Setting the Stage: Payton Seeks to End Broncos Playoff Drought
Heading into the 2023 NFL season, the Denver Broncos aim to break a seven-year playoff drought and reverse a trend of six consecutive losing seasons. Last season's unsatisfactory 5-12 showing sparked a multitude of changes in the off-season. Chief among them was the acquisition of accomplished head coach Sean Payton. This marked move has met with polarized opinions, given the steep price the Broncos paid to acquire the future Hall of Fame coach: a first-round pick in 2023 and a second-rounder in 2024.
However, the Broncos aren't just betting on new leadership. They're also wagering on a career rejuvenation for nine-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson, who is coming off the worst season of his career. To accomplish this, the team made substantial changes to the roster, particularly on offense, to align with Payton's ground-based offensive schemes.
Injuries have severely impacted the Broncos' wide receiver depth. Tim Patrick is out for the season with a torn Achilles, while KJ Hamler has stepped away due to a heart issue; neither is expected back this year. Jerry Jeudy, who suffered a hamstring injury near the end of training camp, could return early in the season. These setbacks cast a shadow on Denver's costly off-season moves, particularly their retooled offensive line, raising questions about the Broncos' offensive prowess for the coming season.
On the defensive side, the secondary remains a strength, with cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons leading the way. However, the absence of a bonafide edge rusher since Von Miller’s departure remains a noticeable gap in the roster's composition.
New faces like Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph, OLB Frank Clark, and WR Marvin Mims Jr. are expected to play significant roles. Yet, the team's thin depth across positions poses challenges in what is hoped to be a turnaround season.
As the season approaches, the stakes are high for the Broncos. The team has made significant investments in leadership and roster changes, all aimed at breaking their years-long slump. Whether these moves will pay dividends or backfire spectacularly remains a storyline that will unfold as the 2023 season kicks off.
Pregame.com's Dave Essler & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Denver Broncos 2023 season.
The Betting Landscape
The Denver Broncos entered the offseason in a state of flux that's reverberated in the betting markets. At the beginning of the offseason, their Super Bowl odds were already dialed back to 40/1, a steep decline from last year's more optimistic 20/1. The market has further adjusted its expectations, and as per Pregame's consensus odds, Denver's Super Bowl odds are now a sobering 60/1.
The adjustment isn't solely a measure of market pessimism but rather a recalibration based on Russell Wilson's lackluster performance last season, both statistically and in terms of team results. The nine-time Pro Bowler had arguably the worst year of his career, which undoubtedly factored into the oddsmakers' evaluations.
In terms of Win Totals, the sentiment mirrors the broader perspective. Last season, Vegas set the Broncos' expected win total at 10 games. This season, that number has shrunk to less than 8.5, with the under being slightly favored at -120.
Denver Broncos Win Total (consensus odds as of August 31st)
Over 8.5 (100)
Under 8.5 (-120)
Shifting focus to divisional expectations, Denver’s outlook hasn’t been this bleak in years. The Broncos haven't seized the AFC West title since Peyton Manning’s days back in 2015, the year they also won the Super Bowl. And that drought doesn't seem likely to end soon.
AFC West Odds (consensus odds as of August 31st)
KC Chiefs: -175 (~58%)
LA Chargers: +290 (~23%)
DEN Broncos: +575 (~13%)
LV Raiders: 16-to-1 (~5%)
The team’s 15-game losing streak to the Kansas City Chiefs is a dark cloud hanging over their divisional title odds, currently set at +575, or a calculated 13% chance according to Vegas projections. (h/t to Gaming Today's future odds calculator).
When it comes to playoff probabilities, the Broncos are currently listed at +180, translating to a 34% implied chance of making the postseason. Meanwhile, those betting against a Denver playoff appearance can do so at odds of -215, or an implied 66%.
Will the Broncos Make the Playoffs:
Yes: +180 (~34% implied odds)
No: -215 (~66% implied odds)
Under new Head Coach Sean Payton, the team faces an uphill battle. Though Payton has had nine playoff appearances in 15 years as the Saints' head coach, there are questions about his ability to navigate a season successfully without a prime Drew Brees. The Saints did, after all, register three consecutive 7-9 seasons from 2014 to 2016 despite a high-flying offense.
