The Denver Nuggets, on the brink of a historic moment and their first NBA Championship, head into Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals as a formidable force on their home court. The betting market for Game 5 opened with the Nuggets installed as impressive 9-point home favorites, mirroring the closing line between these teams in Game 1, when the Heat were in a known difficult betting spot. This line puts Denver in the biggest favorite role they have been in since their Game 5 clash with the Timberwolves in Round 1, indicating the market's increasing faith in Denver's capability to cinch the series at 4-1.

Game 5 Spread, Total

Miami Heat +9 @ Denver Nuggets

Over/Under 208.5

For Monday night's Game 5, the total has been pinned at Over/Under 208.5, signifying a continued decline in the series total after Game 4 concluded with a score 8-points Under the total. The unusually slow pace of this series is rapidly emerging as a distinguishing characteristic, with the teams averaging a mere 89.2 possessions per game - the slowest pace in the Finals since 2014. Intriguingly, the Heat, despite being down, have managed an 8-7 SU record this season when they are seen as 7-points-or-greater underdogs, covering 11 of those 15 games (73.3% ATS). This stat brings up the possibility that Miami could feasibly exceed betting predictions.

Miami's offensive struggles, however, could pose a considerable hurdle in achieving that.  The Heat are holding Denver eight points per game below their season average, but still face a 3-1 deficit due to their own floundering offense.

The Heat's 3-point shooting, which has been erratic, made only 8 out of 25 attempts on Friday. To defeat Boston, the Heat shot 43.4 percent and 45 percent against Milwaukee. Against Denver, however, they're shooting just 33 percent. This slump in shooting accuracy will be difficult to overcome without generating better looks.

Pivotal moments have also slipped away from Miami. With a chance to close Denver's lead to four points with seven minutes left, Bam Adebayo failed to attack the basket against Jeff Green, missing a 12-foot shot.

Then there is Jimmy Butler, whose recent postseason performances seem a far cry from his remarkable 56- or 48-point performances against Milwaukee,  Butler missed an opportunity to reduce Denver’s lead to five points. Instead, the ball was stripped away, leading to a Denver lay-up. The Nuggets capitalized on these turnovers, scoring 17 points from Miami's 15 turnovers.

Further exacerbating the Heat's offensive issues, the starting backcourt of Max Strus and Gabe Vincent combined for a meager two points on 1-of-10 shooting in Friday's game, following a 3-of-17 shooting performance in Game 3. Evidently, their contribution has been significantly underwhelming.

In light of the challenges, Miami's head coach Erik Spoelstra remains optimistic about their chances. The coach emphasized his belief in his team's competitiveness and their ability to extend the series to Game 6 in Miami following the Heat's 108-95 defeat on Friday.

"All we're focused on -- I told the guys, feel whatever you want to feel tonight. It's fine. You probably shouldn't sleep tonight any amount of time. I don't think anybody will," Spoelstra said, reflecting the intensity of the situation. "We have an incredibly competitive group. We've done everything the hard way, and that's the way it's going to have to be done right now, again. All we are going to focus on is getting this thing back to the 305. Get this thing back to Miami. And things can shift very quickly."

Given this expected intensity from the Heat and the consistent high defensive pressure displayed in the series so far, the betting market is seemingly anticipating another methodically paced game with a lower combined score.

The moneyline for Game 5 stands at Denver -410, Miami +320, which suggests over a 78% chance that the Nuggets will seize the victory and, consequently, the title on Monday night. Additionally, the Series Price infers an astounding 97% chance for Denver at -6000, leaving Miami trailing at +2400.

Updated Series Price

Denver Nuggets -6000

Miami Heat +2400

Having opened this series at -400, the Nuggets now stand at a staggering -6000, following their significant 3-games-to-1 lead over the Heat. This stark increase in odds symbolizes a 97% probability that Denver will seize their maiden title, according to betting odds. Supporters of the Heat banking on Jimmy Butler's vow of achieving the "hardest of the hard" - triumphing over the Nuggets in three consecutive games - would be cheering for a significant upset.

One of the defining features of this series has been the Nuggets' ability to rally around their stars, with multiple players stepping up to the plate. This was apparent more than ever in Game 4, where the team had to adjust quickly to the subpar performances from their star players Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, who scored considerably fewer points than expected.

However, Bruce Brown, dubbed as the 'game-changer' for the Nuggets, took the challenge head-on. Particularly critical in Game 4, Brown stepped up impressively when Jokic was forced to exit in the fourth quarter due to foul trouble, delivering a vital 21 points off the bench, 11 of those scored in the crucial final quarter.

