Setting the Stage
The Philadelphia Eagles soared to dizzying heights last season, finishing with an impressive 14-3 record and narrowly missing out on Super Bowl glory against the Kansas City Chiefs. Guided by Jalen Hurts, the Eagles are raring to repeat their flight, this time with the intent to clutch the Lombardi Trophy tightly in their talons. The narrative ahead of the Eagles' 2023 NFL season is a riveting mix of high expectations, major changes, and an unwavering resolve to prove themselves once again.
The heart of the Eagles' expectations for 2023 rests squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Jalen Hurts. After signing a five-year, $255 million contract extension, Hurts now holds the mantle of the highest annual salary in NFL history. It's a staggering investment for a quarterback, underscoring the high hopes the Eagles have for their offensive leader.
Despite the staggering numbers, Hurts' deal is celebrated as team-friendly, reflecting his preference for team victories over personal financial guarantees. Hurts will earn a base salary of just $1,010,000 in 2023, contributing to a modest cap hit of $6,154,286. This maneuver allows the Eagles to retain some financial flexibility heading into the new season, a strategic move that underscores their dedication to team success over individual accolades.
The Eagles' journey in 2022 was an absolute whirlwind. They made an aggressive assault on the league, ranking third in offensive yards and points produced, and claimed the title for most sacks and the fewest passing yards allowed. However, these impressive stats weren't enough to fend off the critics. Doubts around the legitimacy of their playoff run were sparked by the perceived weakness of their competition and injuries to key players. As they enter the new season, the Eagles are resolved to bury these doubts by ensuring an even stronger performance.
The Eagles' flight path to Super Bowl 58 hasn't been without turbulence. Key personnel changes have seen both primary coordinators leave for head coaching roles elsewhere. These departures, along with the loss of defensive stalwart Javon Hargrave, present a significant challenge. Despite these changes, the Eagles have managed to bolster their defense, signing Terrell Edmunds, Justin Evans, and Greedy Williams, and drafting Georgia Bulldog defenders Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith. On offense, they've added powerful running back Rashaad Penny and traded for the elusive D'Andre Swift, setting the stage for a potent backfield combo.
Despite these significant changes, the Vegas market has shown faith in the Eagles, raising the team's Win Total by 1/2 Win (from O/U 11 to O/U 11.5) in the offseason. The Eagles have proven that they are not a team to rest on their laurels. They've responded to the Super Bowl loss with tenacity and a calculated approach to the off-season, making strategic moves to give themselves the best possible chance of success in 2023.
The NFC East is poised to be a challenging gauntlet, with the Cowboys and Giants both looking improved. Notably, no team in the NFC East has won consecutive division titles since Andy Reid’s Eagles did in 2004. Outside their division, facing off against the formidable AFC East and a Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs in November adds to the schedule's toughness. Vegas has installed the Eagles as 3-point underdogs to the Chiefs when Philly visits Arrowhead in Week 11 – far cry from the Vegas expectation ahead of the Super Bowl, where the Eagles were 1.5-point favorites over the Chiefs on a neutral site. Both teams will be coming off their Bye Week.
Steve Fezzik discusses his betting prediction for the Eagles' upcoming season win total with RJ Bell, AJ Hoffman & Scott Seidenberg.
Betting Landscape
Vegas has installed the Eagles as clear second favorites to win it all at +725 odds, only behind the Chiefs (+625). This contrasts sharply with their position at the beginning of last season, when they were seen as the 12th most likely team to win the Super Bowl at 22/1. This change in outlook signifies the impact of their near miss last season, their aggressive offseason strategy, and the anticipated performance of their key players.
TOP 5 Super Bowl Favorites (Pregame.com Consensus Odds as of June 25th, 2023)
KC Chiefs: +625
PHI Eagles: +725
BUF Bills: +850
CIN Bengals: +950
SF 49ers: +950
Division-wise, the Eagles are looking to defy history and become the first NFC East champions to repeat in nearly two decades. Vegas places them as favorites to win the division at -120, ahead of the Dallas Cowboys at +175. Last year, the Eagles opened with odds as high as +350 to win the division but following a surge of bets and the acquisition of WR AJ Brown, they started the season as co-favorites along with the Cowboys at +140.
