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Videos are just the START of the conversation. Each show has a dedicated blog post with show notes, links, and pics. Plus, the host and guests continue the conversation in the comments section!

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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    05/09/2024 7:02 PM

In-Depth Insights from the DreamPod: Mastering Sports Betting and NBA Playoff Predictions Transcripts

[Scott Seidenberg] (0:02 - 0:04)

Gray's Sports Almanac.


[Scott Seidenberg] (0:05 - 3:06)

Start talking, kid. What else you know about that book? Good pod tonight, guys.


Scott Seidenberg here. No R.J. Bell for this episode, but we had Steve Fezzik. Mackenzie Rivers talked NBA.


A.J. Hoffman was with us live from San Antonio. Got his NFL bets. Remember, we gave out ours last week, so we got an over and under from A.J. this week, and then some best bets from all of us on the pod. So a good episode. I think R.J. will be proud of this one. Yeah, it was good.


I had a lot of fun. Here's a promo code for you guys to save some money, not just for now, but for the rest of this year. That's right.


I said it. The rest of this year. We love the listeners of the DreamPod.


We wouldn't do this podcast if it wasn't for you, the listeners. So as our way of giving a special thank you to you, the listeners of R.J. Bell's Dream Preview, we're giving out a $100 coupon for the rest of 2024 all access. So think about that.


You get every single pick in every sport from your favorite pregame pro for the rest of the year. That's that's over seven months. Right.


If I do my math correctly, it's over seven months. And the price is. The same as a six month all access, actually less because we're giving you $100 off.


So here's what you got to do. You go to pregame dotcom. You go to purchase the discounted rest of 2024 all access from your favorite pregame pro.


Use the promo code. Thanks. One hundred.


Thanks. One hundred. That's going to save you one hundred dollars instead of paying nine ninety five, which is how much a six month all access costs.


And that nine ninety five is going to be for over seven months. So it's like you're getting a month and a half for free. You're going to pay eight ninety five because you get one hundred dollars off of that.


So why would anybody just why would you buy a six month all access, get the rest of 2024 all access? You get every pick that's major league baseball through the World Series, NHL through the rest of the Stanley Cup finals and the start of next season, NBA through the finals and the start of next season, college basketball through the end of the regular season, college football through the end of the year, college football through the end of the regular season and bowl games and then NFL preseason and regular season all the way to December 31st. This is a this is an incredible deal right now. Steve Fezik up 64 units in all sports.


Like from May 1st, twenty twenty three to twelve thirty one, twenty twenty three. So in that same time span that you can purchase right now on pregame dot com last year, Fez won you sixty four point thirty five units.


[Steve Fezzik] (3:07 - 4:09)

And it's no secret that for whatever reason, I put so much effort in during the football season, everything going on. I have oftentimes start slower and then I start kicking butt in the summer through the football season. It's just it's happened like the last three years happened last year.


I'm gonna put another guarantee on this. It should happen by me. All right.


And you don't win personally. I don't care what my record shows. You just show me the receipt and just tell me, hey, Fez, I didn't win.


Now, if I'm up eighty eight units, I'm like, well, then it's on you. But you like if I'm up 14 units, you just for whatever reason, I didn't have the enough outs or I didn't get some of your picks in time. And I passed on plays where the line moved and I didn't personally win.


Just tell me that. Show me the receipt that you bought this. I will personally, if that's the case, take you out to dinner.


We talk betting. We talk whatever you want. Pick my brain.


If nothing else, get a really nice McDonald's to get a really nice Vegas dinner, some steakhouse somewhere. Yeah, I'll probably get a comp. We'll make that happen.


[Scott Seidenberg] (4:09 - 4:10)

Well, there you go.


[Steve Fezzik] (4:10 - 4:13)

I'm not anticipating having to buy anybody any dinners.


[Scott Seidenberg] (4:13 - 5:04)

I don't think so either, based on your track record and what you got going on right now. So, again, you get a hundred dollars off any pregame pros rest of twenty twenty four all access. Just go to pregame dot com, select your pro, get the rest of twenty twenty four, every pick in every sport for the next seven plus months and take a hundred dollars off using the promo code.


Thanks. One hundred on to the Dream Pod. It's a wise guy roundtable minus one Scott Seidenberg leading the way here on RJ Bell's dream preview.


No RJ this week, but we do have the only two time winner of the super contest, Mr. Steve Fezik. Greetings and joining us from San Antone, AJ Hoffman from the basement of the Alamo.


[A.J. Hoffman] (5:04 - 5:12)

Here I am, Scott, looking for my bike here in the basement. I have not found it yet, but I am here. I'm broadcasting live.


[Scott Seidenberg] (5:12 - 5:40)

Incredible reference. And most of our audience probably has no idea what you're talking about, but that's OK because they suck because Fez and I enjoy that reference. You know what?


That's one. Davy Davy Crockett died in the Alamo Peewee Peewee's big adventure. I never saw it.


Oh, my bike. Good morning, Mr. Breakfast. Scary how good that is.


[A.J. Hoffman] (5:40 - 5:43)

That is really a fool that don't eat my cereal.


[Scott Seidenberg] (5:43 - 5:54)

I love the contraption makes the whole breakfast and they are so great. One by Mr. T cereal. And he's like, all done.


I'm full. Yeah. All right.


So A.J.'s down.


[A.J. Hoffman] (5:55 - 5:55)

What a film.


[Scott Seidenberg] (5:56 - 6:10)

San Antonio joining us here. Mackenzie Rivers will be on the pod a little bit later on. We'll get into the NBA playoffs as round two is underway.


But AJ, tell us about San Antonio. Are you wearing cowboy hats strutting around with your boots and spurs now?


[A.J. Hoffman] (6:10 - 6:51)

My cowboy hat. I only own one cowboy hat. It's still in Las Vegas, but I do have a pair of my boots here.


I brought my black ostrich boots. I have some alligator boots and some leather boots that I left in Vegas, but they'll all get down here eventually. I haven't had an opportunity to wear them yet, but it's coming.


I'm going to show up one day in my cowboy boots. I've got the square toe ostrich boots. So those are my highfalutin boots.


But the other ones you eat, those things, those will make you think you're a you're all hat, no cattle. But my other boots, you can wear out on the ranch if you needed to. Is that a saying all hat, no cattle?


[Steve Fezzik] (6:51 - 6:52)

Yeah, it's someone.


[A.J. Hoffman] (6:52 - 6:53)

Yeah. Oh, yeah.


[Steve Fezzik] (6:53 - 7:00)

Oh, it's someone who pretends to bet ten thousand, you know, per on their on their bets because they put one big bet on the Internet. But they're really like a fifty dollar better.


[Scott Seidenberg] (7:01 - 7:02)

Yeah. Makes a lot of sense.


[A.J. Hoffman] (7:02 - 7:24)

Where's the nearest casino, A.J.? I believe it's a no, the nearest casino where you can bet where you can bet sports anything. Oh, is it's on the Mexico border like Eagle Pass, Eagle Pass, Texas. It'd be Piedras Negras.


Mexico would be the closest.


[Steve Fezzik] (7:24 - 7:37)

I'm not a Texas geography major, but I think that General Santa Ana like like like and the Mexican army marched a long way to get to where you are. That's like two hours, right? Maybe more.


Three hours.


[A.J. Hoffman] (7:37 - 7:44)

It's it's a little more than two hours for me to that to that to that casino. Yeah.


[Scott Seidenberg] (7:44 - 8:00)

Do they have they have dice games there? And because I know like some of the the Indian casinos like in California, there's no like roulette you have they play roulette with cards and there's no they have they have poker and they have slots.


[A.J. Hoffman] (8:01 - 8:44)

OK, that's what they've got. Oh, I imagine there's a bunch of poker rooms here in San Antonio. Like you just have to be a member of the poker club and you can go in and play and there's no rake because that would be illegal.


But I played today, Fez. You'd be proud of me. I I did an hour of the afternoon show at a poker place and they were running a blackjack tournament, which I've never done.


But you've got 15 hands to turn. You've got 1500 in chips, 15 hands, men bets, 100 max bets, a thousand. And in 15 hands, I turned it into eighty eight hundred and I was number one on the leaderboard.


Fez, you would have been proud.


[Steve Fezzik] (8:44 - 9:03)

All right, let's talk about this, because this is very similar to a bet. U.S. tournament that they have in blackjack each and every month where they have a free roll. By the way, we lost AJ.


I played your entry. What is the optimal? What is the I'm going to ask you, what is the optimal strategy to win the aforementioned tournament?


[A.J. Hoffman] (9:03 - 9:35)

You have to be bold. You have to be ballsy, which sometimes means splitting tens. It means doubling hard twelves against a against a three or a four.


It's like you. It's not the way you would play at a regular table for sure. You have to take some bold risks.


What's your bet? I said I hit 17 once today, Fez. I hit 17 once today.


Is that bad? What was your what's go back? What's your opening bet size?


My first bet was four hundred.


[Steve Fezzik] (9:35 - 9:49)

OK, that's horrendous. You're fired. Scott, what should I expect?


The first bet should be the minimum. One hundred. You're you're fired even more.


So we just talked about how we have to get like a freaking huge stack at the max with the maximum.


[Scott Seidenberg] (9:50 - 9:50)



[Steve Fezzik] (9:51 - 10:09)

You know, I'd have to go to Anthony Curtis because you're giving up like if you get a pair of eights and I can't split them. All right. So there's two answers, 750 or fifteen hundred.


I think fifteen hundred. I think you shove with the very first bet. I mean, you just got to go.


Yeah, because you only got 15 hands and a thousand max.


[A.J. Hoffman] (10:09 - 10:09)

It's a thousand.


[Steve Fezzik] (10:10 - 10:51)

OK, yeah, that's that. I'm sorry. So if it was a fifteen hundred max, I think I would bet the fifteen hundred.


But because it's only a thousand max, I think you're giving up too much for not gaining enough. I think you bet 750. And that way, if you get an eleven or ten, you can double down.


But AJ spot on, you know, you get a pair of fives. I mean, you get a ten pair of tens and the dealer is a five or six. You got to split them because you need you basically just need to like stack up some big wins.


And ideally you play late because you want to know the score you need to get to win so you can so you keep going when you play like an hour before the deadline and then you keep going until you get the high score plus, you know, twenty twenty two hundred hours or whatever.


[Scott Seidenberg] (10:51 - 10:51)



[Steve Fezzik] (10:52 - 10:52)



[Scott Seidenberg] (10:52 - 10:54)

So is that what you did, AJ? You played.


[A.J. Hoffman] (10:54 - 11:12)

So you built it up to eighty eight and you were first place. I was in first place. I don't know how much I don't I don't know how much time's left, Fez, but I felt like I was about eight hundred chips ahead of second place.


So I felt like that was a solid run. Fifteen hundred and eighty eight hundred in fifteen hands. I felt OK about it.


[Steve Fezzik] (11:12 - 11:19)

Very good. Walk me through the 17 situation. What's your chip stack?


And obviously you've only got like one or two hands left. Talk to me.


[A.J. Hoffman] (11:20 - 11:27)

The 17 situation. Oh, when I oh, yeah, I had two hands left. I had 17.


The dealer shown a king.


[Steve Fezzik] (11:28 - 11:29)

What's your tip?


[A.J. Hoffman] (11:29 - 11:46)

And it's like I mean, it's it's over seventy five hundred. It was strong. So I and at that point I was betting a thousand every hand at that point because I had it to bet.


So you double. So I know I didn't double. I just hit the 17.


[Steve Fezzik] (11:46 - 11:56)

Sorry to bust your balls. Terrible, because sixty five hundred is not going to be good enough. And then if you lose that hand, then seventy five hundred is not going to be good enough.


My point is you need to win it to win. So why not double down?


