Setting the Stage: From Rebuilding to Revival – Pittsburgh Eyes the Prize
In a league where change is the only constant, the Pittsburgh Steelers continue to defy the odds by staying competitive. Under the steady hand of head coach Mike Tomlin, they pulled off a late-season resurgence last year, winning seven of their final nine matchups to finish with a 9-8 record and extend Tomlin's remarkable streak of not having a losing season after 16 years as a head coach in the NFL. With the daunting task of transitioning from the Ben Roethlisberger era, Tomlin's ability to sustain the Steelers' competitive edge is nothing short of commendable.
The 2023 season places a heavy burden on Kenny Pickett, the promising young quarterback who aims to steer the Steelers back into championship contention. Pickett had a rocky but at times promising rookie year, accumulating 2,404 passing yards at a 63% completion rate. However, he showed his mettle with a 7-2 post-bye week record, including decisive game-winning drives against playoff contenders like the Raiders and Ravens. Building on this momentum, Pickett recently achieved a perfect passer rating in the preseason, a feat that no Steeler has matched in a quarter-century, setting the stage for a potential breakthrough year.
The Steelers have made calculated moves to strengthen both their offensive and defensive lines, a strategic effort to support rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. On the skill side, the return of wide receiver Diontae Johnson promises continuity. But it's the offensive line that demands attention. Last year, the Steelers overhauled their O-line, adding Nate Herbig, Isaac Seumalo, Broderick Jones, and Le'Raven Clark to a core featuring Mason Cole and James Daniels. This overhaul marked the beginning of a transformative journey initiated by offensive line coach Pat Meyer, who was brought in at the start of the 2022 season to revamp the unit. Now in his second year, Meyer seems to have finally acquired the pieces he needs to implement his vision for the offensive line, shifting from a power, man-blocking scheme to a more fluid zone-blocking strategy, thereby enhancing the running game.
Despite a second-half upswing last season, the line's overall performance had its drawbacks. Pro Football Focus ranked Daniels and Cole 70th and 71st, respectively, among 146 linemen who played at least 50% of their team's snaps. Their grades were particularly jarring, considering both rank in the top 10 for highest paid at their positions, according to contract numbers from Spotrac.
Despite these concerning numbers, the Steelers recently traded away two of their offensive linemen for draft selections, signaling a growing faith in the unit's potential for this upcoming season. As Mason Cole put it, "There’s always hunger. There’s always going to be a hunger, especially in our room." This sentiment reflects the collective ambition to build on last year's partial success and to fill the void left by missing the playoffs, a testament to the confidence instilled by Meyer's leadership and the cohesive growth witnessed over the past year.
Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 season.
On the defensive front, Pro Bowlers like T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Cameron Heyward will continue to be the bedrock, fortified by rising talents like DeMarvin Leal and Mark Robinson who made their marks in crucial games last season.
However, the road to the playoffs is fraught with challenges. Defensive coordinators are already studying tapes to find vulnerabilities in Pickett's armor. Early-season showdowns against formidable opponents like the 49ers and Browns will be revealing indicators of Pittsburgh's readiness for the new era.
As the Steelers embark on their 2023 campaign, they combine youthful enthusiasm with tested leadership, directed by the always-steady Mike Tomlin. This season offers them the chance to not only uphold their legacy but also to carve out a new chapter, solidifying their reputation as one of the NFL's enduring powerhouses. A revitalized offensive line, an impervious defense, and a quarterback on the cusp of stardom set the scene for what could be a compelling season for Pittsburgh. The anticipation builds as the Steelers aim to make a definitive statement that they are still a force to be reckoned with, and a return to the NFL's upper echelon is well within their grasp.
The Betting Landscape
The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the 2023 season as a team inspiring caution rather than overwhelming optimism among bettors. While Mike Tomlin's consistent leadership gives Pittsburgh a floor, the ceiling remains a topic of debate. Here's how the futures market has evaluated the Steelers' prospects.
At the beginning of the offseason in February, the Steelers had 55/1 odds to win the Super Bowl according to Pregame.com's consensus odds. Those odds have held remarkably steady, currently standing at 56/1 as we enter Week 1 of the season. The market hasn't offered much in the way of an upgrade or downgrade, suggesting a wait-and-see approach regarding the team's new starting quarterback, Kenny Pickett, and their defensive capabilities.
In contrast, there has been movement in the Steelers' projected win total. Initially opening at 8.5 wins in March, the line has been bet up to a consensus Over/Under of 9 wins. This subtle uptick aligns with bettors' confidence in Tomlin to continue his streak of avoiding losing seasons, now aiming for the 17th consecutive year.
