A Steady Decline in Vegas Projections for Arizona in 2023
The Arizona Cardinals sent shockwaves through the NFL on Monday by cutting Colt McCoy, their expected Week 1 starting quarterback. This came on the heels of the announcement that Kyler Murray will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list due to lingering ACL issues, guaranteeing he will miss a minimum of four games. The McCoy cut, while freeing up $1.5M in 2023 cap space, has added to an already staggering $50M in dead cap money for the Cardinals. This substantial sum was significantly boosted by the $23M dead cap hit from parting ways with star receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
When the Vegas Win Total market opened in March, Vegas had the Cardinals pegged for a modest 5.5 wins. However, as the team persisted in making financially motivated, future-centric moves, including trading their #3 draft pick, the Over/Under sharply declined to a grim 4.5. The betting line has significant vigorish (-130) tilting toward the Under, resulting in a dismal projected win total of approximately 4.3 wins. Betting spreads underscore this declining trend, with Arizona's Week 1 odds against Washington slipping from +3.5-point underdogs to +7-point underdogs.
In a historical context, Arizona's moves have sunk their preseason Vegas win predictions to one of the lowest levels in three decades. Excluding expansion teams, the 2023 Cardinals now rank as the third-worst NFL team by Vegas preseason projections since 1995. Out of non-expansion teams, only the 2017 New York Jets and the 2021 Houston Texans were projected to have worse seasons entering the year than these Cardinals.
The 10 Worst NFL Teams of the Past 30 Years According to Preseason Vegas Odds (1995 - Present)
With the Cardinals' grim outlook as a starting point, we turn our attention to the NFL teams that Vegas odds have projected as the most underwhelming over the past three decades. Each profile will zero in on the key facts and delve into the specific conditions that led these franchises astray. From seasonal disappointments to franchise-defining decisions and low points, these Vegas projections serve as a barometer for understanding the challenges and miscalculations that have resulted in rock-bottom performance.
Key Metrics
For consistency, we analyze the teams through the following metrics:
- Season Win Total from Vegas Odds
- Expected Win Percentage (Expected Win%)
- Actual Wins in the Season
- Actual Win Percentage (Win%)
(10) 2019 Miami Dolphins (10th Worst, 28% Expected Win%)
Vegas Win Total: O/U 4.4 Wins (Under 4.5 -120) out of 16-game schedule
Season Results: 5 Wins (5-11 SU record) (31% W%)
The 2019 Miami Dolphins season was rife with controversy and intrigue, often overshadowing their on-field performance. The team was initially considered a top candidate for "tanking" the season to secure a high draft pick. This was the team most closely associated with the "Tank-for-Tua" mantra to begin the season. Media reports indicated a stripped-down roster, heightening expectations of a poor season, as reflected in their low Vegas win total over/under of 4.4.
Despite the challenging backdrop, the Dolphins managed to slightly exceed expectations, recording five wins against the anticipated 4.4, ending the season with a win percentage of 31%, compared to the 28% expected from the Vegas lines. This outperformance came amidst internal chaos; Head Coach Brian Flores was allegedly offered $100,000 by the team's owner for every loss to improve their draft position, according to a lawsuit filed by Flores.
The legal battle that unfolded put a spotlight on alleged systemic racism in NFL hiring practices, adding a layer of complexity to the Dolphins' season. Interestingly, as the Dolphins began to win games, General Manager Chris Grier reportedly informed Flores that the owner was "mad" that their draft position was potentially being compromised.
Thus, the Dolphins' 2019 season serves as a case study of the tension between the goals of team ownership and on-field personnel. They not only surpassed low expectations but did so in an environment replete with challenges ranging from roster quality to ethical dilemmas
(9) 2022 Atlanta Falcons (9th Worst, 27% Expected Win%)
Vegas Win Total: O/U 4.6 Wins (Over 4.5 -120) out of 17-game schedule
Season Results: 7 Wins (7-10 SU record) (41% Win %)
The 2022 Atlanta Falcons faced daunting challenges from the outset, mainly attributed to the trade of veteran quarterback Matt Ryan, which left the team with significant dead cap money. The grim outlook was reflected in their Vegas win total, which stood at a mere 4.6. However, the Falcons surprised analysts by winning their first six games against the spread, achieving a 4-4 record halfway through the season.
