In an exhilarating culmination to the 2023 NBA season, the top-seeded Denver Nuggets will face the resilient Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. This distinctive face-off pits a top-seeded powerhouse against an exceptional underdog that last month had to survive two games in the Play-In Tournament to make the final 16-team bracket.
Denver, with consensus odds of -400 to win the series, are the biggest favorites entering an NBA Finals since the 2018 Golden State Warriors. They take on a resurgent Miami squad that has fought tooth and nail to reach this stage. Despite vastly different playoff journeys, both teams have showcased their tenacity and skill, setting the stage for a thrilling championship series. This comprehensive NBA Finals Preview provides an in-depth analysis of the two teams, their key players, and the factors that will determine the outcome of the much-anticipated showdown.
How We Got Here: Miami Heat
Diving deeper into the journey of both teams, we witness two compelling narratives. On one hand, the Miami Heat, led by the relentless Jimmy Butler, returned with a vengeance after a devastating Game 7 loss to the Boston Celtics in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals. With a vow to not just return, but to triumph, Butler's performance in the decisive 103-84 victory over Boston was nothing short of spectacular, contributing 28 points, seven rebounds, six assists and 3 game-changing steals in a grueling 43 minutes. Butler’s performance throughout the series earned him the Larry Bird Trophy as the Eastern Conference Finals MVP.
The Heat’s journey was punctuated by strong contributions from Caleb Martin, who delivered a crucial 26-point, 10-rebound performance, aiding the Heat's ascension to the NBA Finals. Martin, who averaged 19 Points Per Game on better than 60% Field Goal shooting during the Eastern Conference Finals, earned 4 of 9 votes to win the Larry Bird trophy himself.
The Heat became only the second No. 8 seed to do make the Finals, following in the footsteps of the 1999 New York Knicks. The Heat’s gritty run included toppling mighty opponents such as the Bucks and Celtics and a stunning late-game comeback against the Chicago Bulls in the Play-In Tournament. With 3:03 remaining in that game vs. the Bulls, Miami trailed by 3 and at that point was an underdog to win the game and make the playoffs, let alone three consecutive series afterward to earn their 7th trip as a franchise to basketball’s biggest stage.
How We Got Here: Denver Nuggets
On the other hand, the Denver Nuggets etched their name in history, marking their first-ever NBA Finals appearance. This Western Conference powerhouse faced and overcame significant obstacles, including duels with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in the semifinals and the star-studded duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis for the West's crown.
Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra faces a daunting task: devising a strategy that Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis couldn't execute - stopping The Joker. Jokic, supported by the likes of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., dominated throughout these playoffs, achieving historic numbers. Even Draymond Green, following the Warriors' victory over the Nuggets last year, compared guarding Jokic in the playoffs to attempting to guard LeBron James in the heyday of their NBA Finals battles. Four more wins, and Jokic's unwavering focus might just lead Denver to their first NBA championship, marking an incredible run of dominance for the Joker. If successful, Jokic would secure his place among a prestigious roster of all-time basketball greats who have won at least two MVPs and one championship over a three-year timespan. This illustrious list includes a who’s-who of NBA legends, names such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Steph Curry, LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Moses Malone, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, and Bill Russell.
Head-to-Head Comparison: Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Both the Nuggets and Heat have demonstrated their prowess throughout the regular season and playoffs. However, the head-to-head record indicates a slight advantage for the Nuggets, who won both of their regular-season matchups. Here's a brief overview of their season stats:
Regular Season Record:
- Denver Nuggets: 53-29 (Ranked #1 in West)
- Miami Heat: 44-38 (Ranked #8 in East)
Odds to Win Series:
- Denver Nuggets: -400 (Opening odds: -360)
- Miami Heat: +330 (Opening odds: +280)
Head-to-Head Record:
- Denver Nuggets: 2
- Miami Heat: 0
Net Rating (Point Differential Per 200 Possessions):
- Denver Nuggets: +3.8 (Ranked 5th in Regular Season), +9.2. (Ranked 1st in Playoffs)
- Miami Heat: -0.1 (Ranked 20th in Regular Season), +3.4. (Ranked 2nd in Playoffs)
Offensive Rating (Points Scored Per 100 Possessions):
- Denver Nuggets: 118.3 (Ranked 5th in Regular Season), 121.7 (Ranked 1st in Playoffs)
- Miami Heat: 113.3 (Ranked 25th in Regular Season), 115.6 (Ranked 8th in Playoffs)
Defensive Rating (Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions):
- Denver Nuggets: 114.6 (Ranked 17th in Regular Season), 112.5 (Ranked 9th in Playoffs)
- Miami Heat: 113.4 (Ranked 7th in Regular Season), 115.6 (Ranked 8th in Playoffs)
Notably, the Nuggets have improved on both their offensive & defensive ratings in the playoffs compared to their regular season numbers.
