Setting the Stage
In the game of football, as with life, success tends to be cyclical. Two years after their Super Bowl win, the 2022 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bucs) discovered this the hard way. The transition from a championship team into a middling playoff participant has not been a smooth ride for the Buccaneers.
Coming into the 2022 season, the Bucs had to face some significant changes. Perhaps the most notable being the retirement of head coach Bruce Arians, who was instrumental in their Super Bowl victory. Filling his shoes was Todd Bowles, previously the team's defensive coordinator, whose first season at the helm was a rollercoaster ride that ended with a first-round playoff exit against the Dallas Cowboys.
The Buccaneers, once a high-powered offense, struggled to maintain their explosive potential throughout 2022. Scoring more than 22 points only once in their initial eight games, the Bucs ended the season with an average of just 18.4 points per game (25th in the league). The drop from scoring 30.1 points per game two years ago to just 18.4 in 2022 marks one of the largest year-over-year offensive drop-offs in NFL history.
This decline in scoring was despite having one of the most productive passing games in the league. Led by the legendary Tom Brady, the Bucs averaged 269.8 passing yards per game (2nd highest in the league). This air attack saw Mike Evans top 1,100 yards, Chris Godwin also hit four digits, and Brady throw for a whopping 4,694 yards.
However, the Bucs weren't as successful on the ground, ranking last in the league with an average of just 76.9 rushing yards per game. Their lead backs, Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White struggled to find consistent efficiency.
On the defensive side, Bowles' extra responsibilities as head coach didn't seem to hamper his ability to orchestrate a respectable defense. Despite key departures like Jordan Whitehead, Ndamukong Suh, and Jason Pierre-Paul, the Bucs still managed to maintain a relatively strong defensive presence, finishing the season with an average of 21.1 points allowed per game (13th best in the league).
Pregame.com's Scott Seidenberg discusses his betting predictions for the Bucs' upcoming season with RJ Bell & Steve Fezzik.
This brings us to the Bucs' 2023 offseason, which has so far been a balancing act of managing cap space and attempting to address their pressing team needs. The Bucs faced a significant challenge in dealing with the departure of Tom Brady, who retired, again, leaving a massive $35.1 million dead cap hit for the team to absorb.
The Buccaneers opted to take Brady's full dead cap on the 2023 cap in order to provide the team more flexibility in the 2024 season, in the hopes of resigning 2024 Free Agents such as Mike Evans and Lavonte David. But it does leave the Buccaneers with the second-lowest effective cap space in the NFL for the current offseason.
The retirement of Brady also creates an obvious need at quarterback, thrusting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into an interesting quandary. The two candidates vying to fill the void are Baker Mayfield, a former first-overall pick with a mixed record in the league, and Kyle Trask, a promising but relatively untested young player. Mayfield, with his experience, could be on the cusp of a bounce-back season. While Mayfield ranked dead last out of 31 Qualified quarterbacks in ESPN’s QBR, he finished the season earning several noteworthy wins as a member of the Rams in the last month of the season.
Trask, despite his lack of NFL starts, could bring fresh dynamism to the Buccaneers' offense. The outcome of this duel carries weighty implications for the team's performance this season and their strategic direction moving forward. The younger Trask may have more upside; Baker Mayfield has led a playoff team previously in this ultra-competitive league.
In terms of the offensive line, the Bucs are expected to return only three linemen for the 2023 season. The departures of OT Donovan Smith and OG Shaq Mason will be felt, but the team will still retain their three higher-graded linemen, including Tristan Wirfs, the 7th-ranked offensive tackle in the 2022 season.
Despite an under .500 2022 season, and a challenging offseason so far, there's no reason to count out the Buccaneers just yet. The team still boasts a strong core and has a history of resilience. The NFC South remains as open as ever, and a year of rebuilding could put the Bucs right back in contention. The stage is set for a fascinating 2023 season in Tampa Bay.
Betting Landscape: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The upcoming 2023 season presents a stark contrast to the heights of the Buccaneers' recent Super Bowl victory. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who two seasons ago were hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, now find themselves an afterthought in the minds of Vegas and many in the sports betting world.
The Buccaneers are currently 200-to-1 to win Super Bowl LIX, the second longest odds according to Pregame.com’s consensus numbers derived from seven separate Vegas & offshore sportsbooks. The only team deemed less likely to triumph in February is the Arizona Cardinals, posted at an even more distant 250-to-1.
