Setting the Stage
The Washington Commanders, a team with a storied history including three Super Bowl victories between 1982 and 1991, had seen a shift in their fortunes since Daniel Snyder took the helm as ownership in 1999. Under Snyder's ownership, the team claimed only two playoff wins, with one of those coming in this century. As the 2023 season approaches, with the introduction of new ownership, changes in coaching staff, and an evolving roster, the dynamics surrounding the Commanders are poised for a potentially intriguing year ahead. Even a name change is on the table as the once proud franchise attempts to flip the page. However, whether these changes will alter the team's trajectory remains an open question – Vegas has responded this offseason with significant pessimism at least for the team’s prospects in the 2023 season.
The Commanders downturn extended beyond wins & losses in recent years, with diminishing season ticket sales and overall tempered fan engagement compared to years past. However, the change in ownership and a subsequent shift in the organizational culture might reinvigorate a fanbase once known as one of the most committed and passionate in the country. With Dan Snyder's era now in the rearview mirror and new owner Josh Harris taking the helm, there's a palpable sense of optimism, as recently voiced by team President Jason Wright.
This refreshing wave of positivity has translated into promising ticket sales for the 2023 season. The Commanders' Week 1 game, hosting the Arizona Cardinals, is reportedly trending towards a sellout, a testament to the renewed enthusiasm surrounding the team. Although Arizona Cardinals QB Colt McCoy was a fan favorite in his days in Washington – he is not the reason people are coming to this game. The Commanders reported selling a season’s worth of suites in one week following the official report that Snyder would be selling.
A significant factor behind this renewed excitement is the shake-up in the Commanders' coaching staff. The Commanders bid farewell to their long-time offensive coordinator, Scott Turner, replacing him with former Chiefs' OC, Eric Bieniemy. Known for his innovative offensive strategies and the ability to bring out the best in his players, Bieniemy's arrival in the Commanders camp could be a game-changer. His impact on the Chiefs' offensive performance in Super Bowl 57 was notable, and expectations are high that he can replicate that success in Washington, even without Patrick Mahomes & Andy Reid.
On the player front, the Commanders have seen a significant turnover as well. The team let go of their 2022 starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, and paved the way for second year QB Sam Howell to take over as the starting quarterback, with NFL-veteran Jacoby Brissett waiting on the wings should Howell struggle.
The running back scene also promises an interesting dynamic. With the uncertainty around the return of J.D. McKissic, there's an opportunity for new talent to emerge. Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, both impressive in their respective capacities, will likely have their chance to take the spotlight. This competition could potentially shape the team's running game strategy and the outcomes of the early season games.
On the receiving end, the Commanders' offense appears robust, with key contributors like Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel staying put. The impact of Bieniemy's offensive playstyle on these players, especially in a pass-heavy scheme, will be interesting to watch.
Changes are evident on the offensive line as well. The Commanders made significant changes during the offseason, and it will be intriguing to see how these new combinations hold up in real-game situations.
In a major development off the field, the Commanders could see another name change as early as 2024. New co-owner Earvin "Magic" Johnson has teased the possibility of a rebranding, hinting at a fresh start for the franchise under the new ownership.
As the 2023 season looms, the stage is set for a transformative year for the Washington Commanders. With new leadership at the helm, fresh faces on the field, and a possible name change on the horizon, there's an undeniable sense of anticipation in the air. This is a franchise on the brink of a new era, ready to reclaim its place in the NFL's hierarchy.
Pregame.com's Scott Seidenberg discusses his betting predictions for the Commander's upcoming season with RJ Bell & Steve Fezzik.
The Betting Landscape
The 2023 betting landscape for the Washington Commanders presents a distinctly different picture than last year. Despite the team's middling 8-8-1 record in 2022, the offseason has seen the betting markets express a noticeable downturn in optimism regarding the Commanders' prospects for this year. Let's dissect this in more detail.
In February, the Commanders began the 2023 season with Super Bowl odds of 60/1 according to Pregame.com's consensus from several sportsbooks. Fast forward a few months, and these odds have nearly doubled, reaching a disheartening 105/1 by our consensus. This suggests that the market sees a far less favorable outlook for the team, reflecting the perception of the Commanders' struggles and potential challenges in the upcoming season.
