Setting the Stage
As the 2023 season dawns, the Cleveland Browns look to rewrite their narrative and step into the Super Bowl contenders' spotlight. The previous season was a building year marked by significant changes and challenges. The most notable being the integration of star quarterback Deshaun Watson into the team's structure amidst his personal turmoil.
After serving an 11-game suspension and struggling in his debut season in Cleveland, Watson ranked just 26th in the league in QBR (38.3) over the last six games of the season. The Browns, however, are betting on Watson's ability to rebound. With the shadow of a record $230 million fully guaranteed contract hanging over him, Watson, the 2020 NFL passing champ, still has the potential to return the Browns to the Super Bowl discussion should he be able to recover his form from years past.
In addition to changes in player personnel, the Browns have also made strategic moves in the coaching staff. Former Lions’ Head Coach, Jim Schwartz, now part of the team's arsenal as their new defensive coordinator, plans to turn around a defense that Football Outsiders ranked 23rd in the 2022 regular season. By ramping up the aggression on the defense and forcing negative plays, Schwartz's coaching could help Cleveland redefine its defensive prowess.
Moreover, the Browns moved on from longtime special teams coordinator Mike Priefer and replaced him with former Cleveland special teams standout, Bubba Ventrone. This shift in leadership is expected to revive the special teams and give the Browns an edge they haven't had in years.
Looking at the Browns' 2023 schedule, they have the 14th toughest schedule in the league looking at their opponents' aggregate Win Totals, with the first month being critical. Cleveland opens with four of its first five games at home, giving them an early advantage against some of the tougher teams on their schedule including the Bengals & 49ers.
It's also worth noting that Cleveland's offense is set to adapt to leverage Watson's running capabilities to a greater degree this season. With their elite offensive line, a top-tier running back in Nick Chubb, and Watson's natural ability to run the ball, the Browns have a powerful offensive trifecta. This, combined with Watson's potential return to top form, could make Cleveland a formidable force in 2023.
The key to the Browns' success this season will be how well these new elements can synergize. Watson's return to form, the revamped defense under Schwartz, the potential upgrade in special teams under Ventrone, and a favorable early-season schedule could align to provide a successful 2023 season.
In the grand scheme of things, the Browns are entering the 2023 season with a potent mix of potential and pragmatism. If the right pieces fall into place, the Browns may not just exceed expectations but set new standards for their performance. And for the sports betting community, it's a scenario rich with opportunities and intrigue. Only time will tell how this gamble plays out.
Pregame.com's Sleepy J and MacKenzie Rivers discuss a recommended bet on the Browns' 2023 Vegas Win Total.
The Betting Landscape
The 2023 betting landscape for the Cleveland Browns sees them positioned as underdogs within their own division, the AFC North, which also happens to be the toughest division in football, boasting an average team expected win total of 9.88 games. The Browns, coming in at 35 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl based on a consensus of seven sportsbooks from Pregame.com, are a team to watch despite the fierce competition. The odds have remained relatively stable throughout the offseason, reflecting a level of consistency in the market's assessment of the Browns' prospects.
To break down the competition within the AFC North, let's consider each team's odds to win the division. The Browns are currently placed at +400 to win the division, trailing behind the Bengals (+135) and the Ravens (+250), but still favored over the Steelers (+470). The Browns face a tough climb, but the competitive dynamics of the division can't be discounted.
AFC North Odds (consensus odds as of July 17th):
CIN Bengals: +135 (~39.2%)
BAL Ravens: +250 (~26.3%)
CLE Browns: +400 (~18.4%)
PIT Steelers: +470 (~16.1%)
To get a sense of the Browns' chances, we can use a Future odds calculator to reveal an implied probability of 18.4% to win the AFC North based on these consensus odds.
