Knocks, the Jets embark on a path that could lead to glory or despair. In a city that thrives on drama and demands success, the 2023 New York Jets stand at the crossroads, and the world is watching, waiting to see if they will rise or fall. Either way, the coming season promises to be one of the most compelling chapters in the storied history of this iconic franchise.
Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the NY Jets 2023 Win Total of Over/Under 9.5.
The Betting Landscape
The 2023 betting landscape for the New York Jets swiftly transformed in the early stages of the offseason, primarily driven by the evolving narrative around Aaron Rodgers' potential move to New York.
Initially, the Jets began with moderate Super Bowl odds of 30-to-1 in February, according to Pregame.com's consensus of seven sportsbooks. This suggested an outlook of the Jets as a middle-tier team. However, by mid-March, reports of Rodgers' likely shift to the Jets dramatically impacted the market, which had swiftly adjusted to this game-changing possibility. Before Rodgers even confirmed his intentions on the Pat McAfee show on March 15th, the market had reacted, revising the Jets' Super Bowl odds to an impressive 13-to-1. This significant upgrade catapulted the Jets into the league of top 10 Super Bowl favorites, highlighting the market's high expectations for the team following the addition of Rodgers.
Top 10 Super Bowl Favorites (Pregame.com Consensus Odds as of August 6th, 2023)
KC Chiefs +600
PHI Eagles +700
BUF Bills +900
SF 49ers +900
CIN Bengals +950
DAL Cowboys 13-to-1
NY Jets 15-to-1
BAL Ravens 20-to-1
MIA Dolphins 23-to-1
LA Chargers 23-to-1
Similarly, the Jets' prospects in the AFC East have also seen a considerable shift. Initially, the Jets' divisional odds were placed at +400. But with the addition of Rodgers, their odds are now at an impressive +250, putting them in a competitive position to claim their first AFC East title since the 2002 season.
AFC East Odds (consensus odds as of August 6th)
BUF Bills: +125 (~41%)
NY Jets: +250 (~26%)
MIA Dolphins: +300 (~23%)
NE Patriots: +800 (~10%).
These odds illustrate a division race that's highly contested, with the Jets nipping at the heels of the favored Bills, and ahead of both the Dolphins and Patriots. Our trusty Future Odds calculator tells us the Jets have implied Vegas odds of around 26% to win the East.
On the NFL Win Totals front, the Jets have been projected to exceed their win totals from the past few seasons. The over/under currently sits at 9.5 games, with more weight leaning towards Over (-120), suggesting a higher probability of the Jets achieving a winning record. This projected performance, if realized, would be a significant improvement from previous seasons and underscore the impact of their major offseason moves. The Jets last won double-digit games in the 2015 season (going 10-6) and have done so only five times this century.
NY Jets Win Total
Over 9.5 (-120)
Under 9.5 (+100)
In terms of the playoffs, the Jets currently stand at -130 to make the postseason, implying a 54% chance of returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. In contrast, the Jets are at +110 (or a 46% chance) to miss the playoffs. The Jets last made the playoffs in 2010 when they lost to eventual SB Champion Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2010 AFC Championship game.
Will NY Jets Make the 2023-2024 NFL Playoffs?
Yes: -130 (~54%)
No: +110 (~46%)
The Jets are entering the 2023 season with high expectations, primarily driven by the addition of Aaron Rodgers. The market clearly acknowledges this shift, setting the stage for a potentially thrilling season in the Big Apple. In this high-stakes betting landscape, the Jets are not merely participants, but potential contenders. It will be fascinating to see if the odds turn in their favor as the season progresses.
Week 1 Showdown
The spotlight is set for a riveting Week 1 matchup as the New York Jets welcome their AFC East rivals, the Buffalo Bills, to MetLife Stadium on Monday Night Football. The game, unfolding on the poignant 22nd anniversary of 9/11, will kick off at 8:15 p.m. and be broadcast live on ESPN/ABC to a nation eager for some hard-fought football.
The stage for this contest is further heightened by the duel between seasoned quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen. Rodgers, now donning Jets' green and white after a headline-grabbing trade from the Packers, will square off against Allen for the third time in their careers. Historically, Rodgers has posted superior numbers, but will he continue that trend against a Bills defense that finished second in scoring last season, allowing just 17.9 points per game?