[A.J. Hoffman] (11:58 - 12:05)

I mean, maybe I should have. I listen, Fez. This was the first time I've ever played a blackjack tournament.


I was pleased with the result. And now you're making me feel.


[Steve Fezzik] (12:05 - 12:22)

I love the I love the aggression idea. You know, frankly, I would have stood or I would have doubled. I don't think I don't think I would have hit.


Yeah. But but to be fair, James Kahn would love the play because it's Caesars Palace and the Gambler 1974. He went ahead and hit hard 18 and drew a three.


[Scott Seidenberg] (12:23 - 12:25)

But I also got very lucky on a five.


[A.J. Hoffman] (12:26 - 12:40)

I also got very lucky because in my 15 hands I hit five blackjacks and blackjack pays two to one in this tournament. OK, so yeah, that's awesome. Yeah, that was strong.


[Scott Seidenberg] (12:40 - 12:53)

Well, while you're playing blackjack, Victor Wemben Yama wins rookie of the year unanimously. What are the people in San Antonio saying about him and the future of the Spurs? Are they going to attract a major free agent this offseason?


[A.J. Hoffman] (12:54 - 15:30)

It feels that way. And they've got a ton of draft capital because they traded DeJounte Murray. They traded all these guys.


They they traded guys. They've got the Raptors pick this year if it's not a top six pick, I believe. But the truth is, I think Spurs fans are hoping that and the draft lotteries on Sunday.


I think Spurs fans are hoping that the Spurs get the highest possible pick in this year's draft that's theirs and that the Raptors pick goes to next year because this is not a super high end draft. So they don't want two picks in the top seven. They'd much rather have the Raptors pick next year when it's unprotected.


So they're hoping the Raptors get to keep their pick this year and the Spurs get theirs. I was saying the idea of Donovan Clingin with Victor Wim Benyama is so alluring because you've got two guys who are going to be elite rim protectors and the matchups on the other end of the floor become very difficult because I mean, you're going to put someone who's six foot eight on women Yama and have him out covering the three point line. He'll get eaten alive.


So that that'd be my goal for this draft. But eventually the plan is to bring in a free agent when they think they're ready to take that leap. And I think when they kind of took the reins off of a Wimby at late in the season, you started to see what he could really do.


The Spurs, they weren't a 22 win caliber team. They should have won more games, but early in the season, they were they were holding back what women Yama could really do. And I think the plan is for him to shoot a lot more threes next year because he shot a high percentage.


So you want him shooting more if he's shooting a high percentage. But I mean, this guy has the potential to be, you know, a multiple time MVP in this league. So anytime you've got a guy like that, that's your building block and you've got the kind of draft capital, I think they've got, I want to say six first round picks over the next two or three years.


You've got a lot to build around. And obviously that means you can trade some of that stuff for a free agent at some point, or maybe even not a free agent. I was looking at the odds of like next team.


If, if Devin Booker decides to leave next team, if Paul George decides to leave. So all those guys are Jimmy Butler. The one guy that Spurs fans will not welcome back is Kawhi Leonard.


I've learned that they hate Kawhi Leonard with a white hot passion here. So they don't want him back, but anybody else they're saying, Hey, bring them on. Let's put somebody, let's put somebody who's a proven winner next to this guy and see what they can do.


[Steve Fezzik] (15:31 - 15:35)

And it feels like the sky's the limit Spurs over under 32 wins over or under.


[Scott Seidenberg] (15:35 - 15:38)

I was literally going to ask you Fez set the, set the number for next year.


[Steve Fezzik] (15:38 - 15:44)

And would you bet it is Scott like in sync with the betting now he has gotten so good at it. Yes.


[Scott Seidenberg] (15:44 - 15:54)

Well, he knows what I like is like stole it from me. I was like, it was coming. I was about to just say it.


And then you just jumped in 32, AJ, over handicap that you're going to love Fez.


[A.J. Hoffman] (15:54 - 16:58)

Yes. I'm going to go over 32 wins because now is the time that they don't want to hold back anymore because they want a new arena. They're trying to get a new arena built downtown and they're trying to get funding for it.


They're trying to get citizens on board and the Spurs have stunk for the last five years. If they would have tried to build this thing eight years ago, the whole city would have said, hooray, let's do it. But they've been so bad that they need to show there's real progress.


And I, I think they're really going to kind of let Wimby loose this year and say, Hey, go win as many games as you can. If we're close to the playoffs and don't make it, that's okay. Because this is not a supremely talented team, but Wimby's the kind of player who can win 30 games by himself.


It feels like. So I think because they want that new arena downtown and they need some momentum to really get the votes to build it. I think you're going to see this team put their best foot forward this year.


And, uh, I'd say over 32 is a, is a good place to start.


[Steve Fezzik] (16:59 - 17:06)

Defensive player of the year. Wimby does not, when he finishes second, right. To, um, to go bear, to get a lot of people.


[A.J. Hoffman] (17:07 - 17:10)

Apparently there's a lot of people who are saying they would not vote for a rookie.


[Steve Fezzik] (17:10 - 17:15)

And yeah. So that, that, that is that the lesson learned here that be very careful.


[A.J. Hoffman] (17:15 - 18:02)

I think that is the lesson learned that a rookie is never going to win this because the Spurs went from like the 26th best defensive team when he was, when he was off the floor to the second best defensive team, when he was on the floor, like he's a super impactful guy, but the team results just weren't there. And him being a rookie, them winning 22 games. I don't think they were, he was going to get the stuff to do it.


And, and go bear is a commodity. He's playing for maybe the best defensive team in the league. He's the anchor of that team.


Uh, it, it made sense. But I think if you ask me who's going to win it next year, I would, I would bet money that it's going to be Wimby. I think that he is going to, he's going to do exactly what he did this year on the defensive end.


Uh, and he's, he's the best defensive player in the league. I believe. All right.


[Scott Seidenberg] (18:02 - 21:00)

Well, we're going to do more NBA coming up a little bit later on with Mackenzie rivers. We'll get into the NBA playoffs, but there you have it. AJ Hoffman's take on the San Antonio Spurs and Victor Wimby.


Last week on the dream pod, AJ and Fez, we did a, um, our post draft analysis, looking at teams and, and the value added. And we looked at various sources. Uh, Kevin Cole had some good stuff on his sub stack about positional values.


RJ was all about the positional values last week. And when he asked us like, what was our biggest, like the biggest takeaway from the draft, meaning like the biggest, uh, you know, piece that was drafted or, uh, we can certainly talk about panics going too early, but I say Xavier worthy being drafted by the Kansas city chiefs. And the reason why I said that, and I'll clarify my statements again, is he is, he was the fat, he set the combine record for the speed, right?


Fastest guy at the combine and the chiefs lacked with ever since losing Tyree kill. And I know the counter argument Fez is they won two Superbowls without them, but without Tyree kill, they lacked that deep threat, that over the top presence that changed the, that can change the way a defense plays against you, right? Whether it's the two high or whether it's, you know, cover three, whatever they want to do against Patrick Mahomes, it changed when they lost Tyree kill.


And so I felt that not only having Xavier worthy, but with Hollywood Brown now on the team, they can become much more of a vertical attacking offense, which opens up things in the middle of the field. You mentioned, I think last week Fez was the rushy rice, the emergence of him last season. Well, he's in the news again for another legal, it's not the same story.


It's not the same story, right? It's, it is another legal issue. There was an assault in Dallas and alleged assault, alleged assault that injured a man in a Dallas nightclub.


I think at some point, Roger Goodell is going to step in and there will be a suspension for rushy rice for whether it's a, you know, I don't know if it's conduct detrimental, but it's, you know, violation of the personal conduct policy. That's what it's going to be. Violation of the personal conduct policy.


And I know sometimes they say, oh, well, you know, wait until the legal system plays out and then Goodell comes down with the ruling, but to be in the news twice for a crash where he's driving 119 miles per hour and arrested, and then a now an alleged incident at a nightclub where a man was injured. I think the league has to come in. If not, then the Kansas city chiefs will have to come in and hand some sort of discipline down, which then makes my Xavier worthy take even, I think elevated even more because he's going to have an important role as a rookie immediately on this chief's team.


[A.J. Hoffman] (21:00 - 22:02)

I agree. No, I, I agree with that. Yeah.


This is a guy who is, is going to be an instant impact guy because they don't have many options. And I do believe the chiefs, if they don't, if there, if there's not like a suspension from up high, I don't know that the chiefs from a PR standpoint can really just say, ah, no big deal. Remember they have a, uh, the head coach's son who literally is in prison or went to prison because of a driving incident.


I don't know that from a PR standpoint, Rishi rice is worth. If the juice is worth the squeeze, because the truth is Patrick Mahoney is going to make anybody look good. You find a guy you draft Xavier worthy.


You could have drafted lad McConkey, whoever you were going to draft it. Patrick Mahoney is going to make them look good. I don't know if you want to deal with someone who's having the issues that Rishi rice is having right now, because it's bad for, for the look.


And you're like, you've got the face of the league on your team. I don't know if the chiefs are going to put up with it anyway.


[Steve Fezzik] (22:03 - 22:36)

You almost feel like the chiefs, a dirty Harry style Clint Eastwood should like hire a couple of guys to tail Rashid to make sure no trouble, he gets into no trouble for those who never saw the dirty Harry movie. So dirty Harry got put on a hit list by a criminal. And then he basically re he threatens back the criminal saying anything happens to me, some really bad stuff's going to happen to you.


And then later in the movie, he Eastwood knows that a couple of guys are following him. He's like, what do you know? And he corners him.


He's like, what's going on though? And they're like, no, no, no. We were paid to be your body guard.


Keep you safe.


[Scott Seidenberg] (22:37 - 23:00)

I'll tell you Xavier worthy, 16 to one to be the offensive rookie of the year is very attractive to me because I think the situation plays out for him to have a major role in this chief's offense. If Rasheed Rice is suspended for any amount of time, it's Hollywood Brown and Xavier worthy. And that Travis Kelsey guy, but we know that Kelsey's another year older, despite the contract that was too many rookies, right?


[Steve Fezzik] (23:01 - 23:02)

But I don't rookie quarterback.


[Scott Seidenberg] (23:02 - 23:12)

I want no piece, but Caleb Williams is plus one 75. I want no piece of that whatsoever. I'm going to disagree really well, not a plus one 75, 75.


I want no piece of that.


[Steve Fezzik] (23:12 - 23:12)



[Scott Seidenberg] (23:13 - 23:21)

Marvin Harrison jr. Plus six 50, but is Kyler Murray going to make him the offensive rookie of the year? Yes.


He's going to throw to him left and right.


[Steve Fezzik] (23:22 - 23:23)

What do you think AJ?


[A.J. Hoffman] (23:24 - 25:03)

I mean, I think much, much like Kansas city, Arizona was starved for a wide receiver. Um, I I'll, I'll, I'll say this and I'm not, I'm not crazy about Marvin Harrison jr. Like he's his dad.


Like I, I think there were several wide receivers in this draft. I think neighbors and a doomsday were, were just as good. They clearly liked Harrison over the other guys.


And I'm, I'm not going to say like one way or the other, I think it was a good pick or a bad pick, but I think they got what they wanted, which was their favorite wide receiver in the draft. That's what they needed. So if I know Fez says, you know, you don't want to play overs, but if you said, Hey, forced over and forced under post draft, my over would be the Arizona Cardinals because I think they took care of their biggest need.


I think a lot of people are looking back at last year and saying, Oh, what a disaster. But they've got a second year coach. They've got a healthy Kyler Murray, which they didn't have for most of last year.


And when did Arizona look competitive down the stretch when Kyler was there? I don't think Kyler's the kind of, I don't think he's the kind of quarterback that's going to win a super bowl. I think his ceiling is, is lower than some of those guys.


