Setting the Stage
In what will unquestionably be the most drastic shift of the 2023 season, the Green Bay Packers are preparing to step out onto the field without one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history: Aaron Rodgers. After a protracted saga of uncertainty and friction with the Packers’ front office, Rodgers finally found a new home with the New York Jets, leaving the Packers and their fans in uncharted waters. This "Setting the Stage" section of our GB Packers 2023 preview will take you through the Packers' new reality.
The Aaron Rodgers era, which saw the Packers secure numerous postseason appearances and a Super Bowl XLV title, has officially come to a close. Rodgers, a four-time MVP recipient, traded his Packers’ green-and-gold for the green-and-white of the Jets. The trade deal included the Packers and Jets swapping first-round picks (Packers now pick at No. 13, Jets pick at No. 15), the Packers gaining the Jets' second-round (No. 42) and sixth-round (No. 207) picks this year, and a conditional second-round pick next year that would become a first-round pick if Rodgers plays at least 65% of the Jets' offensive snaps this season. Despite the end of Rodgers' illustrious 18-year tenure with the Packers, the franchise has demonstrated a readiness to chart a new course.
As Rodgers prepares for his next chapter, Jordan Love, the Packers' first-round draft pick in 2020, now has the keys to Lambeau Field. Although Love has had minimal field exposure in his three years with the team, his potential was evident in his relief appearance during a game against the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022, when he completed 6 of 9 passes for 113 yards and a touchdown. Love's new role as starting quarterback will be the litmus test for the Packers' decision to draft him as Rodgers' successor.
The Packers have seen significant changes in their receiver room, with Rodgers taking receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb with him to the Jets. The Packers have not added any reinforcements to their wide receiver roster, leaving a significant gap that needs filling.
As the team moves forward, it's important to recognize the immense talent that Rodgers brought to the team and the void his departure leaves. Rodgers’ tenure saw him completing 5,502 passes in 8,434 attempts (65.2%) for 64,949 yards with 520 touchdowns and 118 interceptions, resulting in a passer rating of 103.3. He was an integral part of the Packers' success and a significant player in their Super Bowl XLV victory. The Packers will now have to adapt and evolve to fill this void and construct a new strategy around Jordan Love.
Head coach Matt LaFleur returns for his fifth season, flanked by offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich and defensive coordinator Joe Barry. Over the last four years, the Packers have posted a 42-29 ATS record, second best in the NFL, only behind the Cincinnati Bengals. The Packers have also posted the third-best SU record over that time, with 49 wins and only 22 losses, behind only the Chiefs & the Bills since LaFleur took over as head coach.
However, all that success came with #12 in uniform. With Rodgers gone, it will soon be clear how much of the team's recent success was due to the legendary quarterback. LaFleur will be instrumental in molding Love into a successful starting quarterback and maintaining the team's offensive potency.
The 2023 season will be a significant test for the Packers, with fans and analysts keenly watching how they manage this transitional phase. As we move closer to the start of the season, the team's plans and adjustments will become clearer, setting the stage for what promises to be a riveting season of football in Green Bay.
Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers discusses his betting predictions for the Packers' upcoming season with RJ Bell & Steve Fezzik.
The Betting Landscape
The Green Bay Packers enter the 2023 season with a unique set of circumstances. The departure of franchise icon Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets led to a shakeup in the futures market for the Packers. The team's Super Bowl odds dipped from an initial 30/1 in February to a less optimistic 50/1 when Rodgers announced his 'intention' to join the NY Jets on the Pat McAfee Show in mid-March. Yet, the Packers have demonstrated resilience in the face of these challenges, and their odds have remained relatively steady since the spring.
In a surprising shift of power within the NFC North, the Lions have leapfrogged to the fore as +140 favorites, following their noteworthy 2022 run. This leaves traditional heavyweights, the Packers, in an unaccustomed position. In contrast, the Bears, also at +400, find themselves in a somewhat typical predicament. The sight of the Packers trailing substantially behind the Lions, barely keeping pace with the Vikings, makes for a remarkable scenario in this ordinarily competitive division.
NFC North Odds (consensus odds as of July 21st):
DET Lions: +140
MIN Vikings: +290
CHI Bears: +400
GB Packers: +400
The post-Rodgers era signals a time of transition for the Packers, yet the betting market displays a level of optimism that is surprisingly resilient. After Rodgers' likely move to New York was known in late March, Vegas bookmakers were cautious, setting the Packers' win total at an initial 7.5, with significant favor towards the Under, indicating an expectation of around 7.3 wins. However, in the ensuing months, a shift occurred. Bettors have increasingly leaned towards a more positive outlook on the Packers, with a rising tide of money wagered on the Over. The pendulum of sentiment has swung enough to prompt a reevaluation. As per a consensus of several sportsbooks from Pregame.com, the Packers' over/under win total for the upcoming season is still set at 7.5, but the juice is now on the Over at -120. This suggests the betting community anticipates the Packers are set to flirt with a .500 season as they navigate this new chapter.
