Setting the Stage
As the rhythmic and vibrant sounds of jazz fill the New Orleans air, there's a palpable sense of anticipation that resonates within the legendary Caesars Superdome, the heart of Saints football since 1975. While the major renovations to the classic stadium aren't expected to be completed until 2024, Saints fans hope that with Derek Carr in tow, New Orleans' reclamation of their domination of the NFC South can happen much sooner.
Following a challenging season in 2022, the New Orleans Saints have made an aggressive comeback. The Saints have reclaimed their footing as favorites in the NFC South division by securing Derek Carr, ahead of divisional rivals like the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Falcons, all of whom began the offseason with question marks and uncertainty at the quarterback position. Carr, an ex-Raider, now leads the Saints offense, driven to prove his worth after an unanticipated benching and release from his former team.
Despite a rough exit from the Raiders, Carr's previous accomplishments, such as his contributions to the Raiders' records for completions, attempts, touchdown passes, and passing yards, are indisputable. He's now focused on leveraging these past achievements and using the sting from his release to fuel a stellar performance with the Saints.
In the 2022 season, the Saints faced significant challenges from both coaching and quarterback performance. Derek Carr's addition to the team is seen as a significant improvement over Andy Dalton, despite Dalton's higher PFF grading, higher completion percentage over expected, more big-time throws, fewer turnover-worthy plays, and more yards per attempt. The Saints hope Carr's arrival will invigorate the offense and allow players like Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson to excel and expand their potential.
Questions remain about Alvin Kamara's role due to his pending 4-6 game suspension and signs of decline on the field. The Saints addressed these concerns by adding Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller to split RB touches. Williams was known as the goal line vulture last year, scoring 17 TDs for the Lions.
In light of these developments, the Saints and their fans are approaching the upcoming season with cautious optimism. As they prepare to battle for the NFC South title, their roster – reinvigorated by Carr's addition, strategic reinforcements, and a promising group of players – presents exciting prospects for the season. The Saints, backed by their unwavering spirit and the steadfast support of New Orleans, are ready to make their mark on the upcoming season.
Pregame.com's Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers engage in a passionate 'crossfire' debate over the New Orleans win total.
The Betting Landscape
The New Orleans Saints enter the 2023 NFL season with a varied mix of anticipation and skepticism from the betting markets. Their Super Bowl odds place them in the middle of the pack, at 40-to-1, according to seven-sportsbook consensus from Pregame.com. Yet, it's worth noting they have by far the best odds of making a deep playoff run out of any team in their own division. The next closest, the Atlanta Falcons, are distant at 75-to-1 to win it all. Such a differential underlines the faith in the Saints' ability to outperform their divisional rivals, and also how little is expected from the NFC South.
The Saints' win total line opened at 9.5, an optimistic forecast for a team that experienced both highs and lows in recent seasons, winning only seven games last year. However, the betting public appears less optimistic about the Saints' prospects than the initial bookmakers number, with the Under being heavily backed, pushing their win total now closer to O/U 9, as indicated by the -145 vigorish on the Under.
Win Total Odds for Saints:
Over 9.5 Wins +125
Under 9.5 Wins -145
(Odds as of July 5th, based on a consensus from Pregame.com)
The NFC South Division odds further amplify the intrigue surrounding the Saints. They lead the oddsboard at +125, a clear indication of confidence in them claiming the division title. Trailing them are the Falcons at +240, the Panthers at +340, and the Buccaneers at an unlikely +750.
Using a Future Odds calculator, we can determine that the betting Vegas market gives the Saints around a 41% chance to take home their NFC South crown.
NFC South Division Odds:
New Orleans Saints: +125 (~41%)
Atlanta Falcons: +240 (~27%)
Carolina Panthers: +340 (~21%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +750 (11%)
(Odds as of July 5th, based on a consensus from Pregame.com)
Another metric to consider is the odds for the Saints to make the playoffs. The numbers at DraftKings Sportsbook currently lean favorably towards them booking a postseason trip, with "Yes" priced at -180, implying a roughly 62% chance, and "No" at +155, suggesting about a 38% chance.
The 2023 betting landscape for the New Orleans Saints displays a mix of hope and caution. The Saints are seen as favorites in their division, yet they face skepticism from Vegas sharps. As we head into training camp, these market indicators will undeniably fluctuate, with the Saints' on-field performance and the unfolding dynamics of the NFC South driving the changes.
Week 1 Showdown
As the summer heat starts to cool and the whispers of fall rustle through the air, the NFL gears up for yet another exciting season. The first match on the docket for the New Orleans Saints is a home game against the Tennessee Titans, a face-off that promises to be a thrilling kickoff to the 2023 campaign. The Superdome will undoubtedly buzz with anticipation as Who Dat Nation finally gets a first-hand look at their new quarterback, Derek Carr.
As of July 5th, the Saints hold the advantage, with bookmakers installing them as -3.5-point favorites over the Titans (O/U 41.5). This line, reflecting the Saints' status as hosts and potential strength with a refreshed roster, has been steady since first opening after the NFL schedule was released in May.
