For the second straight week, there were more UNDERS
than OVERS in NFL Week Eight action. In fact, the results were
exactly the same (7-8 O/U) as they were last week (7-8 O/U). The
Sunday early-kickoff games went 4-5 O/U. The Sunday late-kickoff
games went 1-2 O/U. And the primetime games went 2-1 O/U. For the
season, there's been 64 OVERS and 57 UNDERS. Here's the breakdown
for the year:
NFL DIVISION games have gone 23-13
O/U. They went 3-1 O/U last week... and are now on a current run of
7-2 O/U in the last two weeks.
AFC non-division conference games
have gone 11-13 O/U. That includes 4-10 O/U when the home team has
been favored... and 7-3 O/U when the road team has been favored. A
pattern might be emerging here. Home Fav = UNDER... Road Fav =
OVER. It that pattern continues this week, our first inclination
would be: Broncos @ Patriots OVER (road team is favored)... and
Chargers @ Dolphins UNDER, Jaguars @ Bengals UNDER, and Jets @
Chiefs UNDER (home team is favored).
NFC non-division conference games
have gone 13-14 O/U. They went 1-4 O/U last week (UNDER winners in:
Det vs Atl / TBay vs Min / Seat vs Car / Phil vs Ariz). These NFL
non-div conference games have gone 7-3 O/U in the last four weeks.
If that pattern continues, there could be HIGH-scoring results in
the following games: Redskins @ Vikings and Cardinals @
NFL non-conference games (AFC vs
NFC) have gone 17-17 O/U. Last week, these games went 1-1 O/U. The
Bears / Patriots game went OVER (Our 5* NFL GOM)... and the Chiefs
/ Rams game went UNDER. It's quite a change from last year at this
time when these non-conf games were already at 27-11 O/U.
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We will NOT go against a Chargers /
Dolphins SERIES which has gone a PERFECT 0-11 O/U in the last 11
meetings (only 33.7 combined PPG)! Both of these teams are also
ranked in the Top 7 in passing DEFENSE for the year... so there
should be a lot of rushing plays to grind out that clock. Miami
returns home off BB big road wins (27-14 vs Chi / 27-13 vs Jax)...
4-23 O/U s'1980: All home favs of < 7 pts off BB double-digit
road wins (Mia). Since 1992, these teams have gone 1-16
San Diego plays off a division road
loss vs Denver that went OVER last week... 1-9 O/U L5Y: All GAME 8
> underdogs of < 7 points off a SU division road loss that
went 'Over the Total' (Chargers).
The Chargers come in off 3-game ATS
losing streak... 0-7 O/U L5Y: All non-div road dogs of 10 < pts
off 3 or more ATS losses in a row (Chargers).. when the OU line is
44 < pts.
So the Chargers are on an ATS losing
streak, and Miami is on an ATS winning streak... 1-10 O/U L5Y: All
GAME 5 > home favs of < 9 pts off BB ATS wins (Mia) vs an opp
off BB ATS losses (Sd). At last look, Miami was a short 1-2
favorite in this one... 1-8 O/U L3Y: All AFC home favs of 3 <
pts off a SU win (Mia) vs a non-div AFC opponent (Sd). Final score
in SoFla: 20 to 17...