Sunday, Jan. 21st 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
#315-316
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
2** Play on: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS plus the points
*Optimum OU line: +6.5 or higher
We are in disagreement with some of the other ‘cappers on this website. It looks like a majority of ‘em will be laying the points with the home fav LIONS on Sunday, as they host the BUCS in the Divisional Round. No disrespect intended, but the POINTS are the play. A very wise Mentor (Marc Lawrence) taught me a long time ago to almost ALWAYS take the underdog with the significantly better DEFENSE in a NFL game. Particularly in a PLAYOFF game. And in this case, we’re getting almost a FULL 7 points with that doggie. There’s no question that Tampa comes in with the better defense in this game. It’s been a long time since the Bucs allowed 27 or more points in a game. You have to go all the way back to mid November for that. But since then, the Bucs have allowed only 15.3 points per game on defense… including 9 and ZERO points in their last two. On the flip side, Detroit has totally collapsed in their defensive secondary as of late… allowing a whopping 412 yards per game in their last four overall.
With Tampa off a DOG win over Philly, our database tells us that: NFL Playoff teams off a Playoff home dog WIN have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 8 years (BUCCANEERS)…
Next up, a couple of queries were created for teams like the Bucs who are off back-to-back great defensive games in a row. 9-1 ATS since 2001: All NFL Playoff underdogs of > 3 pts who ALLOWED 10 < pts in each of their last two games (BUCCANEERS)…
11-1 ATS: All NFL Playoff teams who allowed LESS than 10 pts in a HOME Playoff game the previous week (BUCCANEERS)…
In Tampa’s big win over Philly last Monday, they covered the pointspread by +26 points. 5-0 ATS since 2003: All NFL Playoff underdogs off a Playoff ATS HOME WIN of 26 or more points (BUCCANEERS)…
This is a division that has been a great DOG in the postseason. In the last 6 years, NFC SOUTH DIVISION Playoff underdogs of +3 > pts (BUCCANEERS) have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS…
Last week, Detroit barely squeaked by the LA Rams (24-23). They were home favs of -3 points but did not cover the pointspread. 1-8-1 ATS since 1986: All NFL Playoff favorites of -5 > pts off a Playoff home win BUT an ATS loss (Lions).
1-11 ATS since 2015: All NFL Playoff NON-DIVISION home favorites of > 3 and < 10 pts (Lions) off an ATS loss in their last game.
Sealing the DEAL: How have DOME teams done in the post-season as of late when favored at home? I’m glad you asked! 1-11-1 ATS last 7 years: All NFL Playoff INDOOR (Dome) home favorites of -10 or less points (Lions vs BUCS).