Setting the Stage - Beginning of a New Era?

The dramatic fall in the Colts' yearly performances really began with the loss of Peyton Manning in 2011, a season that left the franchise reeling, and from which they arguably have never recovered. Since Manning's departure, the franchise's journey has attempted to fill the void with everything from #1 overall prospects with Hall of Fame ambitions to late-career veterans seeking one final triumph. However, the hopes for these quarterbacks often turned nightmarish. As the saying goes, 'it's always darkest before dawn,' and the Colts now face their lowest expectations since Andrew Luck's rookie year, which in turn was their lowest since Peyton Manning's rookie year. Fans are left in anxious anticipation as 2023 approaches, with dreams centered on Anthony Richardson, the #4 overall pick in the NFL draft.

The Richardson era is likely to commence without the Colts' recent top weapon, Jonathan Taylor, adding an extra layer of complexity. The drama surrounding Taylor's trade request has become a defining subplot of the new season, overshadowed only by the potential Richardson holds for the franchise. All eyes are on Richardson's development, with the situation with Taylor encapsulating the uncertainty of a season that already faces an uphill battle.

ESPN's Adam Schefter's recent reporting on the latest developments on the Taylor-trade-request saga succinctly sums up the uncertainty: "[The Taylor situation] has become a mess...maybe the best thing for both sides is for the Colts to move on from a running back that they thought they had envisioned playing with their first-round draft pick, Anthony Richardson."

The last decade-plus since Manning’s departure has been a tumultuous ride for the Colts, cycling through four head coaches and 18 starting quarterbacks during that span. Andrew Luck, despite the promise, never emerged as the cornerstone that Manning had been, leaving fans longing for a franchise player. Now, as the Colts enter 2023, there's a sliver of hope that Richardson could fill that role, becoming the face of the team for years to come.

After the former head coach, Frank Reich, struck out on three pitches in three years attempting to match his quality roster with affordable veteran quarterbacks—in order, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan—the Colts now turn over a new leaf. With Richardson, they hope to embark on a new era marked by a different style of quarterback play.

The Vegas betting market has been increasingly souring on the Colts’ prospects over this offseason, particularly after drafting Richardson ensured the Colts would have a pairing of a rookie QB with a first-time head coach for the third time in the last 25 years of franchise history. It's a stark contrast to the most recent Colts’ seasons when veteran quarterbacks like Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan held the reins, and the betting market expected the Colts to be good, not great; in contention for a divisional title each season, if not expected to be among the league’s very best.

With Richardson, the Colts look to herald a new era, reminiscent of the beginnings of their last All-Pro quarterbacks, Manning and Luck. While hope for the long term may have ticked up with their new direction, for the current year the Vegas betting market has consistently given low expectations for any team with a rookie starting quarterback and a new head coach, and the Colts have been no exception.

The similarities between Richardson's first crack at the NFL and those of the last All-Pro Colts quarterbacks are striking. In all three instances, the Colts were projected to be among the league's worst teams, combining a new QB, new HC, and a perceived mediocre roster.

Peyton Manning began his career with a struggling roster and first-year head coach Jim Mora in 1998, just like Andrew Luck debuted with a team predicted to be the league's worst under first-time head coach Chuck Pagano in 2012. Similarly, Anthony Richardson will start his NFL career under rookie Head Coach Shane Steichen. Yet again, the Colts are preparing for what may be their toughest season in a decade as they look to rebuild from scratch.

In 2023, the Colts face an Over/Under of 6.5 wins across their 17-game schedule, marking their lowest win total since 2012. The last time expectations were this low was after the two-win disaster in 2011. Curtis Painter was involved, while Manning was sidelined with a neck injury. Even with the anticipation surrounding new quarterback Andrew Luck in 2012, the Colts were projected to win only 5.5 games in a 16-game schedule. However, they surpassed expectations, winning 11 games that year and consistently outpacing Vegas expectations in the following years. Unfortunately, Luck's career declined due to injuries, culminating in his sudden retirement just before the 2019 NFL Season. Indianapolis has struggled since.

Looking further back to the Peyton Manning era, his rookie year in 1998 was also marked by extremely low team expectations. For Manning's debut season, Vegas set a win total of Over/Under 5.5 games in a 16-game schedule. Unlike Luck, Manning's Colts had a rough start, winning only three games in his rookie campaign. But patience paid off as the Colts went on to achieve one of the most consistently successful periods in modern football, with 8 division titles, 138 regular season wins, and a Super Bowl victory over the next twelve years.

As Colts fans anticipate the next chapter, their hopes rest with Anthony Richardson, the #4 pick in the 2023 NFL draft. They would love to see an instant success story similar to Luck's debut but, above all, the fanbase yearns for the sustained relevance that has been elusive without a true franchise QB, something arguably they last experienced with Peyton Manning.