GB Packers Win Total (consensus odds as of July 21st):
Over 7.5 (-120)
Under 7.5 (+100)
In terms of playoff possibilities, the odds are currently against Green Bay. The Packers are at +180 to make the postseason, implying about a 34% chance. However, in a division as closely contested as the NFC North, anything could happen.
Will the Packers Make the Playoffs?
Yes +180 (~34% implied odds)
No -210 (~66% implied odds)
This is a critical season for the Green Bay Packers. They must navigate their first season in years without Rodgers, and their new squad will need to rise to the occasion. The betting landscape is uncertain but not entirely bleak. This uncertainty sets the stage for an intriguing season at Lambeau Field. Despite the odds, Green Bay's storied history and fighting spirit may just surprise the critics and bettors alike. The shifts in betting odds, while not overwhelmingly positive, do provide a glimmer of belief in a competitive season for the Packers.
Week 1 Showdown
The Green Bay Packers will commence their 2023 NFL season with a thrilling contest against their historic rivals, the Chicago Bears. This match, scheduled for September 10th, will be the 205th regular season encounter between these legendary teams and will take place at Soldier Field, the Bears' home ground. This showdown not only promises to be exhilarating but is also a fitting commencement to the Packers' season, given the fierce competition and legacy of these long-time rivals.
As soon as the NFL schedule was released on May 11th, Westgate set the opening odds, placing the Packers as +3 underdogs. However, within mere hours, the betting line saw a minor adjustment, setting the Packers at +2.5, a status that has remained consistent to date. Currently, Bookmaker is offering odds at Packers +2.5 (-105). It's worth noting that these odds were set in the weeks following the blockbuster trade that saw the Packers' veteran quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, shipped to the New York Jets.
The Packers lead the all-time franchise series 105-95-6, including playoffs and, particularly under the leadership of Brett Favre and later Aaron Rodgers, have been dominant in this rivalry in recent decades. If we delve into the records since 1993 - when the Bears let go Mike Ditka - we see the Packers have an incredible 47-14 straight-up (41-19-1 against the spread) record against the Bears, including a 1-0 record straight-up and against the spread in the playoffs. This indicates a winning rate of more than 68% against the spread.
The Vegas odds aim to make each game a 50/50 proposition, factoring in perceived team quality through the point spread. In this context, the Packers' performance against the Bears is akin to flipping a coin 60 times and landing on heads 41 or more times - an event with a probability of around 0.3%. This statistic highlights the Packers’ exceptionally strong performance against the Bears in the recent past.
However, times are changing, and so are team rosters. With Jordan Love now leading the Packers following Rodgers' departure, many anticipate a period of adjustment and potential struggle for the team. This shift might open up opportunities for the Bears to regain some footing in this historic rivalry, particularly with the home-field advantage in this first game.
The Packers, nonetheless, are eager to demonstrate their strength and resilience, even in the face of substantial changes in their line-up. A win against the Bears would serve as a significant testament to their fans that the team remains strong, even in the absence of Rodgers.
So, as we approach September 10th, we're faced with a showdown that carries significant implications for both teams. The Packers are determined to maintain their dominance and show that they're far from vulnerable, while the Bears aim to leverage the new era to reframe their narrative and gain an upper hand in this rivalry. This historic clash is shaping up to be an exciting start to the 2023 NFL season, as fans and bettors prepare for a confrontation that has been a century in the making.
Player Spotlights
Jordan Love (QB)
60/1 to win NFL MVP
Over/Under 3300.5 Passing Yards
The Packers are handing the reins of their offense over to Jordan Love, who steps into a significant role in 2023. Love has been groomed behind one of the best in the business, Aaron Rodgers, but with only 83 career pass attempts since being drafted in 2020, his range of outcomes is vast. Despite the limited sample size, Love's potential is evident, with an average of .176 EPA per play and 9.3 yards per attempt in 2022, buoyed by a single 63-yard play to Christian Watson. However, given the expected conservative play-calling and a lower volume of pass attempts, Love's road to the MVP and even surpassing his Over/Under of 3300.5 passing yards could be challenging.
Aaron Jones (RB)
Over/Under 800.5 Rushing Yards
The multifaceted running back, Aaron Jones, steps into the season with an Over/Under of 800.5 rushing yards, a mark he has eclipsed in three of the past four seasons. Even though the league often casts doubt on running backs progressing into their late 20s, as we saw with the Vikings recently cutting 27-year-old Dalvin Cook, Jones has impressively kept up his efficiency throughout his career to this point. Boasting a seasonal average of nearly 970 rushing yards since claiming the lead running back position, Jones stands ready to contest this yardage again. However, one cannot overlook the impending age curve for Jones, nor the emergence of AJ Dillon over the past two seasons which could alter his production levels.
Christian Watson (WR)
Over/Under 800.5 Receiving Yards
Rookie sensation Christian Watson exploded onto the scene last year, showcasing his potential as a true WR1. Watson finished his inaugural season strong, amassing 52 catches for 523 yards and 7 touchdowns over his final eight games. Should he be able to maintain that productivity over the entirety of the 2023 season, Watson will be positioning himself for a major payday in the near future. With a connection already established with QB Jordan Love, Watson is in a prime position to continue his growth and become a mainstay in the Packers' offense. The question remains whether Watson can maintain his explosive performance and exceed his Over/Under of 800.5 receiving yards, but his strong finish to last season and the early rapport with Love are promising signs.
