Setting the Stage for the Arizona Cardinals' 2023 Season: A Rebuilding Year with a Glimmer of Hope
The Arizona Cardinals are stepping into the 2023 NFL season on a somber note, an atmosphere underscored by last season's dismal 4-win performance. In response to these struggles, the team underwent a significant organizational shake-up, parting ways with General Manager Steve Keim and Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury, who had tenured from 2013-2022 and 2019-2022 respectively. In their place, the Cardinals brought in former Eagles DC, Jonathan Gannon as the new head coach and former Patriots executive, Mike Ossenfort as the new General Manager. Along with these new appointments comes the expectations of a slow and steady rebuild, which means short-term pain. Vegas has responded by giving the Cardinals the lowest win projections of any team for the 2023 season, a projection that has only further declined as the offseason has progressed.
The team's shift towards future-oriented decisions has largely contributed to their worsening outlook. The most glaring move was the May release of star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, which sent a loud message that Arizona is in a transitional phase. The market's dwindling confidence was cemented when the team cut ties with backup quarterback Colt McCoy at the end of training camp, adding another dent to their prospects for the upcoming season.
Jonathan Gannon, renowned for his defensive prowess with the Eagles, assumes head coaching duties with a long-term vision of creating a balanced, disciplined squad. Mike Ossenfort, formerly with the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans, steps into the General Manager role with an approach that extends beyond talent acquisition. His draft picks of high-character players like Paris Johnson and BJ Ojulari indicate a blueprint that values team cohesion as much as individual skill.
Key pieces like safety Budda Baker remain committed to the team, providing some semblance of stability. However, this commitment is tempered by the uncertainty surrounding quarterback Kyler Murray, who has been placed on the PUP list and will miss at least the first four games of the season. Murray's ACL tear from last December has even led to speculation that he may not return at all this year. Despite these challenges, the Cardinals have wisely amassed valuable draft picks and cap space, positioning themselves favorably for 2024. Projections indicate that both their first-round pick and the Texans' first-rounder, which they possess, could be in the top 5—a promising prospect for a team in the midst of rebuilding.
In essence, while the Arizona Cardinals may not be primed for immediate success in 2023, their organizational choices signal a strategic pivot. They have aligned their coaching staff, front office, and key players with a future-oriented focus. Though they're a team operating under lowered expectations this year, there's reason to believe that the Cardinals are setting the stage for a significant turnaround in the years to come.
Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Arizona Cardinals 2023 season.
The Betting Landscape
The Arizona Cardinals enter the 2023 season not as underdogs, but as the epitome of long shots—facing historically low expectations from Vegas. Their preseason Vegas win total projections have sunk to a level that places them as the third-worst, non-expansion team in the past 30 years. Only expansion teams from 1995 and 2002, along with the 2017 New York Jets and the 2021 Houston Texans, have faced more dismal preseason outlooks since the 1995 NFL season. The betting markets fully expect the Cardinals to vie for the title of not just one of the worst teams in the league, but possibly one of the worst teams of the decade this upcoming season.
The Cardinals began the offseason with Super Bowl odds of 150 to 1, according to Pregame.com's consensus. These odds have worsened to a daunting 300 to 1, further entrenching them as the least favored team for the championship. They currently occupy the 32nd position out of 32 NFL teams in the Super Bowl odds ranking.
Bottom 5 NFL Teams in Odds to win Super Bowl 58 (consensus odds as of August 31st):
28 CAR Panthers 100 to 1
29 TB Buccaneers 100 to 1
30 IND Colts 125 to 1
31 HOU Texans 200 to 1
32 ARI Cardinals 300 to 1
When the Vegas Win Total market first opened in March, it pinned the Cardinals at a meager 5.5 wins. As the offseason progressed and the team made moves seemingly geared toward the future, this number has dropped even further. The Over/Under now stands at a bleak 4.5 wins, with heavy vigorish (-160) on the Under, equating to a Vegas projection of approximately 4.0 wins, as mentioned, one of the lowest preseason Vegas win projections in the past 30 years.
ARI Cardinals Win Total (consensus odds as of August 31st):
Over 4.5 (+130)
Under 4.5 (-160)
Regarding playoff prospects, the odds indicate a near-unanimous skepticism. A bet on the Cardinals making the playoffs would yield significantly high returns, with odds set at +1100, which translates to an implied chance of around 6%. Conversely, betting on them missing the playoffs comes with odds at an overwhelming -2000, roughly a 94% implied probability.