PIT Steelers Win Total (consensus odds as of September 3rd):
Over 9 (-110)
Under 9 (-110)
Interestingly, there's a disparity among bookmakers in the final days before the start of the regular season. DraftKings Sportsbook offers the Steelers at Over 8.5 (-145)/Under 8.5 (+125), while Westgate Nevada offers them at Over 9(-120)/Under 9 (+100, aka Even Money).
When looking at the AFC North landscape, the Steelers sit at the bottom of the list with +475 odds.
AFC North Division Odds (consensus odds as of September 3rd):
CIN Bengals: +150
BAL Ravens: +220
CLE Browns: +330
PIT Steelers: +475
Despite their status as the least favored, Pittsburgh's divisional odds do reflect the team's potential to be a dark horse, particularly if their defense performs well and Pickett proves effective in his starting role. The Steelers last won the division in the COVID season of 2020 when they started out a franchise-best 11-0. It was the Steelers' 8th division title over Big Ben's 17 years as the Steelers' starting quarterback, while Pickett hopes to claim his first AFC North crown in this upcoming 2023 season.
Will the Steelers Make the Playoffs? (Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook as of September 3rd)
Yes: +125 (~42% implied odds)
No: -150 (~58% implied odds)
Although during Mike Tomlin's 16-year tenure as the head coach of the Steelers the team has never experienced a losing season, it is worth noting that the team has failed to qualify for the playoffs on six occasions during this stretch. Notably, in four of the first five instances where they missed the playoffs, they were the team immediately outside of qualification, ranking seventh in the AFC back during the days of a six-team per conference playoff format. Last season, which was the second year under the expanded playoff format that includes seven teams from each conference, Tomlin's Steelers still finished as the odd man out. Pittsburgh won nine of its 17 games but still missed out on a playoff spot after finishing as the eighth-ranked team in the AFC standings.
The betting market for the Steelers is one of cautious optimism balanced by tangible reservations. While bettors are inclined to trust Tomlin's coaching pedigree to keep the team in contention, there's less consensus on the team's overall quality, particularly on offense. The divisional and Super Bowl odds point to a team seen as competent but not dominant, a narrative that could change depending on Pickett's performance and the defense's ability to sustain its excellence displayed in the second half of last season. As things stand, the Steelers' 2023 betting landscape offers a glimpse into a future that could go either way: a leap forward or another step back.
Week 1 Showdown
The Pittsburgh Steelers are gearing up to host the San Francisco 49ers at the iconic Heinz Field, marking the commencement of their 2023 NFL season. This Sunday, September 10th, the Steelers are presented with an opportunity to set a positive tone for the season, with the spotlight firmly on their new starting quarterback, Kenny Pickett.
The Week 1 betting market has seen a significant shift since the opening odds were released. Initially, the Steelers were listed as three-point underdogs, but the current line has them at +2.5. This alteration, especially off the key number of the NFL-three, indicates a growing confidence among bettors in their ability to cover the spread. The Total for the game has settled at Over/Under 41, a subtle drop from its opening line of 41.5, signaling expectations for a defensive battle.
Nick Bosa's potential absence adds an extra layer of complexity to the matchup. The 49ers' star defensive end was worth a massive 1.6 points to the expected outcome, according to NFL analytic expert Kevin Cole's Plus/Minus metric. Ironically, Bosa, who won the DPOY award, was the second most valuable defensive player last season according to this metric, behind only Chiefs Defensive-Tackle Chris Jones, who Cole had as worth 1.8 points to the line. Just like with Jones for the Chiefs, Bosa's potential absence could significantly impact the dynamics of the 49ers defense, which was dominant with Bosa in the lineup a season ago. While the 49ers have expressed optimism up until the latest report, the possibility of Bosa being sidelined may tilt the scales in favor of the Steelers.
On the Steelers' end, they will look to leverage their historical success under coach Mike Tomlin when listed as underdogs, particularly at Heinz Field. During Tomlin's tenure, the team has gone 11-9 SU and an impressive 12-4-4 ATS when considered home underdogs. These stats could be one reason we’re seeing some bettor affinity for Pittsburgh in the opening week.
At the helm for Pittsburgh is quarterback Kenny Pickett, who will be pitted against an uncertain QB situation on the 49ers' side, further fueling the intrigue surrounding this matchup.
Despite the line moving toward the Steelers, the 49ers maintain an implied win probability of 56%, highlighted by their status as -140 favorites. This leaves the takeback on the Steelers at +120, suggesting the 49ers are still favored but the gap is closing.
Both offenses will be under the microscope: the 49ers are historically slow starters under Shanahan, while Pittsburgh, which ranked 26th in scoring last season, has ample room for growth. These factors are contributing to the low total line, with both teams boasting strong defenses—even if the Steelers face a 49ers team without Nick Bosa.
