Setting the Stage
There's a palpable sense of anticipation in the air around the Atlanta Falcons as they get ready for the 2023 season. The team, a perennial dark horse in recent years, is seeking to break free from the clutches of mediocrity that have kept it from reaching the playoffs or having a winning record since the 2017 season. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith and his team enter a pivotal year that could dramatically alter their fortunes. The good news for them & Falcons fans is that the Vegas market has grown increasingly optimistic that this will be the year they translate their potential into performance.
Despite entering the 2022 season with some of the league’s lowest Vegas expectations – Over/Under of only 4.5 wins - the Falcons flirted with the playoffs last year by notching a surprising seven victories, one game fewer than the division-winning Buccaneers. A couple of impressive wins, including against the formidable 49ers and Seahawks, offered glimpses of a promising team. However, inconsistent performances and a lack of stars saw the Falcons' scoring punch dry up and precipitated the need for a change at quarterback. The season had started promisingly with the Falcons covering their first six games, but they averaged fewer than 18 points per game over Marcus Mariota's last five starts. By week 15, Mariota found himself sidelined in favor of rookie Desmond Ridder, a third-round pick from the 2022 draft. In his rookie season, Ridder, however, also struggled, with the Falcons averaging a mere 19 points per game in his four starts.
The Falcons' decision to pass on selecting a quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft signaled a high-stakes bet on Desmond Ridder. His rookie season was turbulent, with a subpar raw QBR of 49.8 and a hideous PFF Grade of 55.6, which ranked 37th out of 42 QBs with at least 130 dropbacks. However, despite these less-than-stellar figures, the Falcons' leadership continues to place their trust in Ridder. For additional context, Ridder's PFF grade was five points lower than 2022 WAS QB, Carson Wentz, whose performance led to his immediate release from the Commanders after the season. In spite of these statistics, the Falcons' faith in Ridder remains unshaken, making the journey of their young quarterback a narrative to watch in the coming season.
The Falcons have shown faith in Ridder, and in turn, have built their offseason around the young quarterback. The rookie signal-caller is surrounded by a talented offensive unit. Weapons such as TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London, and rookie first-round pick RB Bijan Robinson give the Falcons a potentially explosive offense. Yet, their fate largely lies in Ridder’s hands. Can he step up to the challenge and become the leader this team needs?
The Falcons' offensive strategy seems to focus heavily on the run game, with Robinson joining an already impressive RB room that includes Tyler Allgeier and a resurgent Cordarrelle Patterson.
The most significant changes for the Falcons can be observed on the defensive side. The Falcons have turned their secondary almost completely around, with only A.J. Terrell and Richie Grant remaining as starters. The additions of Jeff Okudah, traded to play opposite Terrell, and free-agent signing Jessie Bates III promise a fresh and revamped defense.
Moreover, there's an undercurrent of urgency tied to head coach Arthur Smith's status. After two 7-win seasons, Smith finds himself under pressure to deliver a significantly improved performance to escape the hot seat. The Falcons, despite finishing just outside playoff reach in 2022, have the easiest strength of schedule in the league, providing an opportunity for Smith and his team to achieve a much-needed turnaround. The Falcons' opponents on average have a win total of only 7.7 games.
The betting sentiment on the Falcons has been remarkable and consistent. Initially Vegas opened Atlanta’s win total market with an over/under of 7.5 wins. Since them, Falcons have steadily climbed to an over/under of 8.5. It suggests the betting market shares some of the optimism the Falcons themselves have for a successful 2023 season with Ridder under center.
Whether or not these narratives, ambitions, and strategies will translate into a successful season remains to be seen. One thing is certain, however; the 2023 Atlanta Falcons will be a team to watch closely. With an invigorated roster, a clear vision, and high stakes, the Falcons are ready to spread their wings and defy the odds.
Steve Fezzik discusses his betting prediction for the Falcons' upcoming season with RJ Bell, AJ Hoffman & Scott Seidenberg.
The Betting Landscape
The 2023 betting landscape for the Atlanta Falcons signals an upturn of fortunes for the team following back-to-back 7-10 finishes under their current regime. Sportsbooks posted the Falcons at 80/1 odds to win it all back in February immediately following SB 57. Since then, all of their futures markets including their SB odds have steadily improved – and Atlanta is now 66/1 based on a seven-sportsbook consensus by Pregame.com. The Falcons remain a long shot to make noise in the playoffs, but their steady improvement in the betting market indicates growing confidence from bettors and the potential for them to outperform expectations in the 2023 season.
