Setting the Stage: Navigating the Third Era of Pete Carroll's Tenure in Seattle
As the NFL's 2023 season looms, it's instructive to examine Pete Carroll's 13-year stretch with the Seattle Seahawks through the lens of three distinct eras. The first era, prior to Russell Wilson's arrival, spanned 2010 to 2011. This period was a building phase for Carroll's Seahawks, culminating in a 14-18 regular season record and just one playoff berth.
The second era began in 2012 with the entrance of Russell Wilson and extended through 2021. It was an era of extraordinary success, marked by a 105-55-1 regular-season record, eight trips to the playoffs in ten years, and most notably, a Super Bowl win to conclude the 2013 season.
Now we find ourselves in the second year of the third era of Pete Carroll in Seattle, which commenced in 2022 with a blockbuster trade that might go down as one of the shrewdest in modern NFL history. Despite a Vegas win total Over/Under set at a mere 5.5, the Seahawks finished last year at 9-8 and secured a playoff spot. Turning to Geno Smith, a quarterback who hadn't regularly started since 2014, the team not only remained competitive but ended the season as a top 10 scoring offense, with Smith's dynamic passing effectively utilizing their dynamic receiving duo of DJ Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Over in Colorado, Russell Wilson's disappointing performance made Seattle's trade decision appear like the epitome of selling high on a player past his prime. Although the Seahawks had their challenges, notably against division rivals like the San Francisco 49ers, their season validated Carroll's adaptability and resilience as a coach.
Smith's performance last year was a revelation. He threw for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns, finishing the season with a passer rating of 100.9. It was good enough for the Seahawks to offer him a three-year, incentive-laden worth up to $105 million, though Smith now has the task of proving that last season wasn't an anomaly, especially with higher expectations for the 2023 season.
In terms of roster enhancements, Seattle was strategic. The defensive unit added lineman Dre'Mont Jones on a three-year contract worth over $51 million, and also brought in safety Julian Love and reunited with linebacker Bobby Wagner. Notably, the draft selections of cornerback Devon Witherspoon and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba enriched the team, courtesy of the draft capital from the Wilson trade.
As the Seahawks prepare for the 2023 season, they carry a sense of momentum. While perhaps not reaching the heights of the 2012-14 era, they've unquestionably set the stage for an engaging 2023. If last year serves as any guide, underestimating Pete Carroll and his Seahawks could indeed be a costly mistake.
Pregame.com's MacKenzie Rivers & Sleepy J discuss their predictions for the Seattle Seahawks 2023 season.
The Betting Landscape
In a dramatic shift from last year, the Seattle Seahawks enter the 2023 NFL season expected to contend for the playoffs. This is a stark divergence from preseason expectations last year, when Vegas expected the Seahawks to be one of the three worst teams in the league as they entered life post-Russell Wilson. This surge in optimism primarily stems from our revised expectations for Wilson’s replacement, QB Geno Smith, who had a remarkable 2022 campaign for Seattle. Smith’s improvement, combined with lackluster expectations for division rivals, the LA Rams and the Arizona Cardinals, has made Seattle favorites to make the playoffs for the 11th time in Pete Carroll's 14th year as Seahawks head coach. Let's break down how the Vegas markets have adjusted their odds on the Seahawks.
Seahawks' Super Bowl Chances
Seattle began the offseason with Super Bowl odds of 60 to 1, per the consensus from seven sportsbooks compiled by Pregame.com. With the regular season around the corner, those odds have nearly halved to 33 to 1.
Seahawks SB Odds Progression
February: 60/1
Current (as of August 31st): 33/1
This dramatic improvement in Super Bowl odds largely comes from the wide-open nature of the NFC, with only a handful of obvious contenders in the conference. Notably, future Hall-of-Fame QBs such as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and even former Seahawk Russell Wilson have recently left the conference.