The Saints have had notoriously shaky starts in the early weeks of recent seasons. Since 2014, the Saints are only 5-13 SU & 3-15 ATS in Weeks 1 & 2 of the NFL season. One might attribute the pattern to be reflective of the particular head coach and quarterback dynamic of Sean Payton and Drew Brees. However, in the following two seasons since Brees retired, the Saints have gone only 1-3 ATS in Weeks 1 & 2. Moreover, after Payton moved on ahead of the 2022 season, the Saints again failed to cover either Week 1 or Week 2 last year. As we observe this betting trend, one must wonder what might be causing this consistent underperformance from this franchise to start each year. Moreover, it sparks intrigue on how savvy bettors might profit from this pattern.
Regardless of any speculation surrounding a potential shift from the Ryan Tannehill-era in Tennessee following the drafting of Will Levis, the Titans remain a formidable opponent. Their unwavering force, Derrick 'King' Henry, who has dominated the past decade, undeniably necessitates a robust defensive strategy from the Saints. It's worth mentioning that, according to Football Outsider's DVOA metrics, the Saints' defense against the rush ranked 17th in 2022. At first glance, this rank might seem ordinary, but considering the Saints' recent record with premier defensive-end Cameron Jordan leading the defense against opposing teams' rush attacks, it is quite noteworthy. It was the first time since 2017 that New Orleans fell out of the top 5 in DVOA's rush defense ranking. In fact, they had been the best against the run in 2021 before Dennis Allen took over from Sean Payton as head coach ahead of last season. As Allen had been New Orleans' defensive coordinator, his broader responsibilities as head coach may have affected his ability to focus on defense specifically, potentially explaining the Saints' defensive dropoff.
To add to the game's intrigue, the Titans' first-round pick, Guard Peter Skoronski, will face his first test in the NFL against Cam Jordan and the Saints' defensive line and. Meanwhile, on the Titans' side, they boast formidable defensive talents such as DT Jeffery Simmons, FS Kevin Byard, and former division rival CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (formerly of the Tampa Bay Bucs).
New Orleans will be eager to showcase their new and refreshed roster, featuring rookies like DT Bryan Bresee, DE Isiah Foskey, and potentially RB Kendre Miller, as well as new free agents like RB Jammal Williams, TE Foster Moreau, DT Khalen Saunders, and WR Bryan Edwards.
Yet the spotlight will inevitably shine brightest on Derek Carr. The highly anticipated first look at the new QB in a Saints jersey will draw keen attention from fans and analysts alike. The anticipation is palpable, and the hopes are high for a victorious debut.
Player Spotlights
Derek Carr (QB)
Over/Under 3800.5 Passing Yards
Comeback Player of the Year 35/1
The Saints have invested heavily in their new franchise quarterback, Derek Carr, bestowing upon him a mammoth 3-year $121.5M contract. Despite falling short of this number last season due to two missed starts, Carr had a 17-game pace of 3,990 yards last season. Carr's 2023 Over/Under has been set at a lofty 3800.5 yards, underscoring high expectations for him in the Big Easy.
Carr finds himself with interesting odds of 35/1 for Comeback Player of the Year, which points to the narrative that he could lead a resurgent campaign for the Saints. Despite the overwhelming favorite being Damar Hamlin at -500, the presence of Carr in this market indicates a belief in his potential to make a splash in his new home.
The former Raider has a golden opportunity to prove his doubters wrong, and perhaps win a figurative "clap back" player of the year award for stunting on his former team for benching him the previous season.
Alvin Kamara (RB)
[No Odds Listed]
The absence of betting odds for Alvin Kamara reflects the uncertainty surrounding his potential suspension for felony battery charges. His potential absence due to suspension could shake up the Saints' offensive rhythm, especially considering the crucial role he plays in the team's backfield.
The Saints have attempted to hedge their bets with the signing of Jamaal Williams in free agency and the drafting of Kendre Miller from TCU. However, Kamara's potential absence represents a significant hurdle for the Saints' offense to overcome, as they adjust to life with a new quarterback in Derek Carr.
Chris Olave (WR)
Over/Under 1000.5 Receiving Yards
After a stellar rookie season that saw him cross the 1,000-yard threshold, Chris Olave is set for another big year. The former Ohio State receiver, who finished with a stellar 82.9 PFF grade last season, enters 2023 with an Over/Under of 1000.5 yards. Olave was the 3rd best rookie wide receiver and the 16th best overall according to PFF’s in-house metrics.
Olave has displayed impressive chemistry with his new quarterback, Carr, during the offseason, and his impressive 2.42 YPRR (yards per route run) from the previous season bodes well for his chances of exceeding this yardage prop. Olave's meticulous off-season work, which includes adding eight pounds of muscle, speaks volumes about his readiness to elevate his game further in his sophomore season.
With a rejuvenated Carr under center and Olave's rising star, the Saints could be set for an explosive year on the offensive end, notwithstanding the potential setback from Kamara's legal woes. This new-look Saints offense will certainly be one to keep an eye on as the season unfolds.
