Welcome back to our Pregame.com 'NFL Team Preview - Betting Predictions' series. As we turn our focus to the sunny coast of Florida, let's dive deep into the unpredictable journey of the Miami Dolphins in 2023. The Dolphins' narrative has been nothing short of a roller coaster, and it's time we put our gears in motion to decipher what this season might hold for the teal and orange.
Setting the Stage
The Dolphins' 2022 season unfurled like a high-stakes No-limit Texas Hold’em poker game–incredible swings. Miami had three consecutive wins to start the year, including a home-thriller over the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. Three consecutive losses followed, beginning with a Thursday Night Football game that saw Tua knocked out of a game for the first time in the season. Next the Dolphins reeled off a stunning five-game winning streak, as Tua rallied back; only to mirror that by falling into a nerve-racking five-game losing spell. It all culminated in a thrilling Week 18 victory led by third-string QB Skylar Thompson, earning them a trip to the playoffs. With Thompson still under center, the Dolphins put up a gritty performance against the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs. Despite the Bills being favored by 13.5 points, the Dolphins demonstrated their resilience, keeping the match tight till the final quarter, only to fall short in a 34-31 loss.
The Dolphins had previously lost by an identical three points in their Week 16 game at Buffalo. Notably, from a sports bettor’s perspective they beat expectations and covered each game. Nonetheless, the losses underscore the fact Josh Allen has now won 8 of 10 games SU vs. the Dolphins in his career and continues to prove the biggest obstacle between Miami and the next stage of NFL contention.
All told, including the playoffs, the Dolphins 2022 season won only one of their last seven games straight up (albeit with four covers missed in over that stretch). The Dolphins’ team strength and vitality seemed inexorably linked to that of their starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa throughout the duration of last season. Like the Dolphins, Tua started out the gate red hot, leading the league in EPA per play through Week 12 in helping Miami reach an 8-3 record. However, plagued by multiple concussions throughout the season, Tagovailoa's repeated absences from the field posed a significant hurdle for Miami's forward momentum. His injury-ridden season, coupled with strategic defensive adjustments by rival teams, resulted in a decline in his performance as the season progressed, in addition to the games he missed. Like their Quarterback, Miami wobbled.
Tagovailoa and the team, however, have sought to take these setbacks in stride. Opting not to retire despite calls from the outside world for him to do so, the former Alabama standout took an unconventional approach to mitigate the risk of future injuries heading into the 2023 season. Picking up jiu-jitsu, Tua hoped to learn how to fall correctly and protect his head during tackles. This commitment to enhancing his physical resilience and ensuring his continued presence on the field was a statement of his dedication to the team and the sport.
The off-season brought about significant changes to the Dolphins roster and coaching staff. The team traded for two seasoned veterans, acquiring DE Bradley Chubb from the Broncos and CB Jalen Ramsey from the Rams. These additions, combined with free agent LB David Long Jr., have the potential to drastically transform the Dolphins' defense under new coordinator Vic Fangio, one of the best defensive play-callers in league history. Fangio is expected to orchestrate a harmonious blend of experienced veterans and young talents like Christian Wilkins, Jaelan Phillips, and Jevon Holland to elevate the Dolphins' defense to new heights.
Offensively, apart from losing TE Mike Gesicki to divisional rival New England, and WR Trent Sherfield to another divisional rival in Buffalo, the Dolphins managed to retain their major contributors. They re-signed RB Raheem Mostert and RB Jeff Wilson on economical deals, bolstering the team's backfield. Expect rookie third-rounder RB Devon Achane to make waves and possibly top the Dolphins' RB depth chart by the end of the season. The Dolphins also signed Mike White as a backup QB, adding depth to the position, considering Tagovailoa's injury history.
Pregame.com's RJ Bell and AJ Hoffman engage in a passionate 'crossfire' debate over the Miami Dolphins win total.
