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Dave Cokin
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updated: March 26 at 9:33 AM PT

Thursday: Free Sweet 16 Pick

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Last 5 Comments

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Sat, Mar 21 2015
8:58 AM
hope you get hotter with these pk's Killin my pockets!!
Thu, Mar 19 2015
12:05 PM
Nice call on Northeastern
Sun, Mar 15 2015
7:23 AM
Good to see Sam Houston beat u 3 days in a row what a joke
Sun, Mar 15 2015
6:51 AM
I never received E. Washington pick??
Sat, Mar 14 2015
6:45 AM
Hope some of u followed the Portland Game last night that's how u pick a blowout

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Fri, 03/27/15 - 9:45 PM Dave Cokin | CBB Sides
free pick 884 Duke -5.5 (-110) Hilton vs 883 Utah

Let's get the obvious out of the way here. Duke will be public chalk in this game and that's not something that thrills me from a wagering standpoint. But while I'm one who prefers to go against the grain when I can, if I think the popular favorite is the right side, I'm generally going to go ahead and play it regardless.

Larry Krystkowiak has done a truly phenomenal coaching job at Utah. He took over a program that has absolutely bottomed out and getting the Utes to this level so rapidly is nothing short of incredible. Make no mistake, there's nothing fluky about Utah. They're balanced, they're big and they're legitimate.

However, I'm liking this Duke entry more and more. It really has become a true addition by subtraction scenario for the Blue Devils. Since Coach K decided to give Rasheed Sulaimon the boot, Duke has become a better basketball team. They're 14-1 since his departure and that record has been achieved against some very talented opposition.

My key for this game is not in the numbers. Fact is, I think I could use the math to build a case for the underdog if I was inclined to. My take is that Duke is playing such good offense right now, I believe they can get good looks and cash in regularly, even against a very tough Utah defense. If that happens, I don't see Utah keeping pace for 40 minutes.

I'll also toss in the moment as a potential factor. I'm certainly not going to say with any degree of certainty that Utah gets overwhelmed by the pressure that comes with playing in the Sweet 16. But I think it's a possibility. Duke has been prepping for this moment all season, and I will speculate that this could be an advantage for the Blue Devils.

Is this as strong an opinion as a typical regular season game where I can implement all kinds of variables? Nope. That's one of the things that, at least for me, makes the post season less of a certainty than the regular season. The numbers are razor sharp and the spread is frequently a coin flip right to the finish. So yeah, there's a grain of salt recommendation here. But I'm seeing Duke as the winner here and while the line is surely no bargain, I prefer the Blue Devils minus the points.

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