Will the Cardinals Make the Playoffs? (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 8/31)
Yes: +1100 (~6%)
No: -2000 (~94%)
The Cardinals, who have not won the NFC West, since 2015 are distant longshots at 28/1 to claim that distinction this season.
NFC West Odds (Consensus Odds as of 8/31)
SF 49ers -190
SEA Seahawks +220
LA Rams 10-1
ARI Cardinals 28-to-1
The Cardinals have not had odds this long to win their division since 2019, Kyler Murray's rookie year after the Cardinals selected him with the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft.
Special Markets Insight:
In offshore markets like BetOnline.au, the Cardinals are the unfortunate favorites to score the fewest points at +265 and are priced at -110 to end up with the league's worst record. It's worth noting that their odds for the worst record shifted from +300 to -110 after they cut Colt McCoy, suggesting a growing market consensus on their bleak season ahead. Additionally, the Cardinals are also +250 to be the last remaining winless team on BetOnline.
All these odds seem to align with a team that appears more focused on future seasons than the current one. Between trading away their #3 draft pick and embracing cost-saving strategies, the Cardinals are evidently in full rebuild mode.
For those keeping tabs on the fluctuating fortunes of NFL teams, Arizona offers a prime example of market skepticism. With long odds in virtually every category, the betting landscape clearly highlights the monumental challenge facing the Cardinals this season. At odds of 300 to 1 for a Super Bowl win, if the Cardinals were to pull off such a feat, it would stand as one of the most unforeseen sports stories in North American history. On the other hand, the market suggests it's about even odds that they end up as the very worst team in the league.
Week 1 Showdown
The Arizona Cardinals are set to face the Washington Commanders at FedEx Field on Sunday, September 10th, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Initially, the Cardinals were listed as +5.5 underdogs. That line moved to +6 after DeAndre Hopkins was released in May and adjusted further to +7 in the days leading up to the team parting ways with their previously presumed Week 1 starting quarterback, Colt McCoy.
The over/under has also decreased, moving from 40 to 38.5, signaling lower offensive expectations for the game. Arizona's quarterback situation remains unsettled. With Kyler Murray on the Physically Unable to Perform list and Colt McCoy released, the starting role could go to either rookie Clayton Tune or newcomer Joshua Dobbs. Dobbs has expressed his readiness for the opportunity, recently emphasizing that he expects to start despite limited prep time.
This uncertainty at quarterback has negatively impacted Arizona's betting line, turning the Cardinals into touchdown underdogs. When the schedule was first released in May, bookmakers like BetOnline and Bookmaker set the Commanders as mere +2.5 to +3.5 favorites. However, within hours of the odds being posted, bettors moved the line to Cardinals +5.5, where it remained until Hopkins' release. His nearly $23M dead cap hit contributed to the team's total dead cap of a staggering $50M, highlighting Arizona's focus on future seasons. Cutting McCoy added another $1.5M in dead cap and has been characterized as the final nail in the coffin for what pundits like Mina Kimes and Dan Le Batard have speculated may be the "most blatant tank job in sports history."
On the other side, the Commanders, now -7 favorites, gain momentum from new ownership and home-field advantage, promising a vibrant atmosphere at FedEx Field. While new owner Josh Harris plans to be relatively hands-off, the stakes are notably high for Ron Rivera and his staff in this Week 1 faceoff against the Cardinals. Rivera hasn't had a winning record in his last five seasons as a head coach, accumulating a 22-28-1 straight-up record over his three seasons in Washington, including a playoff loss to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in 2020. However, by the way that Vegas keeps score, Rivera has been marginally successful, posting a 24-23-4 ATS record with the Commanders. A home loss to start the season could significantly strain Rivera's standing with the team.
This matchup holds unique significance. The Commanders are predicted to be a bottom-five team based on their win total which projects to only ~6.2 expected wins, and they are only favored in one other game this season, (Week 5 hosting the Bears where they are laying 1.5). While the Cardinals will want to play spoiler, this is undoubtedly a pivotal game for Washington and their season's potential trajectory.
The notably low current total of 38.5 stands out; only twenty games had a lower total throughout the 2022 season, including bad weather games, and just three prior to November. Excluding the "monsoon game" between the Bears and the 49ers (O/U 38), this is the lowest total for an NFL Week 1 game since 2017. Despite no weather concerns for the DMV area, the offenses are expected to struggle in this season opener.