In their pursuit of more than a playoff berth but serious Super Bowl contention, the Dolphins have adopted an 'all-in' strategy for the 2023 season. Led by GM Chris Grier and VP Brandon Shore, the team has structured the salary cap to craft a roster prioritizing immediate success. Rising costs, like Tagovailoa's $23.1 million in 2024, could put them $4.7 million over the cap next year already. This commitment to winning now may compromise future sustainability, with only a few players contracted through 2026. The Dolphins hope to balance competitiveness with fiscal responsibility as they navigate these challenges. The 2023 season is a pivotal moment.
Miami is neck-and-neck with the Baltimore Ravens as around 8th or 9th-best Super Bowl Favorites entering 2023. To put that in context, Miami has not finished in the top-8 in the playoffs – i.e., the NFL Divisional Round – since the year 2000 with Jay Fielder as their Quarterback (made-up person) and Dave Wannstedt as their head coach (frequent Chicago Bears radio guest). Now with Mike McDaniel at the helm as head coach, and a revamped defense under Fangio, the Dolphins' chances to secure a playoff spot in the fiercely competitive AFC East look promising.
Stay tuned as we further break down the Dolphins' prospects in our subsequent sections - The Betting Landscape, Week 1 Showdown, Player Spotlights, Offseason Chess Moves, & Numbers That Matter – a Power Ratings perspective.
The Betting Landscape
The 2023 betting landscape for the Miami Dolphins suggests a rising tide of optimism surrounding the team. With the 9th best Super Bowl odds, the Dolphins are considered significant contenders in the upcoming season, sitting at 25/1 according to Pregame.com consensus odds as of June 30th, 2023. This is a marked improvement from the previous season when the Dolphins entered with 40/1 odds, ranking as the 17th favorite. In fact, the Dolphins have not had Super Bowl odds this promising entering a season since 2015 when they entered with 20/1 odds.
TOP 10 Super Bowl Favorites (Pregame.com consensus odds, as of June 30th, 2023)
KC Chiefs: +600
PHI Eagles: +750
BUF Bills: +850
CIN Bengals: +950
SF 49ers: +950
NY Jets: 15 to 1
DAL Cowboys: 15 to 1
BAL Ravens: 21 to 1
MIA Dolphins: 25 to 1
DET Lions: 26 to 1
AFC East competition remains tough, with the Dolphins' divisional odds placing them third at +290. The Buffalo Bills are leading the pack with +125, while the New York Jets and new QB Aaron Rodgers are positioned in second place with +250. The New England Patriots lag behind at +750. The landscape of the AFC East has become more competitive compared to previous years, and the Dolphins' last divisional title dating back to 2008 underscores this challenge.
AFC East Odds (as of June 30th, 2023)
BUF Bills: +125
NY Jets: +250
MIA Dolphins: +290
NE Patriots: +750
With respect to regular season performance, the Dolphins are projected to win Over/Under 9.5 games, placing them 12th on the list of highest win totals. This indicates that, despite the difficult schedule that all AFC East teams are set to face in 2023, the Vegas market acknowledges the Dolphins' resilience and potential to improve their overall standing.
As with the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots, the market ranks the Dolphins higher on the list of Super Bowl Favorites than on the list of teams with the highest Season-long Win Totals. This disparity could be interpreted as stemming from the incredibly difficult schedule that all AFC East teams face in 2023, with the Dolphins being no exception.
In terms of playoff prospects, the market offers a balanced view of the Dolphins' chances. On the one hand, the Dolphins seem to be an improved version of a team that ended last season power-rated as a clear top-12 team. On the other hand, the Dolphins are facing a gauntlet of schedule and must hope they can keep their quarterback healthy more consistently. The odds for both "Yes" and "No" options on the 'Will the Dolphins Make the Playoffs?' betting markets are priced evenly at -110, implying a 50% chance for either outcome.
In summary, the 2023 betting landscape reveals the Miami Dolphins as ascending contenders with more promising Super Bowl odds than in previous seasons. However, the team will need to navigate the fiercely contested AFC East and a challenging overall schedule to realize its potential. The journey to the top will require strategic plays and consistent performance, but if the odds are any indication, the Dolphins are set to make waves in the 2023 season.