  

Pregame.com's Dave Essler & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Indianpolis Colts 2023 season.

The Betting Landscape

The Indianapolis Colts betting landscape in the 2023 offseason presents a somewhat pessimistic view of the team's prospects. After opening near 80/1 to win Super Bowl 58 according to Pregame.com's consensus of seven sportsbooks back in February, the odds have been downgraded. The Colts now sit at a distant 125/1 to claim the championship, ranking as the 30th favorite out of the 32 NFL teams.

Bottom 5 NFL Teams in Odds to win Super Bowl 58 (consensus odds as of August 22nd):

CAR Panthers 95 to 1

TB Buccaneers 105 to 1

IND Colts 125 to 1

HOU Texans 200 to 1

ARI Cardinals 265 to 1

This downgrade in Super Bowl odds may be linked to the internal turmoil and the recent conflicts involving key players like running back Jonathan Taylor. The uncertainty surrounding the team's offense with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson and defense with lingering questions has not helped the team's perception in the market.

In terms of the AFC South, the Jaguars lead the way at -175, while the Colts sit third at +600. This suggests a lack of faith in the Colts as contenders for the division title, particularly in the face of the dominant Jaguars. The last time the Colts faced such low expectations within the division was in 2017, with 6/1 odds when Andrew Luck was expected to miss the season due to injury. To find longer preseason odds, you'd have to revisit Luck's rookie year in 2012 when the Colts were 20/1 to win the AFC South. Although Luck was seen as a more promising prospect than Richardson, the perception of the rest of the Colts' roster was far more negative in 2012 compared to the view of the non-QB elements of the team today.

AFC South Odds (consensus odds as of August 22nd):

JAX Jaguars: -175

TEN Titans: +340

IND Colts: +600

HOU Texans: +850

The market also exhibits skepticism regarding the Colts' chances to make the playoffs, with a +350 offering (~21% implied odds) for a postseason appearance and -425 (~79% implied odds) against it. This trend is a significant deviation from the Colts' past success when they notched an incredible 14 playoff berths in 16 seasons from 1999 to 2014. Since then, the Colts have only reached the postseason in two of the past 8 seasons, and the Vegas market expects them to break that trend in about 1 out of 5 simulations for the upcoming season.

Will the Colts Make the Playoffs?

Yes: +350 (~21%)

No: -425 (~79%)

The situation is reflected in their win total as well. The Colts' Over/Under was originally set at 6.5 with heavy vigorish on the Over, approximating to a Win expectation of around ~6.8 wins. However, as the offseason unfolded, the market cooled down, and the Over/Under remains at 6.5, with the odds equally set at -110 on either side.

IND Colts Win Total (consensus odds as of August 22nd):

Over 6.5 (-110)

Under 6.5 (-110)

The Indianapolis Colts' betting landscape paints a picture of caution and concern as they enter the 2023 season. The betting market's shift in odds reflects a lack of conviction in the team's ability to contend, particularly in the Super Bowl and AFC South division races. With significant questions on both sides of the ball and the uncertainty around key players, it seems the oddsmakers are waiting to see how the Colts respond to adversity before making any bold predictions. The Colts' journey may offer intrigue for those interested in a potential underdog story, but the current betting landscape leans towards caution for the upcoming season.

  

Week 1 Showdown

The Indianapolis Colts find themselves in a fascinating position as they host the Jacksonville Jaguars to open their 2023 NFL season on Sunday, September 10th, at Lucas Oil Stadium. A divisional clash in the AFC South, the game will kick off at 1:00 PM ET and it's far more than just a season opener; it's a confrontation filled with expectations and unique dynamics.

The market's opening number began as a Pick'em at certain bookmakers, such as BetOnline, but within hours it had quickly settled at Colts +3.5 (O/U 43.5). After months of availability, the current line leans further towards the Jaguars, now at Colts +4.5 (O/U 43.5). This line movement reflects the overall sentiment in the betting market about the Jaguars' dominance and the Colts' ongoing rebuilding phase.

The Colts are entering this season with the debut of their new head coach, Shane Steichen, and the highly anticipated start of their No. 4 overall draft pick, quarterback Anthony Richardson. With Richardson's elite athletic ability, even though he didn't have a standout career at the University of Florida, he's garnered attention for his playmaking prowess. This infusion of fresh talent brings a new layer of excitement and unpredictability to the Colts' game, potentially disrupting the Jaguars' preparations.

However, the challenge facing the Colts is more profound. The Jaguars, last season's AFC South champions, who nearly bested the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round, are favorites to win the division again. Trevor Lawrence's rising stardom, coupled with the Jaguars' robust passing game and versatile offensive strategies, paints a daunting picture for Indianapolis.