The underwhelming outlook continues as we shift focus to the Buccaneers' odds within their own division. The NFC South, often maligned as the weakest division in the league, shows a similar lack of confidence in Tampa Bay's chances. The Buccaneers, who opened up at +400 in March, have seen their odds lengthen over time and are now listed at +800, placing them firmly at the bottom of the divisional rankings.
NFC South Odds (consensus odds as of July 12th):
NOR Saints +125
ATL Falcons +230
CAR Panthers +340
TB Buccaneers +800
Intriguingly, the unique competitive balance of the NFC South, which ranks third lowest in average win totals among all NFL divisions, might just be the silver lining for the Buccaneers. This relatively underwhelming performance by their divisional rivals leaves the field open and could pave the way for unexpected breakthroughs. Despite being last year's champions with a less-than-stellar record, the Bucs find themselves in a division where teams, on average, are projected to secure only 7.85 victories, adding an element of volatility that could turn the tide in their favor.
In terms of win projections, the Buccaneers are forecasted to have a losing season, with the consensus win total set at just 6.5 wins. Since opening at 6.5 flat (i.e. -110 either way), bettors have shown more faith in the under, which is now the heavier juiced side. This suggests the market has low expectations for Tampa Bay, projecting them to win only around 36% of their games. These are the lowest preseason expectations for the franchise since at least 1995, which is as far back as Pregame.com's Vegas Win Total data goes.
Bottom 5 NFL Win Totals in 2023 (Consensus Odds as of July 12th)
28) WAS Commanders: O/U 6.5 (Under -120)
29) HOU Texans: O/U 6.5 (Under -135)
30) LA Rams: O/U 6.5 (Under -130)
31) TB Buccaneers O/U 6.5 (Over -130)
32) ARI Cardinals O/U 4.5 (Under -120)
To put these figures into perspective, just two seasons ago, the Buccaneers were the toast of the town, with an elite quarterback at the helm and a top-tier defense. Now, with Tom Brady's retirement and a roster in transition, the betting market has recalibrated its expectations for the Buccaneers, placing them firmly among the NFL's least favored teams for the upcoming season.
It's clear that the betting landscape for the 2023 season anticipates a challenging path for the Buccaneers. However, as every sports fan knows, fortunes can quickly change in the world of professional football. It will be interesting to see how the season unfolds for the Buccaneers, and whether they can exceed the lowered expectations set by the betting markets.
Week 1 Showdown
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are ready to set sail in their first game of the NFL season against the Minnesota Vikings. This NFC duel is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 10th, and will take place at the U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
The initial betting odds had the Buccaneers trailing with +6.5 against the Vikings with a projected total of 45 points. However, the current line stands at Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) against the Vikings, and the total has ticked up to 46 points.
Coming into this season, both teams face a unique set of challenges. The Buccaneers, led by coach Todd Bowles, will kick off the 2023 season with the daunting task of filling the void left by legendary quarterback Tom Brady's retirement. Baker Mayfield, the former Cleveland Browns quarterback, seems to be the leading candidate to step into the breach, but the Buccaneers have yet to make a firm commitment. Yet, even with the change in leadership, Tampa Bay's potent trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rachaad White provides a strong offensive foundation that shouldn't be underestimated.
Minnesota, on the other hand, faces its own set of trials. After releasing running back Dalvin Cook, the team will have to rely heavily on Alexander Mattison to command the backfield. Like the Saints, the Bucs of recent vintage have been known for their stellar rush defense. However, Tampa Bay ranked only 13th against the run by Football Outsiders metrics in 2022, their lowest ranking since 2018. The Bucs ranked 1st by the same metric in 2019 & during their Super Bowl run in 2020.
Coupled with the presence of Kirk Cousins and reigning Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson, the Vikings' offensive force still poses a substantial threat to Tampa Bay’s depleted defensive unit. Tampa Bay may need to take advantage of Minnesota's defensive weaknesses, as the Vikings had the second-highest yards allowed per game last year.
The Buccaneers have struggled with their offensive output throughout last season, leading to a dismal 4-13-1 ATS record in 2022. The transition from Brady to Mayfield, or potentially Kyle Trask, along with the restructuring of their offensive coaching staff, may provide the necessary shake-up for the team to exceed expectations.
