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Dave Essler
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Dave Essler Win Streaks

  • 15-5 (75%) CBB Triple Dime Run
  • 23-11 G.O.W Run (67%) 12-7 3* Run!
  • 11-1 FB 3* Run +34.95 U in 2014 YTD
  • 16-9 (62%) "Big Bet" Run +28.40 MLB TY
  • 138-96 (59%) All Sport Total Winners
updated: August 27 at 5:09 AM PT

Split our MLB plays on Wednesday............. we were looking fairly solid til Rosscup came in and promptly let up the extra run. Also hit the first half of our CFB teaser w/Abilene Christian and now we'll look to see what our options are for maximizing that bet, if any. We've got some great numbers for the first few games, so it'd be a great time to be a long term client.

Also, CFB football packages are up, as are two Triple Dimes for the first week. Prices are still reasonable, and as we do in MLB we'll try to give thoughts on every game. We ended last season on an 11-1 Triple Dime run and just look to take it one day at a time as we always do. Football is indeed more popular, but it's simply another exploitable opportunity is all.

As I have said many times, there are only two sides to every game, the one that wins and the one that does not. There are no gray areas cashing tickets, so the "you had the right side" does not apply here.

Bowl Games of the Year

2011 CFB GOY - Winner Alabama over LSU 
2012 CFB GOY - Winner Syracuse over WVU
2013 GOY I - Winner Iowa over LSU
2013 GOY II - Winner Nebraska over Georgia

2014 NL GOY - Winner Cardinals over 
July MLB GOM -
July MLB NL GOM - Winner Cubs over Padres

Mirrored Conversation:
Posts made and displayed below are also automatically displayed within a dedicated forum thread. Replies (in the forum) to that dedicated thread are also displayed below - meaning the conversation is mirrored both here and there.

Last 5 Comments

(Post Comment)

Tue, Aug 26 2014
2:13 AM
oh boy
Dave Essler
Mon, Aug 25 2014
7:11 PM

[quote user="cwong616"]Much needed time off after these past few days...

[/quote]Planning on it for the NEXT few........went from on fire to ice cold overnight. 

Mon, Aug 25 2014
7:09 PM
Much needed time off after these past few days...
The Woodman
Sun, Aug 24 2014
4:41 PM
JUST GUYS THAT ARE INEXPERIENCED. GOY..GOM just plays that a guy likes more. I want them to tell me what their favorites are...made me a ton of money over the last three years..I have plays I like most...hell unbelievable ..simple..JOED
The Woodman
Sun, Aug 24 2014
4:37 PM

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Thu, 08/28/14 - 7:00 PM Dave Essler | CFB Side
free pick 136 La.-Monroe 2.5 (-110) BetOnline vs 135 Wake Forest
We released this to our long term subscribers at +3.5 last week. I might buy it back to +3 for arguments sake, but wanted to share this as well as what we plan on doing all year with other games.
Welp, it appears we got the best of the number, which is half the battle. These two teams met last year at Wake, and ULM actually beat them SU as a +2.5 point underdog. So, one would think Wake has revenge, but not on the road. ULM did lose some in the off-season, but they gained a QB. Senior transfer (from NC State) Pete Thomas, who went to ULM when Dave Doeren (new Wolfpack coach) said that Jacoby Brissett would start the next two years. Brissett is a Florida transfer. Thomas also played at Colorado State for two years, so he's got something to prove. He's not the be all, end all, or he'd still be in NC State, but he's a far better QB than a true Freshman (John Wolford) starting his first career game on the road. Dave Clawson comes from Bowling Green to be the first year Deacons coach, so we've got a first year coach and a true Freshman QB on the road. Yes, Wolford broke all Tebow's High School Florida records. But, this is a quantum leap. Wake brings back NONE of their starting backfield and only three offensive lineman. Not good, IMO. And they bring back ZERO of their defensive line. ULM brings back almost their entire defense, and defenses are almost always ahead of offenses early on, and Wake couldn't score LAST year with everyone that departed. Wake in their last 20 road games are 5-15 SU and not much better ATS. ULM has won SU three of their last four as a +4 underdog or less, and the loss of Price for Wake is far more significant than the loss of Browning for ULM. Wake was awful last year, and although ULM wasn't a juggernaut, Wake shouldn't be favored here, not with their lack of offense or defense from last season, minus the graduates.

Early thoughts on other Thursday games.
Being a Gamecock fan I am trying to be unbiased here. The loss of Shaw might be bigger than people think. Dylan Thompson simply isn't going to run, although he does have a better arm and they do have skill position players on offense. I suspect Spurrier may play it close to the vest here, not wanting to put Thompson in harms way early. Their defense without Clowney will obviously suffer, but their DB's are simply raw, IMO. So, no Manziel or Mike Evans, either. I still wouldn't lay the points at this point in time, and think it does stay under.
Unusual for Tulsa and Tulane to open with a Conference game. Tulsa lost at Tulane last season 14-7, which is one reason why the total may be so low. Both teams bring back most of their starters, so I actually lean over a little. We'll wait and see what the line does. 5 is a dead number, and if we took the points we'd want +6 and if we took the over we'd want it at less than 48.
I will almost always fade SEC teams on the road (or at home) against non-conference teams. They're almost always over valued, and this is probably no exception. Mississippi hasn't been a double-digit road favorite in quite some time, and that current total of 56 may be a bit too high. I do expect Ole Miss to have a great defense, so IMO right now that may be the best play in the game.
The best numbers are gone if you wanted to take Temple, and after what Vanderbilt did last season they're clearly going to be an early public team, so that early scalping of +17 isn't unexpected. Right now I don't like this game much at all.
Rutgers always has a good defense, but they don't play teams like Washington State very often. Rutgers goes to the B-10 and brings a ton of people back, while WSU brings a ton back, especially on offense. I can see this game staying reasonably close for the 1H, but the speed at which WSU runs their offense may wear out Rutgers in the 2H if they can't create some turnovers. Every WSU game will have a big total for obvious reasons, so we'll wait and see here. Perhaps I could tease Rutgers to more than +14, and we rarely tease totals. 
As always, this is an early look and we'll update things closer to game-day.
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