Oddsmakers try to be as consistent as possible when
setting the OU lines in the NFL every week. That consistency showed
up again last week. In fact, the average OU line last week was
EXACTLY the same as it was in Week One. Talk about KEY NUMBERS? You
got it! The 16 games in Week Two had an average OU line of 45.2....
the same average of the previous week. The RESULTS were a little
different though. After seeing Week One go 9-7 O/U, this past
week's games went 7-8-1 O/U (the one OU 'tie' was in the Texans /
Jaguars game). What is a little surprising is despite the fact that
there were more UNDERS than OVERS, the average points per game was
47.8. So the average game went OVER by +2.6. The reason for that?
The games that DID go 'Over' did so by a lot of points. We can
thank the 72 points scored in the NEng / Buf game... the 71 points
scored in the Arz/Chi game (YAY!)... and the 70 points scored in
the Oak/Bal game. Another interesting aspect was the results for
the games with the highest OU lines. If you got sucked in and
played the OVER in these games, you got burned really bad. The TOP
FIVE games with the highest OU lines ended up going a PERFECT 0-5 O/U. Those games were: Dallas /
Philly: 53 pts (final score 20-10)... Atlanta / NY Giants: 50 pts
(24-20)... Seattle / Green Bay: 49.5 pts (27-17)... San Diego /
Cincy: 48 pts (24-19)... and Tampa / New Orleans: 47 /
PRIMETIME update: Remember the good old days of last
season? You could pretty much 'bet' (pun intended) that a high
percentage of PRIMETIME games would go Over the Total. But not any
more. Like all patterns and tendencies, these numbers tend to come
back down to earth. After two weeks of this season, those PRIMETIME
games have now gone 2-5 O/U. It reminds me of that great 'OVER'
pattern of two seasons ago in non-conference (AFC vs NFC games).
Remember that great season? For a full year, those non-conf games
went OVER at a 75% clip. But it came back down to earth last
season. So what will be the new great 'OVER' pattern to emerge this
In this week's Game
Two, the average OU line has come down slightly... to an average of
44.8 points per game.There are NO Sunday games this week that
currently have a line of 48 or more points (there were four last
week). Here's you review of Week Three from the last six years. We
list the year... the average Week two OU line... the actual total
of combined points... the OU average margin... and the actual OU
results. This has obviously been the lowest scoring week in the
first four games of the season.
2014: 45.6 / 45.9 / +0.3 ppg / 9-7 O/U
2013: 45.1 / 46.3 / +2.2 ppg / 7-9 O/U
2012: 45.5 / 45.9 / +0.4 ppg / 6-10 O/U
2011: 44.3 / 40.3 / -4.0 ppg / 6-10 O/U
2010: 41.6 / 43.4 / +1.8 ppg / 9-7 O/U
2009: 42.6 / 39.4 / -3.2 ppg / 7-9 O/U
2-7 last week..terible-..and 23 dollar for pick...HA
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