Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Based on what they did (or didn't
do) on Monday night (only 9 points), there won't be a lot of Totals
Players on a Houston OVER this week... but we will. The reduced
rest usually leads to a lot of points. It's actually the RIGHT time
to strike. That's because Non-division HOME favorites off a Monday
night ROAD game (TEXANS) have gone 24-5 O/U since 2009... including
a PERFECT 11-0 O/U off a Monday LOSS.
We're well aware that Houston had
only 271 total offensive yards in that 27-9 loss to the Denver
NFL favorites off a ROAD loss of
> 7 pts to the Denver Broncos that also went UNDER have gone 9-1
O/U since 2002 (TEXANS).
Yes, Houston only scored 9 points
last week. But prior to that, they were on a 3-game 'OVER' streak.
And besides, already THIS season... NFL home favorites who scored
< 10 points on the ROAD in their last game (TEXANS) have gone
6-1 O/U. In the last 3 seasons, this situation has gone 13-3
The fact that Houston has a BYE next
week is also a good indicator for a high-scoring
HOME FAVS before their Bye Week have
gone 3-0 O/U so far this year.
And from Page Three, we note that
GAME EIGHT non-division teams BEFORE their Bye Week (HOU) have gone
a PERFECT 8-0 O/U when the OU line is 45 >
The non-conference aspect of this
game also sets up well for us OVER players.
(1) 8-0 O/U L4Y: All AFC home teams
off a SU loss and an 'Under' (HOU) vs any NFC opponent also off an
(2) 10-0 O/U since 2008: All AFC
SOUTH favorites (TEXANS) versus any NFC NORTH opponent
(LIONS) when the OU line is 43 > points.
Mainstream OU players will also be a
little gun-shy about playing a Detroit OVER, given the low-scoring
slim home win last week against the Redskins. Not
9-0-1 O/U last 4 years: All GAME
FIVE > non-division teams off a SU non-division home win of 3
< points (LIONS) that also went 'Under the Total'... when the OU
line is 44 > pts.
Let's not forget that while Detroit
home games have averaged only 43.5 ppg, their ROAD games have
averaged 55.4 ppg!