While the Colts have some valuable pieces in place, such as future Hall of Famer Quenton Nelson leading the offensive line and potentially a disgruntled All-Pro running back in Jonathan Taylor, they remain undoubtedly in a rebuilding phase overall. The uncertainty surrounding the quarterback situation, with Richardson expected to operate under center early in the season, adds intrigue but also potential complications. The Jags' offensive capabilities are expected to stretch the Colts' defense, which faced myriad issues last season.

The overwhelming sentiment points towards Jacksonville's superiority in nearly all facets of the game, and we should not be surprised to see more money on Jags -4.5 or moneyline bets on Jacksonville at -165, as the public becomes increasingly involved before NFL Week 1.

The Over/Under line is trickier to approach, set at 43.5. Given Jacksonville's potent offense and the unknown variables surrounding the Colts' offensive capabilities under Richardson, it might be wise to stay away from this line.

What makes this showdown genuinely compelling is the undercurrent of change and challenge. For the Colts, it's an opportunity to usher in a new era under Coach Steichen and rookie quarterback Richardson, and to prove that they are more than just a team in a rebuilding phase. For the Jaguars, it's a platform to affirm their status as serious contenders and to carry the momentum from a strong finish in 2022.

As divisional rivals in the AFC South, the significance of a Week 1 victory cannot be understated. With both teams motivated by different goals, the stage is set for a potentially revealing showdown that will undoubtedly shape the narrative for the 2023 NFL season. In the charged environment of Lucas Oil Stadium, with the Colts seeking to prove their potential and the Jaguars aiming to assert their dominance, this game is more than a mere matchup; it's a statement.

  

Player Spotlights

 

Anthony Richardson (QB)

Over/Under 2800.5 Passing Yards

The Colts are counting on Anthony Richardson to lead their offense, but the rookie quarterback faces a challenging task. With an Over/Under of 2800.5 passing yards, expectations for Richardson are relatively modest, ranking just above Desmond Ridder as the second-lowest passing projection among the 25 quarterbacks with passing props listed on DraftKings sportsbooks.  The presence of backup Gardner Minshew may be artificially depressing Richardson's projections, much like how Taylor Heinicke's presence in Atlanta might be affecting expectations for Ridder. The market seems to have also considered a potential mid-season quarterback change between Richardson and Minshew, adding further downward pressure on this prop. Richardson's relative inexperience at only 21 and potential struggles are reflected in both this prop market and in the special odds from BetOnline for the first rookie QB to be benched, where he stands as a significant -150 favorite ahead of fellow rookies Bryce Young and CJ Stroud.

First QB To Be Benched Odds (Non-Injury)

IND QB Anthony Richardson -150

HOU QB CJ Stroud +210

CAR QB Bryce Young +450

Richardson's inexperience in the NFL and a completion percentage of 54.7% within the last five NFL draft classes (ranking 56th out of 57) underline the significant challenges ahead. Under the guidance of new head coach Shane Steichen, known for enhancing dual-threat skills and ranking fourth in overall Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, Richardson's development will be vital to the Colts' success this season.

  

Jonathan Taylor (RB)

40-to-1 to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year (tied for 21st favorite)

[No Rushing Prop Over/Under listed]

A cloud of uncertainty surrounds Jonathan Taylor's future with the Colts. The All-Pro tailback and 2021 NFL rushing champion has been given permission to seek a trade partner amid contract disputes and health concerns following ankle surgery. Taylor's absence leaves a significant void in the Colts' offense, and sportsbooks have refrained from setting an Over/Under number. Whether or not Taylor remains a Colt, his 40/1 odds to win NFL OPOY reflect his high ceiling as an all-around offensive threat.

  

Michael Pittman (WR)

Over/Under 800.5 Receiving Yards

With the possible absence of Taylor, Michael Pittman stands as one of the Colts' main offensive threats. The wide receiver's Over/Under is set at 800.5 receiving yards. Pittman's role in the offense is likely to increase, but opposing defenses may focus more on him, making it a challenging task to surpass this mark. The success of the Colts' offense under Steichen's new system may hinge on Pittman's ability to step up as a primary target for Richardson.

  

The Colts' season may depend heavily on the performance of these key players. Richardson's development under Steichen, Taylor's uncertain future, and Pittman's ability to rise to the challenge will be central themes. As the season progresses, watching how these storylines unfold will be crucial for sports bettors and Colts fans alike. Whether the Colts will succeed in rebuilding their offense under their new coaching staff, or face difficulties, will depend largely on these players' performances. As always, careful monitoring and strategic betting based on these dynamics could provide valuable insights and opportunities throughout the season.