The Commanders' projected win total has experienced a similar slide. In late March, the team's over/under was positioned at a midpoint between 7 and 7.5, reflecting an expectation of continued solid performance from their 2022 campaign. This anticipation held steady until the post-NFL draft period when the over/under was recalibrated to a firm 7, offered at odds of -110. A significant shift happened in May; the betting markets began to lean heavily against Washington. By May 9th, consensus win projections had descended to 6.8, further sliding to 6.6 a month later on June 6th. Today, the odds reflect a cautious perspective, setting the over/under at ~6.3 wins, or in other terms, a win total of over/under 6.5, with the 'Under' option heavily favored at odds of -130. This serves as a clear indication of the market's dwindling confidence in the Commanders' ability to replicate their record from last season.
5 Lowest NFL Win Totals (consensus odds as of July 21st)
t29 LA Rams Over/Under 6.5 (Under -130)
t29 WAS Commanders Over/Under 6.5 (Under -130)
30 HOU Texans Over/Under 6.5 (Under -135)
31 TB Buccaneers Over/Under 6 (Over -130)
32 ARI Cardinals Over/Under 4.5 (Under -120)
Contrasting sharply with last year's off-season, when the Commanders saw a surge of support that knocked their price from +500 to +250 to win the NFC East ahead of Week 1 of the 2022 season, the trend has reversed for the 2023 off-season. Bettors appear increasingly skeptical about the Commanders clinching a fourth division title this century. In March, sportsbooks positioned the Commanders as 10/1 underdogs. However, since then, their odds have gotten longer, with consensus numbers now marking them at 13/1.
NFC East Odds (consensus odds as of July 21st):
PHI Eagles -110
DAL Cowboys +175
NY Giants +750
WAS Commanders 13 to 1
In terms of postseason potential, the Commanders face steep odds. They currently sit at +300 (~23% implied odds) to make the playoffs, while the odds for them to miss the postseason stand at a stark -370 (~77% implied odds). The Commanders last made the playoffs at the end of the 2020 season and have not made consecutive playoff trips since the 1991 & 1992 seasons.
Despite the gloomy predictions, the Commanders have the opportunity to defy expectations. QB Sam Howell & WR Terry McLaurin will be crucial in leading the team's charge, and their recent roster changes could introduce fresh dynamics that disrupt the odds. The betting market, though currently bearish, could shift if the Commanders manage to kick off the season on a high note.
In this unpredictable and ever-evolving betting landscape, the Washington Commanders, while far from favorites, have a chance to prove the skeptics wrong. With the underdog odds stacked against them, it remains to be seen if they can rally and deliver a performance that bettors, fans, and analysts alike didn't see coming.
Week 1 Showdown
The Washington Commanders will kick off their new era under Josh Harris' ownership, on home turf at FedEx Field against the Arizona Cardinals. The NFC duel is slated to take place at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 10th.
The opening betting odds listed the Commanders as the favorites with -6 against the Cardinals with an over/under total of 40 points. Currently, the line remains unchanged, putting the Commanders as favorites at -6 with the total set at 40. This is the lowest total we have in Week 1, which is one and a half points lower than the second-lowest total, indicating a defensive duel is expected.
This season, both teams present unique challenges. The Commanders are still in the process of settling their quarterback situation, with Sam Howell likely protecting his perch as the team’s preferred starter over backup Jacoby Brissett. The Cardinals, on the other hand, will have to manage without their usual starter, Kyler Murray, and will likely start backup Colt McCoy, who has over the last two years posted a 3-3 SU record as a starter in Arizona.
McCoy & the Cardinals be up against the formidable defense of the Commanders, one of the best units in the league, which is expected to provide a tough test for the Cardinals' offense.
Meanwhile, the Commanders will be playing their first game under the new ownership group led by Josh Harris. Given the excitement and renewed optimism surrounding the franchise, they will have the added advantage of the FedEx Field crowd, expected to be particularly electrifying and emotional for this season opener.
Given these dynamics, the Commanders' odds as favorites at -6 appear well placed, considering their formidable defense and the quarterback situation for the Cardinals. But the Cardinals should not be underestimated. They are known to pull off surprising performances in the face of adversity.
