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Fezzik Win Streaks

  • +20 UNITS YTD
  • 6-0 Last 6 Plays, NBA totals 24-10 YTD
  • PLUS 111.5 units 2014
  • NBA 75-38-1 RUN
updated: March 1 at 11:10 PM PT


Let's go for LUCKY 7! Get EVERY pick I make Monday!
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Last 5 Comments

(Post Comment)

Sun, Mar 1 2015
4:17 PM
I like the Select HACK strategy...make him go 2/4, then I give up.....if he goes 1/4 or 0/4 I hack til he hits 2.
Sun, Mar 1 2015
12:34 PM

Steve, sorry for the long post, but I know you love the strategy talk like I do.  Some NBA coaches (Popovich a couple weeks ago and Thibodeau today) are trying to beat the Clippers by intentionally fouling Deandre Jordan.  It’s not a terrible strategy overall.  Most NBA teams average between 1 and 1.1 points per possession.  Jordan shoots 40% from the line, so every time you foul him (shooting fouls, obviously), you can expect the Clips to score 0.8 points on that possession.  That’s pretty good defensive efficiency, so I have no problem with what Popovich did that night.  However, what Thibs did today was use that strategy to try and come back from a fairly large deficit (8 points or so) late in the fourth quarter (3-4 minutes to go).   In that situation, the Clippers are perfectly happy to score 0.8 points per possession because they really only need to score a few more points to win the game.  Jordan ended up 5-12 from the line, so right around his average.  The Bulls’ win probability at that point is probably around 5-10%, and the only way they’re going to win the game is to have really fantastic defensive and offensive efficiency in those last 3-4 minutes.  The DE would probably have to be around 0.5 or even lower.  My larger point, and this is really stolen from Fezzik, is that EVERY SINGLE COACH IN THE NBA SHOULD UNDERSTAND AND BE ABLE TO EXPLAIN SOMETHING LIKE THIS, and in reality I’m sure the number who can do so is either zero or one (Popovich).  It took me about five minutes of internet research to figure this out, and I have no background in accounting or statistics.  If your coach can’t figure this out, fire him and hire someone who can, or keep your idiot coach and hire some kind of game manager/strategy person who the coach is required to listen to.

Sun, Mar 1 2015
12:27 PM
Correction, picks are final, going with the 3 plays, note the Clev/Hou writeup contains a 1st hlf play for Port/Sac
Sun, Mar 1 2015
12:23 PM
If you bought my package keep checking back on the Port Sacr pick for possible add'l plays on other games, I will list them there.
Sun, Mar 1 2015
11:18 AM
The way I bet DOES NOT allow me very often to give out specific release times, when I get the info. I FIRE and I release.

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6-0 RUN, NBA 80-45-2 YTD
WE ARE RED HOT, 6-0 on our last 6, let's roll.....
MAYBE an overnight pick, but likely 1st pick tomorrow am......
Last 10 Picks from Fezzik
03/01 CBB ML -160 $100
03/01 NBA Total 208.0
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02/28 CBB ML -145 $200
02/28 CBB Sides 2.0
02/28 NBA Total 183.0
02/27 NBA Total 195.5
02/27 NBA Total 207.0
02/26 NBA Total 215.5
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