Saturday, Jan. 20th 8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT
#303-304
NFL Playoffs / Division Round
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
2** Play on: UNDER THE TOTAL
Last week, we had a 3*** Best Bet on the OVER in the Wild Card game featuring the Packers and Dallas Cowboys. The OU line in that one closed at 52.0 points, and the final score was 48 to 32. That means 80 combined total points were scored and we cashed an easy winner by +28.0 points! With that said, a LOT of squares will be jumping on yet another Packers OVER this week as they travel to the Bay Area to take on the host 49ers. I don’t blame ‘em… but we’re not buying into that ‘knee-jerk’ reaction. Based on last week’s numbers (and San Fran’s last game result), our database is telling us to GO THE OTHER WAY this week (as in UNDER). As far as the line goes, this one opened at 50.5 points. I would advise sharp OU bettors to track the move, and then make a play when the line gets to 51.0 or 51.5 (as 51 is a KEY totals number).
So our first query looks at teams like the Packers who just put up a TON of points on the Playoff road (scored 48 points at Dallas last week). The database is telling us that this a a PERFECT place for us to start. 0-10 O/U since 1996: All NFL PLAYOFF teams off a Playoff road win in which they SCORED 35 or more points (Packers vs Niners)…
Obviously, the Packers were a DOG in that road win last week. 5-17 O/U since 2017 / 0-7 O/U last 2 years: All All NFL PLAYOFF teams off a Playoff road DOG win (Packers vs Niners)…
As mentioned above, the final score of that Green Bay-Dallas game last week was 48 to 32. 3-10 O/U since 1993: All NFL PLAYOFF teams off a Playoff win in which they scored AND allowed 32 or more points (Packers vs Cowboys)…
So Green Bay comes in as a dog off 3 SU and ATS wins in a row. 0-6 O/U last of years: All NFL PLAYOFF underdogs off 3 or more SUATS wins (Packers vs Niners), when the OU line is in the range of > 40.0 and < 52.0 points…
On the flip side, the host Niners are off a home LOSS to the LA Rams in their last game of the regular season. 0-14 O/U since 2016: All NFL PLAYOFF teams off a SU and ATS home LOSS in their last game (Niners vs Packers)…
With San Francisco a WEST DIVISION team, I also ran a database query for any OU tendencies when these teams are playing the role of Playoff hosts. 7-20-1 O/U since 2014 / 1-7 O/U last 2 years: All NFL Playoff WEST DIVISION (AFC West or NFL West) home teams when the OU line is in the range of > 42.0 and < 53.0 points (Niners vs Packers)…
Saturday Playoff games have been slightly LOWER-scoring then their Sunday counterparts. 2-12-1 O/U since 2016 / 0-7-1 O/U last 4 years: All NFL PLAYOFF home favorites of -13 < pts on SATURDAYS, when the OU line is 45.0 or higher (Niners vs Packers).