One argument for the Over may stem from the quality playoff QB Sam Howell & the Commanders' offense, which averaged 22.3 points over their three preseason games and exceeded their Vegas pregame expectations by nearly a touchdown per game. Howell completed over 75% of his passes and had three touchdowns vs. no interceptions.
The Cardinals' current moneyline odds are +250, translating to a 26% chance of pulling off an upset. This is a decline from their opening odds of +200, which gave them a 32% chance. The Commanders are now listed at -310.
This Week 1 matchup will offer more than just a final score. Arizona's future-centric offseason decision and quarterback uncertainties set the stage for an uphill climb as the Commanders look to capitalize on their home-field advantage under new ownership.
Player Spotlights
Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune or (maybe eventually, maybe not) Kyler Murray (QB)
[No Passing Yards Over/Under listed]
The Arizona Cardinals are in an uncommon predicament for an NFL team at this stage of the off-season; they have no declared Week 1 starting quarterback. Kyler Murray is sidelined until at least Week 4, if not much longer, leaving Josh Dobbs and potentially Clayton Tune as options. This uncertainty has kept Vegas oddsmakers from setting any Over/Under prop bets for passing yards for any of the QBs, a rarity in the betting market.
There has been speculation that the Cardinals may use their 2024 1st-round draft pick (which oddsmakers say has around a 50/50 chance to be #1 overall) for finding their new QB1 of the future. Given Murray's large, guaranteed contract, the team might opt to protect his trade value by keeping him off the field this season. Moving Murray would come with significant cap implications but isn't off the table. His large, guaranteed contract carries with it $46.221 million in unallocated bonus money and an additional $29.9 million in compensation for 2025 that becomes fully guaranteed in early 2024.
Trading Murray is a complicated, multi-year financial calculation that also affects the team's cap space. But it's not all bad news for the Cardinals; they have more than $23 million in current cap space that could be rolled over to absorb potential charges. Given the complex circumstances, it seems like the Cardinals' QB situation is as much a numbers game off the field as it is on it.
James Conner (RB)
Over/Under 725.5 Rush Yards
James Conner, once a standout with the Pittsburgh Steelers, is now largely an afterthought despite being the 6th highest-paid running back in the NFL with a cap hit of $9.45M for the 2023 season. The 28-year-old Conner provides a veteran presence in the backfield which may help mentor an otherwise inexperienced group with no other back on the team having more than one year of experience in the NFL. If the Cardinals decide to move on from Conner after this season, they'd incur a dead cap hit of $3M. With an Over/Under of 725.5 rushing yards, the market seems cautious, reflecting perhaps the uncertainty that Conner will remain the lead option throughout the season.
Marquise "Hollywood" Brown
Over/Under 800.5 Receiving Yards
Following a stellar 1,000-yard season with the Ravens in 2021, Marquise "Hollywood" Brown had a rather muted 2022 season with the Cardinals. Plagued by injuries, he totaled just 709 receiving yards over 12 games. The 800.5-yard Over/Under line reflects a cautious optimism that he might bounce back but also accounts for the unsettled quarterback situation in Arizona.
For sports bettors, the Arizona Cardinals present a challenging scenario this season. The uncertainty at quarterback affects not only the passing game but also has ripple effects on the running and receiving markets. It's crucial to keep a close eye on the Cardinals' player announcements and injury updates to make informed wagers.
Offseason Chess Moves: A Vision for the Future, With Short-Term Sacrifices
The Arizona Cardinals, guided by the new leadership of head coach Jonathan Gannon and GM Monti Ossenfort, are executing a long-term vision that sacrifices immediate success. This strategic pivot is evident in their offseason moves, which have collectively led to a more pessimistic outlook from Vegas oddsmakers. High-profile releases like DeAndre Hopkins and Colt McCoy, along with trades involving former first-round pick Isaiah Simmons and third-round pick Josh Jones, signal a shift away from short-term gains.
This long-term focus extends to their 2023 NFL Draft strategy. The Cardinals traded back to the 12th overall pick, acquiring additional first- and third-round picks for 2024 from Houston, before selecting key players like Paris Johnson and BJ Ojulari. These draft moves, lauded with an A+ grade from PFF, are part of a broader, culture-building strategy aimed at recruiting high-character players who fit into Gannon's system and can be future locker-room leaders.
