11/1 12:00 PM CF (351) WESTERN KENTUCKY at
(352) LOUISIANA TECH
FREE PICK: (352) LOUISIANA TECH -6.5
Here's a good example of how final scores frequently don't tell
the real story, and how betters can derive value moving forward.
Western Kentucky got the win and cover last Saturday as they ended
up with an insane 66-51 victory over visiting Old Dominion.
The game was close than that final tally indicates, and one
could easily argue that the Hilltoppers were a little fortunate to
just win the game, let alone cover. One fourth quarter play really
swing this free for all. The Monarchs were driving for a go ahead
score when disaster struck. Juwan Gardner played the hero role for
the home team when he picked off a pass and rumbled 96 yards for a
TD that pretty much ended the proceedings. If Gardner doesn't make
that play, there's a really good chance ODU gets the upset.
I make sure and keep notes on games that go like this one for a
couple reasons. One is the potential of an immediate profit by
garnering some value the next week. The other is for future
reference. I'll have next year's meeting between these teams
circled as a possibly strong revenge spot for Old
As for this Saturday, I actually ended up downgrading Western
Kentucky on my various power rankings off what I deemed an
artificial win. The Hilltoppers have been going backwards for some
time now, with their matador defense the primary culprit. There's
no question this team can put points on the scoreboard, but right
now they aren't stopping anyone.
Louisiana Tech has now won three straight, in spite of playing
very lackluster first half offense the last two games, against UTSA
and Southern Mississippi. But the Bulldogs are doing a solid job on
defense, and if they can put forth a similar effort on Saturday, it
bodes well for their chances against Western Kentucky.
I'm not real enamored with the home team's offense. They should
be running the ball better than they have recently, and that
portion of their game needs to come back to life on Saturday. But
that really doesn't figure to be a problem against the shoddy
Hilltoppers stop unit, which is about as bad as it gets
I made this number considerably more than where it opened, and
even with the spread going up some over the last couple of days,
it's still in what I would consider to be a beatable range. I
expect Louisiana Tech to get home by double digits this weekend, so
I'll recommend laying the points with the Bulldogs.
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