On the flip side, the Vikings have proven their knack for scraping together victories. Their explosive receiver, Jefferson, could play a vital role in capitalizing on Tampa Bay's defense. However, the moneyline price of -265 for the Vikings seems steep, especially considering their defensive frailties. A bet on the Buccaneers +6.5 spread could offer a more compelling wager, especially if the line rises to a full touchdown closer to the game day. At the Westgate Nevada, there is a flat +7 (-110 available to bet). Regardless of where the market closes exactly, the Vikings will be in their biggest favorite role in Week 1 since the 2001 season.
The total points line, currently at 46, seems poised for an under-bet. While Tampa Bay's new offensive structure under Mayfield offers some unpredictability, it's reasonable to expect a measured approach, focusing on clock control and strategic plays rather than high-scoring shootouts. Considering the Vikings will carry much of the scoring load, and considering the slower start typically associated with offenses at the start of the season, the under 46 appears to be the sensible wager.
This Week 1 showdown between the Buccaneers and the Vikings promises to be an intriguing spectacle. As the Buccaneers seek to chart a new course post-Brady and the Vikings look to navigate their defensive woes, this game will provide early clues about the trajectory of these two storied franchises for the 2023 season.
Player Spotlights
Baker Mayfield (QB)
30/1 to win Comeback Player of the Year
[No O/U Listed]
Once the first overall pick, Baker Mayfield finds himself donning the Buccaneers jersey in the 2023 season, playing in the post-Brady era. After having been traded multiple times and benched in Carolina, Mayfield is now in a battle with Kyle Trask for the starting quarterback position. If he can overcome the challenges of his recent career slump, Mayfield could surprise everyone. The potential of winning the Comeback Player of the Year is not off the table, with current odds at 30/1. The winner of this QB battle will get to work with an incredible receiving duo in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But it will all depend on whether Mayfield can step up and regain his old form.
Rachaad White (RB)
Over/Under Rushing Yards: 650.5
Rachaad White was thrust into the limelight last season when injuries crumbled the Buccaneers' offensive line. Despite the setbacks, White managed to emerge as a promising player during his rookie season. The Buccaneers' clear investment in him, highlighted by their decision to cut Leonard Fournette and not draft a running back, indicates White is likely to shoulder the bulk of the running duties this season. With the over/under for his rushing yards set at 650.5, White's potential depends on a few key factors: his ability to stay healthy, and whether the offensive line can bounce back from last year's injury plague.
Mike Evans (WR)
Over/Under Receiving Yards: 900.5
As one half of the Buccaneers' dynamic receiving duo, Mike Evans has always had high expectations. However, with Tom Brady's retirement and the uncertainty at the quarterback position, Evans enters the 2023 season with some doubts. Last season, his production took a hit, earning only the 37th-highest target share. But even so, his over/under for receiving yards this season is set at 900.5. If Mayfield or Trask can provide him with consistent targets, Evans could still be a valuable asset. He could be a dark horse in this year's receiving corps.
Chris Godwin (WR)
Over/Under Receiving Yards: 800.5
Chris Godwin, along with Mike Evans, forms the formidable wide receiver duo for the Buccaneers. Despite a potentially tumultuous change in the quarterback department, Godwin's potential remains high, with an over/under of 800.5 receiving yards. As one of the league's premier talents at the wide receiver position, Godwin's production will hinge significantly on the performance of whoever emerges as the Buccaneers' starting QB. If Mayfield can reestablish his form or if Trask can step up, Godwin could very well surpass his receiving yardage prop.
The Bucs will be looking to these four players to step up in what could be a challenging post-Brady season. With the right mix of talent, leadership, and a little bit of luck, this quartet could lead the Buccaneers to surprise many this season. As always, it's crucial for sports bettors to monitor these key players' performances throughout the season, as their output will heavily influence the team's success and betting outcomes.
Offseason Chess Moves
In an offseason initially expected to be quiet, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made strategic moves that could be game changers in the coming season. The organization had to strike a balance between retaining talent and managing the salary cap, leading to a series of decisions on player retention, trades, and signings.
To begin, the team had to make the difficult decision to part ways with Super Bowl veterans Cameron Brate and Leonard Fournette. Their contributions to the Buccaneers' historic Super Bowl 55 Championship will always be remembered. However, football is often a cruel game of tough decisions, and the Bucs' management, amid a critical salary cap situation, found it necessary to release them.
In an interesting move, OT Shaq Mason was traded in what was essentially a pick-swap. Despite these losses, the Bucs were able to retain crucial players like Lavonte David, Jamel Dean, Anthony Nelson, and Nick Leverett, signaling a significant commitment to the team's defense.