Regular Season Matchups
On December 30th, the Nuggets triumphed over Miami 124-119, cashing just barely for their backers as -4.5-point favorites. The spread movement since then underscores the dominance Denver has exhibited this season. Against the same team in the same venue, Denver is now an 8.5-point favorite hosting Miami in Game 1, a net upgrade of 4 points. Considering some sportsbooks opened at Denver only -6, some of that movement in the spread may be be attributed to the fatigue factor for the Heat, who travel to Denver after an energy-sapping Game 7. Historical data reveals that since 2002, teams like the Heat coming off a Game 7 against a team with more rest (i.e. not off of a Game 7) are only 19-31-1 (38%) against the spread.
The Nuggets also prevailed in their February matchup, winning & covering as 1-point underdogs 112-108 in Miami. Jokic’s dominance was apparent in both matchups, with the Serbian averaging 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists while shooting an incredible 70% from the field. The Nuggets have also maintained a winning streak, having won & covered their last six matchups vs. the Heat dating back to the 2020-2021 season.
Series Price Movement
Bettors have come in on Denver. The Nuggets opened as -360 favorites, but this quickly escalated to -400, as per a consensus of five sportsbooks on Pregame.com. This shift underscores the overwhelming confidence bettors have in the Nuggets, who have posted a league-best +9.2 Net Rating per 100 possessions in these playoffs, using garbage-time-adjusted metrics from CleaningTheGlass.com. By comparison, the Heat, who are second in this metric, have posted a +3.4 Net Rating in these playoffs, followed by the Celtics at +3 and the LA Lakers at +2. Using these metrics you could argue the Nuggets have been roughly three times more efficient than any other teams in the playoffs.
Betting Market for the 2023 Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award
Turning to the MVP race, leading the pack are Denver's Nikola Jokic and the Heat's Jimmy Butler, with odds of -320 and +330 respectively, followed by the Nuggets' Jamal Murray at 12 to 1. Miami's Caleb Martin and Bam Adebayo round out the top contenders at 50 to 1 and 55 to 1 respectively.
Odds for the 2023 NBA Finals MVP
DEN C, Nikola Jokic: -320
MIA F, Jimmy Butler: +330
DEN G, Jamal Murray: 12 to 1
MIA G, Caleb Martin: 50 to 1
MIA C, Bam Adebayo: 55 to 1
DEN F, Michael Porter Jr.: 100 to 1
DEN F, Aaron Gordon: 200 to 1
Game 1 Spread & Total: Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets
For Game 1, the Nuggets are favored by 8.5 -points, reflecting their recent dominance. The total for the game has been set at 219, slightly lower than the average combined points per game for these teams in this season's playoffs. This total may be influenced by the teams' regular-season clashes, which saw them scoring an average combined total of 231.5 points, notably higher than the average total of 221.
The lower total than their regular season match-ups may be expected. As has been the case historically, the NBA playoffs this season has meant more defensive intensity when compared to the regular season. In the playoffs this season, NBA teams have averaged 220.0 combined points in the post-season vs.229.4 combined points on average in the regular season.
Nuggets Potential Rest Advantage:
A unique turn of events means that the Nuggets will have been off for 10 days by the time Game 1 tips off at Ball Arena. This lengthy break before the Finals has only occurred three other times in the past two decades, with the 2013 San Antonio Spurs and the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2019 also enjoying 10-day breaks after sweeping their respective Conference Finals series. Historically, these extremely well-rested teams have kicked off their Finals campaigns well, going 2-1 SU & ATS in the opening game.
Interestingly, the Nuggets' extended rest period comes as a result of the Boston Celtics' dramatic comeback from a 3-0 deficit against Miami to force a Game 7. This puts Denver at a seven-day rest advantage over Miami. Nuggets coach Michael Malone, however, is cautious about this perceived advantage. Expressing concerns over the team's rhythm and conditioning, Malone emphasized the need to maintain their intensity during the break.