Wins Projection
Vegas had initially set the Seahawks' Over/Under for wins at 8.5. That number has been nudged up to 9, indicating growing confidence in Seattle's season-long prospects. However, there's a small catch. With a bit of vigorish on the Under at -120, the current Vegas win projection equates to approximately 8.9 expected wins.
SEA Seahawks Win Total (consensus odds as of August 31st):
Over 9 (+100)
Under 9 (-120)
Division Odds
Seattle's odds to win the NFC West have undergone a significant positive adjustment since the opening lines in March. Initially listed at 5-to-1, the Seahawks are now the clear second favorites behind the San Francisco 49ers, with consensus odds at +220.
NFC West Odds (Consensus Odds as of 8/31)
SF 49ers -190
SEA Seahawks +220
LA Rams 10-1
ARI Cardinals 28-to-1
Playoff Prospects
When it comes to making the playoffs, the odds are more or less balanced. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the odds for Seattle making the playoffs are set at -120, translating to an implied chance of about 52%. On the flip side, the odds for them missing the playoffs stand at +100, giving an implied probability of around 48%.
Will the Seahawks Make the Playoffs (Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9/1)
Yes: -120 (~52% implied odds)
No: +100 (~48% implied odds)
To sum up, the Seattle Seahawks have emerged as one of the intriguing stories in the futures market, largely riding on the newfound faith in Geno Smith and a division that appears increasingly up for grabs. The betting landscape for Seattle is one of guarded optimism, which aligns closely with their on-field prospects as they look to become a top-tier team in the NFC.
Week 1 Showdown
The Seattle Seahawks kick off their 2023 NFL campaign at home, hosting the Los Angeles Rams at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 10th. As the NFC West rivals face off, both teams are looking to set a decisive tone for the season ahead.
The opening odds had the Seahawks as -5.5 favorites. Despite some fluctuation, current odds have settled back at Seahawks -5.5 (O/U 46.5). Money initially leaned toward the Rams, trimming Seattle's advantage to a 4.5-point favorite by the end of the preseason in late August. However, the line returned to its opening position due to uncertainty surrounding Rams WR Cooper Kupp's recovery from a hamstring injury suffered at the start of training camp.
Kupp, a pivotal player for the Rams, missed both games against Seattle last year due to an ankle sprain. His potential absence this time could have a notable impact, especially given his Super Bowl MVP performance two seasons ago. On the Seahawks' side, first-round pick cornerback Devon Witherspoon's hamstring injury adds another layer of uncertainty.
The over/under for the Week 1 clash is set at 46.5, standing as the third-highest total for the opening week and the highest for a Rams game since Week 3 of last season. This number, three points above the NFL average from the previous season, signals market expectations of a high-scoring game.
Seattle has made key additions like first-round picks CB Devon Witherspoon, who is currently nursing a hamstring injury, and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The return of middle linebacker Bobby Wagner significantly fortifies the Seahawks' lineup. Wagner brings valuable insights from his time with the Rams last season, following a decade as the defensive leader for the Seahawks from 2012 through 2021. Meanwhile, the Rams face uncertainties around key players like Kupp. Both teams have seen significant changes, but the betting market anticipates that the Seahawks' offensive prowess from 2022 will continue and that the Rams will improve with Matthew Stafford back at the helm.
Given these dynamics, the Week 1 contest between the Seahawks and Rams emerges as a critical early-season litmus test that could set the narrative for both teams' seasons. With injuries and high stakes in a competitive division, this matchup promises to be a compelling start to the 2023 NFL season.
Player Spotlights
Geno Smith (QB)
Over/Under 3850.5 Passing Yards
In a narrative-defying performance, Geno Smith had his career year in 2022 with 4,282 passing yards and an NFL-leading completion percentage of 69.8%. The Over/Under for his passing yards this season is set at 3850.5, illustrating renewed expectations for Smith as a legitimate NFL starter. Although he experienced a slight efficiency drop in the latter half of last season, Smith remains a strong wager. The addition of new weapons to Seattle's receiving corps also strengthens his position. As Smith humorously told a reporter after a victory last season, "They wrote me off, but I didn't write back."
