Sunday, February 11, 2024 6:30pm ET / 3:30pm PT / #101-102
SUPER BOWL LVIII
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
3*** Play on: OVER the TOTAL in the FIRST-HALF (Optimum line: 23.5 or less)…
There you have it. Our THREE Plays for Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. Grabbing the points with the dog… Playing the OVER in the 1st half… and also playing the OVER for the full game. And based on our numbers from the database, our STRONGEST rated play is actually that FIRST-HALF Total. At 3***, we’ll rate it slightly higher than the other two plays (2* each on the full game SIDE and TOTAL). Obviously, most of our queries from the database cover the full-game Side and Total. But wheat we have learned from this last seasons (AND the post-season) is the following: If you are betting a FULL-GAME ‘Over the Total’… then a sharp bettor MUST also bet the first-half of that game OVER the Total as well. And in most cases, we should actually bet MORE %%% on that first-half OVER then in the full-game OVER. Before we get to the smaller 2** Plays let’s run through some of the most recent examples when it comes to first-half and second-half TOTALS.
Like the AFC Championship game of two weeks ago. The Chiefs and Ravens went OVER in the first half as 24 total points were scored, yet UNDER in the 2nd half when only THREE total points were scored. This has basically been what has transpired at a very high-percentage ALL SEASON long in the NFL. High-scoring first halves versus extremely low-scoring second-halves. All sharp bettors are already painful aware that the CHIEFS were the league’s BEST ‘Under’ team in the 2ND HALF this season (they went an unreal 2-17 O/U!). So let’s look at these Super Bowl teams and their most recent 1ST half and 2ND half combined scoring as of late (separated by a /). We’ll work our way backward from each team’s most recent game.
KANSAS CITY: 24 pts / only 3 pts vs Baltimore… 30 pts / 21 pts vs Buffalo… 23 pts / 10 pts vs Miami… 16 pts / 9 pts vs LA Chargers… 30 pts / 12 pts vs Bengals…
SAN FRANCISCO: 31 pts / 34 pts vs Detroit… 13 pts / 32 pts vs Detroit… 27 pts / 14 pts vs LA Rams… 23 pts / 14 pts vs Washington… 28 pts / 24 pts vs Ravens.
So in the last five games, KC is averaging 24.8 in the 1st half and only 11.0 in the 2nd half. SF is averaging 24.8 in the 1st half and 22.6 in the 2nd half.
More reasons to play the OVER in the first half: The CHIEFS are now on a run that dates back to the 1991 season. They are the first team in 32 years to have scored POINTS in EVERY first drive of their last eight Playoff games. So perhaps we should also consider their OVER in the first quarter as well! Remember, KC has been a dynamic UNDER Team at HOME in the last 4-5 years (2-17 O/U in the last 2 years!)… but they’ve still been a 60%+ OVER team when playing on the ROAD.