A crucial barometer of the shifting betting landscape for the Falcons is reflected in their steadily increasing Win Total. On March 27th, when the bookmakers first posted the Win Totals, the Falcons were pegged at Over/Under 7.5 wins. After an active free agency period and a promising draft, the Falcons' prospects rose to Over/Under 7.8 wins. This momentum continued post-draft, with the Falcons' Win Total hitting 8 and rising to 8.3 one month later. The optimism hasn't waned, and by early July, the Falcons had reached their highest point with an Over/Under 8.7 wins, requiring a -130 juice for anyone betting on the Over.
The optimism surrounding the Falcons is also reflected in their odds to win the NFC South. In early March, they were listed at +425 to take the South, but they've since improved to +230, clearly placing them as second favorites behind the New Orleans Saints.
NFC South Odds (consensus odds as of July 21st)
NO Saints: +125
ATL Falcons: +230
CAR Panthers: +340
TB Buccaneers: +750
With an average of 7.6 Wins, the NFC South possesses the lowest average Win Total across all divisions in the NFL. It is clear that in this division, every win will matter.
NFC South Win Totals (consensus odds as of July 21st)
NO Saints: O/U 9.5 (Under -145)
ATL Falcons: O/U 8.5 (Over -130)
CAR Panthers: O/U 7.5 (Over -120)
TB Buccaneers O/U 6 (Over -130)
The Falcons' odds to make the playoffs also mirror this positive shift. They currently stand at +105 (~47% implied odds to make the playoffs) and -125 (~53% implied odds to MISS the playoffs), a far cry from expectations entering the 2022 seasons, when Vegas gave Atlanta only a 12% implied chance to make the postseason.
It's evident that bettors are keeping a close eye on the Falcons' progress. The marked uptick in their futures markets, Win Total, and odds to win the NFC South indicate that the Falcons are seen as a team on the rise. The consensus in the betting community is that the Falcons could surprise this year. In the fluctuating betting landscape of the 2023 season, the Falcons have emerged as a potential dark horse.
Week 1 Showdown
The Atlanta Falcons kick off their 2023 campaign against their NFC South rivals, the Carolina Panthers. The showdown will take place in Atlanta, marking their second consecutive year to start the season on home turf. Yet, it's a streak the Falcons hope to break, as they haven't won a home opener since their narrow victory over the Eagles back in 2015.
The opening odds favored the Falcons at -3, with the Over/Under set at 43.5, which has since dropped slightly to 42.5. However, the odds have remained steady at Falcons -3, a reflection of the bettors' belief in the Falcons' abilities to control the game.
In the driving seat for the Falcons, we find Desmond Ritter, who showed promise in the final games of last season under the guidance of Head Coach Arthur Smith. Ritter, who was groomed for this role, was provided with a simplified game plan that focused on protecting the ball and making safe, calculated decisions. As he enters the new season with a year of tutelage under Smith, much is expected from him.
The Falcons' offense is further bolstered with the addition of top back Bijan Robinson out of Texas. However, it's their defense that has seen the most offseason activity, with a significant overhaul expected to bring improvements from last year's second-half performance.
On the other side of the field, the Panthers bring rookie QB and No. 1 overall pick, Bryce Young. Young, while an undeniable talent, faces the daunting task of making his NFL debut on the road against an Atlanta defense designed to disrupt and confuse. While he was impressive in college, transitioning to the NFL's heightened speed and complexity of play poses a challenge for any rookie QB.
Another issue for the Panthers is the lack of a true number-one wide receiver for Young to target, after trading away D.J. Moore to acquire Young. This is a deficit that may prove crucial in this matchup. The pressure will also be on the Panthers' average at best offensive line to protect Young against an aggressive Atlanta defense.
This game is shaping up to be a testing ground for both teams, as the Falcons aim to prove that their rebuild is on the right track and the Panthers look to see if their gamble on a rookie QB can pay off.
The Falcons, despite their recent history, have the experience and the home-field advantage in this matchup, making them worthy favorites in the eyes of many pundits. With the current odds favoring Atlanta, this could be an opportune moment for bettors to back the Falcons in this Week 1 Showdown. Nevertheless, with the unpredictability that the start of the NFL season often brings, this match promises to deliver a thrilling start to the 2023 NFL season.
