Talk about an OVER-whelming weekend! There were TWICE
as many Overs (10) as Unders (5) in NFL Week Six action. The
average OU line was 46.2 points. Average combined PPG was 48.0. The
two games with the highest OU lines (Chic @ Atl / Nyg @ Phil) both
went Under the Total. It was the games with a mid-to-high OU line
that were the highest scoring. NFL games with an OU line of 44 to
47 points went an almost perfect 10-1 O/U. One can argue that last
week could have actually went 5-10 O/U instead of 10-5 O/U. That's
because there were FIVE games that went from Under to Over in the
last three minutes of regulation play. Those games were: Den @
NYJ... GBay @ Mia... Dal @ Sea... Wash @ Ariz... and SF @ Stl
(Mon). I have NEVER seen a wilder weekend in terms of expected
Unders turning into miraculous Overs. Heck, there were THREE games
in which a last-second 'PICK 6' (with 55 seconds or less on the
clock) resulted in a game going Over (Broncos / Cardinals / 49ers).
I don't know about you, but I needed a couple of belts of tequila
to take the edge off this extremely wild weekend!
With the 10-5 O/U week, the year-to-date record in
the NFL now stands at 50 OVERS and 41 UNDERS. Here's the breakdown:
DIVISION games have gone 16-11 O/U.... AFC non-division conference
games have gone 9-9 O/U... NFC non-division conference games have
also gone 10-10 O/U... and non-conference games (AFC vs NFC) have
gone 15-11 O/U. It was very interesting to see ALL three of
the non-conference games going Over last week (GBay @ Mia / Car @
Cin / Bal @ TBay). These games have gone 10-5 O/U in the last four
weeks. Not quite the 75% Over percentage that hit last season in
these non-conference games. But it's defintely a OU pattern that we
need to keep our eyes on, especially with SIX more of these 'AFC vs
NFC' games on this week's schedule.
Let's wrap up with a look at the NFL PRIMETIME games.
Off a 2-1 O/U week, Pro Football games played at NIGHT (Thur night
/ Sun night / Mon night) ha
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