Sunday, Jan. 28th / 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT #319-320
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
3*** Best Bet on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 44.0 or less
Last week, our Playoff GOY was on the OVER in the KC Chiefs / BUF Bills game. After cashing that Best Bet, we’re going right BACK to the visiting CHIEFS as they take to the road in the AFC Championship game against the BALTIMORE RAVENS. We can’t rate this one quite a high as last week’s GOY, but there’s still enough material and database situations to warrant a 3*** Best Bet. If you can find a line of 44.0. I would jump on this one as SOON as possible. At the very least, make sure your line is 44.5 or less points.
\When we’re on an OVER, we want / need to have the confidence of not one but TWO teams in top-notch offensive form. And we’re definitely getting that in the AFC Championship. It’s pretty much taken a full season, but the Chiefs are finally where they should be. And that’s EXPLOSIVE on offense. Last week, they were so good against the Bills that they only had 5 total 3rd down plays. On FIRST and SECOND down, they averaged a whopping 8.7 yards per play. And they had EIGHT plays on offense that were considered ‘explosive’ (an explosive play is a reception for 30 or more yards). On the flip side, Baltimore’s 24-point second half against the Houston Texans puts their offense in prime ‘play on’ territory as well. The Ravens have averaged 29 ppg on the season, including 32.1 at HOME. And they have DOMINATED on offense in each of their last three games vs Playoff-caliber teams. That would be 30 or more points in their WINS over San Francisco (52 total points), Miami (75 total points), and Houston. This Baltimore offense is just too good and too multiple to truly be slowed down.
SERIES HISTORY: The recent OU tendencies in this Baltimore / Kansas City SERIES definitely warrant a bet on the OVER. Since the 2015 season, the Ravens and Chiefs have gone 4-1 O/U in the last 5 meetings vs each other (48 pts, 51 pts, 61 pts, 54 pts, and 71 pts = 57.0 combined PPG!). The Chiefs and Raves have played four games vs each other with current QBS Mahomes and Jackson at the helm. #1: Dec. 18th, 2018 / KC 27 - BALT 24 at Arrowhead Stadium (Mahomes 35-53 for 377 yards)… #2: Sept. 22, 2019 / KC 33 - BALT 28 at Arrowhead Stadium (Mahomes 374 passing yards and 3 TD’s)… #3: Sept. 28, 2020 / KC 34 - BALT 20 in Baltimore (Mahomes 385 passing yards and 4 TD’s)… and #4: Sept. 19th, 2021 / BALT 36 - KC 35.
HOME / ROAD ‘splits’: As we mentioned in last week’s Best Bet: If the roles were reversed in this one (KC at home / Balt on the road), we would probably be on the UNDER. That’s because KC’s best UNDER results have been at HOME over the last 5 years while Baltimore’s best UNDER results have been on the ROAD. But this week’s AFC Championship will be at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. Yes, we might get some rain… but we won’t let that get to us. And besides, KANSAS CITY has gone 22-7-1 O/U in the last 7 years in ALL road games when the OU line is 50.0 or less points. That includes 12-2 O/U in the last 4 years (86% Overs). Baltimore has gone 6-1 O/U at HOME since October in all games with an OU line of 35 > pts (and a perfect 6-0 O/U when Lamar Jackson starts).
DAY vs NIGHT Playoff ‘splits’: Here’s a weird and unique element to the 2024 postseason that you are probably not aware of. Since I do the research for our OU publication (Playbook Totals Tipsheet), I’ve been keeping tabs on the day / night ‘OU splits’ all season long. In the five 2024 NFL Playoff games that started in the NIGHTTIME, the OU record for those games has been 1-4 O/U (OU margin -3.2 ppg). But in the 2024 NFL Playoff games that started in the DAYTIME (like this one), the results have already been a PERFECT 5-0 O/U. Those games: Browns @ Texans, Packers @ Cowboys, and Steelers @ Bills (Wild Card)… and Texans @ Ravens + Bucs @ Lions. Avg OU line in these DAYTIME games: 45.9… Avg combined pts: 57.0… Avg OU margin: +12.9 ppg. There’s only ONE way to go!
Our FAVORITE ‘OVER’ situation: I’ve been tracking these games in our database for about 7-8 years now. We almost ALWAYS love betting the OVER in any game (regular or post season) involving very good teams when the OUY line is in the reasonable range. And here we go again. Check out the results in a decent sample size. 46-17-1 O/U since 2017 (73% OVERS): All NFL games (a) involving TWO teams with .666 or better W/L records… (b) when the home team is favored… and (c) when the OU line is LESS than (<) 48.0 points. This season alive, those games have gone 9-2 OI/U (78% Over)… and the exact same criteria fits this AFC Championship game as well.
SEALING the Deal with the DATABASE:
#1: All AFC PLAYOFF GAMES have gone 10-1 O/U in the last 4 years when the OU line is 48.0 or less points (CHIEFS @ RAVENS)…
#1A: The AFC CHAMPIONSHIP has gone 6-1 O/U since 2005 when the OU line is 48.0 or less points (CHIEFS @ RAVENS)…
#3: 7-1 O/U since 2018: All PLAYOFF home favorites of > 2 pts when BOTH teams (RAVENS + CHIEFS) are off a Playoff game in which they scored 27 or more points…
#4: 7-1 O/U since 2017: All PLAYOFF teams off a Playoff home WIN of 24 or more points (RAVENS won 34-10 last week)…
#5: 12-2 O/U since 1985 / 7-1 O/U since 2000: All PLAYOFF teams off a Playoff ‘OVER’ in which they ALLOWED 10 or less points (RAVENS), when the OU line is > 38.0 points…