As Week 1 rapidly approaches, the stage is set for an enthralling contest between the Steelers and the 49ers, where defenses are expected to shine and the betting action indicates a potentially closer game than initially anticipated.
Player Spotlights
Kenny Pickett (QB)
Over/Under 3300.5 Passing Yards
50-to-1 to win MVP (T-16th favorite)
Kenny Pickett, the Steelers' promising quarterback, is stepping into his second season with a lot to prove. Despite a less than stellar debut last season, losing 38-3 in a game that wasn't that close in Buffalo in Week 5, Pickett improved as the season progressed and there is an undercurrent of optimism surrounding him. Pickett has an upgraded supporting cast, with a bolstered offensive line and added depth at wide receiver. His rookie season displayed moments of highlight-reel brilliance, but also revealed room for improvement—his late-game and deep-pass performance as measured by metrics such as DVOA have been underwhelming. With questions about his clutch play and decision-making in critical zones, Pickett is an enigma. However, given the general trajectory for QBs to improve in their second year and the added pieces around him, he could defy odds and hit the Over for his 3300.5 Passing Yards, perhaps even entering the MVP conversation.
Najee Harris (RB)
Over/Under 900.5 Rushing Yards
Najee Harris has been a workhorse for the Steelers, exceeding 1,000 rushing yards in both of his first two seasons. Yet, Harris finds his spot challenged due to the rise of Jaylen Warren, who has caught the attention of many this preseason after being a late addition to the 2022 Steelers coming on as an undrafted free agent last August. Harris, who battled through a Lisfranc injury last year, will be keen to reassert his dominance in the running game and protect his status as the number one back. The betting market has set a cautious over/under of 900.5 rushing yards for Harris, reflecting the potential shift in workload dynamics with Warren. Harris' resilience and ability to play through injury will be vital assets as he seeks to prove his worth, especially as he moves towards potentially signing a more lucrative second contract.
George Pickens (WR)
Over/Under 750.5 Receiving Yards
George Pickens displayed promise in his rookie campaign, recording 801 receiving yards. His late-season performance showed consistency, with at least two catches in 7 of his final 9 games. Yet, the wide receiver situation in Pittsburgh is getting crowded, adding competition for targets. With Diontae Johnson still in the picture and the potential for Allen Robinson II to make an impact from the slot, Pickens' ability to hit the Over on his receiving yards will depend largely on how well Kenny Pickett can distribute the ball. Still, given his rising trajectory and knack for showing up in big moments, Pickens could exceed the Over/Under set at 750.5 yards.
TJ Watt (DE)
Over/Under 13.5 Sacks
+850 to win Defensive Player of the Year (3rd favorite)
TJ Watt, a linchpin in the Steelers' defense, enters the season with high expectations. After clinching the DPOY award two years ago, Watt is once again among the favorites to win, with odds of +850, placing him as the third favorite. Watt's disruptive presence on the defensive line will be a critical factor in the Steelers' success this season. His ability to dominate games and influence the outcome will be closely watched, as he seeks to reclaim the DPOY title and lead a formidable Steelers defense.
The Steelers' prospects this season hinge significantly on the performances of these key players. With Pickett aiming to defy his critics, Harris seeking to reestablish his dominance in the running game, Pickens poised for a breakout season, and Watt eager to reclaim his status as the league's top defender, the Steelers are gearing up for a potentially exciting season. Monitoring the performances of these players will be crucial for bettors looking to capitalize on the evolving dynamics of the Steelers' team.
Offseason Chess Moves
In a league where change is often the only constant, the Pittsburgh Steelers have opted for a different route, leaning heavily on continuity as their beacon of hope for the 2023 season. With the same core of coaching staff, including the seasoned Head Coach Mike Tomlin steering the ship for his 17th year, and the promising quarterback Kenny Pickett entering his second year, the Steelers are banking on stability and growth from within to fuel their journey back to the playoffs. This stability is further cemented with Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada entering his 3rd year, bringing a consistent philosophy and approach to the offensive strategies.
The Steelers have made a series of calculated moves in the offseason, aimed at bolstering their existing roster while addressing key areas of concern. The secondary, which saw the departure of Cameron Sutton, has been reinforced with the acquisition of Patrick Peterson, a veteran who showcased a resurgence last season, bringing in a wealth of experience and a knack for forcing incompletions. This move is expected to keep the secondary solid, maintaining a formidable line of defense against aerial assaults.
On the offensive front, the Steelers have not shied away from making bold moves. The trade of Chase Claypool saw the arrival of Allen Robinson II, a seasoned receiver looking to bounce back from a lackluster 2022 season. Robinson's addition is anticipated to add depth and experience to the receiving corps, providing Pickett with a reliable target as he seeks to elevate his game in his sophomore year.
