Welcome to Pregame.com's 'NFL Team Preview - Betting Predictions' series, where we delve into an in-depth analysis of all 32 NFL teams. Our journey takes us through the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC), covering every team from East to North to South to West. As we kick off this extensive review, we start with the first team alphabetically in the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills. We will break down their current standing, futures market odds, key player stats, and off-season changes. The aim? To equip you, the informed bettor, with the most comprehensive and accurate predictions in the world of sports betting.
Setting the Stage
Entering their seventh season together, the power duo of GM Brandon Beane and Head Coach Sean McDermott have established the Buffalo Bills as one of the leading forces in the AFC. With freshly inked contract extensions that stretch through the 2027 season, they represent stability and a vision for the future. Since their hiring in 2017, the Bills have notched up three AFC East division titles and have made an impressive four consecutive playoff appearances.
Despite this success, the team stands at a precipice, caught in a balancing act between its achievements and the expectations that weigh on its future. With the Bills having consistently been among the Super Bowl favorites for the last few seasons, there's a creeping concern that the team's window of opportunity may be inching towards a close. As franchise quarterback Josh Allen enters his last year on a manageable rookie contract, a looming $47 million cap hit the following year threatens to strain the team's capacity to build an elite roster around him.
Complicating matters further is a departure from the coaching ranks that has the potential to shift the team's dynamics. After the 2022 season, a surprise split occurred between McDermott and Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier, a steadfast presence since 2017. The Bills initially suggested Frazier desired a year off from coaching, but later developments sparked speculations of a rift between McDermott and Frazier over play-calling duties. With McDermott taking on the mantle of both Head Coach and Defensive Coordinator, the Bills face the 2023 season with an altered coaching landscape.
As we step into the 2023 season, these factors set the stage for an intriguing narrative filled with anticipation, expectations, and a whiff of uncertainty for the Buffalo Bills.
Betting Landscape
The 2023 betting landscape for the Buffalo Bills reveals a shift in fortunes compared to previous seasons. While the Bills continue to be viewed as one of the top contenders in the league, the Vegas betting market no longer views the Bills as clear Super Bowl Favorites. The Bills started 2022 season as +575 favorites and improved steadily throughout the year peaking +220 after their Week 8 win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. The Bills would lose their next two games and their odds never returned to this high point, finishing at +350 prior to their divisional round loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Fast forward to this offseason, the Bills are currently placed at +850 to win it all, based on a consensus from Pregame.com. Although not leading the pack, they find themselves in a competitive cluster, shadowing last year's Super Bowl contenders, the Philadelphia Eagles (+725) and the Kansas City Chiefs (+625), and rubbing shoulders with the Cincinnati Bengals (+950) and the San Francisco 49ers (+950).
TOP 5 Super Bowl Favorites (as of June 23rd, 2023)
KC Chiefs: +625
PHI Eagles: +725
BUF Bills: +850
CIN Bengals: +950
SF 49ers: +950
As we shift our focus to the divisional odds, the Bills remain the favorites in the AFC East. However, with their odds sitting at +125, the forecast is for a potentially heated struggle, underscoring a markedly more competitive AFC East than when Coach McDermott and QB Josh Allen first led the Bills to divisional glory in 2020. The New England Patriots, renowned for their elite defense, are poised for a comeback, having appointed Bill O'Brien as offensive coordinator in the hopes of energizing their attack. The New York Jets, on the other hand, have made a significant splash in the off-season, signing Aaron Rodgers, the league's highest-paid player, bolstering their offensive game with a significant punch. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins, who are banking on the return of a fully fit Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, are looking to regain the form that saw them go 8-3 SU (7-4 ATS) in games Tagovailoa both started and finished. In addition to Tagovailoa, the Dolphins have brought in Vic Fangio, a highly-regarded defensive coordinator, and signed star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, moves designed to fortify their defense for the upcoming season. In light of these developments, the AFC East's 2023 season is shaping up to be one of the most fiercely contested in recent history.
AFC East Odds (as of June 23rd, 2023)
BUF Bills: +125
NY Jets: +250
MIA Dolphins: +290
NE Patriots: +750
To give a sense of how much tougher the AFC East is this year, compare the Bills currents odds to 2022. Last year, the Bills entered the season as -235 to win the division, a number which spiked to -350 after their dominant week 1 win over the Rams.
Using a Future’s Odds calculator, we see that the Market gives the Bills this year around a 40% chance to win the AFC East. That’s a far cry from last year when they had a 64% chance to win the division according to the Vegas odds.