I think that him being paid, like he's a top tier guy is a long-term mistake, but for Arizona's wind total to be at four and a half, I think six or six, sorry, six and a half minus one 30 to the over. I think it's, I think it's too low. And I think Arizona is a team that is going to make a big jump as long as Kyler stays healthy.


But you Fez, you could say that about any team, right? If you're taking the over, it's always, if the quarterback stays healthy and if he doesn't, you know, it's a loss anyway, but if Kyler Murray stays healthy this year, I don't see any reason why Arizona can't win seven or eight games.


[Steve Fezzik] (25:04 - 25:48)

This is a really strong pick. In fact, blue horseshoe endorses this play over six and a half. And so let's think about this.


I am not on an Island. Scott, where do you put Kyler Murray in your quarterback list? One to 32nd point of reference.


I've got a Gino Smith, 19th, 14, 13, 14. Exactly. I got 15 where we're in agreement.


Here's what's interesting. The 13 or 14 guys I got above him. Every one of those teams, every one of them is projected by the season wind numbers to have a winning record.


So think about that. If the top 13 to 14 teams and quarterbacks are all supposed to win 8.6 or more and Arizona is six and a half, gotta give me some over, right?


[Scott Seidenberg] (25:49 - 25:49)



[Steve Fezzik] (25:49 - 25:50)

I actually love that.


[Scott Seidenberg] (25:51 - 26:59)

Then you look at the division too. I think the Rams could take a step back. So I'm not worried about that.


I think the Seahawks take a step back. Although there are people that are very high on the Seahawks. There's no reason why they can't have a better divisional record than they've had in previous years.


So I, I liked that a lot, AJ. I liked the over six and a half on the Arizona Cardinals. Okay.


So there's Marvin Harrison at plus six 50, the second favorite for offensive rookie of the year. Jaden Daniels is your third favorite at plus six 50. I'm intrigued by it only because of cliff Kingsbury.


Does that make sense? Because I think, yeah, I think in the Kingsbury offense, I mean, he's got, he's got the quarterback he wanted. Remember we talked about this, we talked about this bet months ago, Jaden Daniels to go second overall, because when he gave his introductory press conference as the OC in Washington, they're like, what do you need from a quarterback?


And he talked about mobility and the ability to scramble and make and extend plays with your legs. That's exactly what Jaden Daniels can do. So I'm very intrigued by, and I like that number.


I'm very intrigued by Jaden Daniels at plus six 50. Now Fez isn't going to like this.


[Steve Fezzik] (27:00 - 27:00)



[Scott Seidenberg] (27:00 - 27:01)

Because I don't think they're going to win enough games.


[Steve Fezzik] (27:03 - 27:34)

Globally, let me put it this way. You guys have endorsed two players to win rookie of the year. Why don't I like that?


Because you don't like needle in a haystack bet. Because the why I don't like needle in a haystack bets is because the house vig is like 20, you know, 22%. So if both of these dudes have value, like, like it's very rare.


It's like, it's like picking the winner of a NASCAR race and like picking four race car drivers. It's like, like, like, but as everyone else minus 48%, you know, because they have to be for these two guys to have value. So, and maybe they can be, it's certainly possible.


[Scott Seidenberg] (27:34 - 27:53)

I'm just, I'm just looking at the numbers here and just picking out who I would, who I would put money on. See, I don't think Washington's going to win very much, but I think Arizona could easily like be an eight or nine win team, you know, whereas, and then Harrison's a pro bowler as a rookie and offensive rookie, like a, like a Justin Jefferson type rookie season.


[Steve Fezzik] (27:53 - 28:18)

We already saw the movie, but you know, about it with Jerry Maguire did well, he wasn't a rookie truck, truculent relation. Yeah, it was a veteran, but truculent relationship with the media, but he's single-handedly keeping this Arizona Cardinal team in playoff contention. Not going to get me to cry.


You're not going to get me to cry. Quarterback's going to get me killed. It keeps throwing too high over the middle.


[Scott Seidenberg] (28:21 - 28:24)

All right, AJ. So you gave your over. What about your under post-draft?


[A.J. Hoffman] (28:25 - 30:18)

This one was easy for me because I think that the Atlanta Falcons who were seven and 10 last year using this pick on Michael Pennix, it's like, it's like buying Chrome wheels. When you don't have a muffler or a transmission. I mean, this is, this is such a future down the road pick that I can't feel good about them for this year.


You've got a quarter. I know you've upgraded quarterback. We don't know what Kirk cousins is going to look like out there.


Like the idea that he and Aaron Rogers had the same injury is just, it's not true necessarily because Kirk cousins injury was to his plant foot. That's different than Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers was ready to come back late in the season.


At least according to some people, the recovery time for that push leg is greater than the recovery time for the plant leg. I don't think we're going to get a healthy Kirk cousins. I don't think Michael Pennix is going to make an impact year one.


There were so many holes on that team. And if, I mean, if you win seven games, you've got a lot of holes and with their pick, you know, that was a top 10 pick. They used it on something that isn't going to help them improve this year.


Yet the, the, the number says they're going to improve by three games. I just don't see that. It's almost like the bears last year when their number got to seven and a half.


And I was like, are the bears going to go really to eight full wins? Like, cause that's what they had to do. It was a massive jump.


It feels like for the Falcons to get to 10 wins, which is what it would take to beat me. I just can't get myself there. So I like Atlanta under nine and a half.


I think they set them. I think they made the right choice for their long-term, but I don't think they made the right choice for next season.


[Scott Seidenberg] (30:19 - 30:32)

That's exactly what we talked about last week. It literally exactly. Cause as you said, the draft was the draft pick was give the draft pick made no impact on this coming season.


[A.J. Hoffman] (30:32 - 30:43)

And the only way you would love this pick because that's what, that's the way Fez, Fez always says I'm a goldfish. I only see the upcoming season. I don't think about the long-term impacts.


[Scott Seidenberg] (30:43 - 30:46)

I want to know how are you going to win total for 2026 right now?


[A.J. Hoffman] (30:46 - 30:47)



[Steve Fezzik] (30:47 - 30:56)

Check our friends at the Falcons, but us had a 10 and a half on Atlanta. So check, check that if, if, if they still have under 10 athlete minus one 45 bet a zillion on that. Okay.


[A.J. Hoffman] (30:56 - 31:14)

Okay. But yeah, I just think that there's no way they improved themselves for next season and we're talking wind totals. That's what we're looking at.


And I just don't, I don't think the, the adjustment warrants, you know, it is warranted when you consider that they didn't really draft for this upcoming season and they were bad last year.


[Scott Seidenberg] (31:14 - 31:37)

Now, the only way it pans out is if Kirk cousins get a shirt, but if Kirk cousins gets hurt, they ain't going to win 10 games. Yeah. They're probably not winning, losing games.


Exactly. There's a, there's a, a growth period or growing pains that rookie quarterbacks will in, in, you know, have to endure. And so if cousins get hurt, gets hurt, like I'm certainly not betting them the net the following week.


[A.J. Hoffman] (31:37 - 32:39)

I want you to think about this. Think about the, the idea that a rookie quarterback, like let's think about Bryce young, for example, Bryce young struggled mightily last year, Bryce young took number one snaps in camp. Michael Penix isn't going to take the number one snaps for this team preseason because the assumption is Kirk cousins is going to be the number one.


If he does get hurt. I mean, I think the ramp up process for Penix is going to be even longer than a rookie who like CJ Stroud, who was the number one guy, the de facto number one guy going into the season. I just think that he's not going to be ready to play right away.


And you can't count on cousins staying healthy. I just think there's, there's too many things that point to this team being at least, I don't want to say a disappointment because their division there's going to be winnable games, but you don't get 10 division games. You know what I mean?


You, you, you get six and I don't know if they're better than new Orleans. I don't know if they're better than Tampa. So let's say, let's say they split those.


You got to, you're coming up with eight more wins on their schedule.


[Steve Fezzik] (32:40 - 32:54)

I just can't see it happening. And that being third place instead of fourth place schedule. Remember Atlanta's had a really easy schedule in prior years.


And so now they it's not a hard schedule, but they don't get the fourth place coveted schedule.


[Scott Seidenberg] (32:54 - 34:05)

I gave out the bears over last week. And I know it's kind of talking out of both sides of my mouth about, you know, banking on a rookie quarterback, but if Caleb Williams, in my opinion, if he is half of what CJ Stroud was last year, so that means better than Bryce young, but, but not as good as CJ Stroud. I still think the bears win nine games.


Remember how good the bears were in the second half of last season defensively when they acquired Montez sweat and then the additions on offense, whether it's swift at running back or it's Keenan Allen at wide receiver. They also drafted a wide receiver. They also have DJ more like the offensive weapons are there.


They got good tight ends too. Yeah. Cole come at exactly for Caleb Williams to have a phenomenal rookie season, which is why he's plus one 75 to be the rookie of the year.


But I'd rather take a shot at them winning over eight and a half games, even at the juiced price right now. Cause I think that's the way the season's going to play out for the bears more so than, you know, Caleb winning the rookie of the year. Cause I think, I mean, no one's going to bank on, I don't want to, you don't want a quarterback to get hurt, but injuries can happen.


I still think this bear's team is talented enough to, to fall into eight wins.


[Steve Fezzik] (34:06 - 34:20)

Eight and a half to nine is the current number on or off a number and season wins. Half a game is worth about 45 cents bet accordingly. So over eight and a half minus one 45 would be the same as over nine minus 100.


[Scott Seidenberg] (34:20 - 34:23)

And that's what it is right now up on draft Kings over eight and a half minus one 45.


[Steve Fezzik] (34:23 - 34:51)

Some would refer to that over nine as even money. That would be those people are squares. Now those people, those people are cool, but I always tell people like, I get into argument.


I'm like, like, don't be too cool for school. Don't say even money or flat because you know what? There's a bunch of people in the industry that don't necessarily know what you mean.


And a sharp third grader understands minus 100 or plus 100. That's 100. That's even money.


[Scott Seidenberg] (34:51 - 35:36)

All right, AJ, I know you got to get to sleep because you got to get ready for a spot on SOV AM tomorrow morning, as well as your very own long day to show in San Antonio. So the schedule comes out next week. That's a big deal for the NFL.


And we'll get your thoughts on the schedule release when you're on the dream pod next time. Sounds good. So the schedule coming out next week, Fez, like how, how much of a betting opportunity is there on the day the schedule is released?


So they say Wednesday at 8 p.m. Eastern time is going to be like that show that I guess they'll put on. So the schedule, but you know what's going to happen is throughout the day, all the reporters are going to be leaking stuff on social media. So when do the game of the year lines come out?


When do the first spreads come out once the schedule gets released?


[Steve Fezzik] (35:37 - 35:44)

Typically from memory, week one numbers pop up the same day. So that's where the opportunity is to whack the week one numbers.


[Scott Seidenberg] (35:45 - 35:50)

I know they'll pop up on like DraftKings and stuff, but here in town they'll pop up? We'll see.


[Scott Seidenberg] (35:50 - 35:50)

Pretty quickly?


[Steve Fezzik] (35:50 - 37:00)

We will see. Okay. All right.


And I think from memory, I think so, because everyone wants to be first to market or say they were, you know, they got it up right after the schedule. So that would be awesome. Although I'm a little concerned because the Sao Paulo game, Philly is, um.


That's already up. Well, it's up at DraftKings, but it's not up in Vegas. All right.


So I can't bet Philly Packers in Vegas. So that's disconcerting. The fact, if they haven't put that up, are they suddenly going to pop up the whole week one?


Well, we'll have to see. Yeah. And I know Circa's being much more conservative about a lot of numbers.