Offseason Chess Moves
The New Orleans Saints, a stalwart franchise with a penchant for staying in the mix, never seem to miss a beat, always ready to adapt and advance. The 2023 offseason has been a testament to this spirit, with the Saints making some resolute moves to keep their playoff ambitions thriving, despite the departures of key defensive linchpins such as LB Marcus Davenport, DE David Onyemata, and LB Kaden Elliss.
But let's not bury the lead here: the Saints, in a rather bold move, managed to secure quarterback Derek Carr from the Las Vegas Raiders without having to give up any assets. While Carr's future destination became an intriguing saga across the league, on February 21st, the odds for Carr's next team were spread wide. The Jets were at -200, the Panthers at +250 and the Saints were at +300 (25%). However, the Saints emerged victorious in this chase. Notably, all four teams in the NFC South had listed odds to acquire Carr, with the Falcons seen as the biggest long shot at 18/1. The decision made by Carr to don the Saints' colors made them the team with the best and most proven QB in the NFC South and it is the reason they are +125 favorites to win the division.
Derek Carr is not just another name on the roster, but a proven talent who has shown his ability to command the offensive side of the ball. A dynamic leader, he brings stability, experience, and a winning mentality to the team. The addition of Carr alone could be the difference between a mediocre season and a deep playoff run for the Saints.
But the Saints didn't stop there. The decision to sign wide receiver Bryan Edwards turned out to be a rather calculated move. Although Edwards has had a somewhat modest career in the NFL thus far, he has shown promise with Carr as his QB back in their Raiders days. Given Tre’Quan Smith's underwhelming performances, Edwards presents a higher upside and familiarity with Carr, making this addition a strategic play.
In the 2023 Draft, the Saints had an intriguing selection in safety Jordan Howden. Though he might primarily serve as an elite special teamer in New Orleans, his versatility could make him a valuable asset in the secondary if he develops as expected.
Further bolstering the receiver core, the Saints signed Malik Flowers, an undrafted free agent known for his speed and explosive returning ability. His addition adds depth to the receiver group and provides another layer of dynamism to the Saints' offense.
The team's draft strategy also highlighted their focus on building depth along the offensive line, securing OT Nick Saldiveri. He brings elite athleticism and significant positional versatility to the table, capable of growing into a starting guard role while providing support across the line.
Finally, to complement the addition of Carr and to ensure a solid backup plan, the Saints drafted QB Jake Haener. While Haener is unlikely to start any games soon, he shows potential as an elite backup quarterback and already has an established rapport with Derek Carr.
All in all, the New Orleans Saints have maneuvered their way through the offseason with strategic acuity. Their significant acquisitions, particularly the grab of Derek Carr and some promising draft picks, point to a well-rounded, competitive team ready to vie for the NFC South title and beyond. Only time will tell whether these offseason chess moves will translate into on-field success, but the Saints faithful have reasons to be optimistic about the upcoming season.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The New Orleans Saints, embarking on the 2023 season, offer an intriguing story from a power ratings perspective. The Saints' performance during the previous season, as viewed through the lens of advanced metrics, offers a clear snapshot of the team's capabilities.
Starting with the Total Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a metric developed by Football Outsiders, the Saints were placed 18th at the end of the 2022 season. This indicates their overall performance was slightly below league average. However, they ranked 11th in Weighted DVOA, which leans more heavily on recent games. This rise in rank suggests a positive trend for the Saints, one that they might ride into the 2023 season.
Examining the Saints' performance on each side of the ball, their offense was a weak spot, coming in at 22nd in the league according to DVOA. Their defense, on the other hand, was a bright spot, finishing 9th overall. This disparity underlines the need for offensive improvement if the Saints aim to be true contenders in the 2023 season.
The NFL Elo (NFELO), a rating system based on Expected Points Added (EPA) algorithms, painted a more favorable picture of the Saints' performance. NFELO placed the Saints as the 14th best team in the league by the end of 2022, with their power ratings standing at +0.4 points better than an average NFL team. This rating suggests that the Saints were capable of going toe-to-toe with many of the league's top-tier teams.
Shifting to the power ratings of noted analytics expert Kevin Cole, the Saints were again ranked more modestly, as the 17th best team in the league, at +0.44 points better than an average team – a number that matches nearly exactly NFELO’s projection previously discussed. Similar to DVOA, Cole identified the Saints' offense as a weak link, ranking it as the 21st best in the league, and -0.4 points worse than an average team. In contrast, the Saints' defense shined, ranking 8th overall and contributing a valuable +0.84 points of value versus an average team.
In summary, the advanced metrics underscore the Saints as a squad boasting a formidable defense yet held back by their underperforming offense. Despite this disparity, the Saints' encouraging progression, as suggested by their Weighted DVOA and high placement in the NFELO ratings, implies a potentially competitive 2023 season. The arrival of Derek Carr brings the promise of a radical offensive transformation. His proven quarterback skills could provide the necessary catalyst to enhance the Saints' offense, and ultimately, align it with their already robust defense. If Carr can live up to this promise, the Saints could indeed elevate their game and stand among the league's elite in the forthcoming season.
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From Our Podcast: Check out our Pro's recommended bet for the 2023 Saints' season on "RJ Bell's Dream Preview" here.
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