Vegas has placed the Bills' Win Total at Over/Under 10.5 with significant juice to the Over, translating to an implied win expectation of approximately 10.8 games. This is notably lower than their 2022 Over/Under of 12 games, indicating that the Bills are projected to win roughly one fewer game this season compared to the expectations at the beginning of the 2022 season. As it stands, the Bills possess the 4th highest Win Total, tailing the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bengals.
Top 5 Highest NFL Win Totals:
KC Chiefs: O/U 11.5 Wins (Over -135)
PHI Eagles: O/U 11.5 Wins
CIN Bengals: O/U 11.5 Wins (Under -130)
BUF Bills: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -140)
SF 49ers: O/U 11 Wins (Under -140)
In the high-stakes betting landscape, the Bills are no longer the outright favorites, but remain formidable contenders as they navigate a more competitive environment in the 2023 season.
Week 1 Showdown
In a thrilling start to the 2023 season, the Buffalo Bills are set to go head-to-head against their AFC East rivals, the New York Jets, on Monday Night Football. The anticipated game will kick off at 8:15 p.m. on Monday, September 11th, with the nation tuned in to ESPN to catch every down.
After a rollercoaster ride in the sportsbooks, the game's spread has finally settled with the Bills standing as -1.5 favorites at the Meadowlands. This development implies a tight contest, harking back to the early odds that revealed a significant difference of opinion between sportsbooks regarding this game. DraftKings in New Jersey initially listed the Bills as a -3 (-105) favorite, while Westgate in Nevada had the game at Pick'em, at -110 on either side. This 3-point spread underscored the importance for savvy bettors to find the right outlet for wagering. As it stands now, those who took the Jets at +3 are in a favorable position, having secured the closing line value.
As the Bills begin their pursuit of a fourth-straight AFC East title, the Jets aim to make a statement, banking on their prized off-season acquisition, four-time league MVP, Aaron Rodgers. The season-opener is fraught with exciting storylines and sets the stage for a fascinating battle in the AFC East.
Looking back, the Bills and Jets split the season series last year, each winning one game apiece. The Jets emerged victorious in Week 9, but the Bills had their revenge with a 20-12 win in Week 14 in Buffalo. Over the past four years, the Bills have held the upper hand, boasting a 6-2 record against their divisional adversaries since 2019. However, they have only gone 4-4 ATS in those games. Six of the eight matchups have also gone Under the total, with the average Over/Under margin -6.3 in those games.
In this high-stakes primetime showdown, both teams will be looking to kick off their seasons with a statement win. The Week 1 clash will surely be a litmus test for both teams, setting the tone for their respective campaigns in the 2023 season.
Player Spotlights
Josh Allen (QB)
Over/Under 4250.5 Passing Yards
Over/Under 550.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Allen enters the 2023 season with much anticipation. He has proven his prowess as a quarterback, with 4283 passing yards in 2022 despite a canceled game. Over/Under for his passing yards this year is set at 4250.5, hinting at another high-performing season. However, the Buffalo Bills QB's rushing yards have become a point of contention among fans and experts. After recording 762 rushing yards in the previous season, surpassing the set Over/Under of 550.5 yards, Allen has been open about adopting a safer style of play to minimize injuries. This raises questions about whether Allen will be as daring with his rushing attempts in the coming season. His notable statement, 'I can't continue to do this,' suggests a more conservative approach to preserve his longevity in the NFL.
James Cook (RB)
[No Rushing Prop Listed (Yet)]
The Bills' decision to place James Cook as the primary running back for the upcoming 2023 season presents an exciting opportunity for this young player. Unfortunately, as of now, there is no Over/Under stat available for him. However, given the importance of the RB role in the Bills' offense, Cook will likely have a significant part to play in the team's performance this season. All eyes will be on him to see how he steps up to this crucial role.
Stephon Diggs (WR)
Over/Under 1125.5 Receiving Yards
Stephon Diggs is a prominent NFL wide receiver with an average of nearly 1400 receiving yards per season over the last three years since arriving in Buffalo. His receiving yards prop has been set at Over/Under of 1125.5 yards for this season. While this number is much lower than his recent production, reports of a potential rift between Diggs and QB Josh Allen have caused a stir in the Bills' camp and may ward of some optimistic Diggs bettors. Apparently, per a report from former NFL Quarterback Robert Griffin III, Diggs believes that Allen occasionally neglects him in critical moments, particularly during the crushing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round last January. Diggs notably saw fewer targets thrown his away in the second half of the season last year, going from 11.0 targets per game during the Bills first nine games, to only 8.2 targets per game over the Bills final nine games, including the playoffs.