To summarize, the betting landscape for the Denver Broncos is one of caution. Russell Wilson and Sean Payton offer a glimmer of hope, but the betting markets remain skeptical. If you’re bullish on the Broncos, you’ll find plenty of value but know that the current odds suggest a challenging path ahead.
Week 1 Showdown
The Denver Broncos are gearing up to kick off their 2023 NFL season with a classic AFC West showdown against their longtime rivals, the Las Vegas Raiders. Scheduled for 4:25 pm Eastern on Sunday, September 10th, this Week 1 game will take place on Denver's home field and signifies the onset of a season loaded with high hopes for the Broncos.
Opening odds favored the Broncos at -3.5 against the Raiders, with an Over/Under set at 44. The line has seen some adjustment, now leaning towards the Broncos at -4 (O/U 44). There's been variation among bookmakers, offering both -3.5 and -4 lines, but given that 4 isn't a pivotal number in NFL spreads, this shift doesn't dramatically alter betting strategies.
Denver has historically performed well in this spot, winning 17 of their 21 Week 1 home openers since 1989 and boasting an impressive 13-5-3 ATS record. This track record has influenced the Vegas market to give Denver a notable home-field advantage, thus affecting the odds. Worth noting, the final closing spread for Denver's last three Week 1 home games resulted in pushes:
2017: Broncos -3 hosting Chargers, won 24-21 (push)
2018: Broncos -3 hosting Seahawks, won 27-24 (push)
2020: Broncos -2 hosting Titans, won 16-14 (push)
In recent matchups, the Broncos have dominated the Raiders with a six-game winning streak. Their last loss to them was a narrow 16-15 defeat back in 2019. Entering 2023, the Raiders have a revamped roster, featuring new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. With limited prep time after replacing the injured Trey Lance in Week 2 as starting quarterback of the 49ers, Garoppolo had arguably his worst game of the season in Week 3 last season in Denver, losing to the Broncos 11-10 in his only career start vs. the franchise. For his career, Garoppolo has a 70% winning percentage, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson among active quarterbacks with at least 10 starts. (Given no filter, Washington's Sam Howell is currently the all-time leader with a 100% Winning percentage in one career start in the NFL).
On the injury front, the Broncos face a significant blow. Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy is expected to miss several weeks due to a hamstring issue. This news has slightly moved the odds, with most books shifting from DEN -4.5 to DEN -4, and some Nevada books even moving the Broncos to being only a -3.5 favorite. Notably, Jeudy has not been placed on injured reserve, leaving open the possibility for a game-day activation. His likely absence amplifies the role of Courtland Sutton as quarterback Russell Wilson's primary target.
Denver's recent AFC West record has been disappointing, especially their 15-game skid against the Kansas City Chiefs. If newly appointed head coach Sean Payton wants to make an immediate impact, it starts with a strong Week 1 performance against their arch-rivals. Former Broncos Head Coach Mike Shanahan, also an Eastern Illinois alum like Payton, had a 21-7 SU (17-11 ATS) record against the Raiders—further fueling the intensity of this rivalry.
For the Broncos, this Week 1 clash offers more than just a seasonal starting point. It’s an opportunity to build confidence and launch the Sean Payton era on a high note. For the Raiders, it's a chance to overcome skepticism and set the foundation for a possible playoff journey. Given the stakes, this matchup is a highlight of the Week 1 schedule and is sure to draw significant attention.
Player Spotlights
Russell Wilson (QB)
Over/Under 3700.5 Passing Yards
Legacy under the microscope now paired with HOF Play-Caller.