To further illustrate the level of competition within the division, the Browns' over/under win total has been set at 9.5 with considerable juice on the under, which translates to a market projection of just over nine wins. It's worth noting, however, that the Browns face six of the league's worst teams from last season, offering them an opportunity to exceed this projection. Here are the top 15 NFL win totals per consensus odds as of July 17th:
Top 15 NFL Win Totals (consensus odds as of July 17th)
KC Chiefs: O/U 11.5 Wins (Over -135)
PHI Eagles: O/U 11.5 Wins
CIN Bengals: O/U 11.5 Wins (Under -130)
SF 49ers: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -145)
BUF Bills: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -140)
BAL Ravens: O/U 10 (Over -120)
JAX Jaguars: O/U 10
DAL Cowboys: O/U 10
DET Lions: O/U 9.5 (Over -135)
NY Jets: O/U 9.5 (Over -130)
LA Chargers: O/U 9.5 (Over -125)
MIA Dolphins: O/U 9.5
NO Saints: O/U 9.5 (Under -145)
CLE Browns: O/U 9.5 (Under -140)
PIT Steelers: O/U 9
Sportsbooks have made the Browns slight underdogs to make the playoff with the “Yes” set at +120 and the “No” at -140, which implies about a 57% chance the Browns will miss the playoffs for the second year in a row and for the 22nd time already in the 21st century.
Will the Browns make the Playoffs?
Yes +120 (~43%)
No -140 (~57%)
The Browns are stepping into the 2023 season under an air of expectation, with the team hoping for a return to form for key player Deshaun Watson and reliant on the performances of Myles Garrett and Nick Chubb. The potential for a return to the postseason is tangible, especially if the Browns manage to split their divisional games as they did last season. However, they will need to be resilient to handle early-season challenges, starting with a home opener against divisional rival Cincinnati, followed by a Monday Night Football clash at Pittsburgh in Week 2.
In the high-stakes betting landscape, the Browns may not be leading the pack, but they are far from counted out. As they navigate a highly competitive environment in the 2023 season, their position as underdogs in the AFC North makes them an intriguing prospect for seasoned sports bettors. The Cleveland Browns' journey this season will undoubtedly be one to watch.
Week 1 Showdown
The 2023 NFL season is all set to commence with an intriguing showdown between the AFC North rivals, the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Cleveland Browns. The Browns will be hosting this potentially electrifying match on Sunday, September 10th.
The opening and current odds still hold the Bengals as favorites with a -2.5-point spread against the Browns. The Over/Under line for the game remains at 47, a testament to the evenly matched potential of both teams.
The Cincinnati Bengals, as the two-time reigning champions of the AFC North, are expected to continue their successful run. However, as the betting odds indicate, the opening game won't be a cakewalk for them.
Interestingly, Cincinnati's star quarterback, Joe Burrow, has had a challenging time against the Browns. With a 1-4 record in his career against Cleveland, Burrow's performance against the Browns has been surprisingly below his usual standards. Despite these statistics, CBS Sports predicts a 27-23 victory for the Bengals, indicating their belief that Burrow's struggle against the Browns is an anomaly rather than a trend.
Cleveland Browns, though not seen as strong contenders for the division title, are an improved team from last season. With Deshaun Watson expected to bolster the Browns in 2023, Cleveland could turn out to be a dark horse this season. A home game win against the Bengals in Week 1 could potentially set the stage for an intriguing season for the Browns, a scenario that fans would eagerly anticipate.
Delving into the betting trends, Cleveland Browns fans have plenty to feel optimistic about. Specifically, in the modern era (2012-present), Week 1 underdogs have a 55.2% ATS hit rate (90-73), Division Underdogs stands at a robust 68.5% ATS win percentage (37-17), and Home Division Underdogs take it up a notch with a staggering 88.2% ATS record (15-2). With the Browns fitting all three categories for their Week 1 match, this statistical trend may hint at a surprising outcome.
In the context of these numbers, the Browns may not only cover the +2.5-point spread but also could be a potential outright winner. This is a situation that Browns fans and bettors looking for value might find particularly enticing.
While the Bengals have been dubbed as 'legitimate contenders' by CBS Sports and come with the baggage of expectations, the Browns enter this season as an underdog, a position that might play to their strengths considering the aforementioned betting trends.