"For us, my biggest concern is the rhythm but more importantly conditioning," Malone told reporters on Friday at the Nuggets’ first practice since their sweep of the Lakers
Teams with at least a five-day rest advantage heading into the Finals have gone 10-6 SU (.625) in the opening game, an auspicious sign for Denver, especially since teams with such rest advantages playing at home in Game 1 of the Finals are 8-1 SU (.889). As noted by ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, the one road team to buck this trend with far less rest, was the 1998 “Last Dance” Chicago Bulls.
Battle of the Stars
The limelight is shared by two players who have been key in their teams' successful campaigns: Denver's Nikola Jokic and Miami's Jimmy Butler.
DEN C, Nikola Jokic
The Denver Nuggets' success can largely be attributed to the spectacular play of their star center, Nikola Jokic. Averaging impressive stats throughout the season, Jokic has continued to dominate in the playoffs, showcasing his remarkable scoring ability, court vision, and rebounding skills. As the leading scorer for the Nuggets, he will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the NBA Finals. At age 28, Nikola Jokic has the highest career Player Efficiency Rating (PER) in the history of the NBA playoffs, surpassing even that of Michael Jordan.
Career NBA Playoff Leaders for Player Efficiency Rating (Data via Basketball Reference)
Rank Player PER
- Nikola Jokic 28.94
- Michael Jordan 28.60
- George Mikan 28.51
- LeBron James 27.93
- Anthony Davis 26.55
- Shaquille O'Neal 26.13
- Hakeem Olajuwon 25.69
- Giannis Antetokounmpo 25.59
- Kawhi Leonard 24.29
- Tim Duncan 24.28
Not only was Jokic named the MVP of the Western Conference finals, but he also set a record, earning his eighth triple-double of the postseason as the Nuggets swept the Los Angeles Lakers. This accomplishment breaks the 56-year-old record held by Hall of Famer Wilt Chamberlain.
MIA F, Jimmy Butler
On the Miami side, the relentless drive and leadership of Jimmy Butler have been crucial in their journey to the Finals. His Game 7 performance against the Celtics was pivotal in ensuring Miami's place in the Finals, avoiding a historic series collapse. He emerged as the Eastern Conference finals MVP, largely due to his robust stats: an average of 24.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 2.6 steals per game.
Known for his relentless work ethic and clutch performances, Butler has carried Miami's supporting cast through the playoffs, often taking over in crucial moments. As the Heat's leading scorer, his ability to perform under pressure will be a significant factor in the team's quest for their fourth championship.
Supporting Cast
The supporting cast also plays a crucial role, with Denver's Jamal Murray and Miami's Bam Adebayo being key contributors. Murray, with his impressive scoring ability and shooting splits, could pose a significant threat to Miami. Meanwhile, Adebayo's defensive task of containing Jokic could significantly influence the outcome of the series.
Denver's Second Unit
One of the most significant advantages the Nuggets have over their opponents is their incredible depth. Denver's second unit, led by experienced players like Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, has consistently maintained leads and kept the momentum of the game with the Nuggets. This depth allows stars like Jokic and Jamal Murray to rest without sacrificing the team's performance on the court.
Miami's Supporting Cast
The Heat's bench, although not as formidable as Denver's, has shown flashes of brilliance during the playoffs. With contributions from Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin, Miami's supporting cast has been able to step up in big moments, often connecting on crucial shots. Additionally, Bam Adebayo's presence in the paint has been integral to Miami's success, and his defensive assignment against Jokic will be a key matchup in the series.
X-Factors
Finally, every team has its X-factor, and for the Nuggets, it’s Michael Porter Jr. Once projected as a potential No. 1 draft pick potentially ahead of DeAndre Ayton, Luka Doncic & Trae Young, Porter Jr.'s draft stock took a hit after a back injury curtailed his brief college career as Missouri. Now, however, he's become a crucial element for Denver, with his scoring ability, size, and range. His ability to stretch the floor and attack the rim could be a game-changer vs. a Heat team that played with smaller and smaller lineups as the Eastern Conference Finals wore on. Regardless of who they play, the Heat will need to account for Porter’s presence on the court.
Michael Porter Jr.'s scoring ability and versatility provide the Nuggets with an additional offensive weapon to complement Jokic and Murray. His ability to stretch the floor and attack the rim could be a game-changer in the series, as the Heat will need to account for his presence on the court.
Duncan Robinson's elite three-point shooting could prove to be a difference-maker for the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. His ability to space the floor and make timely shots will be crucial in providing Butler and Adebayo with ample room to operate, forcing the Nuggets to make difficult defensive decisions.
