(AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)
Heading into Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals, the Denver Nuggets are on the road against the Miami Heat, with the series currently tied at 1-1. The market is optimistic about a Nuggets' bounce back in Game 3, despite their surprising fourth-quarter collapse and outright loss as 8-point favorites in Game 2. Leading offshore sportsbooks Bookmaker & BetOnline.ag kick-started the Game 3 market by setting Denver as 2-point favorites. This confidence was echoed by bettors, who, within thirty minutes of the line opening, had rallied behind Denver and driven the spread up to Denver -2.5, thus firmly establishing them as road favorites
However, DraftKings, a significant player in the US market, painted a slightly different picture by initially setting Denver as a mere 1-point favorite, just minutes after the conclusion of Game 2. Despite adjusting their line towards Denver, DraftKings still lags behind other sportsbooks, maintaining Denver as an 'expensive' 2-point favorite; DEN -2 (-115).
Meanwhile, prominent offshore sportsbook, Bookmaker, leans the other way, setting the Nuggets as 'expensive' -2.5 point favorites, requiring bettors to lay -113 to back the Nuggets at the number of -2.5 (-113). Other major sportsbooks, such as Westgate, BetOnline, Caesars, and Circa, are all in agreement with Denver laying -2.5 flat (-110 either way).
The total opened at 216.5, but downward pressure from bettors rapidly brought the number down to 215.5 within half an hour post Game 2's conclusion. As of early Monday morning, the total has settled at 215.5, with prominent US sportsbook, FanDuel offering an off-market Over/Under at 215.
Switching our focus to the player props, after Nikola Jokic's 41-point explosion in Game 2, the prop betting market has increased Jokic's points prop to 29.5 after it was set at O/U 27.5 in Games 1 and 2. This might not, however, be a good sign for Denver. Jokic is averaging 26.9 PPG in their 13 post-season victories, and his average jumps to 41 PPG in the four post-season losses. When Jokic scores at least 40 points, the Nuggets have gone 0-3 SU & ATS this postseason - a trend that continued in Game 2. However, when Jokic scores fewer than 40 points, the Nuggets have been dominant, posting a 13-1 SU & 11-3 ATS record.
The consensus seems to be that limiting the rest of the team and turning Jokic into a scorer is the key to defeating the Nuggets. However, Heat's coach Erik Spoelstra dismissed this notion, telling reporters after Game 2, "It's the untrained eye that says something like that...This guy's an incredible player. Twice in two seasons, this guy has been the best player on this planet. You can't just say, 'Oh, make him a scorer.' That's not how they play."
Meanwhile, the other marquee player in this series, the Heat's Jimmy Butler, has seen his Points prop lowered. After dropping from 27.5 to 26.5 between Games 1 & 2, Butler's points prop opened at Over/Under 25.5 in Game 3. Butler has now scored Under his Points prop in 7 of his last 8 games, and in 10 of 13 games since he suffered an ankle injury in Game 1 of the second round against the Knicks.
With the series tied at 1-1, Game 3 promises to be a nail-biter. Will the Nuggets regain their impressive form, or will the Heat utilize home advantage to take the series lead? Though the odds currently tilt in Denver's favor, the unpredictable nature of the NBA playoffs means that this is anybody's game.
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Related: NBA Finals 2023: Game 2 - Four Players' Props That Could Define the Outcome, 2023 NBA Finals Preview, Vegas Weighs in on Los Angeles Lakers Uncertain Offseason, Vegas Weighs in on Boston Celtics Uncertain Offseason
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