Initial odds that came out for this matchup showed a significant difference of opinion among sportsbooks. DraftKings in New Jersey began with the Bills as -3 (-105) favorites, while Westgate in Nevada posted a Pick'em, with -110 on either side. Now, the Jets stand at +1.5 (hosting) against the Bills with an Over/Under of 46.5. Savvy bettors are reminded of the importance of finding the right outlet to wager, with a wide 3-point swing potentially dictating the success of their bet.
But beyond the numbers, this clash is about redefining power in the AFC East. Last season, the teams split their series, both holding fort at home. The Jets' defense, the third-ranked pass defense last year (189.4 yards/game), sacked Allen 8 times and held him to a mere 56% connection rate. Allen responded by finding success on the ground, with 133 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns against the Jets over the course of the two matchups.
This Week 1 contest also has the flair of history and tradition. Nearly 53 years ago, the Jets faced the Browns in the debut of Monday Night Football, featuring Broadway Joe Namath. Now, the future Hall of Famer Rodgers will aim at a Bills defense, as the Jets get another chance under the MNF spotlight.
The Bills, who went an undefeated 5-0 in primetime games last season, will undoubtedly provide a stern test for Rodgers and the new-look Jets. The game will serve as a significant barometer for both teams, possibly foreshadowing the dynamics of the AFC East.
Jets' Head Coach Robert Saleh, entering his third season, will guide his team for the first time on Monday night, following in the steps of the Jets' opening season at home on Monday Night Football back in 2010, the last season the team was featured on Hard Knocks. The weight of history, the thrilling quarterback duel, the tight spread in the sportsbooks, and the primetime slot all combine to make this not just a game but an opportunity for each team to make a statement. With a home-field advantage and a defensive line that troubled Allen last season, this Week 1 showdown is not merely about winning a football game: it's about setting the tone for the entire 2023 season.
Player Spotlights
Aaron Rodgers (QB)
Over/Under 3950.5 Passing Yards
16-to-1 to win NFL MVP 7th favorite
The Packers have moved on, but Aaron Rodgers finds a new opportunity with the NY Jets, an opportunity filled with potential and ambition. Coming off a season that saw him throw double-digit interceptions (12) for the first time since 2010, Rodgers is hungry to reestablish himself among the elite QBs in the league. Rodgers finished 26th in ESPN’s Total QBR in 2022, his lowest ranking in this metric since becoming a starter in the 2008 season. The last time Rodgers finished outside of the top 15 QBR (in 2019) he responded by ranking 1st in that category each of the next two years, picking up NFL MVPs in both 2020 & 2021.
Reunited with former Green Bay coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and coupled with the Jets' talented receiving corps, Rodgers' prospects for 2023 look bright. The over/under at 3950.5 passing yards seems attainable, given his track record and desire to prove he's still among the league's best.
Breece Hall (RB)
[No Rushing Over/Under Listed]
With no definitive numbers listed, the expectations for Breece Hall's performance this season seem to be a mystery, especially considering the uncertainty around the potential signing of Dalvin Cook. However, the Jets' record with Hall on the field last year, 5-2 SU, speaks to his influence. When he was out, they slumped to 2-8 SU. Hall's presence in the backfield can't be underestimated, and if he's given the opportunity to lead the running game, he could significantly contribute to the Jets' success.
Garrett Wilson (WR)
Over/Under 1150.5 Receiving Yards
Garrett Wilson is set to soar in the 2023 season, and the market seems to agree, placing him with the 6th highest receiving yardage prop in the NFL. Despite having inconsistent quarterback play during his rookie year, Wilson ended with 83 catches and 1,103 yards. With Rodgers now at the helm, Wilson's expectations have skyrocketed. This young star receiver could easily exceed the 1150.5 receiving yards mark, especially as he comes off OROY honors in 2022.
The Jets are entering a new era with Aaron Rodgers, and the optimism around the team is palpable. With a QB of Rodgers' caliber and a receiving corps that includes standout young talent like Garrett Wilson, the Jets are poised to make a statement this season. The spotlight will be on these key players, and their performances could determine the success or failure of the team's playoff ambitions. The Jets' ability to mesh their established defensive prowess with a rejuvenated offense under Rodgers will be a crucial narrative to watch as the season unfolds. As always, the key for sports bettors will be to closely monitor these players' performances and strategically align their betting decisions.