Week 1 Showdown
The Miami Dolphins kick off the 2023 NFL season with an electrifying matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, September 10th, at the state-of-the-art SoFi Stadium. This high-stakes season opener sees two talented rosters clash, with both teams eyeing a crucial in-conference victory that could significantly impact their chances for securing one of the three AFC Wildcard spots
The Dolphins find themselves cast as 2.5-point underdogs or +115 on the moneyline, with the Vegas market projecting them to have around a 45% chance of pulling the Week 1 upset.
Intriguingly, this game is a repeat of last season's Week 12 face-off, where the Dolphins, who began as PK'em in the opening line, saw a surge in backing that shifted the odds to Dolphins -3 by the close. However, despite their favorite status due largely to the Chargers dealing with key injuries, the Dolphins lost that game 23-17, marking their second loss in a streak of five consecutive defeats.
This less-than-ideal performance left a significant imprint on the betting market's perception of the Dolphins. This shift is evident in the current odds, with the Dolphins now entering as 2.5-point underdogs against the Chargers. This clearly showcases a market correction, factoring in the Dolphins' end-of-season slump as well as their previous matchup.
Both teams enter the season with a Vegas Win Total of around Over/Under 9.5 Wins. It's noteworthy that the Dolphins have made substantial improvements during the offseason, with acquisitions such as cornerback Jalen Ramsey and Bradley Chubb significantly bolstering their lineup. One could argue that due to these offseason improvements, the market should be even more optimistic toward the Dolphins in this matchup than it was when the Dolphins closed as three-point road favorites in last year’s primetime showdown. Surprisingly, the market is significantly more bearish in Miami than it was in December, as can be seen in the line adjustment from their previous match-up.
Moreover, the home-field advantage that the Chargers ostensibly enjoy may be tempered by their historical home track record in Los Angeles, potentially offering the Dolphins an opportunity to capitalize.
With both teams vying to kickstart their season with a statement victory, this Week 1 showdown promises to be a thrilling spectacle that could very well set the pace for the rest of their campaigns. The Dolphins will certainly look to leverage this opportunity to reassert their credentials and demonstrate their readiness to surpass expectations. The stage is set for a memorable face-off to commence the 2023 NFL season.
Player Spotlights
Tua Tagovailoa (QB)
Over/Under 3950.5 Passing Yards
As Tua Tagovailoa enters his third season as the Miami Dolphins' starting quarterback, his health will be the prime concern. Tua had a standout average of 273 passing yards per game in 2022, which would put him on a 4600-yard pace over a 17-game season. However, he ended up with only 3548 passing yards due to injuries that kept him out of four games (and the playoffs). If Tua can stay healthy throughout the 2023 regular season, exceeding the Over/Under of 3950.5 passing yards is within his capabilities. His performance in the upcoming season is crucial to the Dolphins' offensive output and their aspirations for the year.
Raheem Mostert (RB)
[No Prop Listed]
There is intrigue around which former 49ers running back, Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson, will become the Dolphins' lead back this summer. Mostert's injury history and age are concerns, but his speed and explosive playmaking ability can't be ignored. With De'Von Achane, the fastest running back in his class, added to the mix, the Dolphins have a potentially dynamic backfield. Keep an eye on the Dolphins' training camp to see who emerges as the primary ball carrier, as it will have a significant impact on the team ground game this season, as well as each player’s fantasy and prop betting prospects.
Tyreek Hill (WR)
[No Prop Listed]
Tyreek Hill, one of the Dolphins' star wide receivers, faces potential legal and disciplinary issues stemming from an alleged assault incident. The NFL and the Dolphins are currently investigating the allegations, and while no charges have been officially filed yet, Hill could face a suspension under the NFL's personal conduct policy. Precedents exist where players have faced suspensions even without criminal charges, and Hill's previous brushes with the law could factor into any decision. This situation is worth monitoring closely as any disciplinary action against Hill would have a significant impact on the Dolphins' offensive game plan and their overall performance in the upcoming season.
Offseason Moves
The Miami Dolphins have made some impactful moves this offseason in an effort to strengthen the team for the 2023 season. The franchise has been busy, undertaking a total of 34 transactions since the start of March, including re-signing key free agents, onboarding new ones, and making an eye-catching trade.