Thus, the Week 1 match between the Bengals and the Browns promises a mix of high-octane football, strategic gameplay, and an exciting betting landscape. Regardless of whether you are a fan or a bettor, this AFC North rivalry game is shaping up to be an ideal opener to the 2023 NFL season.
Player Spotlights
Deshaun Watson (QB)
30/1 MVP Odds
Over/Under 3650.5 Passing Yards
The Browns' franchise quarterback, Deshaun Watson, is an essential piece to the team's 2023 puzzle. Watson's 2022 performance was marred by a series of circumstances that held him below his usual high standards. Despite these obstacles, his talent is undeniable. With an average sack rate of 10.5% and five interceptions in just 170 attempts, the pressure is on for Watson to return to his 2020 form. He threw for a league-high of 8.9 yards per attempt in 2020 but had a career-worst of 6.5 last season. All told for his career, Watson ranks 4th all-time in Yards Per Attempt at 8.2. The Browns have equipped Watson with a robust offensive line and reliable receivers, setting the stage for a potential comeback. Watson's performance will be crucial to the Browns' success and is expected to surpass the Over/Under of 3650.5 passing yards.
Nick Chubb (RB)
O/U 1225.5 Yards
20/1 to win Offensive Player of the Year
Chubb, a crucial offensive component, has consistently produced strong rushing stats for the Browns. The talented running back has a stellar career average of 1268.2 rushing yards, exceeding his O/U number in three out of five seasons. As ESPN’s Adam Schefter recently noted, Chubb was the last running back to sign a contract worth $10M+ per year, which he did in 2021, demonstrating the Browns' faith in his potential to carry the team's running game. With an O/U set at 1225.5 yards, Chubb has a chance to outdo himself this season, adding another feather to his cap.
Amari Cooper (WR)
Over/Under 950.5 Receiving Yards
60/1 to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year
The Browns' wide receiver, Amari Cooper, carries high expectations for the upcoming season. Despite recovering from core muscle surgery, Cooper's track record hints at his ability to produce high yardage. With the highest cap number for any WR in the 2023 NFL season, at $23.8M, Cooper may well surpass the Over/Under of 950.5 receiving yards. His performance will be crucial in securing the Browns' aerial offense and complementing the ground game.
Myles Garrett (DE)
Over/Under 14.75 Sacks
+750 to win Defensive Player of the Year
Myles Garrett, a key component in the Browns' defense, has the second-highest Over/Under in the league at 14.75 sacks, only behind the 49ers’ Nick Bosa. Additionally, he is the second favorite behind Micah Parsons to win the Defensive Player of the Year, offering a tantalizing proposition for bettors. Garrett's performance will significantly determine the Browns' defensive efficacy in the 2023 season.
The success of the Browns this season depends largely on these key players. With a reinvigorated Watson set to control the offense, a determined Chubb ready to power the running game, a recovered Cooper looking to dominate the receiving game, and a motivated Garrett eager to fortify the defense, the Browns are prepared for a riveting season. As always, for savvy sports bettors, monitoring these players' performances will be vital in fine-tuning their betting strategies.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Browns' front office has been busy during the offseason, focusing on their primary goal of strengthening their defensive unit to improve their championship prospects.
To bolster their interior defensive line, the Browns brought in DT Dalvin Tomlinson from Minnesota. With a career-high 33 pressures in the previous season, Tomlinson's performance far exceeded that of Taven Bryan, his predecessor in Cleveland, whose win rate was just 6.7%. Tomlinson's win rate of 12.9% provides a significant boost to the team's interior defensive line.
Further, Cleveland's trade with Minnesota for edge defender Za'Darius Smith marked one of their best offseason moves. The exchange for two future late-round picks brought in Smith, who contributed an impressive 84 pressures for the Vikings in the past season. Za’Darius Smith had an elite 85.4 pass-rushing grade from Pro Football Focus, which ranked ninth best in the NFL last season. His addition is expected to significantly bolster the Browns' defensive capabilities.