  

Offseason Chess Moves

The Indianapolis Colts' 2023 offseason has been defined by the arrival of head coach Shane Steichen, marking a new era in the franchise's history and the fourth regime in Indianapolis since Peyton Manning's departure. Hired on February 14, 2023, after coordinating an Eagles' offense that led the NFL in numerous rushing categories, Steichen has embarked on a careful strategizing and delicate balancing act with the Colts, aiming for both immediate improvement and long-term success.

His most significant move came in the form of drafting quarterback Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick, symbolizing the Colts' commitment to rebuild around a solid quarterback. Alongside this youthful prospect, Steichen secured veteran Gardner Minshew, echoing his past success with nurturing young talent like Jalen Hurts while preserving experienced options under center.Yet, Steichen's offseason has also been marked by the potential departure of star running back Jonathan Taylor. Despite leading the NFL in rushing in '21 and attaining First-Team All-Pro status, Taylor became disgruntled after owner Jim Irsay dismissed the value of NFL running backs this offseason, and the team declined to make any offer of an extension to the third-year first-round draft pick. Recently, Taylor has been granted permission to seek a trade, with teams like the Dolphins expected to explore a deal. The Colts have set their asking price at a minimum of a first-round pick or a package of similar value, a factor that could complicate negotiations. The possibility of trading Taylor, a centerpiece of the Colts' offense, illustrates the complexity of Steichen's task in redefining the team and may raise concerns about the run game's future, as well as questions about the franchise's ability to balance fiscal considerations with on-field performance.

The Steichen era further includes the bolstering of defense with the addition of cornerback Julius Brents and enhancing the offense with wide receiver Josh Downs. The Colts' fiscal prudence, preserving over $23 million in cap space this year and projecting to have $78 million next year, signifies a careful approach to the market under Steichen's leadership.

Challenges persist, however. Concerns about the safety position and overall thinness on defense might hinder the Colts' contention in the AFC South. Steichen's balanced approach is manifest in the contrasting strategies of high risk and high reward, as with drafting Richardson, and conservative, intelligent actions such as preserving cap space.

The Colts are well-positioned financially and have made strides in addressing key areas under Steichen's guidance. The 2023 season will reveal whether the Colts' careful offseason maneuvering will pay off under the new Steichen regime, both in the immediacy of the upcoming season and in the franchise's broader future ambitions. The potential trade of Jonathan Taylor adds a layer of uncertainty but also emphasizes Steichen's willingness to make bold decisions. Steichen's experience and record hint at promising days ahead, but the legacy of the new era will be carved on the gridiron, with every move, including decisions around Taylor, shaping the future of the Colts.

  

Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective

The Indianapolis Colts, one of the NFL's most disheartening stories in the previous season, stand as a complex case study in expectation, performance, and disappointment. Despite lofty preseason aspirations, the Colts fell remarkably short of both their anticipated 10-win target and divisional triumph, collapsing to a mere 4-win season. This stark contrast between expectation and realization begs the question: Was the talent truly there as projected, or were initial predictions grossly overestimated? The ambiguity that shrouds this enigma permeates the advanced metrics and power ratings of the team's performance.

A look at the Colts' Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) paints a bleak picture as they sit dead last in the NFL at 32nd, with their offense likewise languishing at the bottom. While the weighted DVOA also placed them at 32nd, reflecting the overall dismal performance, the defensive DVOA offers a glimmer of hope at 13th, showcasing a disconnect between the team's offensive and defensive units.

The promotion of the inexperienced former player, Jeff Saturday, to lead the team as head coach after Frank Reich's November dismissal is a notable footnote in the Colts' 2022 season. This experimental move, including the unforgettable collapse of a 33-point lead—the largest blown lead in NFL history—casts a shadow on the team's statistics. The second half of the season's numbers, marred by these out-of-the-box decisions, must be evaluated cautiously.

Further compounding the Colts' woes, the NFL Elo (NFELO) positioned them 30th, a demoralizing -8.1 points versus an average team. Kevin Cole's analysis resonated with this sentiment, ranking them the 2nd worst in the league at 31st, with an offensive contribution of -5.26 points of value added and a barely notable defensive subtraction of 0.05 points.

This web of advanced metrics sketches a vivid and uncomfortable portrait of the Colts' 2022 campaign. A combination of failed experiments, misguided projections, and glaring offensive inadequacies culminated in a season that sits as a cautionary tale. The disparity between offensive failure and defensive competence adds further complexity to the analysis.

The Colts' 2022 season was a narrative of unmet expectations, wild experimentation, and ultimate disappointment. The metrics and ratings not only highlight their underachievement but also raise probing questions about the real talent within the squad, the credibility of initial projections, and the impact of radical mid-season changes. As the Colts prepare for a new season, these numbers serve as a stark reminder of the intricate dynamics that shape NFL success and failure, leaving fans and analysts alike pondering the path to redemption.

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