The total points line currently stands at 40. This reflects the expectation of a defensive battle given the Commanders' defensive strength and the Cardinals' quarterback challenges. An under bet may seem tempting. However, the Commanders have several offensive weapons that could lead to some unexpected scoring opportunities.
Finally, the moneyline odds for the Commanders stand at -230, indicating a strong probability of a win. However, the +210 odds for the Cardinals suggest that a surprise victory from the Cardinals could yield significant returns for the bold bettors.
Ultimately, this Week 1 showdown between the Commanders and the Cardinals sets the stage for an intriguing spectacle. As the Commanders seek to make a strong start under their new ownership, and the Cardinals look to overcome their quarterback challenges, this game will provide early indications about the trajectory of these two franchises for the 2023 season.
Player Spotlights
Sam Howell (QB)
100/1 to win NFL MVP
[No Passing Yards Over/Under listed]
The Washington Commanders has a new potential leader in second-year quarterback Sam Howell, after he started (and won) his first NFL game in Week 18 of last season. While the fifth-round pick from UNC isn't pegged as the definite starter, there's a strong case for Howell to command the offense this season. Despite not having the same arsenal he did in college, Howell demonstrated adaptability in his final collegiate season, adjusting his style of play to account for a less-stacked offense. In his one NFL start last season, Howell showcased this versatility, contributing both passing and rushing touchdowns. However, with no established over/under for passing yards due to the uncertainty of Howell's starting role, his impact remains speculative. If he secures the starting job in training camp, expect the betting landscape to react accordingly by posting an Over/Under for the player.
Brian Robinson Jr (RB)
Over/Under Rushing Yards: 800.5
The Commanders' backfield is anchored by Brian Robinson Jr, who put up a promising rookie campaign in 2022. Despite being limited to 12 games due to injuries, he fell just short of 800 rushing yards. His demonstrated resilience, particularly in the face of high-stacked boxes, indicates his potential to overcome obstacles on the field. Given his role and volume, Robinson could easily eclipse his over/under of 800.5 yards if he maintains health and the coaching staff capitalizes on his talents. However, the arrival of Eric Bieniemy as the new offensive coordinator introduces an element of uncertainty regarding Robinson's role and the overall rushing strategy.
Terry McLaurin (WR)
Over/Under Receiving Yards: 900.5
Four-year NFL veteran Terry McLaurin remains a beacon of consistency in Washington's receiver corps. Known for his reliability and explosive play, McLaurin has exceeded the 900.5 yard receiving yard line set by Vegas in each of his NFL seasons, boasting an impressive average of 1070 receiving yards per season. However, Vegas' conservative estimate reflects some skepticism about the incoming QB situation and the capacity of Sam Howell to maintain McLaurin's production. If Howell can rise to the challenge, expect McLaurin to outperform his yardage prop. A strong rapport between Howell and McLaurin could be a crucial factor in the Commanders' success this season.
Overall, these player spotlights paint a picture of a team in transition, with the potential for standout performances from key individuals. If the Commanders can capitalize on their young talent and effectively integrate their new additions, the betting landscape could see significant shifts over the course of the 2023 season.
Offseason Chess Moves
In the offseason, the Washington Commanders made strategic moves to bolster both their offense and the quarterback position. Their biggest offseason acquisition was Eric Bieniemy, the former Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator, who they hired as assistant head coach/offensive coordinator. Bieniemy brings with him a wealth of experience and success from his time with the Chiefs, where he played a significant role in their offensive powerhouse that consistently ranked among the NFL's best in multiple categories.
The Bieniemy hiring signifies the Commanders' desire to improve their offensive potency. The team will be looking forward to having Bieniemy's Midas touch influence their offense, particularly given his history of fostering incredible performances from players like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. The Bieniemy move represents an excellent strategic play for the Commanders as they seek to implement a more dynamic and efficient offensive system, and his influence will likely be a major determinant of the team's success in the coming season.
With Bieniemy's offensive mastery in their arsenal, the Commanders also turned their attention to the crucial quarterback position. Fifteen months ago, the Commanders made the surprising decision to draft Sam Howell, a quarterback from North Carolina, in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Howell, once touted as a potential top-10 pick, saw his stock fall in 2021 despite a strong performance in his final collegiate season. The Commanders then doubled down on their quarterback chess moves by signing veteran QB Jacoby Brissett, a calculated move presumably to provide insurance should Howell fail to live up to expectations.