Coaching Matchup & Playing Style: Michael Malone vs. Erik Spoelstra
Michael Malone & the Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets' head coach Michael Malone has implemented an offensive system that maximizes the talents of his star players, Jokic and Murray. His ability to make in-game adjustments and exploit opponents' weaknesses has been crucial in Denver's journey to the Finals. Malone's experience and strategic acumen will be a significant factor in the championship series.
The Nuggets' offensive approach revolves around the exceptional playmaking abilities of Jokic, who often initiates the offense from the high post. Denver's system emphasizes ball movement, spacing, and off-ball cuts, allowing players like Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to thrive. The Nuggets' ability to maintain their offensive efficiency and exploit mismatches will be crucial in their pursuit of their first-ever NBA title.
The Nuggets' defense, anchored by Jokic and Aaron Gordon, has been effective in containing some of the league's most potent offenses during the playoffs. Denver's ability to switch and communicate on the defensive end has been crucial to their success. However, the challenge of defending a versatile player like Butler and a dynamic scorer like Adebayo will test the Nuggets' defensive prowess.
Erik Spoelstra & the Miami Heat
Erik Spoelstra, the Miami Heat's long-time head coach, is no stranger to the NBA Finals, having led the team to four consecutive appearances from 2011 to 2014. Known for his defensive mindset and ability to adapt to various situations, Spoelstra's experience in high-pressure scenarios provides the Heat with a valuable edge. His tactical approach to neutralizing Denver's offensive threats will be a fascinating aspect of the series.
The Miami Heat's offense is centered around the scoring prowess of Jimmy Butler, who excels in isolation situations and pick-and-roll actions. Miami's offensive approach also emphasizes ball movement and three-point shooting, with players like Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin providing valuable spacing around Butler and Adebayo. The Heat's ability to execute in the half-court and capitalize on transition opportunities will be a key factor in the series.
The Heat's defense, on the other hand, has been a key factor in their underdog run to the Finals. Miami's ability to apply relentless pressure on opposing ball handlers, coupled with their disciplined rotations and physicality, has been instrumental in their playoff success. Defending the pick-and-roll action between Jokic and Murray, as well as limiting Denver's three-point shooting, will be critical in determining the outcome of the series. One question will be how much the Heat will utilize their zone. In their Game 7 on Monday, according to Synergy tracking, the Heat allowed just 19 points on 34 possessions vs. the Celtics while employing zone defense.
Injury Updates
Denver Nuggets Injuries:
The Nuggets have been fortunate to remain relatively healthy throughout the playoffs, with all key players available for the NBA Finals. This healthy roster provides Denver with a significant advantage, as they can rely on their depth and continuity to challenge the Heat.
Miami Heat Injuries:
The Heat, on the other hand, have been dealing with the absence of their young star, Tyler Herro. There are questions surrounding his availability for the Finals, which could impact Miami's offensive firepower. However, the Heat have showcased their resilience throughout the playoffs, overcoming injuries to key players like Victor Oladipo and Markieff Morris.
According to Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports!, Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (hand fracture) is ramping up workouts and is expected to make his return at some point during NBA Finals with Game 3 being the likely target."
Herro injured his hand in Game 1 of the first round against Milwaukee, and he hasn't played since. The extended series against Boston bought Herro a little more time, and he's expected to return during the Finals. His availability will likely impact the playing time of guys like Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, Kyle Lowry, and Caleb Martin, who have all stepped up in his absence.
Historical Context
The 2023 NBA Finals presents an intriguing historical narrative, as the Denver Nuggets seek their first-ever championship, while the Miami Heat aim to add a fourth title to their collection. A victory for the Nuggets would solidify their status as one of the league's elite teams, while a championship for the Heat would further cement their reputation as a perennial contender.
Final Outlook:
Given the impressive performances of both teams throughout the playoffs, the 2023 NBA Finals is poised to be a closely contested battle. While the Denver Nuggets' depth and offensive prowess make them the favorites, the Miami Heat's resilience and defensive tenacity should not be underestimated. Ultimately, this series has the potential to go the distance, providing basketball fans with a thrilling conclusion to the NBA season.
NBA Finals TV Schedule
Below are the TV schedule and starting times for the 2023 NBA Finals games, which will be on ABC.
Game 1 - June 1 at 8:30 PM ET
Game 2 - June 4 at 8:00 PM ET
Game 3 - June 7 at 8:30 PM ET
Game 4 - June 9 at 8:30 PM ET
*If necessary:
Game 5* - June 12 at 8:30 PM ET
Game 6* - June 15 at 8:30 PM ET
Game 7* - June 18 at 8:00 PM ET
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