Kenneth Walker III (RB)
[No Over/Under Rushing Yards listed]
Uncertainty surrounds the Seahawks' running game, especially with no Over/Under set for Walker. The Seahawks have drafted more RBs in the past decade than any other team, and 2023 was no different; they picked UCLA's Zach Charbonnet 52nd overall. Although Walker is listed as the starting RB in the initial 2023 depth chart, it's advisable for bettors to keep a close eye on developments before placing any season-long or game-specific bets.
DK Metcalf (WR)
Over/Under 900.5 Receiving Yards
Over/Under 7.5 Receiving TDs
DK Metcalf continues to be a major target in Seattle's air attack, but rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba could dilute his share of targets. Metcalf's Over/Under of 900.5 yards appears conservative, particularly if Geno Smith opts to go deep more often this year. Metcalf has crossed the 900-yard mark in all four of his NFL seasons but saw his touchdown numbers dip to 6 last year from 12 the previous season.
Tyler Lockett (WR)
Over/Under 875.5 Receiving Yards
Over/Under 6.5 Receiving TDs
The switch to a full-time boundary receiver role bodes well for Tyler Lockett, who is more than capable of surpassing his Over/Under of 875.5 yards. Lockett excelled as a deep target in 2022, and the arrival of Smith-Njigba in the slot should open up additional chances for him. Notably, Lockett has tallied 950+ yards and at least 8 touchdowns in each of his past five NFL seasons. Entering his ninth season in the NFL, it's easy to forget that Lockett is only thirty years old and may well have several years left in his physical prime.
These key players will not only shape Seattle's season but will also have considerable implications for sports betting outcomes. With a rebalanced offensive attack and new draft picks adding complexity, Seattle's player spotlight offers a blend of proven reliability and new variables. As the season progresses, it will be vital for bettors to adapt their strategies accordingly.
Offseason Chess Moves
The Seattle Seahawks, often in the conversation as a formidable NFC West contender, had an offseason that can be best described as focused and aggressive. This is a team that recognized its strengths and filled in the gaps with key acquisitions, aiming to solidify its place in an NFC that seems up for grabs.
Starting with their moves in free agency, the Seahawks have prioritized their defense, re-signing linebacker Bobby Wagner, a standout on last year's Rams team, while also bringing in defensive interior Dre’Mont Jones. These moves solidify the core of a defense that had moments of vulnerability last season. Seattle also didn't overlook the importance of protection up front, acquiring center Evan Brown who, when he was thrown into the mix for Detroit in 2021, showcased pass-block efficiency that ranks among the top in his position.
However, the headlines were undoubtedly dominated by the team's decision to bet big on Geno Smith as their quarterback. With a multi-year contract worth $105 million, including $40 million fully guaranteed at signing and an additional $30 million in incentives, the Seahawks are clearly investing in Smith's proven capabilities. With the pieces in place on both offense and defense, it seems the Seahawks are looking for Smith, who completed a league-best 69.8% of his passes last season, to be the final cog in a well-oiled machine aiming for a deep postseason run.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, Seattle turned heads by retaining both of their first-round picks, choosing not to trade down or package them for an established star. With these selections, they addressed key areas of need. Devon Witherspoon, their first-round cornerback pick out of Illinois, is coming off a college season where he allowed a measly 34.9% completion rate into his coverage. This is a promising sign for a Seahawks secondary that can use some tightening up.
Their other first-round pick, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a wide receiver out of Ohio State, is perhaps their crown jewel this offseason. Smith-Njigba, lauded for his route-running, fills a critical need for the Seahawks. With Tyler Lockett now on the wrong side of thirty-years-old and battling injuries, and D.K. Metcalf often drawing double coverage, Smith-Njigba could be the reliable third option that keeps defenses guessing.
