The Tennessee Titans pulled off a major coup this past Sunday, as they agreed to terms with three-time First-Team All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins on a two-year, $26 million contract. Hopkins, coming off a season shortened by a suspension, now has an opportunity to solidify the Titans' receiving corps and prove that he can still command the respect of a No. 1 receiver. The Vegas betting markets have been buzzing with this news, and in this article, we take a look at the shifting odds and the potential betting implications of this significant signing.
Let's remember, Hopkins' previous team, the Arizona Cardinals, released him back in May in a move that sent shockwaves through the NFL. He had been a free agent for a while, with BetOnline.ag offering special betting markets on his potential next team. Notably, while the Cowboys were the favorites at +200, the Tennessee Titans were not even listed in the odds at that time, resulting in bookmakers reaping full profits on that market. This serves as a crucial reminder of the implicit advantage bookmakers have when making these ‘special markets’, and that not every one presents a winning opportunity for bettors.
Now, let's dive into the impact of Hopkins' move to the Titans, as viewed from the Vegas lens.
Super Bowl Odds: No Impact?
Before Hopkins' signed, the Titans were placed at 90-to-1 odds for Super Bowl victory, based on a consensus of seven sportsbooks from Pregame.com. That consensus did not change post-signing. This could be an indication of the betting market's skepticism about the overall impact of Hopkins on the Titans' Super Bowl aspirations, or simply a reflection of the team's broader performance outlook for the upcoming season.
A Slight Uptick in the Win Total:
Before the signing, the Titans had an Over/Under win total set at 7.5 games, with the under juiced at -130, indicating a projection of about 7.3 wins for the Titans this season. Following Hopkins' signing, the juice shifted, making it -110 on both sides, implying a 7.5-win-projection. If we consider that 35-points of value on the season is estimated to be worth about 1 win, and the market moved 0.2 wins in the Titans' favor after the signing, we can conclude the market is estimating Hopkins to be worth about 7 points (or 20% of 35) over the course of the season. This implies an upgrade for Tennessee of 0.41 Points Per Game (7/17). The markets are projecting a slight upgrade in the Titans' performance throughout the season due to Hopkins.
AFC South Odds - The Titans Move Up:
There's also been a noticeable shift observed in the AFC South odds. Before the signing, the Titans were the 2nd favorites at +400. The acquisition of Hopkins nudged them closer to the divisional title, with the odds now listed at +310, still holding the 2nd favorite position.
Updated AFC South odds are as follows:
JAX Jaguars -155
TEN Titans +310
Indianapolis Colts +600
HOU Texans +1100
Week 1 Odds - A Notable Shift:
Arguably, the most significant change in betting odds on Sunday following the News was for the Titans' Week 1 match-up vs. the Saints. The Titans were initially listed as +3.5 underdogs to the New Orleans Saints, but following the Hopkins announcement, money poured in on Tennessee, pushing the spread down to +3. This shows that bettors are anticipating a notable immediate impact from Hopkins' presence on the field.
Overall, the signing of DeAndre Hopkins by the Tennessee Titans has made waves in the betting markets. While his impact on the Super Bowl odds remains negligible, there's a clear influence on divisional and Week 1 odds. As savvy sports bettors, these are developments to keep an eye on as we move closer to the season.
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