Still, to be fair, Diggs has accumulated a team-high significant 486 targets over his three years with the Bills. Despite being one of the most targeted receivers in professional football, Diggs reportedly feels overlooked in critical game situations. This perceived disconnect, if not addressed, could potentially impact Diggs's performance and receiving yards in the new season.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Buffalo Bills' off-season maneuvers resemble a high-stakes chess game, with calculated sacrifices, audacious drafts, and strategic player retention setting the board for the forthcoming season.
The departure of linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who landed a 4-year, $72 million deal with the Chicago Bears, was a calculated sacrifice on the Bills' part. While Edmunds' expertise will undoubtedly be missed, the Bills were already treading a precarious path with a top-heavy salary roster. Now, the defensive responsibility falls upon Dorian Williams, a promising rookie who was a third-round pick. Williams' potential is immense, and his ability to fill the void left by Edmunds will be a key subplot in the coming season.
In an unexpected twist, the Bills traded up in the draft to secure first-round pick tight end Dalton Kincaid. Not the flashiest of moves, yet Kincaid's selection aligns perfectly with the Bills' intent to run more 12 personnel (two tight end sets). Partnering with Dawson Knox, Kincaid could help create one of the league's most formidable tight end duos, broadening opportunities for receivers like Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
On the offensive line, the Bills filled a significant gap with the signing of guard Connor McGovern from the Dallas Cowboys. Given Josh Allen's exposure to an alarming number of hits last season, strengthening the offensive line was a priority for Buffalo. McGovern's arrival significantly upgrades the Bills' guard position and ensures better protection for Allen.
The addition of O'Cyrus Torrence, picked in the second round, amplifies the strength of the guard position. Torrence's selection is a testament to Buffalo's intelligent draft strategy. With Ryan Bates possibly battling for his spot, the Bills' previously weak guard position now appears to be a major strength.
An honorable mention is also deserved for safety Damar Hamlin, who made a triumphant return to the team following a heart-stopping incident on the field in January. Hamlin's resilience and eagerness to contribute to the team's success further enhances the Bills' safety position.
With the Bills' strategic maneuvers in the off-season, there's a great sense of anticipation. General Manager Brandon Beane has played his pieces wisely, keeping the team's Super Bowl aspirations intact while managing the challenges of the salary cap. This year's off-season chess match is indeed fascinating, and it will be intriguing to observe how these moves translate on the gridiron when the Bills return for the 2023 season.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Rating Perspective
When examining the 2022 season, the Buffalo Bills were a statistical powerhouse, placing highly across a range of advanced metrics. Their dominance, however, fluctuated slightly depending on which statistics and rankings one considers.
The Bills excelled in the Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a metric that considers every play and calculates a team's efficiency by comparing its performance to a league average based on situation. For the 2022 Regular Season and Playoffs combined, Buffalo had the highest Total DVOA. This included the 2nd best Offensive DVOA and the 4th best Defensive DVOA, showcasing their overall team strength. However, their postseason performance showed a slight dip as they ranked 6th best among the 14-team playoff field.
In contrast, other analytic sites weren't as bullish. For example, analytics cite, NFELO (NFL Elo) which ranks teams with rigorous EPA-based algorithms, placed the Bills 4th in their power ratings. Their metrics indicated that the Bills were estimated to be +5.1 points better than an average team.
Kevin Cole, an analytics expert, placed the Bills as the 4th best team in his Final 2022 Power Ratings. The teams above them included the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bengals. According to Cole's metric, the Bills were an estimated +4.4 points better than an average team. Broken down further, +3.3 points of this value were assigned for the Bills' offense (4th best in the NFL), and +1.1 points for the Bills' defense (6th best in the NFL).
Finally, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades, which evaluate individual player performances on each play, the Bills ranked 7th overall in the 2022 Regular Season and Postseason. This included the 9th-best offensive grade and the 14th-best defensive grade.
In summary, the numbers that matter paint a picture of the Bills as an elite team in the NFL, proficient on both sides of the ball. The slight variations in these rankings illustrate the complex nature of football analytics but underscore the Bills' status as one of the premier teams in the league.
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From Our Podcast: Check out our Pro's recommended bet for the 2023 Bills' season on "RJ Bell's Dream Preview" here.
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NFL Team Preview Series:
AFC East
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2023 Buffalo Bills Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New York Jets Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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AFC North
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AFC South
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AFC West
2023 Kansas City Chiefs Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Las Vegas Raiders Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Los Angeles Chargers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Denver Broncos Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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NFC East
2023 Philadelphia Eagles Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Dallas Cowboys Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Washington Commanders Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New York Giants Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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NFC North
2023 Detroit Lions Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Green Bay Packers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Chicago Bears Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Minnesota Vikings Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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NFC South
2023 Carolina Panthers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New Orleans Saints Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Atlanta Falcons Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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NFC West
2023 LA Rams Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 San Francisco 49ers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Arizona Cardinals Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Seattle Seahawks Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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