The NCAA Tournament is a sporting event notorious for new or inexperienced bettors posting bets, filling out brackets, and taking a shot at winning a few dollars in addition to cheering on their alma maters. If you’re looking to up your March Madness game a little this year, I got some general tips from several of our Pregame.com pros about how to approach the tournament, what to look out for and what to avoid:
Coaching Matters Most
Far and away, the most common tip the pros offered was to pay less attention to the players on the floor and more attention to the coach on the sidelines. Here’s what a few of them had to say on the subject:
Goodfella
For me, a savvy and previously tournament tested Head Coach is a HUGE edge and key for success come NCAA Tournament time. The ability to know how to not only prepare their team for the tournament games on the court, but also having the past experience on how to handle/juggle the team and possible distractions that may come up away from the court is of importance. The NCAA tournament is such a different animal than the regular season is. Having your leader (head coach) and his staff seasoned with past experience(s) is an edge that most overlook, in my opinion.
JR O’Donnell
One of the tools that a sharp capper needs to have in the bag is the evaluation of the coach on the sidelines. Has he been there before? I have had tremendous success and put a ton of emphasis on the coach, as the preparation of a tourney team is tough sledding for a first time coach.
The travel, huge crowds, national TV audience and vast arenas that sometimes pose shooting problems for teams that play in and are accustomed to a small gym. The coach that has been there before with success is worth a hard look over a first-time coach. It is flat-out overwhelming, in my opinion, for a rookie coach to shine the first time in the Big Dance. The time/preparation and practices are just not there from selection Sunday to game one.
sleepyj
Since the days of Jerry Tarkanian, coaching has become one of the biggest things bettors need to keep an eye on. When you really look at what coaches have won the overall title, the list is rather small just looking at the last 25 years. Let's take a look at Mike Krzyzewski (4), Dean Smith (2), Jim Calhoun (3), Billy Donovan (2), Rick Pitino (2) and Roy Williams (2). They have accounted for 15 titles over the last 25 years, with exception of Dean Smith getting his first in 1982. Take note of the coaches listed above, and notice that some of them left great programs who also contended for Final Fours and NCAA Championships.
Can you remember the last time these coaches didn't make an appearance in March? Bill Self, Tom Izzo, John Calapari, Jim Boeheim, Shaka Smart, John Thompson II or John Thompson III. These are the names we see year in and year out. That's just the short list. We can add names like Lon Kruger and Larry Brown as well. My point is this: coaching is key and coaching experience is crucial. When the chips are down, a cool-headed coach who has been in tough game situations can control his team, the crowd, the officials, and even himself when it is needed most.
Point Guard Play Is a Major Key to Success
Yes, the coach is important, but when you are evaluating a team and what they are doing on the court, you’re going to want to focus most on the point guard. I’ll let some of our pros explain why:
Dave Essler
Point guard play and experience are great places to continue the handicapping. Every year, there seems to be that one team that advances further than anyone thought, and the one thing they've ALL got in common is an upper-class point guard that can shoot.
[More from Dave Essler: Vegas tips for EVERY tournament team]
Tony George
One of the keys to the March Madness is good guard play. Ball handling, turnovers and shooting skills advance teams in these postseason tourneys. Also, an overall view of the team's free throw percentage, as we all know that at day's end many of these games come down to free throws in the final 2 minutes. Look at teams who won conference championships, good guard play was abundantly apparent.
Joe Gavazzi
At the forefront of the NCAA handicapping is fundamental consideration, best expressed through statistical analysis. Complementing this analysis is the current form of the teams involved. Since all games are played on neutral courts, I discard home numbers in favor of road ability. Special attention is also afforded to the overall postseason experience of each team. Guard play is also emphasized, as is coaching experience and ability. Primary statistical consideration is given to defense and rebounding, because that has proven to be what wins championships.
Focus on Teams Who Are Running Hot Now
When the NCAA committee seeds the field, they take the entire season into consideration, but that doesn’t mean you should. Plenty of pros echoed this sentiment, but one pro has a slightly contrarian opinion. Check it out:
Spartan
It is critical to view teams based on the last few weeks, who is hot and gelling at the exact right moment. The committee considers the span of the entire body or work for an entire season, but give me the team peaking at the right time. Classic example was UConn last season and we all know Tom Izzo teams are best this time of year. “What have you done lately?” is the motto here. Quality wins back in November may have helped gotten you a ticket to the show, but it won't impress me as much as what I've observed lately.
Ken Thomson
Look at the intangible, like how team is playing now as opposed to mid-December or January. In other words, it's nice that some teams have had good wins from two months ago, but if they've dropped six of last seven like Oklaoma State, I will look to go against that team.
Steve Fezzik Somewhat Disagrees
(He offers some words of warning about picking some of the red hot conference champions)
Look to fade teams who just won their conference tournaments.
This one is about as contrarian as you will find. Why are we fading teams playing well? The truth is, by the time conference tournaments are starting, we have a very good grasp of the correct power ratings for teams. Someone has to win the conference tournament, often, it is just a combination of good luck and a good draw through the conference.
Playing three games in three nights and winning (and then celebrating...and hearing how good you are on SportsCenter) is NOT what you want your team to do ideally to be ready for the BIG Dance. The poster child of this is the fine 1983 NC State Championship team that won the ACC tournament, and then was flat as a pancake Round 1 vs. Pepperdine...and should have gone home, if not for extraordinary luck.
[more from Steve Fezzik: The five Tourney spreads with the best chance to move before tip-off]
Coming up later today, we’ll have some more specific advice from how to handle these early rounds, including how to find your Cinderellas and just how much seeding matters. Stay tuned!