Anyone who's betting the UFL, it's a real problem because no one wants to be first to market. So what happens is that it is today's Wednesday. So like this morning or Tuesday night, BetOnline and DraftKings were the only two books that had numbers up yet.


And whoever's in charge of the UFL should be fired. Sorry, Rock. They need to make friends with their, I mean, they got sponsors, their sports books.


Say, look, dudes, you know, how about putting our lines up on our games? And if you want to put $300 limits, whatever, we got it. We got to have point spreads to talk about.


That's what, you know, interests people.


[Scott Seidenberg] (37:00 - 37:09)

I think South Point is usually quick with the NFL openers. They might be wrong with a couple of lines, but they usually put them up, put them up, put them up quickly.


[Steve Fezzik] (37:09 - 37:39)

You know what? Maybe I'm remembering where they're great with college football. They do that with college.


Yes. I don't think so much as the NFL. And the best example I can give is that there were years and years where they said guessing lines with Chrissy Andrews.


And so what and so each week they would they would not put up their NFL lines until Monday until after 8 a.m. And then Chrissy Andrews would explain in copious detail why he liked or disliked many teams and his analysis and the like. And then he would copy the number that Jay Kornegay in the Westgate or Jeff Benson circa had done.


[Scott Seidenberg] (37:39 - 38:13)

OK, so that was really helpful. Maybe I'm just thinking of college football because they don't read Hall of Fame bookmakers early on that. Very helpful.


So, yeah, schedule release will come out and then I'm sure we'll get some people like some people are saying I saw I saw the most asinine take on social media. I don't want to call the person now because I actually like them. But they said that the schedule releases.


I don't know why people make a big deal out of it. And I was like, are you kidding me? Like that's where betting opportunities come in.


First off, you got to hit the openers. Second off, when you see the schedule come out, you find out about rest advantages.


[Steve Fezzik] (38:14 - 39:02)

I actually largely agree with the that was me. That was me. So basically what I said was that when it comes to season wins, everyone's like, well, what's really important is the order that you play the teams and the schedule.


Bullshit. What's more important is who you play. All right.


If you get to play Carolina instead of having to play San Francisco, I know they're in different divisions. Like that is going to trump having to play in the world. I'd much rather play Carolina in the world's worst situation.


I can be in Antarctica the week before and I want to play Carolina versus in a good spot and have to play a contending team. Having said that, this stuff is significant. You nailed it.


It's the games of the year. It's you can when those lines go up and you can spot the really bad spot for a team and bet against them like week eight, that's where it's awesome.


[Scott Seidenberg] (39:02 - 40:00)

Yeah, there's situations that always come up once you see the schedule, whether it's a team off of a short week, like I said, the rest advantage or cumulative rest week, week after week, it stacks or one of my favorite situations is cold weather teams going down to warm weather spots, fire and ice both ways. Exactly. I love the I love the early in the year games in Miami or Jacksonville, where the humidity and heat is just too much, especially Miami, where they make you sit in the sun and they're they're in the shade.


And then I also love the vacation spots, which is where you have a cold weather team in December that has to travel to Miami to play. Patriots go down to Miami and like they always suffer down there and they're like the most buttoned up team of all time. Yeah, exactly.


Packers go down to Miami in December and those are always great opportunities. So when the schedule comes out, that's the first thing I'm going to look at is the weather situations and the rest situation for all these teams.


[Steve Fezzik] (40:01 - 40:23)

Two other factors, international teams, international games. You don't want to be home in Germany. You don't want to be home in Bulgaria or the Ukraine or wherever they're going to play this year.


So the bottom line is you don't mind playing a road game in Europe because, yeah, you don't want to do all that travel, but at least you don't have one. That's one fewer hostile crowd situations that you experience.


[Scott Seidenberg] (40:23 - 40:59)

Yeah, well, we know we know half the teams that are going to be playing in London. We know about the Brazil game, Packers, Eagles, but there is a London game where the Vikings will be playing. We just don't know against who.


Then another London game, two more London games, another Bears game in both of them at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. We don't know who the Bears are playing. The Jaguars, who do it every year, will play a game.


And that's irrelevant because they do get a home field. They'll play a game at Wembley Stadium against an unnamed opponent, and the Panthers will be the Germany game this year in Munich. So those will be the home teams.


Yes. So they're all those teams get screwed.


[Scott Seidenberg] (40:59 - 40:59)



[Scott Seidenberg] (40:59 - 41:10)

Vikings, Bears, Jaguars, Panthers. We just don't know who their opponents will be. Very good.


So all those teams absent the Jaguars, that's bad for them. The London Jaguars.


[Steve Fezzik] (41:10 - 41:45)

Yes. And one more week 18 contenders. You want to play juggernauts week 18.


If you're the Jets, you want to play Buffalo week 18 because it might not be the bills. It might be the spare bills because they may have everything wrapped up. If you're Seattle, you want to play San Francisco week 18.


Yes, you get the idea. So it's no lock. It's no guarantee.


But in general, if those teams truly are great this year, then there's a fairly good chance. Then you won't have to face their starters that last week, especially if it's a week 18 game in your home, because teams are more likely to mail in a road game.


[Scott Seidenberg] (41:45 - 42:07)

Well, that'll be the bulk of the conversation for the Dreampod next week. We'll do an entire schedule release breakdown and pick out some of these situational spots and then see if any books here in town do open up some of the lines, the game of the year lines. But I do expect the online books like the Draft Kings of the World to have at least week one already up as soon as the schedule gets released.


They're usually really quick with that.


[Steve Fezzik] (42:07 - 42:41)

Yes. And invariably, there's always mistakes that get made. And then it becomes a question of and there's something else.


I disagree with a lot of the pros that people will say, well, you don't want to take out a number. You want everyone to let the number settle and then get down a whole lot more money. I'll use an example, the Sao Paulo game.


All right. So Philly Green Bay, the total open of 51. There's no waiting.


I know 51. Stupid. I know McKenzie's going to bet under 51 as soon as he gets to the Hoover Dam.


So I got to bet it before he gets there, because if I don't take it out, he will. Forty eight and a half now. Yeah.


Not as good.


[Scott Seidenberg] (42:41 - 43:24)

Let's shift gears to the NBA playoffs. McKenzie Rivers is with us here on the dream pod and Mac, the Knicks, a one thirty one twenty win in game two of their series against the Pacers as they take a two games to none series lead. I completely whiffed on this game because I thought first half under was the way to go, thinking I need to see the Knicks dictate the pace of this game.


Because as you and I talked about earlier this week on S.O.V., the Pacers out outpaced the Knicks and Pacers paced they they made them play fast in game one. And that's why the Knicks were trailing the entire game. I thought the Knicks would have to slow it down here in game two, but not the case.


Like this was a track meet.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (43:24 - 44:11)

Well, if it makes you feel any better, I was right in line with you. I don't know. I was back and forth the whole night on literally first half over or under, I should say.


And at the six minute mark, when there was twenty five points scored in the first quarter and the Knicks were up eleven, I was like kicking myself. I'm like, I should have played it. The Knicks are playing their pace.


And then Jaylen Brunson goes out with the foot and they had to play completely differently. There's no half court game when you don't have the point guard dictating everything. They put up a lot of threes and it was completely different.


However, Jaylen Brunson was there for the fourth quarter and yet again, 60 points plus scored in the fourth. So, yeah, there's a little conflicting data there, but I agree with you generally. I'm looking at the under in game three.


I think the Knicks do want to play slower and had Jaylen Brunson been there the whole time, I think it would have been a little slower. But hey, 251 points scored. That's a lot.


[Scott Seidenberg] (44:12 - 44:17)

Pacers minus five for game three. Is that a correct market adjustment?


[Mackenzie Rivers] (44:18 - 44:31)

Man, a ten point move for home court advantage. All right. Maybe we give them.


I mean, Pacers have a good home court. Haven't been this far in the playoffs in forever. It's going to be Rock is there.


But that seems like a massive adjustment. I thought it would be three. It's only Knicks or pass for me.


[Scott Seidenberg] (44:32 - 44:37)

Fez, does this seem like the zigzag with the Knicks taking the first two games and the home team down to here?


[Steve Fezzik] (44:37 - 45:01)

Yeah. So the Knicks closed minus four and a half tonight. All right.


And if you figure you're going through the zero. So normally we switch up six points for a home court or sometimes seven, you know, but it clearly have to go seven because you're going through the zero. So we make Indiana minus two and a half minimum and then two points for the zigzag and we get to four and a half.


So it looks a little bit it looks a little bit high to be above minus four and a half.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (45:01 - 45:07)

And looking at my screen here, at least Bet Online moved it to four and a half after opening up at five and a half. So you're listening to the pod.


[Steve Fezzik] (45:07 - 45:55)

You know, I got I got to say, like, like, I don't understand, like, like I hear all the time Vegas knows these these oddsmakers know. And I've been there. It's like late at night.


There's like it's Cheech and Chong surfing porn, putting up a number that they're going to take one bet on for like a dime limit on Bet Online. It's like no big deal. It's just throw something up, throw up three, throw up seven, get get something up there.


You know, someone will bet and they'll let us know fast enough if they put up a bad number, because I can tell you that they're they're literally. I don't know if I'm more shocked by how bad those openers can be or how long that it actually takes more than 30 seconds for the line to move, because like, like all of us are like, oh, that's too too high. It doesn't you know, I could see I could see in the like my four, four and a half, but five and a half.


[Scott Seidenberg] (45:55 - 46:13)

I'm curious. I mean, I don't five's a key number in the NBA as well. Yeah, I don't see any halftime lines up just yet because the game obviously we're recording this when the game just ended Nixon Pacers.


But I would if I had to guess, I'd say Pacers three and a half for staff minus four, four, half a point less than the game line.


[Steve Fezzik] (46:13 - 46:14)

Yeah, that's my view with that, Mackenzie.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (46:14 - 46:26)

Yeah, we saw that we saw with Phoenix, Minnesota. Now that line got that up to Phoenix minus six somehow, which looks ridiculous now. But the first half was three and a half when the game was four.


So at least three and a half for if this game stays.


[Steve Fezzik] (46:26 - 46:36)

Yeah. So I usually think like, like it doesn't work, obviously, if the line's one. But in this range, you make it just a little less than the game line.


The Pacers have a chance to come back in this series.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (46:37 - 47:09)

I thought game one was the Pacers game to win. Everything went right. The Knicks turned it over a bunch of times.


The Pacers were hitting their threes and they still gave up the lead in the fourth quarter. In this game, I think if Brunson doesn't go out for 20 minutes in the middle of the game, this could easily be a blowout. Brunson was plus 26 in this game.


I think this is a kind of this might be an opportunity because I don't think the Pacers played well enough to be competitive in either in the second game and the first game I thought was kind of fortuitous. So I think I know New York is a big home court advantage, but I think they're just a far superior team.


[Steve Fezzik] (47:10 - 47:24)

You know, it's distressing if you're a Pacer fan, is that Obi Toppin goes for 20 and Halliburton, who's been banged up, has a big game and goes for 30 and you're not even competitive. You get you get blasted. That is not good.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (47:24 - 47:38)

Yeah, they can't rebound. They can't play defense. They're ahead of schedule.


I mean, Rick Kyle came there completely revamped the program, made it an offensive type team. They were number one offense. A lot of good things.


They can hang their hat on the end of the season. But the end of the season coming up pretty quick.


[Scott Seidenberg] (47:39 - 48:33)

Let's go to the game twos that we're going to see here on Thursday night. And both game ones were absolute blowouts. The number one seed in the East Celtics destroyed the Cavs.


Number one seed in the West Thunder destroyed the Mavericks. I was not surprised about the Celtics one, because as I've mentioned many times on every podcast that I'm recording, the Celtics are not losing to anybody four out of seven games. They lost four home games the entire season.