"What can Brown do for the Denver Nuggets? He has them one win away from their first championship in franchise history," remarked Stephen Whyno, AP Sports Writer, highlighting the essential role Brown played in the Nuggets' 108-95 victory over the Miami Heat in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

Understanding that the Heat would aim to neutralize Jamal Murray, Brown was assertive and made his presence felt on the court. “The other four players were going to have to make plays,” Brown said. “Luckily, it was just my time.” And indeed it was. Shooting 4 of 5 from the field, Brown's 11 points in the fourth quarter played a crucial role in repelling the Heat, especially in Jokic's absence.

“Bruce Brown in the fourth quarter was amazing,” said coach Michael Malone. “They were giving Jamal so much attention that, let’s get Jamal off the ball, let Bruce make some plays. He was aggressive, got to the basket, made shots and tonight was an impressive performance.”

Additionally, this was not the first time an unheralded Nuggets player proved instrumental in securing a win. In Game 3, rookie Christian Braun (whose last name, incidentally, is also pronounced "Brown") delivered a key performance with 15 points, further underlining the Nuggets' team depth and versatility that could well lead them to their first-ever championship.

Game 5 Player Props

We now turn our attention to the key players from both teams and their individual expectations.

Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets' pivotal player, has been given an Over/Under of 29.5 points (Ov-120) for Game 5. Despite Jokic scoring only 23 points in Game 4, the betting market anticipates a potential bounce back. The projection is similar to that of the previous game, considering the factors influencing his performance.

Initially set at 30.5 for Game 4, the Over/Under for Jokic saw a rush of bets on the Under before the tipoff, bringing it down to 29.5, albeit juiced to the over. This is exactly where it has reopened for Game 5. In Game 4, Jokic scored 23 points in his first 25 minutes, but only attempted three shots and failed to score in his final 12 minutes of game action. Jokic also missed five minutes in the fourth quarter after coach Mike Malone chose to preserve him after he picked up his fifth foul.

Considering the high stakes - with the potential for this to be the last Nuggets game this season - many bettors expect a more assertive Jokic in Game 5. Thus, the Over/Under stands at 29.5 points, with a slight inclination towards the over (Ov-120)

Turning our attention to Miami Heat's Jimmy Butler, the betting market has set his Game 5 Over/Under at 27.5 points (Ov-110), representing a 1-point increase from the previous game. Even though Butler scored 25 points in Game 4, his tapered performance in the second half raised some questions about his scoring capacity in the upcoming game. After 14 points in the first half of Game 4, Butler scored just 11 in the second half and struggled to generate offense against the Nuggets' defense despite playing all 24 minutes after the break.

Interestingly, Denver's Jamal Murray has been beating expectations in assists, going Over his assist prop in all four games of the Finals. He holds the distinction of being the first player in Finals history to record ten assists in his first three Finals games, a record he extended in Game 4.

Looking at the Heat’s projected second-highest scorer, expectations for Miami's Bam Adebayo have been lowered to Over/Under 19.5 points, in light of his subpar shooting performance in two consecutive games.

Game 5 Outlook

As we look ahead, it is crucial to note that the Nuggets have been incredible in closing out series this postseason, with a perfect 3-0 record when they can eliminate an opponent. The Heat, on the other hand, are facing elimination for the second time this postseason after dominating the Celtics in Boston to win Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The historical trends favor the Nuggets, but as always in sports, anything can happen.

In this role as a 9-point or greater favorite, the Nuggets are 18-6 straight up (SU), this season, although they are only 10-13-1 against the spread (ATS).

When wagering on Game 5, one may also want to keep these stats in mind: the Heat are 11-5 ATS (9-7 SU) in their last sixteen games as underdogs in these playoffs. Also, the Under has hit in four of the last five games in this series. It could prove to be a tight game if the Heat can keep up their defensive intensity, but the betting markets clearly favor the Nuggets to seize the championship.

In the race for the Bill Russell Finals MVP award, Denver's Nikola Jokic leads the pack with odds heavily stacked at -5,000. The Nuggets' Jamal Murray and the Heat's Jimmy Butler trail significantly at 30/1 odds each. As these odds align neatly with Denver's strong position to clinch the series, anticipation builds for an exciting Game 5 where individual glory and team triumph intertwine.

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Related: Game 4 Betting Report, Game 3 Betting Report, NBA Finals 2023: Game 2 - Four Players' Props That Could Define the Outcome, 2023 NBA Finals Preview

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