Setting the Stage: From Collapse to Comeback, the LA Chargers' 2023 Mission To Rebound from 27-0 Fiasco
The 2022 NFL season for the LA Chargers can be summarized as a case study in inconsistency and unmet potential. The team had a postseason run that is more remembered for its dramatic collapse than its initial promise. Leading 27-0 against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the playoffs, the Chargers found a way to lose 31-30, marking one of the most startling game reversals in NFL history. As Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. lamented, "I’ve been playing football 21 years and I ain’t never felt like this."
Despite taking a 27-point lead, the Chargers' inability to close out games came back to haunt them. This wasn't a one-game blunder but rather the culmination of a season filled with erratic play. The team struggled to run the ball effectively, which impacted their ability to control the clock when it mattered most. In the playoffs alone, the Chargers rushed for a meager 67 yards on 23 carries, averaging just 2.9 yards per attempt.
But this is a team that isn't short on talent. Justin Herbert, while inconsistent last year, is still considered a top-tier quarterback. The team's receiving corps is also robust, featuring talents like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Not to mention, they've added first-round receiver Quentin Johnston to bolster the attack. On defense, stars like Joey Bosa and Derwin James are nothing short of elite.
With a roster this strong, it's not surprising that expectations remain high, even if the Chargers have been perennial underachievers. And that's the dilemma. While they have the talent to contend for a Super Bowl, their track record is filled with missed opportunities and blown leads.
As for head coach Brandon Staley, his seat is decidedly warm. Staley's strategic choices have not gone unnoticed, raising questions about his aptitude for leadership. His future with the team remains uncertain, especially as fans wonder when Justin Herbert's talent will turn into more consistent wins. Herbert's career record stands at 25-25 SU, including going 19-16 SU & ATS under Staley.
Amid the scrutiny of Staley, the Chargers have acted decisively this offseason to improve their offensive capabilities. Following their playoff collapse to the Jaguars, the team swiftly dismissed offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and quickly brought in Kellen Moore. Moore arrives from a notably successful role as the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys for the last four seasons, and he is now tasked with harnessing Herbert's high potential. These adjustments might alleviate some skepticism about Staley, but they also present new questions about the franchise's long-term objectives and direction.
The franchise has not won a division title since 2009 and has only two wild-card playoff wins to show since then. The Chargers' depth chart may look promising, but unless they can address their glaring weaknesses and inconsistencies, 2023 could very well be another year of what-ifs and missed chances.
Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the LA Chargers 2023 season.
The Betting Landscape
When it comes to the Chargers, the betting market has been rather stable since season odds were released. As of August 31st, 2023, Pregame.com's consensus of seven sportsbooks positions them as the 9th favorite in Super Bowl odds, with a 21-to-1 chance.
Top 10 Super Bowl Favorites (Pregame.com Consensus Odds as of August 31st, 2023)
KC Chiefs +600
PHI Eagles +750
BUF Bills +850
SF 49ers +900
CIN Bengals 10-to-1
DAL Cowboys 13-to-1
NY Jets 16-to-1
BAL Ravens 18-to-1
LA Chargers 21-to-1
MIA Dolphins 23-to-1 (LAC’s Week 1 opponent)
Maintaining steady odds since their introduction, the Chargers linger just behind the dominant Kansas City Chiefs in their division. However, they're not far off the pace, creating the potential for upward movement as the season unfolds. The Chargers' consensus odds to win the division stand at +290, placing them as the second favorite behind only the Chiefs, who are at -175.
AFC West Divisional Odds (consensus odds as of 8/31)
KC Chiefs -175 (~58%)
LA Chargers +290 (~23%)
DEN Broncos +575 (~13%)
LV Raiders 16-to-1 (~5%)
By using Gaming Today's future odds calculator, we see that the Chargers have a Vegas-implied 23% chance of capturing the AFC West title. This is notably less than half of the Chiefs' projected 58% chance to claim their 8th consecutive division title. On the other hand, the Chargers' slice of the pie surpasses the combined odds of the Raiders and Broncos, who hold a 5% and 13% chance, respectively.