They might not lose another home game this entire playoffs. So I'm not surprised when they win by 25. They've been the best team all year long.


I was, however, surprised that the Thunder dominated the Mavericks in the way that they did. And maybe I disrespected the Thunder, but I did not see them winning that big in that game. I love the Mavericks, plus the points in game one, and it was over before it even started.


Actually, not really, because it was competitive early, but then it disappeared fast.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (48:33 - 49:03)

Yeah, if you bet the first quarter line, hey, you're a winner. Mavericks plus a half. Half court line, full game line, it wasn't really competitive.


But good news, you got a couple more points. You got five if you want game two instead of three and a half. This, I agreed with you on the SOV last week.


I thought the Mavericks were a more superior team. I think this is kind of emblematic of what's going on in the NBA right now. Like, the new guys aren't just as good as the old guys.


The new guys are just better. Maybe SGA Anthony Edwards are going to be competing for best player in the West next week.


[Steve Fezzik] (49:04 - 49:36)

Well, the new guys stay healthy and the old guys get hurt. So, Luca, look, I'm Luca. My knees on the second floor and some big brace.


I mean, it's just like they're unable to play at that high level. And I got to ask you, Mackenzie, this is the makings of being one of the worst NBA playoffs ever. I mean, none of the games are close.


It's a foregone conclusion. Boston plays the winner right now. Oklahoma City, Minnesota.


Like, so we're going to get two good series and everything else is like exhibition.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (49:37 - 50:17)

Agree? I don't know. I mean, I love the NBA playoffs.


It's interesting, like the ratings in the NBA has gone down as they've gone down across networks. But they're just about to sign a deal that way surpasses the NFL in terms of how much more they're getting this deal versus the last deal. They're getting like 70 percent of what NFL gets.


And if you look at the 100 most watched shows, 100 NFL games or 99 NFL games in a college football game. So it's not the traditional eyeballs. It's like, you know, the conversation, the buzz, the Anthony Edwards commercials, the the social media following.


It's like it has to be tracked in a different way because these games are not being watched like they used to. But there's still a lot of characters.


[Scott Seidenberg] (50:17 - 50:51)

I've always said this from the from the jump when social media started to boom. No sports league embraced social media like the NBA. Yeah.


More so than any other league. I mean, there was a time where Major League Baseball was sending cease and desist letters to people that were reposting videos. Right.


Don't watch our sport, please. But yet the NBA had every player on Twitter interacting with their fans, talking about the sport, showing dunk highlights to the it got to a point where they created a currency around NBA highlight videos. By the way, I don't think anybody's talking about Top Shot anymore.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (50:51 - 50:57)

Yeah. What happened? Someone has a two hundred thousand dollar like at the Edwards.


He's like, hey, he's good now.


[Scott Seidenberg] (50:57 - 51:16)

It's a rookie card. It's going to be good. Someday it'll be worth money.


Do you see the Tom Brady roast? No. Nikki Glaser made a joke about Tom Brady losing all his money in crypto.


And she's like, how could you fall for that? Even Gronk knew me. No, that not real money.


It was like the funniest joke of the night. That's how I feel about NBA Top Shot.


[Steve Fezzik] (51:16 - 51:23)

But I don't I don't get the whole roasting because it's like there's you've never seen like an old Friars Club roast.


[Scott Seidenberg] (51:23 - 51:23)



[Steve Fezzik] (51:24 - 51:50)

Sure. But the point is, is that like you if you want to roast like like an all American, like perfect, perfect guy, but like someone who has flaws and has personal issues like that, all that's all he did was attack. I would like leave me the marriage, leave me the F alone, you know, and say and other people get like like ripped like Kraft and Belichick.


And it's like that doesn't seem like a good time to me. Maybe I don't like I don't like roasting. I'm anti-roast.


[Scott Seidenberg] (51:51 - 52:19)

I enjoy it because the person that's doing it signed up for it. Right. And so they obviously know what's coming.


They obviously are OK with what's coming. I know that there's boundaries that are set. And I've listened to interviews and podcasts since Sunday Night's broadcast, where some of the comedians talked about some of the things that they decided were going to be off limits and some of the things that they said, hey, like the whole Giselle thing is like it's on the table, like it's public.


If Giselle's on the table, what's off limits? Kids. OK, don't talk about the kids.


All right.


[Steve Fezzik] (52:19 - 52:23)

Don't talk about him getting drunk on the boat. No, you know, I'm none of that.


[Scott Seidenberg] (52:23 - 52:27)

I just hope that he was talking about him losing money in crypto. They talked about Giselle a lot.


[Steve Fezzik] (52:27 - 52:29)

I just hope that he was not Antonio Brown.


[Scott Seidenberg] (52:30 - 52:31)

Someone did mention that.


[Steve Fezzik] (52:31 - 52:44)

I hope he was never like actually steering the ship, because I believe that's that's a DUI at sea. I mean, I mean, that that that clearly is that I think it's a BWI boating. Well, thank you.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (52:44 - 52:47)

Yeah, I've actually heard more than one story about that. Really?


[Scott Seidenberg] (52:47 - 53:09)

I've never comes up. I've never. I don't know.


Not a big not a big voter. But let's get back to the NBA playoffs and let's roast some of these teams in the NBA. Here's what I want to say.


It's over. Here's Boston against Minnesota, Oklahoma City. Take a couple of weeks.


Whose star is blowing up more in this postseason, Jalen Brunson or Anthony Edwards?


[Mackenzie Rivers] (53:10 - 53:34)

To me, it's Anthony Edwards, one, because he's 22 and two, because when a number one pick in the draft goes on this trajectory, you could start to think like Kobe Bryant. You start to think like as good as any player in the league. He could be the face of the league.


Jalen Brunson. I don't want to say it's a hot streak. I mean, it's amazing.


But when you're a 33rd pick, it's just like, show me more. I'm not convinced yet. Are you the greatest Nick ever?


[Steve Fezzik] (53:35 - 53:39)

It feels like the Bulls was a rice that went crazy.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (53:40 - 54:21)

Who is the Bulls? Derrick Rose. Derrick Rose.


Derrick Rose was one of the great talents ever. He just never stayed healthy. Yeah.


Jalen Brunson doesn't have that kind of athleticism. He just makes every paid away jump shot that he takes. But if this is the start of like a three year run, I think he could be part of.


I think what's more interesting or what's more the trajectory is more promising is the Knicks because Jalen Brunson, I mean, he did this with the Mavericks. He got them to the conference final. He's a phenomenal talent, but he's not gonna be able to do it by himself.


I don't think he's that kind of talent. But if he brings in Devin Booker or Paul George, they could be the team to beat in the east. I think because they have so much cap space, they have all their picks.


I think the Knicks trajectory, I mean, I mean, I might just be saying that to make you happy, but is more as promising as any team right now.


[Scott Seidenberg] (54:21 - 54:43)

No, I agree with that. And you and I talked about this on SOV, but when Amari Stoudemire came to the Knicks, it made them an attractive destination. They don't get Carmelo Anthony without having Amari Stoudemire.


The Knicks without Jalen Brunson would be nowhere in the conversation to land a Devin Booker or Paul George or any marquee free agent for that matter.


[Steve Fezzik] (54:43 - 54:59)

You know, when the Knicks were relevant, when the movie Wall Street was out and they're talking about Charlie Sheen's buddy, it's the 80s and he's like, don't work tonight. I promise you Knicks and likely chicks with it. Come with me to the game.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (55:00 - 55:02)

The Bernard King era, Patrick Ewing era.


[Scott Seidenberg] (55:02 - 55:24)

I apparently so. Yes. Well, the Knicks, I thought you were going to say the movie Eddie, when Whoopi Goldberg was the head coach.


They made the playoffs. Yvonne McBasket. I think the Knicks now with Jalen Brunson playing like an MVP candidate and he's going to finish top three in the voting.


You should be second in the voting. Or wait, what was the final voting? Because the MVP was announced.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (55:25 - 55:28)

A lot of people said SGA should. Shaq said SGA was robbed.


[Scott Seidenberg] (55:29 - 55:30)

So Luca finished second.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (55:31 - 55:31)



[Scott Seidenberg] (55:31 - 55:41)

OK, well, you can guard that guy right now. No, SGA finished second. Luca finished third.


Jalen Brunson finished one, two, three, four, fifth. Oh, wow. That is to me that disrespectful.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (55:42 - 55:49)

I mean, who's more valuable than when you leave the game for 20 minutes? Your team gets blown out down 20 down 15. You come back, you win easy.


[Steve Fezzik] (55:49 - 55:51)

Small sample size, but hard to argue.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (55:52 - 55:53)

Yeah, but that was a good night for it.


[Scott Seidenberg] (55:53 - 56:25)

Without Jalen Brunson, the Knicks are they don't win 50 games this year. Yeah, I mean, Giannis missed time, but Damian Lillard picked up the slack and I don't think they make the playoffs. That team stinks without him.


Yeah. So Jokic number one, obviously SGA number two. OK, I'll give you that.


Right. Luca three, maybe in like that, that he did have a stretch. Right.


Because he had a stretch for like a month and a half where he was scoring, you know, triple doubles, 40 points like he was the best player in the world for like a month and a half stretch.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (56:25 - 56:50)

Yeah. 34 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists. That's like literally video game stuff.


I'm not sure if LeBron James ever had a just simple counting stats quite that amazing. But something like 11 out of 13 years prior to this year or maybe prior to last year, the MVP had always been a number one seed in their conference. So if you want to make the SGA argument, that's that's the argument.


But I guess votes are in by the last game of the season. And that was all up in the air.


[Scott Seidenberg] (56:51 - 57:10)

Yeah. And he finished well behind. Jokic finished 926 was his total tally.


SGA was 640 next. Luca 566. Then Giannis 192.


Jalen Brunson 142. Then Jason Tatum. Then Anthony Edwards.


One person, one vote, a fifth place vote for Kevin Durant.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (57:11 - 57:12)

I don't know if he was an MVP on his team.


[Steve Fezzik] (57:13 - 57:17)

If Embiid plays 75 games, he's the MVP, right?


[Mackenzie Rivers] (57:17 - 57:20)

I mean, if he had the exact same stats. Yeah. And he was putting up ridiculous stuff.


[Scott Seidenberg] (57:20 - 57:30)

He was putting up better numbers this year than he was last year. Yeah, by a lot. Yeah, 100 percent.


So, yeah, if he if he stays healthy and he finishes the season with that stat line, with the number of games.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (57:30 - 57:35)

And if Kawhi was healthy, he'd be a seven time champion. And if Zion was healthy. That's exactly the playoff.


Some of these guys just don't aren't healthy.


[Scott Seidenberg] (57:36 - 57:46)

That's exactly the point. So I think Jalen Brunson star is certainly maybe you're right. Maybe it's more about not Jalen Brunson star rising, but the Knicks stock rising in this post.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (57:46 - 57:48)

And he gets all the credit for that.


[Steve Fezzik] (57:48 - 57:52)

Yeah, but it's going to they're going to crash and burn. We get that when they get smashed by Boston.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (57:52 - 58:02)

Yeah, I actually think I'm looking at the minus 270 Celtics. I just I can't see them lose to win the East. I can't yet to win the should be minus 27.


I can't see them losing to any of these teams remaining.


[Steve Fezzik] (58:03 - 58:11)

Yeah, and I agree. And frankly, I look at Oklahoma City and they're minus 225 in their series. It's like I can't see them losing.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (58:11 - 58:23)

I mean, I could I could see the Mavericks coming back. Luca has had a bad time with Lou Dort over the years. So did James Harden.


He's like the perfect defender for that kind of herky jerky, like wants to use it, wants to use his strength against them.


