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Joe Gavazzi

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2015-11-08T03:00:00.000Z 2015-11-08T03:00:00.000Z - College Football

421 Michigan State Spartans
vs.
422 Nebraska Cornhuskers

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

11/07/2015

CFB Sides

Michigan State

38-39

-5½-106

3

L

-318

Analysis

Michigan St. (-5-) at Nebraska 8:00 ET ESPN

Michigan St. visits Nebraska.  It is a game that has super-surger vs. towel-tosser implications written all over it!  Though the teams are clearly headed opposite directions, we get the best of it in the line because of the 0-6 ATS start of the Spartans.  Along with the fundamentals outlined below, you can feel most comfortable that the college football ODDS are in your favor with this college football PICK on Michigan St.

It is never easy to get a square peg to fit into a round hole!  That is exactly what Nebraska chose to do, when they hired HC Mike Riley to take over the program at the beginning of this football season.  The Nebraska tradition has been established in the heartland of this country with an offense that has been geared to running the football.  The “ground and pound” attack for years STEAMROLLED the opposition into submission.  In recent years, the Huskers opened up the playbook a bit under former HC Pelini.  They were still successful with a balanced offense with no more than 4 losses and at least 9 wins in each of the previous 4 seasons.  But, Pelini was a bit rough around the edges which did not suit the “down-home ways” of the Nebraska faithful.  Enter this year’s HC Riley, who has 24 years of HC experience.  Though he has featured various levels of success in his stops, it is clear that he brings a pro-style passing attack mindset to Nebraska.  This has simply not played out to the benefit of this team this year.  The Huskers hit the nadir of their discontent last week in a (55-45) loss at Purdue as 11 point road favorite.  It was only the 2nd victory in Big 10 play for Purdue under their current coaching regime.  In that contest, Purdue outrushed Nebraska 183-77.  In so doing, Nebraska dropped to 3-6 SU ATS and is directly in danger of missing a Bowl game, a rare occurrence.  Should that mindset become a reality in the 2nd half of this game, do not be surprised if the Huskers toss the towel!

The season for Michigan St. has been quite dichotomous.  Spartans are still adjusting to life without former DC Narduzzi, who is currently succeeding as the HC at Pitt.   Without him, the Spartans are allowing 22/356/5.5 on the defensive side of the ball, a clear drop from the previous 4 seasons.  But, the passing game has perked up for the Spartans who, behind QB Cook, are averaging 258/8.1.  Cook has a 17/2 ratio for the year.  That passing attack will have huge success against the weak link of the Nebraska defense, whose secondary is allowing 316/7.5. 

 Best part of this selection is the line that has remained unchanged since opening week.  Despite the fact Michigan St. is 8-0 SU and remains in contention for the Final Four, their 0-6 ATS start has kept this line in place.  With a week of rest to prepare for this game (HC Dantonio 8-2 ATS with rest), look for a focused effort by the Spartans as they super-surge their way past defenseless Nebraska!

Pick Creation Time:
11/05/2015 10:53 AM
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