Worth noting is the Chargers' two near-misses against the Chiefs last season—each game decided by a last-minute field goal after a Patrick Mahomes-led fourth-quarter comeback. Given this competitive history, the Chargers have a credible shot at dethroning Kansas City, the division's seven-time defending champ.
Securing victories in head-to-head matchups against the Chiefs will be critical for the Chargers' AFC West title aspirations. In Week 7, the Chargers have been installed as +5.5-point underdogs as they visit Kansas City. Later, in Week 18, they find themselves as +2-point underdogs while hosting the Chiefs at SoFi Stadium. It's worth noting that the implications of this Week 18 game are still uncertain, as it could have varying degrees of impact on both teams' playoff seeding.
For win totals, the market remains cautiously optimistic, echoing sentiments from the 2022 season. The consensus over/under is 9.5 games, with the "over" slightly favored at odds of -130.
LA Chargers Win Total (consensus odds as of 8/31)
Over 9.5 -130
Under 9.5 +110
Last season, the Chargers pushed against their preseason Vegas Win Total of Over/Under 10 games, winning exactly 10 of their 17 regular season games. This year, however, the market has slightly tempered those expectations, assigning LA with a consensus over/under of 9.5, with -130 vigorish on the over equating to a projection of around ~9.7 wins. This slight downgrade from a year ago may be in response to the team's playoff collapse last season—a historic meltdown that might bring lingering effects on the team's morale and cohesion. Brandon Staley sits as a top 5 favorite to be the first NFL coach fired this season according to offshore betting markets.
When it comes to playoff chances, current odds suggest a marginally better "Yes" scenario. Odds for a postseason appearance are at -125, translating to an implied probability of around 53%.
Will the Chargers Make the Playoffs? (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 8/31)
Yes -125 (~53%)
No +105 (~47%)
If these projections hold, the franchise is set for another robust season, laying the groundwork for consecutive playoff runs for the first time since the 2008-2009 campaigns.
In summary, the Chargers enter the new season in a noteworthy position. They're neither favorites nor long shots, with the market showing restrained optimism. Their near-wins against formidable teams like the Chiefs make them an appealing dark horse in the 2023 betting landscape.
Week 1 Showdown
The LA Chargers are set to kick off their 2023 NFL season with a high-stakes duel against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, September 10th, at the state-of-the-art SoFi Stadium. This isn't just any season opener; it's a rematch of last year's Week 12 game, adding an extra layer of intrigue to an already compelling matchup. The opening odds had the Chargers favored at -2.5, but that has since moved to -3, a significant shift given that 10% of NFL games with spreads in this range end with the favorite winning by exactly 3 points. This line movement is likely influenced by the Dolphins losing CB Jaylen Ramsey, a key player in their defense against the Chargers' potent aerial attack led by Justin Herbert.
Herbert, who threw for 367 yards in their last meeting, will look to exploit a Dolphins secondary that's now missing Ramsey. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers' defense, even when short-handed, managed to stifle Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins' top-ranked pass offense last year. The question is whether they can replicate this defensive masterclass. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler, who had 104 scrimmage yards in the last matchup, could also be a game-changer, especially in short-yardage situations.
Last year, Chargers' Head Coach Brandon Staley seemed to provide the NFL with a blueprint on how to neutralize the Dolphins' timing-based passing attack. The Chargers packed the middle of the field, forcing Tua to throw outside the hashes, which led to one of his worst performances. This tactical move has been credited with initiating a decline in the Dolphins' offensive output for the remainder of the season. Starting with this game the Dolphins averaged under 20 PPG their final five games of the regular season after having scored just under 25 PPG in eleven games previously.
The market has adjusted its perception of both teams since their last meeting. The Chargers are now favored with approximately a 60% chance of winning, according to the current spread. This is a notable shift from last year, when the Dolphins were 3-point favorites. The market is likely factoring in not only the Dolphins' player loss but also the tactical edge that the Chargers demonstrated in their previous meeting.