With the shift in QB and returning coaching staff, the Green Bay Packers are entering a season of change. While Love's development will be key, Jones and Watson's performance will be equally significant. The trio's ability to mesh and maximize their respective talents will be crucial in defining the Packers' 2023 season.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Packers were embroiled in an offseason of seismic proportions, setting the stage for a new era in their illustrious history.
The headline-grabbing move was the trade of Aaron Rodgers, the face of the franchise for the better part of two decades, to the New York Jets. The team received the 13th, 42nd, and 207th picks in the 2023 NFL Draft in return, plus a conditional 2024 second-rounder, which turns into a first if Rodgers participates in at least 65% of the Jets' snaps next season.
This bold decision was a clear signal of the franchise's intent to rebuild. With Jordan Love poised to inherit the reins, the Packers utilized their arsenal of draft picks to replenish their depleted offensive arsenal and fortify their defensive front.
Their first-round selection of edge defender Lukas Van Ness raised eyebrows, given his anticipated availability later in the round. The team then doubled down on tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft in the second and third rounds, respectively, addressing a significant positional need following the departures of Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis.
Second-round wide receiver Jayden Reed is an exciting addition with an uncanny resemblance to Randall Cobb in terms of intelligence and work ethic. He's expected to compete for snaps immediately, bringing much-needed vigor to the receiving corps.
The selection of quarterback Sean Clifford in the fifth round was a contentious move, given his expected undrafted status. Yet, this gamble could pay dividends as a potential backup option to Love, or as trade bait down the line.
In the sixth round, interior defender Karl Brooks - touted as their best move this offseason - joined the ranks. His impressive collegiate performance, highlighted by 12 sacks and 74 total pressures, positions him to play a significant role in the 2023 campaign.
Free agency was less bustling for the Packers, who adopted a conservative approach due to their salary cap struggles. This approach resulted in several key departures, including wide receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, tight ends Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis, and defensive linemen Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry. The sole significant signing came in the form of safety Jonathan Owens, expected to step into the void left by Adrian Amos.
While these moves align with the franchise's strategy to reset their cap situation, they've undeniably left a considerable talent void. Green Bay now pins its hopes on a cadre of young, largely unproven players to shoulder the burden of these departures, potentially signaling a period of growing pains ahead.
Looking forward, the cornerback position remains a glaring need, and the Packers would do well to fortify this position before the season's start. The early position battle to watch will be between Musgrave and Kraft, with the team hoping that at least one of these tight ends can step up to fill the void left by Tonyan and Lewis.
All in all, the offseason marked a major transitional period for the Packers, initiating a fresh chapter in their storied franchise. While the moves made echo a strategic focus on rebuilding, only time will tell if these decisions pay off and lead the team back to their former glory.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
Green Bay Packers, a team that fans have come to associate with perennial success, presented a conundrum during the 2023 season. The mystifying contrast between their losing record and solid underlying metrics was as unexpected as it was perplexing. In the wake of losing their Hall of Fame quarterback, the Packers' metrics tell a story not adequately represented in their win-loss tally.
The Packers' performance, as measured by Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), landed them in the 12th spot. This metric contrasts a team's efficiency with the league average, and despite a challenging season, the Packers' DVOA suggests they were better than what the bare wins and losses showed. The Offensive DVOA positioned them slightly higher at 11th, highlighting the consistent performance.
When it comes to Defensive DVOA, the Packers didn't fare as well, coming in at 20th. While it was a significant drag on their overall ranking, the Packers have already shown intentions of bolstering their defensive line-up in the upcoming offseason.
The Weighted DVOA, which gives more importance to performances later in the season, provides a more hopeful outlook for the Packers. At 9th, this suggests that as the season progressed, the team grew stronger and more cohesive, which may bode well for the upcoming season.
On the other hand, the NFL Elo (NFELO) power ratings - a metric that utilizes EPA-based algorithms - also saw potential in the Packers, placing them in the 8th spot. This metric rated them as +2.1 points better than an average team, indicating that they maintained competitive prowess despite the loss of a key player.
Kevin Cole, a highly regarded NFL data-driven analyst, ranked the Packers as the 10th best overall, adding to the chorus of metrics indicating that Green Bay's performance was better than the raw win-loss record indicated. He had them at +1.76 points better than an average team, with the offense adding +1.3 points of value (ranked 11th), while the defense subtracted -0.47 points (ranked 12th).
These various advanced metrics draw a picture of a resilient Green Bay Packers team that, despite a topsy-turvy season, managed to rank within the top ten on several key performance measures. The team's trajectory, particularly their late-season performance, paints a promising picture for the upcoming season perhaps even without A-Rod. They've demonstrated their grit and determination, the kind of resilience that could well see them rebound with a vengeance. The numbers matter, and in this case, they indicate a Packers team ready to restore its competitive edge.
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From Our Podcast: Check out Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers' recommended bet for the 2023 Packers season on this clip from "RJ Bell's Dream Preview". Find all of MacKenzie's Pregame picks here.
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