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This is what is known as a square bet. Laying the runs line in
baseball looks like easy money, as it's basically always the better
team with the better pitcher and all they have to do is win by two
or more runs to produce a healthy profit.
Obviously, it's not easy money, and if it really was, you wouldn't
be able to get those sometimes juicy dogs prices with the
supposedly cinch winner.
Let's just say I rarely take the bait on these types of wagers. But
I'm going to take the plunge tonight as the White Sox and Royals
open a weekend series in Kansas City.
The basis for my play here is the starting pitchers and what I'm
pretty sure is the setup for the Royals as far as the game plan is
concerned. Danny Duffy will be on the mound for KC, and while the
White Sox have a pretty impressive stat line against lefties, I
really like the way Duffy is throwing the baseball. Duffy will not
go deep in this game, but he already knows that. He was lifted
after 63 pitches in his most recent outing, and I would figure he's
on a roughly 75-80 max count here.
That's not a bad thing. Duffy can let 'er rip for perhaps five
innings and then turn things over to the power arms in the Kansas
City bullpen. Of course, I've got to bank on Duffy doing his thing
for however long he's in there. But again, I do like what I'm
seeing from the southpaw and feel he has a good chance to limit the
Miguel Gonzalez is off a terrific effort, and it was against these
very same Royals. But if I'm bullish on Duffy, I'm pretty much just
the opposite on Gonzalez. He's a gritty guy who has maxed out on
his marginal stuff over the past few years. But it's my opinion
that shutting down the same team in back to back starts is a bit
much to ask from the limited Gonzalez.
I also like the way the Royals are swinging the bats. They're
actually a little shorthanded right now, but the bottom line is
that the healthy KC hitters are mashing and I feel confident they
can maintain the recent surge tonight.
The safer option here would be to create a -1 line, which can be
accomplished by splitting the wager, half on the money line and
half on the runs line. But I'm going to go ahead and push the
envelope this one time, and I'll go for the price with the Royals
-1.5 this evening.