As both teams eye a strong start to their respective campaigns, this Week 1 showdown is more than just a game: it's a statement of intent. The Chargers, with their tactical acumen and key players, are well-positioned to capitalize on the Dolphins' vulnerabilities. However, the NFL is a league of adjustments, and it remains to be seen if the Dolphins have found a counter to the Chargers' successful defensive scheme from last year. The stage is set for an electrifying start to the 2023 NFL season.
Player Spotlights
Justin Herbert (QB)
20-to-1 to win NFL MVP at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over/Under 4450.5 Passing Yards
Justin Herbert enters the 2023 season with a compelling narrative of resilience and untapped potential. Last year, he navigated through an "Offense 202" scheme under Joe Lombardi, which was more conservative than explosive. Despite these constraints, Herbert amassed an eye-catching 4,739 passing yards. Following this performance Vegas has assigned Herbert with the second-highest passing projection, only behind Patrick Mahomes who has a passing yardage Over/Under of 4800 yards.
In a significant shift, the Chargers have parted ways with Joe Lombardi and welcomed former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore to take the reins of the offense. While the core receiving group remains largely unchanged, this coaching move signals a potential paradigm shift in the team's offensive strategy. Veteran Keenan Allen continues as Herbert's go-to target, and Mike Williams re-signed for a hefty sum, offers big-play and contested catch opportunities. The continued integration of TE Gerald Everett and the continued development of young talent like Josh Palmer provide Herbert with a diversified set of weapons.
With Kellen Moore's arrival, the 2023 season presents a fresh landscape for Herbert to further elevate his game. Known for a more dynamic and aggressive offensive scheme, Moore could be the catalyst that unlocks Herbert's full big-play potential. This change comes at an opportune time, allowing Herbert to build on his impressive passing yards from last year. Keep a vigilant eye on the Chargers' offensive adjustments under Moore; they could be the pivotal factor in Herbert not just meeting but exceeding his high statistical projections and solidifying his MVP candidacy.
Austin Ekeler (RB)
Over/Under 775.5 Rushing Yards
Over/Under 575.5 Receiving Yards
Austin Ekeler embarks on the 2023 season with some newfound financial motivation. Initially unhappy with his contract, Ekeler agreed this summer to stay in L.A. thanks to added incentives in his deal. Ekeler's Over/Under for rushing yards is set at a modest 775.5. To give this number context, Ekeler ran for 911 and 915 yards in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, respectively, missing just a single game due to injury during that stretch.
But Ekeler isn't just a running threat; he's a dual-purpose back. His Over/Under for receiving yards is 575.5. Again, for perspective, he notched up 647 and 722 receiving yards in the last two seasons and may be expected to exceed this number again should he both stay healthy and maintain his current status as the Chargers' lead option out of the backfield.
Ekeler's incentives include bonuses for total yards and touchdowns, which could fuel his performance. Despite a rocky offseason, he remains a focal point of the Chargers' offensive game plan. If Ekeler can capitalize on his new contract terms, he might just exceed his Over/Under, offering value for savvy sports bettors.
Keenan Allen (WR)
Over/Under 875.5 Receiving Yards
Keenan Allen, now 31 years old, is a consistently productive but aging asset for the Chargers. His Over/Under for the season is set at 875.5 receiving yards.
Last year, Allen was limited to only 10 games played due to injury and amassed only 752 receiving yards, falling under his yardage prop. However, from 2017 to 2021, Allen had surpassed this Over/Under figure each season, averaging 1,183 receiving yards per year over that span. His track record suggests that if he stays healthy, there's a strong chance he could outperform the set line, providing value for informed sports bettors.
Allen's ability to meet or exceed this mark might also be influenced by factors like Herbert's health as well as potential changes to the offensive scheme and the emergence of young wideouts such as third year wideout, Josh Palmer.