After this promising start, the team hit a rough patch, eventually replacing quarterback Marcus Mariota with rookie Desmond Ridder. Despite the slump and quarterback transition, the Falcons managed to achieve a 41% win percentage by season's end, significantly outperforming their expected 27%.
The Falcons' defense emerged as a surprising strength, holding opponents under their Vegas win totals in 10 of their 17 games, including a strong defensive performance in five of the last six games of the season. This defensive reliability largely offset the decline in quarterback play, both before and after Mariota's benching.
Against the Spread (ATS), the Falcons ended the season at 9-8, thanks to their defense, and managed to defy initial Vegas expectations by securing 7 wins. Their season serves as a compelling example of how a strong defense can mitigate quarterback instability and beat grim projections.
(8) 2005 San Francisco 49ers (8th Worst, 27% Expected Win%)
Vegas Win Total: O/U 4.3 (Under 4.5 -130) out of 16-game schedule
Season Results: 4 Wins (4-12 SU record) (25% Win %)
The 2005 season marked a rocky start for the San Francisco 49ers, especially for #1 overall draft pick Alex Smith. He began the season behind Tim Rattay, only to find himself at the helm in a disheartening 28-3 defeat to Peyton Manning's Colts in his first career start, where he threw four interceptions. Smith’s performance mirrored a team that was unprepared to support a rookie QB, essentially validating their low Vegas win total.
Mike Nolan, the son of former Niners head coach Dick Nolan, took over the coaching role after Dennis Erickson's exit, but couldn't save the 49ers from being statistically ranked by Football Outsiders as the worst NFL team they had ever tracked at that time. Moreover, their 3,587 total offensive yards were the fewest of any team in 2005.
Despite improving on their previous season's two-win record by two games, the team struggled with one of the NFL's toughest schedules, including eight games against playoff-bound teams. Their 1,898 team passing yards were the lowest in the NFL for the entire decade of the 2000s, underscoring a season where they barely missed their already pessimistic Vegas projections.
(7) 2022 Houston Texans (7th Worst, 26% Expected Win%)
Vegas Win Total: O/U 4.4 out of 17-game schedule
Season Results: 3 Wins (3-13-1 SU record) (18% Win %)
In a post-Watson/O'Brien era, Lovie Smith's 2022 Texans were projected to be as lackluster as their predecessors, narrowly outperforming their 2021 counterparts to rank seventh worst. Second-year QB Davis Mills struggled, dashing early hype surrounding the Stanford grad. The Texans ended the season holding the #2 and #21 picks in the 2023 draft, fueling speculations of another tanking year. The team's lack of progress underlines a sense of stagnation since their crushing playoff defeat to the Chiefs in 2020.
(6) 2023 Arizona Cardinals (6th Worst, 25.3% Expected Win%)
Vegas Win Total: O/U 4.3 (Under 4.5 -130) out of 17-game schedule
Season Results: Pending
Under new management, the Cardinals opted for long-term planning at the expense of immediate success, a strategy mirrored by their uninspiring Vegas odds. The absence of Kyler Murray due to knee surgery looms large, leaving a quarterback void filled potentially by recent trade acquisition Joshua Dobbs or fifth-round pick Clayton Tune. Given that five out of the other nine teams on this list exceeded their Vegas win totals, with an aggregate Over/Under record of 5-2-2, the Cardinals have a statistical basis for possible overperformance. However, the uncertainty surrounding Murray's return date and the quarterback situation continues to dampen their prospects. Dobbs brings system familiarity and mobility, whereas Tune has consistently run the second-team offense, making the QB decision a closely watched element of their season.
(5) 2002 Houston Texans (5th Worst, 25% Expected Win%) [EXPANSION]
Vegas Win Total: O/U 4.0 out of 16-game schedule
Season Results: 4 Wins (4-12 SU record) (25% Win %)
In their inaugural season, the Houston Texans selected David Carr as their first overall pick, aiming for a strong start. However, the team faced significant challenges in protecting Carr, leading to an NFL record 76 sacks—a record that still stands. He also set another enduring league record by recovering 12 of his own fumbles. The Texans concluded their first season with a 4-12 record, highlighted by Carr's 2,592 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.
