Sunday, Jan. 21st 6:30pm ET / 3:30pm PT
#317-318
NFL Playoffs / Division Round
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BUFFALO BILLS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 45.0 or less points
It’s 3*** BEST BET time for our handicapping service in the Division Round of the 2024 NFL Playoffs. With a nice and relatively LOW OU line, we’ve certainly got enough ‘OU ammo’ from our postseason database to justify a Best Bet. The fact that this game will be playing IN Buffalo might score some OU bettors off, but not us. In fact, if this game were in Kansas City… we might just go the other way (as in Under) or at the very least: pass. That’s because Kansas City’s HOT ‘Under’ streak (#1 Under team TY) has basically occurred at HOME.. while Buffalo’s best Under results have been win the road. But switch the site around, and we’re All In. NUMBERS DON’T LIE: While Kansas City has gone 9-22 O/U in their last 31 HOME games, the story has been significantly different in the role of visitor. Kansas City’s ROAD games have gone 20-11-1 O/U in the last four years, including 10-2 when the OU line in these game is 50 or or less points. Not only that, but in the very recent and RARE role as an UNDERDOG, Kansas City has gone 13-2 O/U since 2016 when the OU line is 50.0 or less. On the flip side, BUFFALO has averaged 30.0 ppg at home this year… 28.0 last year… 30.0 three years ago… and 31.1 four years ago. And check out the postseason: The BILLS have gone 21-12 OU in All PLAYOFF games over the last ten years. That includes 5-1 O/U in the last three years. Also 10-1 O/U as Playoff FAVS when the OU line is 48.0 or less points. As mentioned in sentence #2, the OU line for this one is RELATIVELY LOW. In fact, its the lowest OU line in the last seven meetings of this CHIEFS / BILLS series. That gives us TREMENDOUS value on the OVER. KC vs BUF last 7 games: Avg OU line: 52.9… Avg combined points: 55.8… Avg OU margin: +2.9 ppg. With that covered, let’s dive into the database to uncover the many situations that are all pointing to the OVER:
13-1 O/U since 2007: All PLAYOFF teams off a Playoff win in which they ALLOWED 10 or less points (CHIEFS last week), when the OU line is in the range of 38.0 to 52.0 points…
18-3 O/U since 2003: All PLAYOFF teams off a Playoff win in which they ALLOWED 7 or less points (CHIEFS)…
13-3 O/U since 2011: All PLAYOFF home favorites when BOTH teams allowed 17 or less points in their last game (BILLS vs CHIEFS)…
9-1 O/U since 2010: All PLAYOFF underdogs off a Playoff home WIN of 18 > pts (CHIEFS won 26-7 last week), when the OU line is in the range of > 37.0 and < 57.0 points…
12-1 O/U since 2002: All PLAYOFF teams off a SUATS Playoff home win AND an ‘Under’ in a game in which they are favored by < 6 pts (CHIEFS)…
26-8-1 O/U since 1981 / 13-3 O/U since 1999: All PLAYOFF home teams off a Playoff home win of 14 > pts that went ‘Over the Total’ (BILLS)…
12-2 O/U since 2012: All PLAYOFF home favorites when BOTH teams are off a SU and ATS Playoff HOME win (BILLS and CHIEFS). The numbers improve to 9-1 O/U (90% OVER) for AFC home teams (BILLS)…
12-2 O/U since 2011: All PLAYOFF home favorites off -2 > pts off 5 or more SU WINS in a row (BUFFALO), when the OU line is 47.0 or less points…
9-1 O/U since 2019: All AFC Conference PLAYOFF home favorites of > 1 point on SUNDAYS when the OU line is 53.0 or less points (BUFFALO vs KANSAS CITY)…
8-1 O/U last 4 years: All AFC Conference PLAYOFF GAMES when the OU line is 48.0 or less points (BUFFALO vs KANSAS CITY)…