The Chargers' chances in the upcoming season seem tightly connected to the performances of these key players. Herbert's ceiling appears to be partially capped by his scheme and receiving options. Ekeler, revitalized by a new contract, is set to be a pivotal part of the Chargers' offense. Allen, while a veteran, still has the potential to produce solid numbers. For those in the sports betting community, keeping tabs on these players and the team's offensive adjustments could provide valuable insights into how to bet effectively.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Los Angeles Chargers, a team seemingly perpetually on the cusp of greatness, have made calculated moves this offseason to elevate their status in the AFC. Rather than make a splash in free agency, they've turned their focus inward, making strategic draft choices and one key coaching change that could well define their season.
The Chargers’ most significant move of the offseason was the hiring of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, previously of the Dallas Cowboys. This wasn't merely a staff reshuffling but a shift in the franchise's offensive philosophy. Moore is known for his dynamic and aggressive play-calling, and he's anticipated to add even more flair to the Chargers' already potent offense. Justin Herbert, who threw for nearly 4,800 yards last season, and other key players like Keenan Allen, have reportedly found a renewed energy in training camp since Moore's arrival.
This transition to Moore as the offensive maestro is reflected in the team's other offseason moves. In the draft, the Chargers picked up Quentin Johnston, a wide receiver from TCU known for his remarkable yards-after-catch stats, filling an immediate need and adding a spark of youth and athleticism to their offense. On the defensive side of the ball, they drafted edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu and linebacker Daiyan Henley, both of whom could potentially make immediate impacts given their college performances.
Their free agency activity was subdued but calculated. The loss of key players like Drue Tranquill and Kyle Van Noy was cushioned by the acquisition of veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks, signaling a careful approach to filling gaps rather than a complete overhaul.
One subplot to follow is the linebacker position battle, where rookie Daiyan Henley could give Kenneth Murray a run for his money, particularly considering Murray's recent struggles against the run.
So, while the Chargers haven't rolled the dice with high-risk acquisitions, their offseason strategy appears laser-focused on optimizing their existing strengths and addressing their weaknesses. All signs point to a squad that, under Moore's offensive tutelage, aims to be not just relevant but a genuine contender in the AFC. The real test, of course, will be how these carefully arranged pieces come together on the gridiron this upcoming season.
Numbers That Matter – A Power Ratings Perspective
In Brandon Staley's second year as head coach, the LA Chargers showed a complex picture when it comes to advanced metrics and power ratings. Unlike many other teams we've analyzed, where various metrics generally agree on a team's offensive and defensive capabilities, the Chargers presented a more polarized view.
Starting with the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a metric that evaluates a team's efficiency by comparing its performance to league average, the Chargers placed 18th overall. Delving into specifics, their Offensive DVOA ranked 19th, and their Defensive DVOA stood at 16th. Essentially, DVOA considers the Chargers as a nearly average team on both sides of the ball.
However, analytics expert Kevin Cole paints a somewhat contrasting narrative. According to his calculations, the Chargers were the 11th best overall team, being +0.5 points better than an average NFL team. Cole had their offense in the top 10, attributing a value of +1.75 points. Conversely, their defense lagged behind considerably, ranked 25th and subtracting -0.66 points of value.
Another analytics model, NFELO, which employs rigorous EPA-based algorithms, echoed Cole's sentiment rather than DVOA's balanced view. NFELO ranked the Chargers as the 11th best team, at +0.8 points better than the league average.
These varying perspectives underscore an essential aspect of football analytics: different metrics can sometimes tell different stories. For the Chargers, the divergence between DVOA's assessment and that of Kevin Cole and NFELO implies an intriguing combination of strengths and weaknesses that defy simple categorization. While DVOA sees them as an average squad across the board, other advanced metrics suggest they have an offense capable of contending but a defense that needs attention.
The underlying metrics from last year highlight a Chargers team with an offense that has the potential to be a force in the league but a defense that poses some concerns. The mixed analytical feedback serves as a key point of interest, setting up the Chargers as one of the more enigmatic teams to watch in the upcoming season.
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