Arguably the most significant shift has been off the field with the hiring of Vic Fangio as the new Defensive Coordinator. Fangio, who spent the previous year as a consultant for the Philadelphia Eagles and was the head coach for the Denver Broncos for three seasons before that, is regarded as a mastermind when it comes to defense. His approach to strategy and player development could prove to be a game-changer for the Dolphins, strengthening an already robust defensive unit.
In terms of player transactions, the biggest move was undoubtedly the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the LA Rams. This transaction is viewed as a game-changer for the Dolphins' defense, pairing Ramsey, a Super Bowl winner, with Xavien Howard to form an imposing cornerback duo.
Offensively, the Dolphins have focused on keeping the core of their effective running game intact. They re-signed running back Raheem Mostert, who had a strong performance in 2022. Complementing Mostert, they also re-signed Jeff Wilson Jr. to continue their efforts to solidify the run game.
Additionally, they've brought in linebacker David Long Jr., a high-end coverage player whose recent injuries raise some concerns but could potentially pay off big if he stays healthy. His signing aims to bolster a linebacker unit in need of improvement in coverage.
Significant too was the decision to retain outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, a player who consistently impacts games despite limited snaps. His return is expected to maintain the team's defensive momentum.
In the 2023 draft, the Dolphins took cornerback Cam Smith in the second round. Smith, a promising addition from South Carolina, will learn and hopefully flourish under the mentorship of Howard and Ramsey. As previously mentioned, the Dolphins also took RB Devon Achane out of Texas A&M in the third round.
Overall, the Dolphins have made significant moves this offseason aimed at maintaining and enhancing their competitive edge. Their hiring of Fangio and strategic player acquisitions and retentions suggest the 2023 season could witness a bolstered Dolphins' performance on both sides of the ball. The strategic nature of these decisions shows a franchise committed to improvement and competition, all promising signs for Dolphins fans and bettors alike.
Numbers That Matter – A Power Ratings Perspective
The Miami Dolphins, who again entered the season expected to be a below-average team with only the 17th-best odds to win Super Bowl, wrapped up the season with impressive marks in power rankings and advanced metrics. Under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins transitioned from also-rans to a team universally recognized as top-12. This leap in performance is a testament to their strengths and an exciting indicator for what's on the horizon for the Dolphins heading into the 2023 season.
The Dolphins secured the 9th spot in the Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, which evaluates a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average. This metric indicates that the Dolphins' performance was significantly better than many other teams in the league, reflecting their ability to maintain consistently high levels of play.
However, when looking at the Weighted DVOA, which gives more importance to recent games, the Dolphins slipped to 15th. This decline aligns with their disappointing finish to the season, where they only managed to secure victory in one of their last seven games. Despite this, their overall season, including the playoffs, presented a bright spot with the Dolphins having the 8th-best offensive DVOA and the 14th-best defensive DVOA, showcasing a balanced and well-rounded team performance.
When turning our attention to the NFELO Power Ratings, which account for injuries, particularly to quarterbacks, the Dolphins were placed significantly lower, ranking 23rd in their final ratings. This downgrade was largely due to injuries to starting QB Tua Tagovailoa and backup Teddy Bridgewater, which forced Skylar Thompson into the starting position for the Dolphins' last two games. When we remove this "QB adjustment," from their rating, we observe the Dolphins would have been rated as the 7th best team according to NFELO, only trailing the likes of powerhouses such as the Eagles, Bengals, 49ers, Chiefs, Bills, and Cowboys.
Kevin Cole's final Power Ratings pegged the Dolphins as the 9th-best NFL team, assigning them the value of being +1.78 points better than an average team. His metrics also presented a balanced view of the Dolphins, rating them as the 12th best on offense and the 11th best on defense.
In conclusion, despite their end-of-season stumble, the Dolphins demonstrated their ability to compete with the best in the league. These power ratings suggest that, with key improvements and greater consistency, they are a team that should not be underestimated as we head into the 2023 season.
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NFL Team Preview Series:
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NFC North
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NFC South
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