Taking a closer look at the rest of the NFC East this season, the New York Giants are a distant third in the odds at +700, followed by the Washington Commanders at 12/1. It's evident that the division is perceived to be a two-horse race between the Eagles and Cowboys, with the Giants and Commanders considered outsiders.
Like the market did during the previous offseason, Vegas has shown faith in the Eagles this year, raising their win total from Over/Under 11 in March to now Over/Under 11.5 Wins, reflecting a favorable view of the team's prospects in 2023. Notably, the market has shown significant backing for the OVER on this win total, signaling strong confidence in the team's ability to at least match their impressive performance from the previous season.
Top 5 Highest NFL Win Totals:
KC Chiefs: O/U 11.5 Wins (Over -135)
PHI Eagles: O/U 11.5 Wins
CIN Bengals: O/U 11.5 Wins (Under -130)
BUF Bills: O/U 10.5 Wins (Over -140)
SF 49ers: O/U 11 Wins (Under -140)
The 2023 betting landscape for the Philadelphia Eagles presents a dynamic situation. The team is placed as a serious contender for the Super Bowl, with significant betting support. However, a more competitive NFC East division this year suggests the Eagles may have to fight harder for their divisional title. Despite these challenges, the team's key offseason acquisitions and the steady rise in their win total indicate a season full of potential for the Eagles.
Week 1 Showdown
The NFL 2023 season begins with a clash of two titans from the past two decades as the Philadelphia Eagles travel to face the New England Patriots at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 11th. Both teams are stepping into a new era and are keen to kickstart the season on a high note.
Opening odds favored the Eagles by -4.5, however, the line has been adjusted to Eagles -5 at most sportsbooks, mirroring the offseason optimism the market has shown the Eagles.
Despite their Super Bowl loss last season, the Eagles remain a formidable force. However, historically Week 1 has not been kind to those in Philadelphia’s position. Super Bowl runners-up have a record of just 8-14 SU and 4-18 ATS in Week 1 since 2000. Nevertheless, the Eagles have defied expectations before and will aim to do so again.
The total points market shows a figure of 46 for the game. This aligns almost exactly with the Eagles' average total from last season of 45.9. For the Patriots, this total is the highest since Week 5 of last season, and may represent renewed optimism around their offense, particularly with the return of Offensive Coordinator Bill O'Brien. His presence promises a more dynamic offensive strategy, and the Patriots will hope to evade the pitfalls that marred Mac Jones' sophomore year.
As the Patriots plan to honor retired legend Tom Brady prior to Kickoff, the demand for tickets has surged, making this game the most expensive ticket of the 2023 season on the secondary ticket markets. This not only speaks volumes about the reputation of the teams but also the expectation for a competitive showdown.
Both the Eagles and the Patriots are eager to make a statement in Week 1. While the Eagles look to rebound from their Super Bowl loss, the Patriots aim to show that they can rise once more in the post-Brady era. All eyes will be on this Week 1 showdown as the NFL season gets underway, marking a promising start to the 2023 NFL season.
Player Spotlights
Jalen Hurts (QB)
Over/Under 3700.5 Passing Yards
Over/Under 700.5 Rushing Yards
The Philadelphia Eagles' QB, Jalen Hurts, starts the 2023 season with much fanfare and heightened expectations. Despite missing two games last season, Hurts recorded 3,701 passing yards, just nudging past this year's over/under line of 3700.5 yards. This suggests another high-performance season is expected from the talented QB, albeit the Vegas market may be anticipating a potential injury that causes him to miss a game or two.
Hurts is not just a force to be reckoned with when it comes to passing; he's also a formidable rusher. His rushing yards prop is set at 700.5, the second highest for QBs, trailing only Lamar Jackson's Over/Under of 725.5. After losing backup Gardner Minshew, the Eagles will rely on Marcus Mariota in case of an injury to Hurts. Considering Hurts' robust stats and impactful presence, both his passing and rushing Over/Unders are attainable, should he remain healthy.