[Steve Fezzik] (58:23 - 58:25)

But Luca looks hurt. Do you agree?


[Mackenzie Rivers] (58:26 - 58:39)

I'm I mean, Jamal Murray's hurt when he misses. And Tyree Tyree's Albert has a back injury until he scores 34 points. And he doesn't have a back injury.


I'm against using playoffs to the playoffs. Everybody's banged up. You got you got to do out there.


[Steve Fezzik] (58:39 - 58:41)

You're out there. There's no excuses.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (58:41 - 58:42)

I think Luca will bounce back.


[Steve Fezzik] (58:43 - 58:53)

I think all the guys you mentioned are banged up and they are. And they might have one good game in them, but they don't have a good series. Like Hal Burton may have gone for 31, but he'll go right back to 16 to 18, I think.


[Scott Seidenberg] (58:53 - 59:12)

So series spread right now, you can take the Mavericks at plus. Let's see. Dallas plus two and a half games minus 235.


Dallas plus one and a half games is minus 120. I have to think about it.


[Steve Fezzik] (59:12 - 59:20)

You know, those are so it's so foreign to me. They markets didn't used to be what they were on those that I'm not used to pricing the plus two and a half series prices.


[Scott Seidenberg] (59:21 - 59:23)

OKC minus 230 Dallas plus 180.


[Steve Fezzik] (59:23 - 59:38)

Yeah, I look at it like Dallas would be it would take like a Herculean tremendous effort to get to a game seven. And if it goes game seven, that's what the money line is going to be. And Dallas has to like win three of the next five.


Good luck, buddy. Good luck with that.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (59:38 - 59:52)

I mean, they're only down a one. Oh, why do we think it's over? I mean, they're power rated just as good as the Thunder and they lost one game.


They got blown out pretty good. But I mean, we've seen this in the NBA playoffs for years. Teams get blow out, come back and win the game.


If I had to bet, I bet plus 180 before I bet minus 230.


[Scott Seidenberg] (59:52 - 59:57)

Because I would take the five and a half for Thursday night for game two. It's five and a half. And I was looking at five.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (59:57 - 59:59)

Yeah, I'm thinking about it. That's definitely on my radar.


[Steve Fezzik] (59:59 - 1:00:07)

See, and I maybe I'm just overreacting. Like when I saw Luca, I was like, that that guy is is done. So he's he's and he's not going to get any better.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:00:07 - 1:00:10)

You know, under his points prop in six out of seven games, he's playoff.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:00:10 - 1:00:23)

That's and he missed for three. That's that is what's the most compelling to me. You don't miss free throws if you're healthy.


Like I mean, like you should be able to shoot free throws left handed and make them if you're and make it make 80 percent of them.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:00:23 - 1:00:29)

Fez, let me ask you the adjustment on the price for the Celtics. The thirteen and a half point favorites right now. That makes sense, right?


[Steve Fezzik] (1:00:30 - 1:00:52)

That's an interesting question. So they were twelve and a half in game one. And now it's gone up by a point, even despite the zigzag.


But the idea is that while they were so dominant game one, they went by a zillion that. Yeah, it makes sense that you that that was an inadequate number. And we got we got to bump it up.


It is interesting how you can play an entire season, come up with a power rating. And they play one game and need to adjust it by point.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:00:53 - 1:01:16)

Well, Mackenzie, you and I talked about this when we compared like the regular season lines when these teams play each other. And we thought that it should have been thirteen and a half in game one. The fact that it was twelve and a half like didn't make sense, because if you looked at both the teams in the postseason, it's like one team's coming off, you know, a tough series.


One team's coming off a cruising series. And yet the line is like a little bit less than it was like in a regular season game.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:01:16 - 1:01:18)

Hall of Fame bookmakers opened at 11.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:01:19 - 1:01:30)

I think that's criminal. I think Jimmy Butler not being there kind of made it seem like, oh, of course, it's something that's going to blow out every game. But hey, they're still professionals.


They're still an NBA team. They won by 20 points a game. And we kind of just like wrote it off as what they should do.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:01:30 - 1:01:34)

I think maybe there was too much too much on the poor thing is not playing.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:01:34 - 1:01:35)

Oh, yeah.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:01:35 - 1:01:39)

People thought that that would make like that would have like a bigger impact. I don't think it has any impact.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:01:39 - 1:01:55)

Especially looks like a professional badminton player to me, especially with the big spread, because it makes the Celtics play smaller and play faster and get more threes up. So they're more likely to cover a big spread. They're actually 16 and eight and two A.T.S. without Porzingis this year. Twenty two and four straight up.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:01:56 - 1:02:10)

Oh, wow. On Friday, Minnesota and Denver will play game three. The defending champs are in a world of trouble.


They are plus 154 for game three, plus four and a half points.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:02:11 - 1:03:25)

As much as I got to interrupt. All right. I mean, I know we love Draftkings, but I can't stand Draftkings with this with this.


What's the minus? Minus four and a half. Minus 185.


So minus 185 plus 154. Scheme ask. I got to get into the bookmaking business.


So think of think about think about it's like it's it's just crazy. I'd like at a betting exchange. It's going to be like minus 172 plus 170.


And you think like, oh, it's debatable. Plus 154 minus 185 is a good bet. It's like they're both terrible.


You know, it's just like I can't get over. When did when did the bookmaker be able to deal a 33 cent straddle or whatever that is, or 31 cents when the majority of their clients are college kids to age 35 that don't care about that kind of stuff? It's true.


There's no there's no sensitivity. Like I was listening to like Vison and they're quoting like all these baseball lines. Oh, minus 140 plus 120.


And it's like baseball's had a timeline forever. You know, if you don't have it, if you can't play into a timeline in baseball and you got to lay, you know, a 20 cent differential, it's like, guess what? 90% of the time, 96% of the time, both bets are lousy on the day of the game.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:03:25 - 1:03:25)



[Steve Fezzik] (1:03:25 - 1:03:38)

But the people that are living in New Jersey don't care about that. They just bet the games. They don't.


And this whole bet responsibly. How about this? Bet responsibly.


Don't bet into a minus 185 plus 154 straddle. Sorry.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:03:39 - 1:04:47)

As much as I want to say that the defending champs are going to show some fight and plus four and a half seems like a number that I would take. I have no interest in backing Denver in this series, like no interest at all. I think Minnesota is I think Denver is done.


You know what I think about Mackenzie? Tell me if you think about this. Yeah.


Remember last year they win the championship. Okay. And they're like, you're excited for the parade.


And he goes, when is parade? And they're like, oh, it's going to be in two days. And he goes, oh, no, no, I gotta go home.


Like he wanted to go back to Serbia, right? Or he wanted to leave. Like they just won the NBA title.


And he's like tired. And he's like, all right, my job's done. Like now it's over.


They're down two games to none now. And they won the title last year. I don't want to call them fat and happy because they still had a great season this year.


But I just don't see the same fight in this Nuggets team through two games against a better opponent than I saw last year. I have no interest in backing Denver.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:04:47 - 1:05:53)

No, I like the Wolves here. I think they're the better team. And I think the Nuggets for the first time in this playoff run are going to have to play differently than they want to.


They kept playing very slow paced games. But now against this half court defense, which people are calling, and I said on the SOV, the 2004 Pistons, Bill Simmons said they might be the greatest defense or along with the greatest defenses we've ever seen in the NBA. That's 2004 Pistons, 89 Pistons, 91 Bulls, teams like that.


I mean, just man for man, they're there. So if you want to play half court like that, you're going to lose, I think. Anthony Edwards is going to get enough good buckets.


Karl-Anthony Towns is going to get enough good buckets. So do they go the other way? And you mentioned no one wanted to go home more than Nikola Jokic.


And kind of relax and play with his horses. Aaron Gordon said in the September when they all came back, I don't think Nikola Jokic touched a basketball all summer. He might not be the best conditioned athlete in the world.


He's not Ray Allen running sprints every day. He's not Jerry Rice running up the hill. I'm not sure they can play very fast.


They can play fast enough to get around this half court defense. So I do think they're going to switch up how they're playing. They're going to try to play faster.


And I don't think it's going to work. I think the Wolves cover here four and a half.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:05:53 - 1:05:56)

Do we have an announcement on Rudy Gobert? Is he going to play game three?


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:05:56 - 1:06:04)

If he doesn't play game three, he takes two games off because his daughter was born. People are killing him for taking one game off. I know he's French, but come on.


Priorities are priority.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:06:05 - 1:06:07)

Hey, he was the guy that caused the whole COVID disaster.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:06:07 - 1:06:11)

Yeah, no, he's not the most popular guy. He still has not lived that down.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:06:12 - 1:06:14)

I mean, could you just think about that? He touched all the microphones.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:06:14 - 1:06:23)

It was like a cartoon. It was like, what's the worst that could happen after he touches all these microphones and licks his hand? I mean, he rubbed all the microphones.


Oh, worldwide pandemic. Billions dead.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:06:23 - 1:06:43)

I really think if he had been like, I'm not going to I'm not going to say it, but like I'm trying to think of what like what player could have done that. And if Bobby Hurley had done that, you know, I think I kicked out of the league. He rubbed all the microphones and then tested positive for COVID.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:06:43 - 1:06:44)

The whole league shut down.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:06:46 - 1:06:47)

Not just the league, the whole world.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:06:48 - 1:06:50)

I mean, I'm not sure he could be more hated.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:06:50 - 1:06:58)

Yeah. By the way, I want to ask you guys, I want to ask you guys this. So one of the trends, what do we have a a total on the the four and a half point?


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:06:58 - 1:07:04)

And it's the total for the game is two or four and a half, which I think is kind of low for Denver, Minnesota, Indy, Indy, Indy.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:07:04 - 1:07:06)

Yes, 225 and a half.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:07:07 - 1:07:24)

OK, where I'm going moved up to six. Well, where I'm going here is interesting. So now we got about the of course, I mean, we got to make sure Brunson's OK with, you know, with with with his foot.


But game one goes over and obviously game two goes over by a zillion.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:07:24 - 1:07:24)



[Steve Fezzik] (1:07:24 - 1:07:33)

And that sets us up with a system play boys. Game three under. Let me look at the updated.


I don't think there's any hurry. We let them we let the public bet over.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:07:34 - 1:07:37)

Right. That's a good point. Mackenzie, you crunching those numbers?


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:07:38 - 1:07:54)

Yes. So this is like in game seven territory as far as far as how strong this trend is. Series game three.


Previous game was over. Previous previous game was over as a one two goes over. You switch venues.


Thirty eight percent overs. That means 62 percent unders. Wow.


Hundred thirty games in the sample.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:07:55 - 1:07:59)

We'd love to see what a two twenty six and a half. I think one full point.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:07:59 - 1:08:07)

I think I think it's going to go up two points. Who's going to bet under? Right.


After especially because I saw anyone who bet under when Brunson got it as a Friday night game.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:08:07 - 1:08:14)

It's I love that. I love people betting on Friday favorites and overs. And it's in Indiana, which is known for their high fast paced environment.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:08:15 - 1:08:24)

Date night is canceled. Be ready. Be at the Donk shop.


Be at the Golden Nugget. Is that twenty seven twenty seven and get the two twenty nine. Yeah, really?


It's maybe.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:08:24 - 1:08:35)

Yeah, I like it. I will be ready to fire. Certainly on Friday.


Wait, wait till post. Right. We wait to post the fire Friday at, you know, three fifty nine Pacific time.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:08:35 - 1:09:24)

I have a story about a post of my friend, the Midnight Cowboy professional game where I lived with him for a year at the Meridian. OK, which is on Koval and Flamingo right around there. It's right.


Right. It was right. It's right across the street from Tuscany.


OK, where the Tuscany casino is at the Tuscany. Ciao, Bella. But it's a local ad.