Offseason Chess Moves
The New York Jets have been engaged in a strategic dance of offseason moves, the likes of which will significantly impact their future prospects. At the forefront of this is the earth-shattering arrival of Aaron Rodgers, the NFL's titan of a quarterback, making a surprising leap from the Green Bay Packers to the Big Apple.
This seismic shift began with the Jets securing Nathaniel Hackett as the new offensive coordinator, a favorite of Rodgers from their shared time in Green Bay. This appointment set the stage for the Rodgers' journey to the Jets, a move that promises to revolutionize the team's offensive capabilities.
Rodgers' arrival wasn't the only clever maneuver pulled off by the Jets this offseason. They further strengthened their offensive roster by bringing on former Packer teammates Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, both experienced receivers with a familiarity with Rodgers and Hackett's play style. Lazard and Cobb bring with them not just their on-field skills, but also their understanding of Rodgers' expectations, effectively acting as translators in the locker room, ensuring seamless communication and chemistry within the team.
In addition to familiar faces, the Jets acquired Mecole Hardman, a two-time Super Bowl champion with a reputation for his blazing speed. Together, these players will supplement the existing talent of Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson, and promising running back Breece Hall, creating an offense that promises to be both dynamic and potent.
However, protecting the new quarterback is equally important. The Jets recognized this and promptly signed former Packer OT, Billy Turner, to reinforce their offensive line. They also drafted top center prospect Joe Tippmann, making it clear that Rodgers' safety in the pocket is a priority. They further bolstered this line by bringing in Wes Schweitzer, a seasoned veteran, who provides vital insurance against potential injuries.
The strategic restructuring of Rodgers' contract, saving the Jets a staggering $35 million against the cap, will prove to be a valuable move that not only secured the future Hall-of-Famer's services but also granted the front office the flexibility to make additional improvements. This newfound cap space could potentially open the door for more high-profile acquisitions, such as Dalvin Cook.
The Jets' offseason chess game has been recognized and lauded by NFL analysts. Their meticulous planning and execution of key moves, coupled with the promise of a potent offense under Rodgers' command, put the Jets squarely at the top of the list of teams that have most improved their quarterback situation during the offseason.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
As the NY Jets leap into the new season, the echoes of their 2022 performance still resonate within advanced metrics and power ratings. The Jets' 2022 season, a carousel of quarterbacks, with Zach Wilson commanding the helm for nine games, followed by Zach White for four and even a vintage Joe Flacco flashback for another quartet, frames an intriguing backdrop. The spotlight now shines brightly on Aaron Rodgers, the new conductor of the Jets' offense. The burning question on every fan's mind and the heart of their analytical dissection is: just how much of a surge in their power ratings can the Jets anticipate with the seasoned prowess of Rodgers taking over from last season's patchwork of signal-callers?
When examining the Jets' Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a benchmark performance metric, the Jets were placed 16th, showcasing their mid-tier efficiency compared to the league's average. While the offensive DVOA languished at the 26th position, the team's defensive acumen shone through as they were ranked 6th, manifesting their defensive might. Their downward trajectory in the latter part of the season is reflected in the Weighted DVOA, ranking them at 23rd due to the weightage being biased towards their final six games, all of which they lost after a promising 7-4 start.
The NFL Elo (NFELO), a metric that leverages EPA-based algorithms for ranking, had the Jets placed 21st in the power ratings, scoring -2.2 points versus an average team, putting them smack in the middle of the pack.
Respected analyst Kevin Cole positioned the Jets as the 21st best overall, with -0.85 points better than an average team. Here, the discrepancy between the offense and defense was quite apparent. Cole ranked their offense a lowly 24th, contributing -2.28 points of value. In contrast, the Jets' defense ranked 4th, adding a commendable +1.44 points of value. This disparity in contributions again emphasizes their stronger defensive capabilities compared to their offensive counterpart.
As the curtain raises on the 2023 season, the NY Jets, buoyed by the transformative energy of Aaron Rodgers, are poised to script a compelling saga of resurgence and redemption. An exquisite balance between their formidable defensive prowess and an anticipated offensive leap sets the stage for a thrilling performance on the field. A tapestry of power ratings paints a vivid portrait of potential, with all eyes riveted on the elevation of the Jets' stature within the league's hierarchy. Can they channel the spirit of Super Bowl III, recapture that elusive glory, and once more step into the limelight as the underdogs who dared to dream? Only time – and some ‘Hard Knocks’ – will tell.
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