While Howell is relatively untested at the NFL level, he represents a high-risk, high reward play for the Commanders. Howell demonstrated a high level of skill and adaptability in college, particularly in 2021, when he morphed into a significant rushing threat. If he can adapt quickly to the NFL and absorb Bieniemy's offensive teachings, he has the potential to be a diamond in the rough for the Commanders.
As for Brissett, he brings a steady, experienced hand to the QB room. While not a superstar, he's shown the ability to competently steer an NFL offense and could serve as a useful mentor to Howell, providing a solid backup plan should Howell struggle.
Elsewhere on the team, significant changes included DT Daron Payne's contract extension, making him the NFL's second highest-paid defensive tackle. Unfortunately, the Commanders lost their leading tackler over the last four years, Cole Holcomb who took his talents to Pittsburgh.
The offensive line was reinforced with the signings of center Nick Gates and tackle Andrew Wylie. However, the team made the surprising decision to decline Chase Young's fifth-year option, setting him up for free agency next season. These actions illuminate the team's ambition to sustain solid performance in 2023 while concurrently tactical repositioning in the near future.
Additionally, in light of the recent ownership change, there may be room for optimism in a post-Dan Snyder environment. The team saw a significant decline in winning percentage under Snyder's ownership. Per ESPN.com, the Commanders (then Redskins) won 58% of their games from 1974 to 1998. After Snyder took over (from 1999 through 2022) the Commanders won only 43% of their games.
Overall, the Commanders' offseason moves indicate a commitment to strengthening their offense and a willingness to take calculated risks in the process. With a new offensive coordinator and a fresh set of quarterbacks, the upcoming season promises to be an intriguing one for the Commanders.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The Washington Commanders, with a fluctuating 2023 season, are revealed in their diverse forms when analyzed under the lens of advanced metrics and power ratings.
An assessment of the Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a metric that contrasts a team's performance against the league average, indicates the Commanders held the 21st position. While this is far from leading the pack, their standing improves slightly in the Weighted DVOA (which emphasizes recent games more heavily) where they landed the 16th spot. This could imply a team that found some form as the season progressed.
When split into offensive and defensive elements, the picture becomes more distinct. The Commanders found themselves languishing in the 28th position in terms of Offensive DVOA, indicative of their struggles on this side of the ball. However, their Defensive DVOA tells a different story altogether, ranking a remarkable 10th in the league. This shows a Commanders team with significant defensive strength that perhaps didn't fully capitalize on its potential due to offensive struggles.
According to NFL Elo (NFELO), a ranking metric using EPA-based algorithms, the Commanders sat at the 25th position, indicating a performance level nearly equal to an average team. This is a metric that, again, underscores the mixed fortunes of the Commanders' season.
Kevin Cole's Power Ratings, a highly respected measure within the community, ranks the Commanders 23rd overall, with a rating of -1.48 points better than an average team. Here, the disparity between the offensive and defensive strengths of the Commanders becomes even more stark. The Commanders offense ranked a dismal 29th in Cole's assessment, subtracting -2.94 points of value. Conversely, the defense was a standout, ranking 3rd with +1.45 points of value added.
This huge 26-slot differential between the offense and defense is the largest of any side in Cole's power ratings. The only team with a comparable differential was the Detroit Lions, who were the mirror image of the Commanders with a high-ranked offense and a struggling defense. As offense is generally considered more predictive of future success in NFL advanced analytics, the Commanders are projected to face significant challenges in the coming season, whereas the Lions may be on an upward trajectory.
All in all, the advanced metrics depict the Washington Commanders as a team in need of significant offensive improvement to complement a strong defense. The disparities in these metrics paint a picture of a team with potential that's yet to be fully harnessed. The Commanders' future successes may hinge on their ability to address these imbalances and leverage their strong defensive platform.
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From Our Podcast: Check out Pregame.com's Scott Seidenberg's recommended bet for the 2023 Commanders' upcoming season on this clip from "RJ Bell's Dream Preview". Find all of Scott's Pregame picks here.
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