But perhaps the most significant development of the offseason was the recruitment of quarterback Baker Mayfield. With the legendary Tom Brady having officially retired, Mayfield's addition will inject both a strong arm and a wealth of experience into the Bucs' offense. This move could prove to be a masterstroke if Mayfield lives up to his potential in the starting quarterback competition.
The Buccaneers made several noteworthy signings during free agency, including the previously mentioned Mayfield, along with DI Greg Gaines, LB Lavonte David, CB Jamel Dean, and Anthony Nelson, among others. The team also suffered losses, including WR Julio Jones (who remains a Free Agent) and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (who has signed with Tennessee).
The 2023 draft brought promising talent to the team. First-round pick DE Calijah Kancey, despite his unconventional size for a defensive lineman, has proven to be an exceptional pass rusher and could become a star when paired with Vita Vea. Second-round pick, offensive tackle Cody Mauch, brings high potential and is expected to play, potentially start, as a right guard.
However, the team's biggest challenge going into the 2023 season is the quarterback position. With Mayfield and Kyle Trask vying for the starting spot, the Buccaneers are in a precarious position. Mayfield brings experience, but his effectiveness will be a determinant in whether the Bucs will have to look for a long-term quarterback in the next draft.
Overall, the Bucs have earned commendable offseason grades from various outlets for their offseason work. Pro Football Focus for example assigned Tampa’s Offseason a Grade of A-. Despite the departure of key players, they managed to retain a solid defense line and recruit potentially game-changing talent. The upcoming season might be challenging, but with competent play from the quarterback position, the Bucs could remain competitive in the NFC South. Their moves this offseason will be crucial to whether this year is a reloading or rebuilding year for the team.
Numbers That Matter A Power Ratings Perspective
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers played three seasons with legendary quarterback Tom Brady at the helm, and now must navigate the uncharted waters of a post-Brady era. With either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask likely to step in, the Bucs' performance metrics are bound to shift, even after a difficult 2022 season reflected in their end of season power ratings.
Beginning with the Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), the Buccaneers found themselves placed 20th to end last season, despite making the 14-team playoff field. Such is the benefit of playing in a down division. The DVOA metric from Football Outsiders’, which contrasts a team's efficiency with the league average, indicates a performance level slightly below par. With their Offensive DVOA ranking 17th and the Defensive DVOA sitting at 16th, it is evident that the Bucs displayed a balanced performance last season. However, their 26th place in the Weighted DVOA, a metric that considers later games more heavily, suggests a declining trend as the season progressed.
Shifting gears to the NFL Elo (NFELO), a ranking metric that employs EPA-based algorithms, the Buccaneers fared slightly worse. The NFELO slotted the Buccaneers in at 27th, assigning 3.3 points worse than an average team.
Respected analyst Kevin Cole positioned the Buccaneers as the 12th best team overall in his final Power Ratings. According to Cole's assessment, the Bucs were +0.78 points better than an average team. In an interesting deviation from the norm, the defense outperformed the offense in terms of added value, contributing +0.70 points as opposed to the offense's +0.08. This highlights a defensive efficiency that could be pivotal in the post-Brady era.
Despite these varied rankings, it's important to remember that they reflect the team's performance as it stood at the end of the 2022 season, with Tom Brady still in the roster. The departure of the iconic quarterback will undeniably shake up the team dynamics, and as such, these power ratings should be considered with that caveat.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' journey into the post-Brady era is bound to be intriguing, as the team seeks to redefine its identity and performance. Despite the ratings suggesting a moderate season in 2022, the potential for growth and improvement remains. The new quarterback, whether Mayfield or Trask, will have a monumental task at hand – steering a team that has recently been under the guidance of one of the greatest players the game has ever seen. The Bucs' ability to adapt to this change will be one of the narratives to watch in the upcoming season.
TB Bucs Power Ratings a Glance:
Football Outsiders DVOA: 20th
Weighted DVOA: (weights later games more heavily): 26th
Offensive DVOA: 17th
Defensive DVOA: 16th
NFELO: 27th, 3.3 points worse than average team.
Kevin Cole: 12th Best Overall, +.78 points better than an average team.
Offense: 19th, +0.1 points of value added
Defense: 10th, +0.7 points of value added.
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From Our Podcast: Check out Pregame.com's Scott Seidenberg's recommended bet for the 2023 Buccaneers season on this clip from "RJ Bell's Dream Preview". Find all of Scott’s Pregame picks here.
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