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Joe Gavazzi
  • Unmatched Career Net Profit (Winning high volume since 1979)
  • Former "Playbook" and "Power Plays" Newsletter Author
  • Sportsbk Consultant (Island of Curacao) now Judge Joe
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Joe Gavazzi Win Streaks

  • 11-5 NBA Run Since 1/12
  • 2-0 CBB since 2/26
updated: February 27 at 11:51 AM PT

Tough NBA loss last night but 2-0 in my CBB

Been a back and forth week on the wire as I come into Friday at a 6-6 overall mark. Hopefully the Grizz can put my over .500 for the work week! Best of Luck over the weekend everyone
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Last 5 Comments

(Post Comment)

johnnymo
Thu, Feb 26 2015
4:10 PM

Thx for the freebie Joe and BOL  My Friend

Joe Gavazzi
Thu, Feb 26 2015
1:53 PM

Arizona St. at Utah (-12-) 10:30 ET FS1

Free 2* Utah (-12)

To reduce the profit made by the highly successful Big Dog bettors in CBKB recent seasons, the linemaker has been squeezing the line on double digit favorites.  Recently, that has begun to bite him in the butt!  Witness the 23-35 ATS mark of double digit dogs in the last week, including 5-9 ATS the last two nights.  Here is a great spot to cash in with the value presented by this linemaker error.  Arizona St. is a middle of the pack, PAC 12 team at 7-7 SU in the league.  Their weaknesses have been clearly exposed when traveling to face the quality teams in the league.  Witness a loss of 24 at Arizona and 19 at Stanford.  Now, they must face a Utah team of that same ilk and they are at the wrong place at the wrong time.  We will start with the altitude of Salt Lake City, where the Sun Devils were swamped by a count of 86-63 last year.  Then, there are the fundamental differences of this season, which were obvious in the Utes’ (76-59) win at Arizona St. on January 15th of this season.  Now, they must face the undefeated home court of Huntsman Arena, where the Utes are 54-23 ATS long term, including 10-4 ATS this year.  In facing PAC 12 opponents this season at Huntsman, Utah has won every game by 15 or more points.  When I said wrong time, I was referring to the fact that the Utes return home from a 69-58 loss at Oregon. Utah is 4-0 ATS following a loss this season with every victory by 13 or more points.  Corroborating their fundamental excellence is their Defensive Dandy status, which shows that Utah allows just 56 PPG on 38% shooting, 32% from behind the arc and has positives in rebound margin, assist/TO margin and TO margin.  This spread could well be covered in the first 5 minutes!  Only possible drawback is a look-ahead to Arizona this weekend.

Joe Gavazzi
Wed, Feb 25 2015
10:57 AM

Valparaiso (-4.5-) at Detroit 7:00 ET

Free 2* Game - Valparaiso (-4.5)

Valpo sits atop the Horizon standings with a 2-game lead in the loss column.  But, their at-large case cannot afford any bad losses, as they are on the verge of being “bubblicious” with an RPI in the 60s.  This, despite 7 consecutive wins and a 25-4 SU record!  Note that they have been recently strengthened with the return of PG Carter, who missed the previous 8 games.  More to our liking is the fact they qualify as one of my group of 2015 Roadrunners in college basketball, who, as a group, are 90-35 ATS (72%).   These 22 teams all win 67% or better of their true road games (Valpo is 7-3 SU ATS away) and have gone 90-35 ATS (72%) when installed as dog to favorite up to 6 points (Valpo 6-2 ATS in that role).  With a long-term successful history under 4th year HC Drew of 14-5 ATS as road chalk, we comfortably line up against the middle of the pack Titans (13-17 SU, 6-9 SU) who are just 16-13 SU on this court the last 2 seasons.

Don't miss out on my 3* College Basketball Best Bet of the Day! A winner that is sure to help us through this humpday and send us full steam into the weekend!

