When it comes to handicapping, I'm a numbers guy... a stats guy... and a DATABASE guy. If you're not using a current database, then you're throwing darts. Databases don't lie. And there are no bias in a database either. Sports betting is just like life in that history aways repeats itself. Pro or College teams in similar situations tend to follow similar SU and ATS patterns that occurred in the past. Examples: Teams off a big-time home REVENGE division win tend to come out flat the next week, and are ripe for a letdown. Teams off a big underdog win are ripe for a letdown the next week when laying points. Teams off an unexpected FAVORITE loss are great 'Play on' teams the following week when catching points as an underdog. Unless you have a database that you can query on a weekly basis, then you'll be missing out on valuable money-making opportunities. So I'm 'All about the numbers' when it comes to handicapping.
Since we're talking numbers, tendencies, and patterns... here's some text and data that I recently wrote about that pertain to the upcoming NFL pre-season:
Best Home ‘OVER’ teams - All four of the teams that we will highlight here went a PERFECT 2-0 O/U at home last season! Over the last six years in NFL ‘X’ play, the best OVER team at home by far has been the OAKLAND RAIDERS. They’ve gone 11-1 O/U (92% Overs) at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum in the last six seasons. Average OU line: 37.8. Average total points: 47.8. Nice margins too! The average Bronco home game has gone OVER by double digits (+10.0 ppg). Last year’s home games saw 53 and 72 points scored!
Right behind them at the #2 spot is a tie between the CAROLINA PANTHERS (6-1 O/U) and the CLEVELAND BROWNS (6-1-1 O/U). Carolina home games have averaged 41.0 ppg in this four-year time span, and the Panthers also went 2-0 O/U at home last year. For the Brownies, their home games have averaged slightly higher… at 44.5 ppg in the same four-year time span. And in the 2014 season, BOTH Cleveland home games went Over the Total (46 and 47 combined points in those two games).
The final team in our Top 4 list of great home ‘OVER’ teams is the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. Dating all the way back to the 2008 preseason, Eagle home games have gone 11-3 O/U (79% Overs). The average combined points in these games have been 43.4. And just like the previous three ‘Over KINGS’, the Eagles went a perfect 2-0 O/U at home last season. Those two games saw a combined 52 and 44 points scored.
Honorable mention: HOUSTON: 6-2-1 O/U last five years (42.9 ppg)… NEW ENGLAND: 8-3 O/U last six years (49.6)… GREEN BAY: 8-3 O/U last six years (44.4 / 2-0 O/U last year)... NEW ORLEANS: 7-3 O/U last five years (46.3).
Best Home ‘UNDER’ teams - We talk about this team every year. And there’s one NFL team in which you NEVER want to go ‘Over the Total’ when they are playing at home. That would be the MIAMI DOLPHINS. In the last five seasons, Miami has gone UNDER the Total 88% of the time in their pre-season home games down here in HOT South Florida (1-8-1 O/U). Average OU line: 37.6. Average combined points: just 29.5 ppg. That means the average Dolphin home game has gone UNDER by more than a touchdown (-8.1 ppg). I’m sure that the heat and humidity in the month of August down here in South Florida has a lot to do with these consistent low-scoring results. Last year, Miami’s home games went 0-1-1 O/U.
Next up is a tie between the ARIZONA CARDINALS and the NEW YORK GIANTS. Both of these NFC teams check in with a record of 1-6 O/U in the last four pre-seasons (86% Unders). And BOTH teams went a perfect 0-2 O/U at home last year. Arizona home games have seen an average 33.4 points per game. Last year’s two Cardinal ‘homies’ saw 32 and 33 points scored. For the Giants, their numbers are even lower. The G-Men have seen an average of only 29.7 combined ppg in their home games in this same four-year time frame. Last year’s home games for New York tallied only 36 and 29 total points.
Our fourth solid UNDER team at home is the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS. Their home games have gone 2-7-1 O/U (78% Unders) over the last five years. Average combined points per game has been just 30.0. The Niners are yet ANOTHER team that also went a perfect 0-2 O/U at home last year (28 + 34 total points scored). So if you wagered UNDER the Total in Miami, Arizona, NY Giants, and San Francisco home games last year… you would have gone a perfect 7-0-1!
Honorable mention: PITTSBURGH (5-13 O/U last nine years)… WASHINGTON (5-12 O/U last eight years).
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