Player Spotlights
Desmond Ridder (QB)
Over/Under 2600.5 Passing Yards
As the Falcons' starting quarterback, Desmond Ridder's performance will be critical to the team's fortunes this season. With an Over/Under of 2600.5, Ridder has the lowest passing yards projection for any of the 25 QBs with a posted total currently on DraftKings Sportsbook. However, it's worth remembering that Ridder averaged 178 Passing Yards per game in four starts last season, which projects to over 3000 passing yards across a full 17-game season. This low total seems to anticipate a possible benching in favor of backup Taylor Heinicke. Ridder's performance under pressure and his ability to adapt to NFL's intense competition will be a key determinant of whether he meets or exceeds this projection.
Bijan Robinson (RB)
Over/Under 1100.5 yards
Bijan Robinson is poised to be the standout star of the Falcons' backfield. Despite never having played a snap in the NFL, he's predicted to have a strong rookie season. His Over/Under for rushing yards is 1100.5, the third-highest expected total for the 2023 season, trailing only Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry for the highest rushing projection of any back of any pedigree. Robinson's potential is clearly recognized by the market, and his performances at the college level suggest that he could have an immediate impact in Atlanta's run-heavy scheme. Given Robinson's potential, it's reasonable to anticipate that he will meet or even exceed his Over/Under.
Drake London (WR)
Over/Under 825.5 Receiving Yards
At the wide receiver position, Drake London has a significant role to play. With an Over/Under of 825.5 yards, London is predicted to be a key target for the Falcons' offense. His tall frame and impressive catch radius make him a challenging matchup for opposing defensive backs, and his playmaking ability could help open up Atlanta's passing game. If Ridder or Heinicke can establish a strong connection with London, he has the potential to exceed his Over/Under.
The Falcons' performance this season will be heavily dependent on these players. Ridder's success as a starting quarterback will largely determine the effectiveness of Atlanta's passing game, while Robinson's contribution to the running game could help to balance the offense. London, on the other hand, is expected to emerge as a key playmaker in the passing game. As the season unfolds, these players' performances should be closely monitored to determine their impact on the Falcons' prospects and their relevance to the betting market.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Atlanta Falcons made a series of strategic maneuvers in the 2023 offseason that saw them upgrading their roster, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. They entered free agency with the second most available cap space, trailing only the Chicago Bears, and put that financial flexibility to work. Their aggressive strategy saw them make a number of high-profile acquisitions, making the most of the resources available to them.
One of the jewels in the Falcons' free agency crown was safety Jessie Bates III, Pro Football Focus’s top-ranked free agent in the position. Bates has been a consistently high performer against the run, earning an impressive 88.3 run-defense grade last season. His presence should significantly strengthen Atlanta's secondary, an area that needed attention after the 2022 season.
The Falcons also prioritized strengthening their interior defensive line, adding experienced veterans Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, and Eddie Goldman to the roster. Campbell, who will be 37 at the start of the season, managed to accumulate six sacks, 12 hits, and 17 hurries in 2022, indicating that age hasn't slowed him down much.
In the draft, the Falcons' decision to select running back Bijan Robinson from Texas with the eighth overall pick raised a few eyebrows, especially considering their zone-heavy scheme has seen lesser backs produce at high levels. As analytics guru, Kevin Cole wrote in his Analytical Draft Grades: “The Falcons were big value destroyers, especially in terms of positional draft choices. They burned nearly $10 million in positional value taking Bijan Robinson with the 8th overall pick.” Cole ranked the Falcons 28th in the NFL in terms of value added during the draft. However, despite the unpopularity of the pick in NFL-analytics circles, Robinson's talent cannot be overlooked, and he might well prove to be a difference-maker on the field.
Their second-round pick, Matthew Bergeron from Syracuse, is seen as the best move of the offseason by many. Bergeron, likely to start immediately at left guard, has the potential to transition to tackle in the future. In his last two seasons at Syracuse, he gave up just 24 combined pressures, indicating a strong performance record.
