Now that the Pregame.com Pros have so kindly weighed in, I thought I would pull out some recurring themes like we did during March Madness. These appeared to be the three most common sentiments expressed in the various Plans to Win:
Beware the Chalk: Keep the Moneyline Under -200
While the numbers vary from -140 to -180, most of our Pregame.com Pros draw the line at -200 when it comes to betting the moneyline. Here’s several takes on the subject:
JR O’Donnell
ERA and defensive stats always are looked at before we pull the trigger on a team. You can have a powerful offensive squad that does not play defense or have good solid closers, and these teams will money burn in the long run. Middle relief and the ability to close out the ballgame is paramount to my approach. Never, ever lay more than 180 in baseball, as those mistakes can chew up a bankroll real quick.
Steve Fezzik
I know I'm not supposed to do this, but I will. MULTIPLE pros have said. "don't lay -200!" They are basically saying it is suicide to do so (I DO think it's okay to lay the occasional -200 if the numbers warrant it, but I AGREE with the pros when betting MLB sides look to avoid the big chalk.
Having said that, one of THE MOST COMMON betting methods is to just parlay a -200 with a -200 and BOOM, you have avoided laying the chalk! I HAVE to say it. I personally STRONGLY disagree with this method. I understand for recreational gamblers the desire to parlay two -200 favorites, bet $100 and get +125 on your money. However, don't be fooled. You most certainly are laying -200. You are just doing it twice. Even if the games are going at the same time, you are risking $100 to make $50. THEN if you win you are risking $150 to make $75. If your first leg loses, you are risking nothing on Game 2.
Dave Cokin
I almost never play heavy chalk. As offensive production continues to decline, thus producing more close and low-scoring games, laying -1.5 is an increasingly poor wager, although it will always seem so enticing. My plays are generally dogs and small favorites.
Stephen Nover
Protecting the bankroll is a top priority. Discipline must be maintained in order to do that.
One of my keys is never fall in love with a side - especially a big favorite - because the results are too dependent on one player, the starting pitcher. And that pitcher can always have a bad day.
My approach is based on value and survival. In my view, the way to beat the bases is playing underdogs, totals and short favorites. Rarely, if ever, will I lay more than $1.40 and then only if I believe there is strong value on that favorite, which rarely is the case.
Greg Shaker
We want to come with our number as fair and jump the betting line when the time is right, whether that is a side or total. It is very rare for us to play anything over -150 simply because it is rare for our numbers support doing that. There are, however, many that can win betting high favs. It's just not likely with what we do...
Rocky Atkinson
One key to winning in baseball is never play too large of a favorite. My personal cutoff point for this is I never lay more than -150 on any money line. Only small favorites and underdogs.
Work Backwards and Make Your Own Lines
Rather than waiting for the lines on the games to come out, many of our pros make their own lines, then look for value spots in an array of bets based on those lines. I’ll let them elaborate:
Dave Cokin
My entire approach is weighing the data I put the most emphasis on, creating what I believe to be the true line and then going for the value… My plays are generally dogs and small favorites. I will also play my share of F5 (First Five) options, as the decrease in innings being worked by the starters in this age of specialization lends itself to good opportunities on that wager.
Dave Essler
There are any number of bets in/on a given game. Obviously there are the two sides, the total, the first five, alternative RL's, and more. I research every game on the board, every day.
We'll come up with what we think is the strongest play in each game and simply justify whether the price is worth paying or not. If we've determined that indeed it is - what I do is work the game(s) backwards - trying to eliminate as many scenarios as possible as to how we can LOSE the bet. Working backwards, starting with bullpens - and of course to the starters. Oftentimes, we'll find that the bullpens simply aren't something we want our money riding on - but the starter perhaps is, leading to a first-five inning bet.
It's not rocket science - but baseball does have the overwhelming database of statistics that most other sports don't. It is just a matter of finding out which ones are relevant to each individual situation.
Greg Shaker
Having a strong database is key in winning at any sport but more so with Baseball. We want to know how certain pitchers react to certain situations, how they react after certain pitch counts in the prior 1 to 3 games, we want to know how ballparks affect players/pitchers. We want to come with our number as fair and jump the betting line when the time is right, whether that is a side or total.
Scott Spreitzer
MLB had been my most profitable sport for my entire betting / handicapping career, going back to the early 1990s. However, it wasn't that way in 2013 or for a chunk of 2014. An adjustment had to be made for the fact offenses are not producing the type of run support they once did.
Handicapping backwards; adjusting to the offensive decline; and adding my favorite and (to me) the most important metrics led to a healthy 45-23 finish to the 2014 season at Pregame. I was sorry the season came to a close. I do look at most possible ways to bet MLB, including sides, totals, five inning wagers, etc, giving us the best possible chance to produce a profit.
Specialization and Narrowing Your Scope
Thankfully, the pros have been very up front in this thread about what kind of bettors they are when it comes to baseball and what kind of bettors would benefit from their packages and picks this MLB season. This is, in part, because many of them realize the sheer volume of baseball games makes covering the sport too diffficult, so they focus on specific teams or bets instead:
Steve Fezzik
I FULLY recognize that I could spend all day capping MLB and not know half of what many of the MLB experts know about the league. How will I get up to speed quickly? I won't try! Instead, I will specialize! I am going to actively handicap four (FOUR ONLY!) teams. The Cubs, Reds, Padres and Dodgers. I will watch these teams when possible, and I will pour over THEIR box scores. I will do everything possible to learn about JUST THOSE FOUR TEAMS. I will get sharp plays on other teams from my connections, of course, and release some of those games, but I firmly believe if I just follow a select few teams, plays will literally jump off the page for me on those teams…AND I CAN ORIGINATE THEM AND GET THE BEST LINE. More importantly they will win.
SleepyJ
Statistical data for myself is key. I try to find large disparities in stats, especially early on in the season. Pitching for me is the one area I focus on from the full rotation into the bullpen. Early in the year i will focus on a number of teams and feel them out. I'm not a fan of bouncing around the MLB early on in the year. If I can lock in on a few teams, that's gives me the comfort to look at a side or total in the game.
Goodfella
I am big on player match-ups and splits (i.e.) LH pitching vs RH pitching for specific teams, etc. Some players simply see the ball better vs certain pitchers and in certain ballparks as well. Some players rake LH pitching and are weak vs RH pitching and vice versa.
Spartan
This season in baseball I will be limiting the volume of releases. Those who crave several games on a daily basis would be better served with another service. Another thing I am going to do this season I focus more than even usual on my local teams, the Cardinals and Royals. Like any sport, I feel you can spread yourself too thin at times trying to be an "expert" on all the clubs. By tuning into a couple of specific clubs I feel it is easier to get into a comfort zone with them.
Teddy "Covers" Sevransky
My strategy is simple (in theory). I like to look for things that advanced metrics don't measure well. And I like to concentrate on two things that, in my opinion, are not factored into the betting markets correctly -- short term lineup fluctuations and long term bullpen capability.
Bad bullpens are a key for Over bets and a key for assessing a team's capability. When squads routinely blow late leads, it's a locker room killer, a season killer. Nine teams returned more than three units of profit for their supporters last year: Baltimore, Seattle, Pittsburgh, San Fran, the LA Angels, the LA Dodgers, the New York Mets, Washington and KC. 7 of those nine teams finished among the Top 10 in bullpen ERA.