He talked about a game. Rice, Texas. He loved rice.


He it was his game of the year. He's like he wasn't a guy who sold his picks. He was a big better.


And he told me like, oh, we all can't wait. And so I like great, great start to their Saturday. Rice almost won.


All right. And he's like, what? I said, you're right.


You know, thirty one, twenty six. And he's like. The game's already over.


Thought it was a night game. Oh, strong. Yeah.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:09:24 - 1:09:30)

Good handicap. You can't mess that one. It's all about execution.


Fez, I understand you have a WNBA betting angle.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:09:31 - 1:10:36)

Yes. So I placed this myself. So there was a two hundred fifty dollar limit at the Westgate on my app.


But I knew they'd give me more if I showed up in person. All right. So I drove down there.


The Westgate has WNBA season win numbers. And what's fascinating about the league, it tells you basically if you've been busy, you didn't have time to do any handicap. They've done your handicap for you, Scott.


So the Aces won the championship this year. They're supposed to win like thirty two and a half games. OK, the New York Liberty are the best team in the East.


They're supposed to win like twenty nine and a half games. Connecticut's the third best team in the league. Twenty four and a half.


Every other team sucks. There's no other team that's close to being good enough to be able to win. There's but there's a few teams that are right around five hundred.


One of them being Caitlin Clark's Indiana Fever. Last year, Caitlin Clark without her. The fever went thirteen and twenty seven outscored by slightly over four points per game.


They do have they did have the number one pick the year before as well. So, you know, they're stacking number ones. What would you set there over under?


It is going to be a forty win season.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:10:37 - 1:11:07)

Wait, is it it's you you said the forty wins that they put them up? No, no, it's a four. It's a forty game.


He's forty games. He's a forty game season. I misspoke.


Yeah. And they won thirteen games last year. Yes.


And now they have Caitlin Clark. Yes. And more than half what?


Thirty eight or thirty six of their games are on national television. Yes. Everyone's up for the game.


So everyone's going to be up for their games. They'll be amped up a little bit. I would say.


Nineteen and a half. Yeah. So I play.


That's what it is. A gold star. I am.


I'm a WNBA handicap.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:11:08 - 1:12:10)

So I played. I played under twenty and a half. I thought it should be like eighteen.


Eighteen and a half. And exactly McKenzie's handicap where you know what? I'm making fifty eight thousand a year as a WNBA player.


And here comes this Prada gal making eight mil nil, you know, each and every month. We're deeing her up as hard as they can. I go back to that movie Revenge of the Nerds when John Goodman, the coach, talks to his players and he's like, you guys just got your butts kicked by a bunch of nerds.


If it was me, I'd do something about it. Meaning we saw that Holy Cross girl try to decapitate Caitlin Clark in the tournament round one. I think it's going to get real rough for this multi-millionaire gal.


And think about it. She already had to play a full season. She had to play not just the thirty plus games, but all the conventions.


Do you think that was good for conditioning to be going flying all over the country and doing all these commercials?


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:12:10 - 1:12:17)

Does the WNBA take a break for the Olympics or does it continue to go while the Olympics are being played? How does that work?


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:12:17 - 1:12:18)

Good question.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:12:18 - 1:12:20)

I'm almost sure they break.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:12:20 - 1:12:21)

They break. They take a month off.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:12:22 - 1:12:27)

Because it's a month-long break for the Olympics, I think. Well, that's what they did. That's what's been historic.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:12:28 - 1:12:29)

Yeah, July 18th to August 14th.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:12:29 - 1:12:58)

Yeah, so they'll take a break up. But the question is, is Caitlin Clark going to be on Team USA? And so I think that if she...


If Nike has anything to say about it. Yeah. So if she is on Team USA, now we're adding even more stress to her season.


So when she comes back from Paris, she might sit out a couple of games for the Fever. I don't know if they can afford to do that because she's such a big ticket item. But I don't think she's going to be as sharp as she was or as she is.


So I think it's even more of a reason to fade.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:12:58 - 1:13:35)

There's a long history of this. That the number one pick in the WNBA is nothing special when they go and play. Because think about it.


There's not 32 teams. There's only 12 teams. And so just because you're the best college player doesn't mean you're going to be able to make an impact because of such a small universe.


She'll likely be a capable starter. She's probably going to be worth, I don't know, one point to the line. And like Mackenzie mentioned, and minus two because everyone else is, this is my game of the year.


I'm not resting against when I'm playing the Fever. That's for sure.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:13:35 - 1:13:43)

They should be nice to her though. She did get the whole league chartered flights. Yeah, that's right.


She said one thing in a press conference. They got chartered flights now. So be nice to Kaitlyn Clark.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:13:43 - 1:13:55)

There are a lot of changes coming to the WNBA. Did you listen to Simmons this week or whatever? Yeah, yeah.


Ethan Strauss interview. I heard that, yeah. So it made social media, I guess, you know, Indiana Pacers.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:13:55 - 1:13:55)

Yes. Women.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:13:56 - 1:14:21)

Yeah. So what Ethan Strauss said on with Bill Simmons was that from a marketing perspective, the WNBA should have not made up new team names. They should have just been a part of the NBA club.


But the NBA owns the WNBA. And each team is, for the most part, associated with the NBA franchise. Most of them having the same owners.


Like I know some of them don't, but some, most of them have the same.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:14:21 - 1:14:22)

They could, yeah.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:14:22 - 1:14:36)

Like James Dolan owned the Knicks and Liberty forever. And then he sold the Liberty. Now it's Josiah that owns the Nets.


But like a lot of teams were owned by the same owner. So instead of having the Indiana Fever, why aren't they just the Indiana Pacers?


[Steve Fezzik] (1:14:36 - 1:14:39)

So if Sacramento gets a team, they'll be the Kings or the Queens.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:14:39 - 1:14:41)

Yeah. Like the Lady Volunteers was an example.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:14:41 - 1:14:52)

Well, now we're already doing something, but a lot of the names are so similar. Like the Mercury instead of the Phoenix Sun. It's the Phoenix Mercury.


Well, yeah.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:14:52 - 1:14:59)

Are you going to have the same? The Houston Rockets or the Houston Comets. Are you going to have the same logo on the jersey?


This way you can sell like a zillion jerseys, you know?


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:14:59 - 1:15:09)

You know who does this is European soccer teams. There's Barcelona, Arsenal. All the biggest soccer teams are male and female.


And we already do this in college sports. They also do that with the basketball teams. It's just clubs.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:15:09 - 1:15:29)

Yeah. So if, yeah, European soccer, that's a great point. European soccer does it.


But I was going to say college athletics. We do it in all college athletics. Except for, except for there's one school that doesn't.


Who's that? Louisiana Tech. Why?


The men's team is the Bulldogs. The women's team is the Lady Texters.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:15:29 - 1:15:31)

Why? Is that a dog? Can't be a Bulldog.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:15:32 - 1:15:32)

They changed that, right?


[Steve Fezzik] (1:15:33 - 1:15:45)

By the way, the Houston college football team has throwback has jerseys that look just like the throwback Oilers jerseys. So they're incorporating that idea. Just keep it Houston.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:15:45 - 1:15:49)

Yeah, the Lady Texters instead of the they're not the Lady Bulldogs.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:15:49 - 1:15:53)

Is that like some sort of derogatory? Like women text all the time and always looking at their phone?


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:15:53 - 1:16:10)

No, this is Louisiana Tech. They're the Lady Texters. No, they're texting.


They're texting all their friends. I mean, the first season was 1974. So it's way before the invention of the text message.


But I endorsed that. I endorsed the Caitlin Clark under for the WNBA. And I think he had a fever on.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:16:11 - 1:16:35)

And I did send a message to Jeff Benson saying, Jeff, I guarantee you this will be put this up for at Circa. It doesn't have to be a big limit. Also put up a Caitlin Clark over under for points per game.


I said, I guarantee you're going to write to a lots of action. And it's going to go on. And he gets he gets right back to me.


He says, he says, Steve, I forwarded it to our trading team. Nice. So I'm busy.


Leave me alone.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:16:36 - 1:16:42)

You can also make some money on. Yes, minus 310 to make the fever or no plus 220 to make the playoffs to make the playoffs for the fever to make the play.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:16:42 - 1:16:45)

Everyone makes the playoffs. There's eight playoff teams. Don't bet that.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:16:45 - 1:16:46)



[Steve Fezzik] (1:16:46 - 1:16:50)

All right. There's a lot of play. I don't know if it's eight.


I think it is.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:16:50 - 1:17:15)

So this one, I think this I think we already have a betting. I think we already have a betting angle. Thursday, May 16th is the first game of the regular season for the Indiana fever.


They are home against the New York Liberty. The Liberty, who will already have one game under their belt after playing on Tuesday, May 14th, we get a day off right now. Liberty are five and a half point favorites at Indiana.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:17:15 - 1:17:26)

Is Donahue going to breath, though? I mean, I don't the league. The league has very much of a incentive to make sure the fever don't crap out early, right?


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:17:27 - 1:17:29)

Maybe money line. Maybe maybe they'll make it close.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:17:30 - 1:17:39)

It's a good point. Maybe you bet Indiana early in the season or Indiana in the nationally televised first game, and then you fade them the rest.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:17:39 - 1:18:01)

I just I think the McKenzie nailed the road venues like like when they have to play, you know, at Seattle, they're going to get their doors blown off. Yeah. All right.


So is that a best bet for me for the pod? It is. So you can grade me at the 19 and a half, even though I hate to give an under 19 and a half when I played under 20, but it's not exactly the most liquid of all markets.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:18:01 - 1:18:06)

So you get 20 and a half minus 105 a fan door right now. Oh, yeah, that's a very public book. People are betting me over.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:18:06 - 1:18:10)

That is indeed a best bet. Thank you, Mackenzie. You have a best bet to leave the folks with.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:18:10 - 1:18:15)

Yeah, I'm going to lay it with the Timberwolves. Call me square if you want, but I think this series is moving in one direction.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:18:17 - 1:18:17)

Like the band.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:18:19 - 1:18:20)

Harry Styles, that of the century.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:18:20 - 1:19:15)

Harry Styles. All right. I'm going to give a best bet as well.


And I'm going to go to the NHL. That's right where they play hockey. And I'm going to go Dallas Stars game two coming up here tomorrow night.


They're minus 130. They lost game one at home in just crushing fashion, blowing a three nothing lead to the Colorado Avalanche. And I know they're coming off the game seven against the Knights, which is why I didn't like them in game one.


I love Colorado in game one because of the stars coming off the game seven. But home team with home ice advantage dropped game one at home. They will not blow another three nothing lead because they saw it happen.


Now they know it can happen. And now they will take extra steps to make sure it doesn't happen. So I like Dallas to rebound and even up the series at a game of peace.


Dallas minus 130 game two on the ice tomorrow night.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:19:16 - 1:19:44)

Fez. This is a good question for your hockey. Both game sevens.


I think they're only two of them went way, way under the Golden Knights, Dallas and Boston, Toronto. Shocker. Toronto loses again.


All the Canadian fans, and it really is unfair. They never win, and they have the best fans in the world, and they never win in these. And it's kind of funny.


And the two Canadian teams left are playing each other. So one of them is going to get eliminated. One of them's got to advance.


Then game seven just blindly play every game seven under.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:19:44 - 1:20:33)

Absolutely. Blindly play every game seven under for sure. It's just they play tight.


No one wants to make the mistake. And then also, I think there are live betting advantages in this postseason. When you see a game that heads to the third period tied at 11 or 22, okay, that third period, there ain't gonna be any goals.


Do they adjust the line to make it like less than a third of the total? No, because the empty netters come into play. Okay.


And so, but what we're seeing. If it's tied, they make it one and three quarters, right? Yes.