On days 2 and 3 of the draft, Seattle continued to pad its roster with quality picks. Guard Anthony Bradford, an impressively athletic lineman for his size, and center Olusegun Oluwatimi, who surrendered just three sacks during his time at Virginia and Michigan, are prime examples. These picks not only address immediate needs but also offer promising future prospects.
In free agency, Seattle also saw some notable departures. Defensive interior Poona Ford and linebacker Cody Barton left for Buffalo and Washington, respectively. While these players were solid contributors, the Seahawks' offseason moves suggest confidence that they've adequately filled or even upgraded these positions.
Overall, Seattle's offseason strategy appears well-calculated and timely. Their focused efforts have not gone unnoticed by the Vegas betting market, which has upgraded their position over the course of the offseason. They’ve managed to retain core talent, make splashy but reasoned draft picks, and fill gaps in free agency. Particularly, their significant investment in quarterback Geno Smith indicates a team gearing up for a serious run in a wide-open NFC. The season ahead will tell if these chess moves pay off in the form of postseason success.
Numbers That Matter - A Power Ratings Perspective
In the ever-changing landscape of the NFL, the Seattle Seahawks offer an intriguing case study, especially when looking at their 2022 Power Ratings. Seattle has long been praised for its strong defense under coach Pete Carroll. However, in recent years, they've slipped in this area as young players haven't managed to replicate the performance of outgoing veterans. The maturation of these recent defensive draft picks could be crucial if the Seahawks are to regain their defensive reputation.
Let's delve into some key metrics. The Seahawks finished 2022 with a 10th-place ranking in Total DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which measures a team's efficiency by contrasting its performance against league averages. On closer inspection, their Offensive DVOA landed at 14th, while their Defensive DVOA left something to be desired at 21st.
Switching gears to NFELO rankings, which leverage EPA-based algorithms, Seattle was 21st, performing 1.9 points worse than an average team. The sentiment is echoed by analyst Kevin Cole, who placed Seattle as the 19th-best overall team in his year-end power ratings. According to Cole's evaluations, the offense added a modest +0.7 points of value, ranking 16th, while the defense subtracted -0.92 points, plummeting to a 26th-place ranking.
The inconsistent defensive ratings are a point of concern for the Seahawks, especially given Pete Carroll's defensive background. The team's large investment in safety Jamal Adams has yielded mixed results due to his frequent injuries. Notably, Adams has already been ruled out for the Week 1 clash against the Rams, further casting shadows over Seattle's defensive prospects.
The Seahawks' position in the power ratings reveals a team with a balanced offense but a defense that urgently needs retooling. As recent draft picks continue to mature, Seattle is banking on internal growth and Carroll's proven defensive acumen to climb the rankings and solidify themselves as a playoff contender. With Jamal Adams sidelined for the opener, it'll be a litmus test for this transitioning defense.
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NFL Team Preview Series:
NFC West
2023 LA Rams Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 San Francisco 49ers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Arizona Cardinals Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Seattle Seahawks Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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NFC North
2023 Detroit Lions Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Green Bay Packers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Chicago Bears Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Minnesota Vikings Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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NFC East
2023 Philadelphia Eagles Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Dallas Cowboys Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New York Giants Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Washington Commanders Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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NFC South
2023 Carolina Panthers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New Orleans Saints Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Atlanta Falcons Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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AFC South
2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Indianapolis Colts Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Tennessee Titans Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Houston Texans Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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AFC North
2023 Cleveland Browns Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Baltimore Ravens Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Cincinnati Bengals Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Pittsburgh Steelers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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AFC East
2023 Miami Dolphins Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New England Patriots Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Buffalo Bills Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 New York Jets Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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AFC West
2023 Kansas City Chiefs Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Las Vegas Raiders Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Los Angeles Chargers Team Preview - Betting Prediction
2023 Denver Broncos Team Preview - Betting Prediction
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