Joe Gavazzi
Tue, Feb 24 2015
1:58 PM

Bowling Green (-3.5-) at Ohio 7:00 ET

 

Free 2* Bowling Green (-3.5)

 

The proud home boards of the Ohio U Convocation Center have eroded to 7-6 SU for the season, under 1st year HC Saul Phillips.  The irony of this is that his former team, the N. Dakota St. Bison, are a perfect 14-0 SU at home this season.  Entering the year, Ohio was 34-9 ATS at home to -3.  In that role this season, however, they are a very modest 3-5 ATS.  In fact, Ohio is just 2-4 ATS as a home dog for the season and is on a 0-4 SU ATS slide as this perennial 20-win team is 9-16 SU, 8-14 ATS in the first year under Phillips.  The turnaround has also happened at Bowling Green.  In the previous 5 years, the Falcons had just 69 total wins, never winning more than 16 games in the season.  Enter 1st year HC Chris Jans, the former Wichita St. assistant, under Gregg Marshall.  Bowling Green has immediately turned around under Jans’ guidance.  This year, the Falcons enter today at 17-8 SU, 17-5 ATS.  In very Wheatshocker-like fashion, BG is 7-4 SU, 9-2 ATS away, including 3-0 as pick or road favorite (a role in which Marshall is a long term 35-14 ATS).  Trailing Kent by 1 game in the MAC East and coming off consecutive home losses to Miami and Buffalo, look for a strong BG bounce back, in the preferred role against a Bobcat team who has lost their way.

Joe Gavazzi
Fri, Feb 20 2015
1:32 PM

Princeton at Dartmouth (-3) 7:00 ET

1* Princeton (+3)

At 7:00 pm this evening, the Princeton Tigers travel north to Hanover, New Hampshire to face the Big Green of Dartmouth in an Ivy League clash of teams with far different basketball traditions.  For much of the last 30 years, in the continuing legacy of Pete Carril, the Princeton Tigers have challenged for Ivy supremacy in most years.   At the other end of the spectrum is a Dartmouth team who, by the admission of their own coach, has not had a winning culture with the basketball program since the late ‘50s.  This year, Princeton stands 4-3 SU ATS in Ivy League play, while Dartmouth is 2-6 SU ATS in the Ancient 8.  An earlier meeting between these two resulted in a 64-53 Princeton victory.  No surprise there, as in the last 3+ years (during the time the current players have been in the program), Princeton is 6-1 SU ATS vs. Dartmouth with an average victory margin of 16 PPG. Let’s go inside these programs to get an idea of why the wrong team is favored.    

 

Paul Cormier was the coach at Dartmouth in the late ‘80s.  He recently returned to Hanover with hopes of rejuvenating the fortunes of his beloved Big Green.  In the previous 5 seasons, however, Dartmouth recorded a total of just 36 victories.  True enough, the 12 wins of last year was their most in the previous 15 seasons.  They even had a winning record on their home court for the first time since 2005, as a result of beating both Princeton and Penn at Leede Arena.  Another positive was the fact that the Big Green out-rebounded their opponents for the first time in 27 years.  It helped them to 68 PPG (their highest scoring output since 1987).  With a pair of key starters returning in PG Mitola and interior force, Maldunas, it appeared as if the Big Green was ready to challenge for the upper echelon of the Eastern 8.  Those expectations were ramped up when Dartmouth went to Cambridge on January 24th and celebrated a 70-69 road win as 11 point road dog at 4-time defending champion, Harvard.  Since that high point, however, the Big Green has come crashing back to reality with a 1-5 SU ATS mark, snapped only by a victory on this court vs. Columbia last Saturday night, when they caught the Lions flat after taking Harvard to the limit on Friday night.  Over that span, Mitola is averaging just 8 PPG on 33% shooting.   Not sure the Big Green is to be trusted on a Leede Arena court where they are 22-26 SU L3+Y. 

 

The days of Princeton dominating the league (along with Penn) and being an automatic 20 win team have gone by the wayside under 4th year HC Henderson.  Slowly, his regime has strayed from the basic principles that were so carefully laid in the foundation built by legendary Princeton HC Carril.  The Tigers did manage the CBI Quarter Finals last year, but missed the NCAA Tourney for the 9th time in the previous 10 years.  A look at last year’s numbers tells the story.  Princeton averaged 71 PPG, while allowing 64 PPG.   That is a huge departure from former years, when they were leading the nation in defense and often failing to reach a total of 120 points in their games.   This season, the margins are even tighter with the Tigers outscoring foes just 69 to 66 PPG.  If you were to watch their games, you would not recognize the more open court offense and permissive defense. Despite those changes, the tradition of Princeton still attracts a higher quality player than the Big Green can recruit.  The Tigers are 4-3 SU ATS in league play and vie with Columbia (whom they have beaten in Man

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