Russell Wilson enters the 2023 season with a chip on his shoulder. His reputation has been questioned, with some analysts doubting his Hall of Fame credentials. Wilson has averaged 235 Passing Yards Per Game over his career, which is exactly what he produced last year in his first year in Denver, which would project to a total of 3,988 passing yards over a 17-game season. The Over/Under of 3700.5 seems conservative and make seek toward uncertainty of how much the team will “Let Russ Cook” given the arrival of Sean Payton and offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi. The lack of established weapons in the receiving corps could be a limiting factor. Wilson's performance this season will not only influence the Broncos' success but could also cement his legacy.
RJ Bell on the “Dream Preview” podcast speculated there may be value betting Under on Russell Wilson’s Passing Yards Prop, considering that the Broncos signed Jarrett Stidham to a two-year $10M contract and may want to see what the younger quarterback has to offer later in the year should the season get away from the Broncos.
Javonte Williams (RB)
[No Rushing Yards Over/Under Listed]
Broncos OC Joe Lombardi suggested Williams may have a lighter workload at the start of the season.
Javonte Williams is expected to be the lead back for the Broncos, but the coaching staff has indicated a possible easing into the season. With no Over/Under listed, the market seems uncertain about Williams' role. His preseason performance has been promising, but the presence of Samaje Perine could eat into his snaps, especially in Week 1 against the Raiders. Williams' ability to secure the lead role and produce consistently will be crucial for the Broncos' ground game.
Courtland Sutton (WR)
1000/1 to Win MVP (At Caesars Sportsbook)
[No Receiving Yards Over/Under Listed]
After training camp, OC Lombardi expressed confidence Broncos can lean on Sutton as #1 option.
Courtland Sutton comes into the season as the Broncos' primary receiving option, especially with Jerry Jeudy sidelined due to injury. Sutton has averaged 53 Yards Per Game over his 5-year career, and the team has expressed renewed confidence in him since he has been thrust in the new number one role. The absence of an Over/Under for receiving yards suggests market uncertainty, likely due to last year's underperformance and the new offensive system, along with questions of how much will change when Jeudy returns. However, Sutton's role is expected to be significant, and a bounce-back season could be on the horizon.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Broncos' season hinges on these key players. Russell Wilson is under the microscope, both for his team's success and his personal legacy. Javonte Williams has the potential to break out but faces workload uncertainties. Courtland Sutton is poised for a significant role, especially in Jeudy's absence. Monitoring these players will be essential for understanding the Broncos' season trajectory and making informed betting decisions.
The Denver Broncos have navigated a busy offseason with the objective of becoming more competitive in the AFC West. While last year's acquisition of Russell Wilson wasn't part of this offseason's activities, his ongoing integration with new head coach Sean Payton is a focal point for the team's broader strategy.
Sean Payton's entrance into the Broncos organization marks a significant shift, as he brings a reputation for strategic acumen. The team hopes that Payton can help elevate Wilson's game, building on what has been described as a solid preseason. The working relationship between Payton and Wilson is still in its formative stages, but it's clear that there is value for both parties in forming a successful partnership.
Perhaps the most noteworthy behind-the-scenes change comes in the form of a defensive coordinator swap. Outgoing DC Ejiro Evero, who guided Denver's defense to a top-5 ranking last season according to the DVOA metric, has been hired in a lateral move to join Frank Reich's staff in Carolina. Evero's Broncos defense was consistently strong, ranking in the top 3 in points allowed per game for most of the season. However, this high performance declined abruptly, particularly evident immediately before the firing of Nathaniel Hackett. The Broncos' 51-14 Christmas day loss to the 4-10 Rams signaled just how far things had deteriorated. Before that downfall, Evero had been one of the promising coordinators of the 2022 season.
Replacing him is Vance Joseph, who was previously the head coach of the Broncos for the 2017 and 208 seasons and most recently served as the defensive coordinator for the Arizona Cardinals. Joseph inherits the best part of the Broncos' team last year. He aims to maintain, if not elevate, that level of performance.