The draft underscored the Steelers' determination to bolster their defense, drawing heavily from the powerhouse Big Ten conference and the reigning national champions, the Georgia Bulldogs. A standout move was the acquisition of Joey Porter Jr., a cornerback who has already demonstrated his prowess by allowing a mere 47.1% completion rate on passes thrown his way last season. Notably, he is the son of Steelers legend Joey Porter, a figure who graced 5 All-Pro teams and clinched a Super Bowl during his remarkable 8-year tenure in Pittsburgh. This addition not only strengthens the defensive line but also revives a legacy, promising a new era of defensive excellence. As Defensive Coordinator Teryl Austin steps into his second year with the team, he is poised to seamlessly integrate these promising new talents into the Steelers' defensive strategies, building upon the solid foundations established in his inaugural season.
Moreover, the drafting of Darnell Washington, a tight end with a potent mix of blocking prowess and receiving skills, promises to add a new dimension to the Steelers' offensive strategies. This strategic move aligns well with the vision of Offensive Line Coach Pat Meyer. Now in his second year with the team, Meyer is keen on nurturing the offensive line to new heights, transitioning from a power, man-blocking scheme to a more fluid zone-blocking strategy, a shift that Washington's skill set can significantly facilitate.
The Steelers have also focused on rejuvenating their offensive line, with the signing of guard Isaac Seumalo, a move that complements last year's acquisition of James Daniels. Under Meyer's guidance, these additions are set to solidify the interior offensive line, potentially paving the way for a more potent ground attack.
However, the road ahead is not without challenges. The linebacker unit has undergone a complete overhaul, introducing new faces and potential starters in Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts, both of whom will be under the spotlight as they seek to fill the void left by the departures. The center position remains a concern, with Mason Cole's below-average PFF pass-blocking grade highlighting the need for depth and improvement in this area.
Despite the hurdles, the Steelers, under the guidance of a stable coaching staff, are looking to blend the old with the new, fostering growth from within while integrating fresh talent into their ranks. The 2023 season presents an opportunity for the Steelers to prove that continuity, coupled with strategic enhancements, can indeed be a formula for success, potentially heralding a return to the playoffs and re-establishing themselves as a force to be reckoned with in the AFC North.
As the Steelers gear up for the new season, the focus will be on harmonizing the blend of experience and youth, optimizing the strengths of their seasoned coaching staff, and leveraging continuity in key positions to carve out a successful campaign. The Steelers faithful will be keenly watching, hoping that this strategy of stability and incremental improvement will be the catalyst for a triumphant return to the playoffs.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The Pittsburgh Steelers, a team with a storied history, exhibited a performance in the 2022 season that was a mixed bag according to various advanced metrics and power ratings. A closer inspection of these numbers reveals a divergence in the assessment of the team's offensive and defensive units, offering a nuanced view of their standing as they gear up for the 2023 season.
Delving into the Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a metric that evaluates a team's efficiency by comparing its performance to a league average based on the situation, the Steelers found themselves positioned at 14th overall. This ranking was a cumulative result of their 18th place in Offensive DVOA and a slightly better 12th place in Defensive DVOA, indicating a defense that managed to outperform the offense in terms of efficiency.
Contrastingly, the NFELO rankings, which employ rigorous EPA-based algorithms to gauge team standings, painted a more favorable picture of the Steelers. According to this metric, the team clinched the 9th spot, being +1.2 points better than an average NFL team by the end of the 2022 season. This ranking suggests a top-tier performance, hinting at underlying strengths that might not be fully captured by other metrics.
Kevin Cole's analysis, a respected voice in the analytics community, placed the Steelers as the 13th-best team overall, with a +0.59 point advantage over an average team. Interestingly, Cole's breakdown diverged from the DVOA's assessment, attributing more value to the Steelers' offense (+1.04 points, ranked 13th) compared to their defense which lost value (-0.45 points, ranked 23rd). This discrepancy with the DVOA rankings underscores the complexity and multifaceted nature of football analytics, where different metrics can sometimes offer contrasting narratives.
As we synthesize these advanced metrics, it becomes evident that the Steelers exhibited a performance characterized by contrasts in the 2022 season. The divergence in the assessment of their offensive and defensive units across different metrics hints at a team in the midst of transition, with areas of both strength and improvement. However, with the team's continuity in philosophy and coaching staff, coupled with the exciting potential of a major improvement from their second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, after his first full training camp as the unquestioned starter, there is a palpable sense of optimism in Pittsburgh. The "Numbers That Matter" from a power ratings perspective sketch a picture of the Steelers as a team with a balanced potential, ready to carve out a successful path in the 2023 season.
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AFC North
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