Wide receiver, however, is an area that remains a concern. While Drake London had an impressive rookie campaign in 2022, there is a lack of depth in this area, and the Falcons will need to rely heavily on him. Free agency acquisitions Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller add some options, but they're likely not enough to completely resolve the depth issue. Atlanta's tight end, Kyle Pitts, has a chance for a breakout year, and the Falcons may continue to explore free-agent talent or trade opportunities to further bolster the unit after cutting ties with WR Calvin Ridley after his year-long suspension.
The Falcons' selection of cornerback Clark Phillips III from Utah in the fourth round adds some intrigue to the position battle for starting nickel back. He will compete against veteran Mike Hughes, now on his fourth team in five seasons.
Looking ahead to the 2023 season, the Falcons appear poised to be competitive within the NFC South, bolstered by their offseason acquisitions. However, much will depend on the performance of second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, who must improve from his rookie season to allow the rest of the Falcons’ weapons to excel. If Ridder can elevate his game, Atlanta could be in contention for the division title, using their the rest of their resources to build around an inexpensive quarterback room.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The Falcons witnessed a season in 2022 that left some room for improvement, with the metrics reflecting their quest for consistency and growth. Key questions arising from a survey of their power ratings from last year include – how much might their ratings change should their sophomore QB, Desmond Ridder, show significant improvements? Additionally, will their investment in free agency effectively bolster a defense that was ranked among the league's lowest performers last year?
Starting with the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ratings, a comprehensive metric that compares a team's overall efficiency with the league average, the Falcons ranked 19th. Their position here, the second-best in their division, placed them one spot behind the Saints (18th) and one spot ahead of the Bucs (20th). Their weighted DVOA, which gives more importance to later games, was slightly better at 18th, indicating the team may have found some traction as the season went on, even as their rookie QB experienced growing pains in his first four NFL starts.
On the offensive front, the Falcons put up decent numbers, with their offensive DVOA ranking 12th. This indicates a stronger offensive output than the overall team performance might suggest. However, their defense left much to be desired. The defensive DVOA ranked the Falcons 29th, showcasing a significant area for potential growth and improvement in the coming season.
Switching to the NFL Elo (NFELO), a metric that uses Expected Points Added (EPA)-based algorithms for team rankings, the Falcons found themselves in 20th position, 1.6 points worse than an average team.
The Falcons were placed 20th in Kevin Cole's final Power Ratings. Based on his calculations, the Falcons were -0.77 points worse than an average team. His rating was supported by an 18th-placed offense (+0.35 points of value added) and a disappointing 27th-ranked defense (-1.12 points of value lost).
All in all, the Atlanta Falcons' advanced metrics portray a team with some uneven performance areas but potential for growth, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Their stronger offensive DVOA and relatively better late-season performance might be silver linings for them as they move forward. The next season could bring about significant changes, depending on how the Falcons respond to these insights and make necessary adjustments. After all, the unpredictable nature of the game is what makes it so exciting for the fans, and for the sports betting community alike.
--
From Our Podcast: Check out Pregame.com's Steve Fezzik's recommended bet for the 2023 Falcons season on this clip from "RJ Bell's Dream Preview". Find all of Fezzik's Pregame picks here.
Read More:
NFL Team Preview Series:
NFC South
2023 Carolina Panthers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New Orleans Saints Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Atlanta Falcons Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
NFC East
2023 Philadelphia Eagles Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Dallas Cowboys Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New York Giants Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Washington Commanders Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
NFC North
2023 Detroit Lions Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Green Bay Packers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Chicago Bears Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Minnesota Vikings Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
NFC West
2023 LA Rams Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 San Francisco 49ers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Arizona Cardinals Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Seattle Seahawks Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
AFC West
2023 Kansas City Chiefs Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Las Vegas Raiders Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Los Angeles Chargers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Denver Broncos Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
AFC East
2023 Miami Dolphins Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New England Patriots Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Buffalo Bills Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New York Jets Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
AFC North
2023 Cleveland Browns Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Baltimore Ravens Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Cincinnati Bengals Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Pittsburgh Steelers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
AFC South
2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Indianapolis Colts Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Tennessee Titans Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Houston Texans Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
Get Real-Time Updates: Stay on top of the latest odds and line moves for all the latest sports with our real-time odds from Las Vegas and offshore
Read More: For more articles, odds, and expert picks, check out Pregame news.
--
Special Offers:
New Members: $25 of picks FREE! No Obligation - No Credit Card Required. - Becoming a member is Fast and Free!
Free Pick w/ Code: PREGAME25