New England's football landscape just became a whole lot more exciting as the Patriots are expected to sign former Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. The deal, as reported by NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero, is for one year and could be worth up to $6 million.
The announcement adds an extra layer of interest to New England's Week 4 road trip to Dallas. Elliott, a standout in the Cowboys' roster for seven seasons, was released this offseason. His free-agent visit to the Patriots on July 29 has now culminated in a significant move.
Elliott signaled his new beginning with a photo of his fresh haircut on social media Monday, hours before the report of his signing emerged. He later revealed that he will wear No. 15 in New England, a nod to his illustrious college career at the Ohio State University.
This signing provides the Patriots with a critical asset in their backfield. While the team has admiration for Rhamondre Stevenson, the need for a back like Zeke was apparent. With Elliott's expertise in running between the tackles and his proficiency as a pass-blocker, Bill Belichick's squad has acquired a valuable piece to the offensive puzzle.
The arrival of Elliott means a tough competition for remaining Patriots RBs, including veteran Ty Montgomery, Pierre Strong Jr., Kevin Harris, J.J. Taylor, and CJ Marable.
Despite hopes in Dallas that Elliott would return, the Patriots seized the opportunity with a contract that was likely more lucrative than what the Cowboys could present.
With Elliott having seen career lows in 2022, registering only 876 rushing yards and a 3.8-yard per carry average, he still proved himself as a viable goal-line threat, scoring 12 touchdowns. The unceremonious end to his time with the Cowboys will see a dramatic homecoming in Week 4 when the Patriots visit Dallas.
Elliott's legacy as a Cowboy endures, ranking third on the team's all-time rushing list with 8,262 yards, behind only Hall of Famers Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith.
Updated Betting Odds
The signing of Elliott has left a subtle initial mark on the betting landscape. This could be an indication that the market doesn't view Elliott as a game-changer or that the move was already factored in, given the Patriots' publicly stated intention to sign an RB.
The New England Patriots win total over/under remains at 7.5, with significant vigorish to the Under reflecting an expectation of around 7.25 wins.
NE Patriots 2023 Win Total
Over 7.5 +125
Under 7.5 -145
These numbers have seen a considerable shift since opening at 7.5 in March at -110 either way. The market may have anticipated a bigger signing, such as DeAndre Hopkins or Dalvin Cook, who remains unsigned.
The odds for the Patriots to win the Super Bowl have stayed at 60/1 per Pregame.com's consensus odds. However, one bold offer from Westgate in Nevada stands out at 100/1. Neither our consensus odds nor Westgate's odds moved on the Elliott news.
Week 4 Matchup: Dallas Cowboys -4.5 vs. NE Patriots
The Week 4 clash between the Cowboys and Patriots now holds added intrigue with the Dallas Cowboys favored by -4.5 points as hosts. Elliott's return to Dallas will undoubtedly be a storyline to watch, but the odds seem to reflect a measured response to his move.
Additional Insight: A Closer Look at Elliott's Performance
According to NFL analytics guru Kevin Cole, Elliott's estimated "Plus-Minus" or Points added per game peaked during his rookie season at +2.58. Since then, the numbers have steadily declined, reaching a low of -0.27 points added in 2022 - despite his 12 touchdowns.
This trend could be seen as a concern or an opportunity for a resurgence under a new team and system. Only time will reveal how this signing unfolds, but one thing is clear: the Patriots have added a player with the potential to inject both talent and excitement into their game plan. The anticipation for the 2023 season, with this latest roster addition, is palpable.
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Related:
Titans Sign DeAndre Hopkins: Vegas Betting Market Reaction
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