D'Andre Swift (RB)
Over/Under 580.5 Rushing Yards
The Over/Under for D'Andre Swift's rushing yards for the upcoming season is set at 580.5, following his transfer from the Detroit Lions to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for a future fourth-round draft pick. Swift, despite his recurrent injury issues, has demonstrated his capability as a potent weapon in the past. Although Swift has had a commendable career with the Lions, he failed to meet the 100-attempt qualification standard in 2022 due to missing time owing to health concerns. Despite his history of injuries, Swift was among the six backs who could have surpassed Miles Sanders' rushing DVOA rate in 2022 had he been able to complete one more carry.
Swift's move to the Eagles comes as the team looks to bolster an already powerful ground game, which set an NFL record in the 2022 season with an impressive total of 39 rushing touchdowns, including the postseason. This surpassed the previous all-time record of 38, held by the 1924 Frankford Yellow Jackets. The Eagles' offensive strategy starkly contrasts with the passing-heavy tactics of teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, relying instead on a versatile rushing attack to dismantle opposing defenses.
While the Eagles traded for Swift, it's noteworthy that they didn't make the move out of desperation. In an episode of Kevin Cole's Unexpected Points podcast, analyst Davis Mattek speculated that the Eagles' acquisition of Swift was not born out of necessity. They are equipped with a deep, veteran backfield, featuring Rashaad Penny, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell, who were key to their record-breaking run last season. This strategic depth means Swift’s potential unavailability due to injuries or off-field issues wouldn’t be catastrophic.
Swift's unique skill set as a dual-threat, particularly as an elite receiving back, makes him a valuable addition to the Eagles' offensive game plan, adding an extra dimension that Sanders lacked in recent seasons. If Swift can stay healthy and adjust to the Eagles' scheme, he could easily surpass his Over/Under mark and contribute significantly to the team's offensive output.
A.J. Brown (WR)
Over/Under 1050.5 Receiving Yards
A.J. Brown, having enjoyed a stellar first season with the Eagles, is expected to continue his dominance on the receiving front. He managed a whopping 1,496 yards in 17 games last season, making this year's Over/Under of 1050.5 seem quite achievable. Brown's career average of 1122.7 receiving yards per season gives him a strong chance of surpassing his mark this season, barring any unforeseen circumstances. Brown has gone Over this number in 3 out of 4 seasons in his NFL career, only failing to do so in 2021 due to an injury that caused him to miss three games.
Overall, the Philadelphia Eagles have strong prospects this season with their player props reflecting the team's faith in their roster. With Jalen Hurts leading the charge, the Eagles are a force to reckon with, boasting a dynamic offense that is expected to light up scoreboards throughout the season.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Philadelphia Eagles, reigning NFC champions, are looking at a transformative offseason, trying to hold onto the key elements of their successful roster while making necessary adjustments to keep their Super Bowl dreams alive.
In the world of NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles made some audacious choices. One of their crucial selections was Jalen Carter from Georgia and Nolan Smith in the first round, showcasing their unambiguous objective to fortify their defensive line. The NFL analyst community, a crowd that isn't easily impressed, was enamored by each of these moves, praising the Eagles for adding 'win now' defensive talent to an already formidable front seven.
Jalen Carter, a defensive lineman from Georgia, was undoubtedly one of the top prospects across all positions in this year's draft. The anticipation was high about where this phenomenal player would end up, and finally, he's taking his talents to Philadelphia. In a strategic move, the Eagles moved up one spot in a trade with the Bears and managed to snag Carter with the No. 9 pick in the NFL Draft.
Carter has an impressive history behind him. As a five-star recruit out of Apopka High School in Florida, Carter emerged as the centerpiece of Georgia's championship-winning defense in the past two seasons. His stats speak volumes about his prowess on the field, having combined to record 15.5 tackles for loss and six sacks across 2021 and 2022. But Carter's significance extends beyond the stat sheet. Standing tall and massive at 6-foot-3, 310 pounds, Carter has been an unyielding bulwark against the run and a disruptive force in the pass rush. Some analysts even believe that he was the best player on a 2021 Georgia defense that had five first-round picks.
However, Carter's journey to the top hasn't been without its trials. His talent could have warranted him being a top-five pick, but he got embroiled in legal trouble after an arrest warrant was issued against him for leaving the scene of a fatal car crash in January. A resolution was reached in mid-March, with Carter pleading no contest. He was granted freedom from jail time but was put under 12 months of probation, ordered to pay a $1,000 fine, and perform 80 hours of community service along with a mandatory driving course.