So what you see, if it's 2-2, they'll make the total be five and a half, like shaded to the over, because they figure one team takes the lead and then adds the empty netter. They're not banking on a 3-3 overtime. They're banking on a 4-2 final.


But I think more times than not, you're going to see those games stay at 2-2.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:20:33 - 1:20:45)

By contrast, if it was 3-1, you would love nothing more than to play an over one and a half later than 60. Yeah, because you could get no scoring for the first 17 minutes and still get there with two goals.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:20:45 - 1:21:20)

Absolutely. And you can get empty netters and you can get, and then if the other team comes back and tie it, you're golden anyway. So you love that.


You love that situation. What I did see is, we talked about the NBA playoffs not being competitive. The first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs had, I think it was every game was decided by, or it was whatever percentage it was, over 77% of the games were all one goal games or two goal games where it was an empty netter that led to the two goal win.


This has been the most competitive first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs that we've seen in years.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:21:21 - 1:21:30)

Exact opposite in the NBA. Whoever's up 10 and a half wins by 30. Yeah, more of the same, Mott's.


Yes. Other than the Knicks game, but that's because, tonight, but that's because Brunson got hurt.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:21:30 - 1:22:32)

Yeah, which is why I do like, you know, the Stars to even up the series at minus 130. And I do think that, yes, you'll have situations where 2-2 game at the end of two, I think it's 2-2 going into overtime. Like no one's making a mistake.


No one, it's going to be a lot. It's a lot of neutrals on play. It's a lot of dumping.


It's a lot of, you know, being cautious with the puck, unless you're the Rangers and you're sloppy with the puck and you turn it over and lead the goals. But then you just win in overtime. But then you just win in overtime.


Exactly. By the way, there's a lot of controversy surrounding that, but I will credit Rod the head coach of the Carolina Hurricanes. Didn't say anything about the officials after the game.


That is, to me, class act right there. I know that. And you're sitting on a Rangers futures ticket.


Yes. Yeah. But to me, and as a Ranger fan, as a Ranger investor, like, I love the penalty call.


And my take, and this is what I said on SOB yesterday, we as fans love to complain, oh, the refs need to use their judgment. How could you make that call at this moment of the game? Right?




[Steve Fezzik] (1:22:32 - 1:22:33)

I largely agree with that.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:22:33 - 1:22:45)

Or in the playoffs, how could you make this call? But I disagree, because how many times are we saying it on the other side, where it's like, you know what, if it's a foul in the first quarter, it should be a foul in the fourth Right.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:22:45 - 1:22:48)

It's like, whatever you wanted to happen, that's what are the two arguments you made?


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:22:48 - 1:22:54)

If it's a penalty in the regular season, it should be a penalty in the playoff. If it's a foul in the first quarter, it should be a foul in the fourth quarter.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:22:54 - 1:22:55)

No, that's stupid.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:22:55 - 1:23:01)

You want them to call the game as straight as they can. Don't make up the rules as you go.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:23:01 - 1:23:23)

No, the rules are clear cut. The fouls have to be more significant to be called at the end of a game. Just like when you're a batter, when you play baseball, when you're a batter and that pitch comes in and it's one inch low and they call strike on the first pitch, it's no big deal.


But when they ring you up on a 2-2 pitch in the same spot, that's criminal. You can't call strike three unless you are sure.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:23:23 - 1:23:25)

If the robot showed it was a strike, then it was a strike.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:23:25 - 1:23:35)

But you know what I'm saying? Unless as a ref, as an ump, you have to, if I do share responsibility to that batter, that you cannot ring them up on a borderline pitch that you don't know if it's a ball or strike.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:23:35 - 1:23:49)

Also, sometimes I get frustrated. Sometimes I get frustrated about the 3-0 automatic strike where it's like. They don't even look at the ball.


They don't even look at it. It's like, oh, it's close enough. It's a strike.


What do you mean? Like, no, it's a ball four. The guy walked.


Here's where I disagree. If that was the first pitch of the at-bat, he walks.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:23:49 - 1:23:58)

Like the Miles Turner play that got so much controversy. If that guy's doing it every single time down court, then maybe in the second quarter, you call him on it because it's close and you're like, you know, stop doing it.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:23:58 - 1:24:00)

In other words, you're calling one sixth of the foul.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:24:00 - 1:24:01)



[Steve Fezzik] (1:24:01 - 1:24:11)

Can't just keep like slightly mugging a guy. You got it. You got it.


Yeah. But it's not a foul. It's not a foul.


10 seconds to go. Yeah. Same thing if a guy slightly travels like seven strikes.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:24:11 - 1:24:12)

Eventually you're like, stop it.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:24:12 - 1:24:14)

I'll call one of them, you know, and so like, hey, you know.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:24:14 - 1:24:17)

I also think reputation comes into it too.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:24:17 - 1:24:28)

If you're a player that's getting penalized a lot, that's getting, you know, you're a Imagine if they called a foul on MJ when the Utah player flopped. Yeah. I mean, of course he pushed off.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:24:28 - 1:24:37)

Reputation matters. Isaiah Hartenstein had to dribble the ball up the court. They called a double dribble and then they spoke to each other.


Like it wasn't a double dribble. It's just weird to see a center dribbling five times in a row.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:24:37 - 1:24:56)

You know, one of the best examples in the original longest yard after they nailed the linebacker twice in the groin and it was third and 38 and like, and they, and they completed a 40 yard pass. And you don't, the guard was screaming. He pushed off.


He pushed off. Of course he pushed off. You don't get that call in a prison game with the game on the line.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:24:56 - 1:25:00)

Right. Well, uh, two, two nights in a row, New York teams benefit from late whistles.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:25:00 - 1:25:03)

Yeah. Rick Carlisle, by the way, not handling it like the Carolina coach.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:25:03 - 1:25:14)

No, no, he went off. Rod Brindamore did not. But Hey, Rangers deadly power play scored and they won an overtime and now they're up to a Carolina a minus one 70 favorite.


Do you get a Canadian?


[Steve Fezzik] (1:25:14 - 1:25:20)

Do you get a Canadian team? If you win, do I get a Canadian team? Yeah.


The Rangers. I don't know who's in what conference.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:25:20 - 1:25:49)

No, no, the rain, the rain, the winner of the Rangers hurricanes will play the winner of the Panthers Bruins series in the West. It's Edmonton, Vancouver, and Colorado Dallas. Ooh.


So do you like Colorado or Dallas to go to the finals? Well, I, I, I said Dallas from the get go. Remember I said the winner of the Dallas Vegas series goes to the cup.


So I'm riding Dallas and with them losing game one after blowing a three, nothing lead. That's my best bet riding them in game two minus one 30. All right.


Enough with the hockey baseball.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:25:49 - 1:26:06)

I want one team. I don't, I'm, I'm a pessimist at heart with baseball. I don't, I don't want anyone to bet on.


I want to know a team I can bet against every game the rest of the year or the wind total. Yeah. Either for the wind total or just a team I can fade the rest of the year.


Okay. It's not going to be any good.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:26:07 - 1:26:30)

So the hardest schedule remaining in major league baseball, and this changes because teams will change belongs to the Tampa Bay race. Tampa Bay rays have the most difficult strength of schedule remaining right now. Lost to the white socks.


That's their easiest. This was their easiest game. They had Sevalia pitching tonight.


Right now they are 19 and 19 on the season. They're going to finish below 500.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:26:30 - 1:26:31)

I know where you're going.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:26:32 - 1:26:44)

Yes. And their season win number is, let's see what the updated number is. I don't think it's been updated, but I know it's right around 81.


Yeah. It's right around 500. Last time I checked, it was right around 500, but I don't see, uh, let's see team futures.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:26:44 - 1:26:46)

And that division is so good.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:26:46 - 1:27:15)

That's what I'm saying. The Orioles are so good. The Yankees are so good.


They in Boston are going to get their butts kicked and they have, they have to play a series against not only do they have to play the East, which makes it difficult because you have to play the Yankees and Orioles, but they still have to play, um, teams in the National League East. They have to play the Braves. They have to play the Phillies.


They have to play the Dodgers. Like this is a very hard schedule left for Tampa. So I will be looking at Tampa under conversely.


I know you and I talked about Fez, the Dodgers to finish the National League with the most wins.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:27:16 - 1:27:44)

Yes. And I just, I, I just went crazy. Uh, net Dodgers are plus money to be the number one seed and the National League plus 115 Caesars.


I just bet that today. Uh, I like the Dodgers over 103 wins. I like the Dodgers.


I don't explain this line to me. The Dodgers preflop number was one Oh four. And then there was concerns of a little bit about Otani because he gambled on all those games.


Oh, his friend did. Um, but now they've won two thirds of the games. That's like they're on pace to win 108.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:27:44 - 1:28:04)

Otani is hitting 370 and they're getting better. Bueller's back. Bueller's back.


Kershaw starting a rehab assignment. Dustin May will start a rehab assignment. So they're getting pitchers back.


And if you look at the strength of schedule, the easiest remaining strength of schedule over the next 123 games and their division, the division sucks.


[Steve Fezzik] (1:28:04 - 1:28:16)

The Giants, the Padres and Arizona are all down in Colorado. They, they may, they might be worse than Oakland was last year. Colorado might win under 50 games this year.


They are truly atrocious.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:28:17 - 1:28:21)

So yes, I co-signed that bet. Dodgers to finish with the most wins in the National League.


[Mackenzie Rivers] (1:28:21 - 1:28:22)

Yeah, you can bet me. I'm taking that.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:28:22 - 1:28:41)

Yeah, that is a bet that I was at plus 115. That is a, that is, that is a pod consensus. Best bet.


How often are you going to get plus money in something that's sure to win? Yes. And my Juan Soto plus 600 MVP ticket.


Now down to plus 200. He is the favorite in the MVP in the American League.

  NFL NBA Scott Seidenberg Steve Fezzik DreamPod A.J. Hoffman

[Steve Fezzik] (1:28:41 - 1:28:43)

All right. Excellent. So very happy that stopped homering.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:28:43 - 1:30:05)

Very happy about that. Is Ohtani minus money yet? I didn't wasn't listening.


Bets is plus 170. Ohtani plus 330. I guess he doesn't pitch this year.


So he doesn't know. Exactly. And then Acuna next at plus 1200.


Then De La Cruz plus 1500. So it's right now. Bets and Ohtani are leading the way.


One, two in your lineup. Pretty good. Exactly.


All right. Good pod tonight, guys. Like I said earlier with A.J. Hoffman next week, the NFL schedule comes out on Wednesday night. So I'm not sure we'll see what RJ wants to do, whether we do the pod on Wednesday night or maybe we do it on Thursday and we wait for the openers to come out game of the year lines and start hammering that kind of stuff and then recap it on Thursday. But we'll see what RJ wants to do, because it'll come out eight o'clock Eastern time. But you know what happens with these things like the media leaks it during the day.


So we might even have some stuff out well before we even plan to record next Wednesday. So we'll wait and see. But we'll make an announcement.


We'll put it out on Twitter and then you'll get the pod delivered right to you. A full breakdown of the NFL schedule. So a massive dream pod next week as we break down the NFL schedule release from Mackenzie Rivers, A.J. Hoffman, who joined us, Steve Fezzik and RJ Bell not here. I'm Scott Seidenberg. Fezz, take us out. Hey.




[Steve Fezzik] (1:30:05 - 1:30:06)

Be careful out there.


[Scott Seidenberg] (1:30:07 - 1:30:08)

See you next week.

  • "Bet Smart, Win Big: Your Expert Edge in Sports Betting" "Edge Out the Competition: Pro Tips for Pro Bettors" "Unlock the Odds: Bet with Confidence and Precision" "Play the Odds, Rule the Game"

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