(4) 2021 Houston Texans (4th Worst, 23.5% Expected Win%)
Vegas Win Total: O/U 4.0 out of 17-game schedule
Season Results: 4 Wins (4-13 SU record) (23.5% Win %)
In the 2021 season, the Houston Texans grappled with a series of off-field issues that severely affected their competitive edge. Legal complications surrounding franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson led to his sidelining for the entire campaign. Tyrod Taylor's subsequent injuries only muddied the waters, fueling speculation that the team was tanking for a high 2022 draft pick. This notion was further exacerbated by lopsided losses, including a 31-0 drubbing at the hands of the Colts, and their notable inactivity during free agency. Under the ambiguous leadership of then-head coach David Culley, the team's resolve was questioned. The Texans did end up with the #3 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Yet, the 2022 season, led by new head coach Lovie Smith, didn't offer much improvement; the 2022 edition of this team ranks #7 on this list, projected to win only half a game more than they did in the tumultuous 2021 season under Culley.
(3) 2017 New York Jets (3rd Worst, 20% Expected Win%)
Vegas Win Total: Over/Under 3.2 (Under 3.5 -140) out of 16-game schedule
Season Results: 5 Wins (5-11 SU record) (31% Win %)
In the 2017 NFL season, the New York Jets were saddled with an expected win percentage of just 20%, reflected in a Vegas Win Total Over/Under of 3.5 heavily shaded to the Under (~3.2 expected wins). Not only did they offload veterans like Eric Decker, David Harris, Brandon Marshall, and Marcus Gilchrist before the season, but they also brought in Josh McCown, a quarterback with a 15-year history of losing games, as their starter. McCown had recently completed a season with the Browns where he went 0-3 as a starter and completed less than 55% of his passes.
These moves led to rampant speculation that the Jets were intentionally tanking for a high draft pick in a quarterback-rich NFL Draft. However, the team managed to outperform these low expectations, finishing with a 5-11 record, and a 31%-win rate. Winning five games led to internal debate and fan speculation about whether the Jets inadvertently sabotaged their long-term strategy by not securing a higher draft pick. Their 5-win performance resulted in the #3 pick, used to select Sam Darnold, leaving many to wonder how differently things might have unfolded with the #1 pick. Would they still have chosen Darnold? Would they have selected Baker Mayfield instead? Would it have made a difference?
(Tied-1) 1995 Jacksonville Jaguars (t-1st Worst, 19% Expected Win%) [EXPANSION]
Vegas Win Total: Over/Under 3 out of 16-game schedule
Season Results: 4 Wins (4-12 SU record) (25% Win %)
(Tied-1) 1995 Carolina Panthers (t-1st Worst, 19% Expected Win%) [EXPANSION]
Vegas Win Total: Over/Under 3 out of 16-game schedule
Season Results: 7 Wins (7-9 SU record) (44% Win %)
Entering the 1995 NFL season, both the Carolina Panthers and the Jacksonville Jaguars were fresh off the expansion draft, burdened with low expectations. The expansion draft, held on February 15, 1995, had forced these new franchises to pick from lists of unprotected players from existing teams. The Jaguars won a coin toss for the first pick in the expansion draft, while the Panthers secured the first overall pick in the 1995 NFL Draft, which they later traded to the Cincinnati Bengals. Both teams had to select between a minimum of 30 and a maximum of 42 players from existing NFL rosters, each of which could make six players available. The Panthers chose 35 players, and the Jaguars picked 31.
Las Vegas set the win total over/under at 3.0 for both teams, translating to an expected win percentage of approximately 19%. Despite these humble projections, the Panthers notably exceeded expectations by securing 7 wins, a 44%-win percentage for their inaugural season. The Jaguars managed 4 wins, slightly outpacing their projections with a 25%-win rate. The performance of both teams, especially the Panthers, challenged the narrative that expansion teams couldn't compete, even when constructed from a pool of largely unprotected, and thus less desirable, players.
The Bottom Line
Analyzing these teams based on their Vegas odds gives us a glimpse into the multi-dimensional nature of failure in the NFL. It’s not just about win-loss records; it's about failed potential, management blunders, and the overall organizational trajectory. While many teams on this list have managed to exceed their low expectations to some extent, the true lesson here may be the danger of setting the bar so low in the first place.
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