According to the 2023 NFL Draft grades, the Eagles' decision to move up and grab Jalen Carter at No. 9 is a perfect fit for Philly. Pro Football Focus (PFF) analysis indicates that Carter played 392 snaps in 2022 for Georgia and earned a top-notch 92.3 PFF grade, leading all Power Five interior defenders. He registered a whopping 32 total pressures from 273 pass-rushing snaps. To obtain Carter, the Eagles had to give up just a 2024 fourth-round pick.
Both CBS & PFF assigned the Philadelphia Eagles an A+ for their draft choices.
Turning to Free Agency, perhaps one of the most prominent moves was retaining Jason Kelce. His decision not to retire was a boon for the team, providing stability to the offensive line. With Isaac Seumalo departing in free agency, Kelce's leadership on the field will be crucial for the Eagles, who decided to have 2022 second-round pick Cam Jurgens play right guard.
Brandon Graham, another seasoned player, was brought back on board, continuing to represent the spirit and leadership of the team. His proven performance and willingness to take a hometown discount makes his return a no-brainer. Coupled with the likes of Hasson Reddick and Josh Sweat, Graham's addition solidifies the team's defensive line.
In the cornerback department, the Eagles were able to retain James Bradberry and Darius Slay. Ensuring that both stay at cornerback is a major victory for the team, securing a defensive force that has proved effective against opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers. The signing of Greedy Williams provided necessary depth in this area and a possible long-term investment in talent.
However, the departures of pivotal players, including Javon Hargrave, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and T.J. Edwards, might have created some voids in the team. To cover these, the Eagles brought back Fletcher Cox after losing Hargrave in free agency. Although Cox may not be in his prime, his return adds a much-needed depth to the defensive tackle position.
In all, the Eagles' moves this off-season seem strategic and well-calculated. By retaining key veterans, injecting fresh talent through the draft, and making astute free agency acquisitions, they have maneuvered their way to keep their winning ambitions alive. The new season will reveal whether these off-season moves will translate into on-field success.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Rating Perspective
Following a season marked by strategic excellence, the Philadelphia Eagles have set an impressive power rating footprint. The array of advanced metrics and power ratings gives a detailed perspective of the team's performance on the field.
Let's start with Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a metric used to measure a team's efficiency by comparing its performance to the league average. According to the Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Eagles ranked as the 4th best team during the 2022 NFL Season. This standing includes their playoff performance where they secured the 5th highest post-season DVOA behind teams like the Chiefs, Bengals, 49ers, and surprisingly, the Dallas Cowboys. The metric breaks down further to show that the Eagles offense was ranked 4th in the NFL while their defense was 5th, a clear indicator of balanced strength on both sides of the ball.
Comparatively, the NFL Elo (NFELO), a ranking system based on Expected Points Added (EPA) algorithms, crowned the Eagles as the best team in their power ratings by the end of the 2022 season. As per NFELO's projections, Philadelphia stands an impressive +7.5 points better than an average NFL team.
Another respected analytics expert, Kevin Cole, ranked the Eagles as the 2nd best team in the league in his end-of-year Power Ratings. However, at +4.8 points better than an average team, the Eagles were a distant second to the Chiefs, who stood at +6.2 points. Breaking it down further, Cole assigned +3.7 points of value for the Eagles offense, which was ranked 2nd in the league, and +1.1 points of value for the Eagles defense, which ranked 7th in the NFL.
Finally, according to the Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades, which measure individual player performances on each play, the Eagles clinched the top overall spot for the 2022 Regular Season & Playoffs. Notably, the PFF grades credited the Eagles with the 2nd best offense, only behind the Chiefs, and a league-leading defense.
To sum up, the metrics paint the Philadelphia Eagles as a competitive, well-rounded team excelling in both offensive and defensive prowess. While there's a notable gap between them and the top-ranked Chiefs, the power ratings underline the Eagles' strong standing in the NFL as they gear up for the 2023 season. While there are minor variations across these rankings, they all affirm the Eagles' status as a powerhouse team heading into the 2023 season.
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