In addition to strengthening their defense, the Browns made strides in improving their receiving corps. The team acquired Marquise Goodwin on a one-year deal, adding a seasoned receiver to their lineup. With 187 catches for 3,023 yards and 18 touchdowns from 362 career targets, Goodwin is expected to bring experience and productivity to the Browns' offensive unit.
The Browns also made a strategic move to acquire receiver Elijah Moore from the New York Jets. Moore, who last season played in 16 out of a possible 17 games, registered 65 targets with 37 catches for 446 yards and one touchdown. With Moore's addition, the Browns are expected to have a more potent and versatile receiving unit.
However, it wasn't only incoming players that defined the Browns' offseason. They had significant departures too, including edge Jadeveon Clowney and running back Kareem Hunt. Despite these losses, the Browns managed to mitigate their impact by making smart acquisitions and trades.
In terms of their draft class, the Browns had no picks until the third round due to their 2023 first- and second-round picks being part of the Deshaun Watson trade. Nevertheless, they managed to draft some promising talent, with defensive interior Siaki Ika being the standout. Ika's size and power, coupled with his consistent pass-rush grades, make him a player to watch in the upcoming season.
Despite these moves, cornerback depth remains a concern for the team. The Browns have a strong starting trio of cornerbacks in Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson, and Greg Newsome II. Still, the depth behind them is questionable, especially given the less-than-ideal performance from Mike Ford over the past few seasons.
Overall, the Browns have made some key moves in the 2023 offseason to address their most pressing issues. These moves, coupled with the return of their quarterback to top form, could see them making a run for the championship this coming season.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The Cleveland Browns' past season has been the subject of intense scrutiny and analysis, primarily due to the intriguing development at their quarterback position. The return of Deshaun Watson from suspension, taking over from Jacoby Brissett for the final six games, created a significant ripple of interest. However, Watson's performance during this period not only failed to live up to his own high standards set earlier in his career but also lagged behind the performance of Brissett, who had handled the reins for the first 11 games. This unexpected downturn in quarterback efficiency has become a significant point of analysis in evaluating the Browns' overall performance from last season and their prospective potential heading into 2023. Our analytical understanding of the Browns will require substantial adjustment if Watson manages to suddenly recapture the Pro Bowl-caliber performance he demonstrated earlier in his career.
Starting with the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a comprehensive metric developed by Football Outsiders that compares a team's performance to the league average, the Browns ranked 10th overall during the regular season and playoffs. This measure speaks volumes about the team's overall competence, but a deeper dive into the offensive and defensive statistics reveals a more nuanced story. The Browns secured the 7th spot in Offensive DVOA, suggesting a strong offensive unit – even given Watson’s late-season struggles. However, their Defensive DVOA ranked a paltry 22nd in the NFL and proved particularly vulnerable against the run, where the Browns ranked 28th by Football Outsider’s metrics.
Another crucial metric, the NFL Elo (NFELO), which employs an EPA-based algorithm for its rankings, placed the Browns as the 16th-best team in the league, making them exactly average. This placement might not seem too impressive at first glance, but it's worth noting that it's based on a holistic analysis of all aspects of their play.
Finally, Kevin Cole, an esteemed analyst known for his in-depth power ratings, placed the Browns as the 14th-best team, +0.51 points better than an average team. The offense, under Cole's calculations, added +0.74 points of value, securing them the 15th position, while the defense detracted -0.24 points, positioning them 20th. It's clear from these numbers that the offense has been more value-adding for the Browns than their defense.
So, what does this mean for the Browns with Deshaun Watson in the mix? Only time will tell if his arrival can galvanize the team's offensive performance and enhance their overall power ratings. But for now, these metrics provide a comprehensive view of the Browns' performance last season, setting the stage for an intriguing and exciting season ahead.
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From Our new "NFL Bet Tank" Podcast: Check out Pregame.com's Sleepy J and MacKenzie Rivers discuss a recommended bet for the 2023 Browns season on this clip from "NFL Bet Tank" podcast. Find all of Sleepy J's Pregame picks here.
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