The Broncos were active in free agency, aiming to address specific needs. One key move was bolstering the offensive line, a step the team hopes will offer Wilson more reliable protection. These acquisitions are designed to give Wilson the protection he needs to operate at his peak, a necessity against the high-octane defenses in their division. Powers, in particular, brings elite run-blocking talent, earning an 86.7 run-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus (PFF) last season, which ranked him second among the league's guards. McGlinchey, a consistent performer, has maintained an above-average run-blocking grade throughout his career, according to PFF metrics. The message is clear: Denver is committed to winning the battle at the line of scrimmage sooner rather than later, leaning on veteran leadership.
However, the team wasn’t without losses. Departing safety Justin Simmons and a second-consecutive season-long injury to wide receiver Tim Patrick may strain the depth in their respective positions.
While many of the key player dynamics remain, the team is now led by the Payton-Wilson partnership, which they hope will bring a new level of tactical sophistication. Denver’s recent franchise construction suggests that amid a 7-year sojourn in the wilderness without a playoff berth, the team has prioritized winning now and getting back to the playoffs. As the upcoming season gets underway, the effectiveness of these offseason moves will be put to the test.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
The Denver Broncos faced a season of contrasts in 2022, with a defense that shone brightly amidst an offense that struggled to find its footing. The power ratings from various analytical perspectives provide a detailed insight into the Broncos' performance, highlighting areas of strength and pinpointing the sectors that necessitate improvement as they gear up for the 2023 season.
A notable aspect of the Broncos' 2022 journey was captured by the proprietary Pregame.com metric, "4th Quarter Win Share". This metric, which evaluates the Vegas implied win percentage after each snap in the fourth quarter, paints a nuanced picture of the team's performance as games neared their conclusion. It vividly illustrates the Broncos' inability to clinch victories last season, despite being in a prime position to do so. According to this metric, the Broncos would have been expected to win 2.3 more games than their final tally of only 5 wins over the 17-game schedule, given their average weighted likelihood of winning in fourth quarters. That was the biggest underperformance of any team by this metric. Narrow overtime losses against teams like the Colts, Chargers, and Raiders were just a part of a season marred by frustrating end-of-game management and sloppy late-game performance.
If the team had matched the league average in converting fourth-quarter win probabilities into victories, they would have likely boasted 7 or more wins, instead of the 5 they settled with. This metric is one of several underlying metrics that suggest the Broncos were a team on balance that performed closer to a mid-tier unit rather than languishing near the league's bottom like their record suggested.
A deep dive into the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metrics reveals a defense that stood as a beacon of strength, securing a remarkable 5th place in the rankings. This formidable defensive unit, however, was somewhat overshadowed by an offense that languished in the 29th position, pulling the team's overall DVOA down to 25th. This stark contrast between the offensive and defensive performances forms a critical narrative for the Broncos, emphasizing the pressing need for offensive rejuvenation to complement their defensive prowess.
The NFELO ratings, which employ EPA-based algorithms to gauge team performance, paint a more favorable picture, positioning the Broncos at the 15th spot, a notch above the average team by +1.0 points. This rating hints at a team that harbors the potential to ascend the league rankings, provided they can foster a more balanced performance across both sectors of the game.
Kevin Cole's analysis further delineates the Broncos' performance spectrum, ranking them 24th overall, with a rating of -1.77 points compared to an average team. A closer inspection of this rating unveils a struggling offense that subtracted 2.14 points of value, a statistic that underscores the urgency for offensive revitalization. In contrast, the defense added a modest 0.36 points of value, securing a respectable 14th position, and showcasing a unit that can potentially be the cornerstone of the Broncos' resurgence.
As the Broncos set their sights on the 2023 season, the focus will undoubtedly be on fostering a harmonious blend of offensive innovation and defensive solidity. The power ratings from the 2022 season serve as a roadmap, highlighting the critical areas that require attention and nurturing the existing strengths to forge a team that can be a formidable force in the league. With Sean Payton at the helm to rejuvenate Russell Wilson after a career-worst downturn in 2022, the journey ahead is one of cautious optimism. The Broncos are clearly aiming to move past their previous limitations and establish a new chapter of success, enhancing their individual NFL legacies while returning the franchise to relevancy if not its former glory.
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