Financial decisions are intricately aligned with the Cardinals' long-term vision. The calculated release of marquee players like Hopkins and McCoy, coupled with Kyler Murray's placement on the PUP list, aims to liberate $50M in dead cap space and secure high-value draft picks. These moves fuel speculation that Arizona is laying the groundwork to draft a quarterback in 2024, possibly transitioning away from Murray's substantial contract. Notably, Oklahoma QB Caleb Williams, who is a prohibitive -500 favorite to be the #1 overall pick in 2024, could already be on their radar eight months ahead of the draft.
Expanding on their strategic financial and draft maneuvers, the Cardinals have made difficult decisions in free agency, allowing some of their standout players to walk in Free Agency. Defensive End, Zach Allen has transitioned to the Denver Broncos, and CB Byron Murphy Jr. has inked a deal with the Minnesota Vikings. These departures leave gaps in the Cardinals' roster but offer greater flexibility in planning for future replacements.
The upcoming season is unlikely to provide immediate insight into the efficacy of the Cardinals' calculated offseason moves, as these strategies are designed for long-term impact, targeting 2024 and beyond. With a strategy that defies conventional wisdom, the Cardinals are either setting the stage for a masterclass in team building or a cautionary tale in NFL management.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
Entering the 2022 season with high expectations reflected in Vegas win totals, the Arizona Cardinals fell short, prompting a comprehensive overhaul that started with finding new leadership at the GM and Head Coach positions. As the team aims to rebound from a lackluster year, we clearly see through their advanced metrics the challenges ahead and the distance they will need to cover to become a formidable contender in the NFL landscape.
Starting with the Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), the Cardinals ranked 29th overall at the end of the 2022 season. This metric, which measures a team's efficiency by comparing it to the league average based on situation, further breaks down to a 30th ranking in Offensive DVOA and a 24th ranking in Defensive DVOA. These numbers indicate a team that struggled on both sides of the ball but showed slightly better competency on defense.
In the NFL Elo (NFELO) power rating system, which employs EPA-based algorithms, the Cardinals ranked 31st, a disheartening -9.7 points relative to an average team. This low standing underscores their inefficiency and highlights the necessity of their strategic offseason changes. According to NFELO, only the Chicago Bears finished the season worse than the Cardinals. However, if the Bears' QB adjustment for the absence of Justin Fields is removed, the Cardinals would have ended the season as the lowest power-rated team by these metrics.
Kevin Cole, an analytics expert, had the Cardinals ranked 27th overall in his end-of-year power ratings, estimating them to be -2.63 points worse than an average team. When dissected further, Cole's metrics placed the Cardinals' offense at 27th, contributing -2.55 points of value, and their defense at 18th, subtracting -0.08 points of value. This suggests that while the offense was a significant drag, the defense was closer to league average, offering a glimmer of hope as the team rebuilds.
The advanced metrics and power ratings collectively indicate a team that has struggled but is making deliberate moves to improve. The Cardinals' low rankings across these key metrics serve as a baseline from which the new leadership aims to ascend. Their strategic offseason moves, aimed at long-term success, will be critical in shifting these numbers in a more favorable direction as they target improvement in the 2023 season and beyond.
--
Read More:
NFL Team Preview Series:
NFC West
2023 LA Rams Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 San Francisco 49ers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Arizona Cardinals Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Seattle Seahawks Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
NFC North
2023 Detroit Lions Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Green Bay Packers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Chicago Bears Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Minnesota Vikings Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
NFC East
2023 Philadelphia Eagles Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Dallas Cowboys Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New York Giants Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Washington Commanders Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
NFC South
2023 Carolina Panthers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New Orleans Saints Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Atlanta Falcons Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
AFC South
2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Indianapolis Colts Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Tennessee Titans Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Houston Texans Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
AFC North
2023 Cleveland Browns Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Baltimore Ravens Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Cincinnati Bengals Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Pittsburgh Steelers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
AFC East
2023 Miami Dolphins Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New England Patriots Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Buffalo Bills Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New York Jets Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
AFC West
2023 Kansas City Chiefs Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Las Vegas Raiders Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Los Angeles Chargers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Denver Broncos Team Preview - Betting Prediction
--
Get Real-Time Updates: Stay on top of the latest odds and line moves for all the latest sports with our real-time odds from Las Vegas and offshore
Read More: For more articles, odds, and expert picks, check out Pregame news.
--
Special Offers:
New Members: $25 of picks FREE! No Obligation - No Credit Card Required. - Becoming a member is Fast and Free!
Free Pick w/ Code: PREGAME25